Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Valerie Kozel Author-X-Name-First: Valerie Author-X-Name-Last: Kozel Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank and International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C. Author-Name: Harold Alderman Author-X-Name-First: Harold Author-X-Name-Last: Alderman Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank and International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C. Title: Factors Determining Work Participation and Labour Supply Decisions in Pakistan's Urban Areas Abstract: Labour force participation in Pakistan, even amongst prime-aged males, is lower than observed in many similar countries. The analysis of labour force participation in urban Pakistan in this paper indicates that systematic factors explain a fair amount of this participation. The extended family structure as well as the availability of remittances allow younger, educated males to extend their job search. Using tobit and probit estimation techniques, the study found that labour supply is explained primarily by participation as opposed to hours worked conditional upon participation. The study also found that the rise in wages attributed to education is fairly high and similar to what was found in Pakistan in the late 1970s. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1-18 Volume: 29 Issue: 1 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume1/1-18.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:1:p:1-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Akhtar Hossain Author-X-Name-First: Akhtar Author-X-Name-Last: Hossain Author-Workplace-Name: Newcastle University, Australia. Title: The Monetarist versus the Neo-Keynesian Views on the Acceleration of Inflation: Some Evidence from South Asian Countries (with Special Emphasis on Pakistan) Abstract: This paper tests the monetarist versus the neo-Keynesian views on the acceleration of inflation, using annual data for Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka (mostly) for the period 1961—88, within the framework of the theoretical model of Stein (1978, 1982). The empirical results consistently support the monetarist view that changes in real money balances contribute to an acceleration of inflation. Another important finding is that except for Bangladesh, contrary to the neo-Keynesian view, bond-financed government expenditure does not have an independent significant effect on the acceleration of inflation. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 19-32 Volume: 29 Issue: 1 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume1/19-32.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:1:p:19-32 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Aslam Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Aslam Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A. Author-Name: Robert A. Young Author-X-Name-First: Robert A. Author-X-Name-Last: Young Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, U.S.A. Title: Privatizing Public Irrigation Tubewells in Pakistan: An Appraisal of Alternatives Abstract: As part of its broader groundwater privatization programme, the Government of Pakistan is seeking to transfer to the private sector the management, operation, and maintenance functions of the system of public tubewells (called "SCARPs") which were installed to control waterlogging and salinity. This paper presents a micro level analysis of alternative privatization strategies. linear programming models of representative farms in SCARP I area of Punjab Province were developed to explore the efficiency and equity implications of various transition options. Net benefits of supplemental water available from SCARP tubewells were estimated at about Rs 800 per acre, which are about three times higher than the existing level of O&M expenditure. Even without considering the long-term benefits of waterlogging control, this result implies that the SCARP programme has a high social rate of return. For particular SCARP tubewells which are uneconomical to repair and operate, replacing these tubewells with farmer-owned small tubewells appears likely to improve agricultural productivity and reduce government outlays. Operable SCARP tubewells should be kept in service unless they are replaced by equal or greater alternative pumping capacity in the private sector to prevent waterlogging. Rural institutions should be strengthened to ensure efficient local level groundwater management. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 33-58 Volume: 29 Issue: 1 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume1/33-58.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:1:p:33-58 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alain Lefebvre Author-X-Name-First: Alain Author-X-Name-Last: Lefebvre Author-Workplace-Name: Centre for Development Research in Copenhagen. Title: International Labour Migration from Two Pakistani Villages with Different Forms of Agriculture Abstract: This paper is an analysis of the socio-economic situation of two Punjabi villages. It makes an attempt to explain why the villagers of these rural places have to seek work abroad. The first part of the paper deals with the agricultural conditions, the non-agricultural activities available to the villagers, and the budgets of different social categories found in the villages. The second part examines the effects of the process of migration on the young people. It particularly discusses the profile of the migrant, the problems faced by him before his departure, the remittances and their utilization, and the impact of emigration upon women's economic role in the villages and upon the traditional social conflicts. The important conclusion of the paper is that these villagers cannot ensure their social, economic, and cultural reproduction. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 59-90 Volume: 29 Issue: 1 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume1/59-90.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:1:p:59-90 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad. Title: Land Agglomeration under Changing Technology: Some Inferences from Pakistan Abstract: The paper studies the intertemporal trend of land distribution with a view to checking the legitimacy of the thesis that land distribution deteriorated under the Green Revolution in Pakistan by examining the arguments given in support of this thesis. The empirical evidence cited in this study indicates that land distribution in Pakistan either improved (as from 1960 to 1972) or remained unchanged (as between 1972 and 1980). This trend in land distribution serves to show that technological changes were accompanied by significant improvements in land distribution between 1960 and 1980. Large increases in the ownership area of small farmers between 1972 and 1980 vis-a-vis the decreases in the ownership area of large farmers during the same period render untenable the view that Green Revolution led to a worsening of land distribution because of land purchases by large farmers. Substantial gains in the operational area of large farmers, due either to large areas of land rented in or to increased self-cultivation, appear to be unlikely in view of the continued and rising dependence of those farmers on tenants. Favourable changes in the distribution of ownership and operational holdings seem to be the result of the widespread impact of Green Revolution on the profitability of agriculture, growing labour* scarcities, land reforms, inheritance laws, and the general trends in the economic development of Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 111-122 Volume: 29 Issue: 2 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume2/111-122.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:2:p:111-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad. Title: The Substitutability of Emigrants and Non-migrants in the Construction Sector of Pakistan Abstract: To predict the impact of emigration on labour displacement and factor rewards, a translogarithmic production function has been used. The estimation determined that unskilled emigrants and skilled and unskilled non-migrants have a complementarity with capital. While skilled emigrants and capital are substitutes, they are complementary with unskilled non-migrants. Based on these results, the model predicts displacement of unskilled non-migrants in the short run. Long-run predictions include an increase in wages of all kinds of workers and the adoption of capital-intensive techniques. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 123-136 Volume: 29 Issue: 2 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume2/123-136.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:2:p:123-136 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aisha Ghaus Author-X-Name-First: Aisha Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz A. Author-X-Name-Last: Pasha Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title: Magnitude of the Housing Shortage in Pakistan Abstract: This paper analyses trends in housing conditions in Pakistan. Various indicators of housing consumption like household size, persons per room, real rents per capita, etc., are quantified for the period from 1960 to 1980, and their apparently contradictory signals are highlighted. It is demonstrated that the approach adopted to date in Pakistan to quantify the magnitude of the housing shortage is too simplistic and could lead to wrong conclusions. As such, an alternative methodology is developed which highlights a significant improvement in housing conditions over time and a relatively slow growth in the housing shortage. A series of policy implications are then derived for the development of the housing sector. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 137-153 Volume: 29 Issue: 2 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume2/137-153.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:2:p:137-153 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nadeem A. Burney Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem A. Author-X-Name-Last: Burney Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad. Author-Name: Naeem Akhtar Author-X-Name-First: Naeem Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Islamabad. Title: Fuel Demand Elasticities in Pakistan: An Analysis of Households' Expenditure on Fuels using Micro Data Abstract: This study aims to examine the pattern of households' expenditure on fuel consumption in Pakistan using the data of Household Income and Expenditure Survey (1984-85). Price and income elasticities have been estimated by applying the Extended Linear Expenditure System. It is found that the expenditure pattern of the rural households is different from the urban households, with the rural households spending proportionately more on fuels. The estimates of the income elasticities imply that all fuels are a necessity for both urban and rural households. The price elasticities of different fuels are found to be extremely low, implying that the consumption of fuels in Pakistan is highly price inelastic. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 155-174 Volume: 29 Issue: 2 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume2/155-174.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:2:p:155-174 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: William E. James Author-X-Name-First: William E. Author-X-Name-Last: James Author-Workplace-Name: Resource Systems Institute, East-West Center. Author-Name: Seiji Naya Author-X-Name-First: Seiji Author-X-Name-Last: Naya Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Hawaii, USA. Title: Trade and Industrialization Policies for an Accelerated Development in Pakistan Abstract: Pakistan achieved high rates of economic growth from the mid-1970s. Growth was faciitated by the external circumstances that relaxed the balance-of-payments constraints. However, growth was not accompanied by an improved social development Moreover, as the external circumstances worsened, the underlying macro-economic imbalances emerged and the growth slowed down. The paper assesses how the domestic and international economic policies might be adjusted to attain a more sustainable pattern of development. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 201-222 Volume: 29 Issue: 3 and 4 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume3-4/201-222.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:3-4:p:201-222 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Soofia Mumtaz Author-X-Name-First: Soofia Author-X-Name-Last: Mumtaz Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Dynamics of Changing Ethnic Boundaries: A Case Study of Karachi Abstract: Contrary to expectation, and the generally accepted belief that ethnicity defines one's primordial indentity and is, therefore, relevant and functional only in a pre-modem context, the phenomenon of ethnicity has surfaced in the modern world as a force more vital than class conflict and a source more pertinent to resolving perceived inequalities and thereby affecting desired social change. This paper examines the ethnic garb assumed by the uprisings and armed conflicts currently ravaging Karachi. The examination is undertaken within the framework of Hannan's model of the dynamics of interactions between the centre and the periphery (as based on Barth's niche theory). The paper, thus, seeks to understand the conditions which caused the definition, reinforcement, and functional relevance of ethnic boundaries, as well as the consequent salience of the phenomenon in the modem urban context. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 223-248 Volume: 29 Issue: 3 and 4 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume3-4/223-248.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:3-4:p:223-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Moazam Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Moazam Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Change in Land Distribution in the Punjab — Empirical Application of an Exogenous-endogenous Model for Agrarian Sector Analysis Abstract: Agrarian South Asia is undergoing significant technical and structural change. The debate on the direction of the change in the agrarian structure has been somewhat myopic. The neoclassical and Chayanovian schools argue that the land distribution is not worsening to eliminate the middle owner group of the peasantry. The Marxist and structuralist schools argue, in complete contrast, that polarisation of the land distribution is rapidly eliminating the middle group of the peasantry. This study attempts to broaden the existing dichotomous framework. An agrarian sector - and by analogy all agrarian sectors - cannot be assumed to be homogenous in the production conditions and, therefore, in the direction of change. To capture regional differentials, a theoretical exogenous-endogenous model is specified for agrarian sector analysis. Factors exogenous to a region are used to explain homogeneity in the change between regions. Factors endogenous to specific regions are used to explain differentials in the change between regions. This exogenous-endogenous model is used to predict the direction of agrarian change in the two major regions of the Punjab, i.e., the canal colonies and the South-West The model predicts an increase in the concentration of operated area in the canal colonies but a constancy in this concentration in the South-West Empirical analysis of representative villages from each region confirms these predictions as well as the usefulness of the model. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 249-289 Volume: 29 Issue: 3 and 4 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume3-4/249-289.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:3-4:p:249-289 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Jamil Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: M. Jamil Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: University of Balochistan, Quetta. Title: The Adoption of Tubewell Technology in Pakistan Abstract: The use and adoption of indivisible technology are not restricted by ownership or class structure. We have found, however, that in 1972,-and still in 1980, though tubewells were owned by a minor fraction of total farm households (and predominantly by the large and medium farmers), they were used by a substantial proportion of farm households. Predictably, the user-owner ratio was the highest in the case of the small farmers in all provinces. The relative importance of the small and medium farmers as owners of this technology increased over the period, particularly in the Punjab where tubewells are concentrated. The development of a hire market in tubewell services has given birth to a new entrepreneurial class in the rural areas. Inequalities in rural income are dwindling and benefits emanating from new technology are shared. These conclusions are of vital importance because they negate the existing views and show that CO the indivisibility of technology has not been a barrier to its adoption, and that (ii) the fact that the share of the small and medium farmers in the ownership of tubewells has increased gives support to the thesis that if a technology is profitable, farmers will adopt it where possible. Thus, the view that small farmers are conservative and resist change can no longer be sustained. Further, it shows that the small and medium farm sector, in particular, holds the potential for investment in technology. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 291-303 Volume: 29 Issue: 3 and 4 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume3-4/291-303.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:3-4:p:291-303 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mubarik Ali Author-X-Name-First: Mubarik Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Chemonics International, Economic Analysis Network project, Islamabad. Title: The Price Response of Major Crops in Pakistan: An Application of the Simultaneous Equation Model Abstract: This paper specifies a model to simultaneously estimate the price response, assuming an interdependence among crops. The model is applied to estimate own-and cross-price elasticities of five major crops in Pakistan, viz., wheat, cotton, rice, sugarcane, and maize based on the production and expected wholesale-price data for the period 1957-86. The study found little potential to enhance overall agricultural productivity by increasing the single crop price, since either the own-price elasticities were low or, otherwise, the nagative cross-price effects on the production of other crops were high. However, a 10-percent systematic improvement in terms of trade for agriculture will increase overall agricultural productivity by about 6 percent in the long run. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 305-325 Volume: 29 Issue: 3 and 4 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume3-4/305-325.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:3-4:p:305-325 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Krishna R. Akkina Author-X-Name-First: Krishna R. Author-X-Name-Last: Akkina Author-Workplace-Name: Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas. Title: Output-inflation Trade-offs: The Latin American Experience Abstract: This paper investigates the natural rate hypothesis, using the Lucas and Hanson approaches for ten Latin American countries. The purpose of using two methods to test this hypothesis is to ascertain the robustness of the results to the underlying differences in the assumptions of these methods. The evidence strongly supports the natural rate hypothesis and the predictions of the Lucas model. The results of the Hanson method are in general consistent with the natural rate hypothesis, but they are not as conclusive as the results of the Lucas method. The evidence from the Hanson model suggests that the monetary growth predicted by past inflation performs better than the one predicted by past monetary growth. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 327-344 Volume: 29 Issue: 3 and 4 Year: 1990 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1990/Volume3-4/327-344.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:29:y:1990:i:3-4:p:327-344