Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry
Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar
Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Recent Input-Output Price Policy in Pakistan's Agriculture: Effects on Producers and Consumers
Abstract: The paper analyses the impact of the input-output price policy in agriculture on
producers and consumers. Trends in prices cause immense resource transfers from agriculture,
with adverse consequences for investment, output, employment, and income
distribution. To the extent that these transfers accrue to industrialists and the government,
the poorest benefit the least. These deleterious effects can be minimised by
assured world prices for agriculture and restoration of true competition in agricultural
commodity and input markets. In agricultural input markets, elimination of corruption;
excessive profiteering and overstaffing should serve as the basis of a cost reduction strategy
and removal of input subsidies. In the specific case of irrigation water, equitable
distribution, compatibility of water rate assessment and water supply bases, and elimination
of overstaffing are the prime issues deserving immediate government attention.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1-23
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume1/1-23.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:1:p:1-23

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ehsan Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Ehsan
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA.
Author-Name: J. Barkley Rosser, Jr.
Author-X-Name-First: J. Barkley
Author-X-Name-Last: Rosser, Jr.
Author-Workplace-Name: James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA, USA.
Title: Non-linear Speculative Bubbles in the Pakistani Stock Market
Abstract: Since 1987 many stock markets of the world have experienced volatility. This has
been true of many emerging stock markets. Our study of daily stock market data from
Pakistan between June 1987 and May 1993 finds the results to be consistent with the
impression of great volatility and unpredictability thought to be common in such emerging
markets. We used the VAR technique to estimate a "presumed" fundamental on
stock indices using lagged first differences of natural logs of daily exchange rates and
stock indices. We used the Hamilton switching model and associated Walk test to see if
such speculative trends were present. We were significantly unable to rule them out. We
then tested for ARCH effects, whose presence we failed to reject. We then used ARCHgenerated
residuals to apply the BDS test of general non-linear structure. We failed to
reject the lack of such non-linear structure quite significantly. Thus, the Pakistani stock
market during the period of study seems to have exhibited quite complex dynamics,
along with apparently strong trends that may indicate the presence of speculative
bubbles. This has many important implications for Pakistani as well as other emerging
markets.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 25-41
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume1/25-41.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:1:p:25-41

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Shaukat Ali
Author-X-Name-First: M. Shaukat
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali
Author-Workplace-Name: The Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad.
Title: Poverty Assessment: Pakistan's Case
Abstract: This study is an attempt to determine the poverty-line and the incidence of poverty
in Pakistan by using data of the latest Household Integrated Economic Survey: 1990-91.
The study uses a different approach and methodology in respect of earlier studies of the
subject. The approach is that of the "Basic Needs", which defines the poverty-line in
terms of minimum expenditure on all needs, food as well as non-food. The methodology
used in estimating the minimum expenditure on various needs is based on the "Extended
Linear Expenditure System (ELES)". For the year under review, the total poverty-line
was estimated at Rs 374 per capita per month, with the food poverty-line at Rs 191. A
comparison with the income levels reported in the Survey revealed that roughly 47
percent population had an income less than this threshold level expenditure on all needs,
the shortfall or gap being almost 25 percent. The proportion of population with an
income less than the threshold expenditure on food alone was found to be 10 percent. In
certain respects, the results were quite different, quantitatively as well as qualitatively,
from those of the earlier studies.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 43-54
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume1/43-54.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:1:p:43-54

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid Zangeneh
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid
Author-X-Name-Last: Zangeneh
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Widener University, Chester, Pennsylvania, USA.
Title: A Macroeconomic Model of an Interest-free System
Abstract: A number of economic models have been designed to evaluate and analyse the
Islamic banking system. However, less attention has been paid to macro model-building
in an Islamic framework even though most of the Keynesian, Classical, and Neo-classical
economic systems are compatible with the tenets of Islamic economics. In this paper
an interest-free economic system is formulated in terms of the familiar Neo-classical
macroeconomics models. Even though the rules of conduct for Muslims in an Islamic
economic system are different from those in the non-Islamic economic systems, it is
shown that the Islamic economic system does exhibit properties that are consistent,
reasonable, and familiar. For example, under some reasonable simplifying assumptions,
the model shows that savings and investment do not necessarily have to fall because of
the institution of an Islamic economic system, as some economists suggest. These
depend on the rate of return on mudarabah investment, just as they depend on the rate of
return on investment (profits) in a credit-based economic system. These could be higher,
lower, or remain the same relative to their levels in a credit-based economy under different
conditions. The model also shows the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the
rate of inflation, the rate of return on mudarabah, and therefore on the investment
demand. The model shows that, in general, an economic system based on Islamic principles
is viable; it also provides unique solutions for income, employment, and prices.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 55-68
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume1/55-68.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:1:p:55-68

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hema Wijewardena
Author-X-Name-First: Hema
Author-X-Name-Last: Wijewardena
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Accountancy, University of Wollongong, Australia.
Title: Relative Profitability of Multinational Enterprises in a Developing Host Country: The Sri Lankan Experience
Abstract: Empirical evidence on the profitability of multinational enterprises vis-a-vis local
firms in developing countries appears to be sparse and contradictory. This paper attempts
to shed some light on this aspect through an analysis of the balance sheet data of a sample
of manufacturing firms in Sri Lanka. The analysis does not support the generally-held
view that multinational enterprises are more profitable than their local counterparts. It
suggests that profitability cannot be explained by either origin (MNE/local firm) or sector,
or age.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 69-79
Volume: 34
Issue: 1
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume1/69-79.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:1:p:69-79

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ruhul Amin
Author-X-Name-First: Ruhul
Author-X-Name-Last: Amin
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Urban Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Author-Name: Robert B. Hill
Author-X-Name-First: Robert B.
Author-X-Name-Last: Hill
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Urban Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Author-Name: Yiping Li
Author-X-Name-First: Yiping
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Urban Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Title: Poor Women's Participation in Credit-based Self-employment: The Impact on their Empowerment, Fertility, Contraceptive Use, and Fertility Desire in Rural Bangladesh
Abstract: By analysing a 1992 national level household sample survey data collected from
the female recipients of collateral-free loans of three relatively large rural development
agencies in Bangladesh—GB, BRAC, and BRDB—the present study shows that the participation
in income-generating projects by poor rural women had been associated with
their increased level of contraceptive use, decreased level of fertility, elevated level of
desire for no more children, and enhanced level of empowerment. Some of these effects
were much higher than those of the corresponding levels for Bangladesh as a whole,
indicating the possible additional effect of income-generating projects as well as the
effects of their population-education components. The implications of these findings for
an integrated development strategy in Bangladesh are discussed.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 93-119
Volume: 34
Issue: 2
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume2/93-119.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:2:p:93-119

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: S. Parasuraman
Author-X-Name-First: S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Parasuraman
Author-Workplace-Name: Tata Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi, India.
Title: Economic Marginalisation of Peasants and Fishermen Due to Urban Expansion: The JNP Project of New Bombay, India
Abstract: The Central and State Governments in India have actively intervened in redefining
land use pattern, often to the detriment of the peasant cultivators. In most situations, the
real beneficiaries were the speculators, developers, builders, bureaucrats, and the planning
and executing body. The case of New Bombay is a classic example of state intervention
that completely redefined the relationship between land and peasant-cultivators.
The New Bombay project acquired large amounts of agricultural and saltpan land from
peasants in 95 villages for meagre cash compensation. The objective of the paper is to
trace the origin of the idea—for the creation of New Bombay and a port to attract people
and industry so as to decongest Bombay—and assess the condition of peasants who had
lost land to the project. The study shows that the port, like most other modern industrial
projects, seriously undermined the economic position of a large number of households.
The small and marginal farmers and the fishermen were seriously affected due to others'
land acquisition and their own loss of access to the sea, as well as denial of employment
in the project. The project also failed to assess the skills and capacities of the affected
people and facilitate them to engage in alternative productive activities. Women were
productively engaged in agriculture, saltpan- and fishing-related activities in the affected
villages. The loss of land and access to the sea have led to a greater degree of pauperisation
of women, and increasingly confined them to the margins of the labour market.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 121-138
Volume: 34
Issue: 2
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume2/121-138.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:2:p:121-138

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Haroon Jamal
Author-X-Name-First: Haroon
Author-X-Name-Last: Jamal
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi.
Title: Explanation of Off-farm Work Participation in Rural Pakistan
Abstract: The role of off-farm employment in augmenting household farm income in the
developing countries is of special significance, given the land and water resource
constraints and the alarming, rate of population growth. This study focuses on the rural
household in Pakistan in an effort to understand the economic and social factors that
affect off-farm work participation of male household members in the rural areas. The
data are derived from the cross-section survey carried out by the International Food
Policy Research Institute for the year 1986-87 as a panel study of rural households. The
parameters of the model are estimated using the standard maximum likelihood Tobit
approach. Most of the results are consistent with the findings in other developing countries.
The results confirm that the level of human capital plays an important role in
making decisions providing for labour in off-farm work activities. The study also highlights
the fact that farm-to-market roads and village electrification are some of the development
strategies vital to encourage participation in off-farm work.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 139-148
Volume: 34
Issue: 2
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume2/139-148.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:2:p:139-148

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nuzhat Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Nuzhat
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi.
Title: Choice of Mode for the Worktrip in a Third World City: Karachi
Abstract: The paper is an analysis of the demand for different travel modes in the city of
Karachi. The model analyses the probability that an individual makes a certain choice as
a function of the mode characteristics and transport system and the socio-economic characteristics
of the individual traveller. The analysis focuses on the worktrip. The model
used is the disaggregated probabilistic choice and it is estimated through the maximum
likelihood multinomial logit technique. The data for the analysis comes from a sample of
5696 workers in the city of Karachi.
The main determinants of the mode choice analysed are: transport-related characteristics
(travel time, official transport, shared transport, peak-hour travel) and socioeconomic
characteristics (number of dependents, income, head-of-households status, sex,
type of occupation). The results show that the overall model is robust and has high
prediction accuracy. The estimated model is useful since it is responsive to most variables
and can be used to calculate the effect of changes in the various attributes on the
demand for different travel modes. Estimates of the model can also be of value to planners,
who can predict probabilities for different modes and calculate the effect of specific
policy changes on the demand for travel.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 149-164
Volume: 34
Issue: 2
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume2/149-164.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:2:p:149-164

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Moazam Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Moazam
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Growth and Distribution of Agrarian Assets in the Punjab
Abstract: This is a micro study of the growth and distribution of the non-land agrarian assets
in the Punjab between 1970 and 1984. This period of farm accumulation is interesting
especially since it allows us to trace the agricultural productivity impact of the Green
Revolution (introduced in the late I960s) on the distribution of wealth. The Green
Revolution was based on a wide spread adoption of inputs, HYV seed, and fertiliser,
albeit with some evidence of time lags and differentials across farm size, and it generated
a high rate of acquisition of agrarian assets, especially tubewells and mechanisation.
The introduction of the HYV inputs definitely enhanced profitability, income, and
wealth in the farm sector, but its impact on the distribution of agrarian assets across
income classes was not so definite. This study focuses on this less well-researched aspect
of the distribution of wealth generated by the Green Revolution.
To examine asset accumulation, we posit an analytical framework of exogenous
and endogenous constraints on growth, which is useful in picking up both the common
and contrasting patterns of growth and distribution across the two distinct regions of the
Punjab, the canal colonies, and southern Punjab. The first exogenous constraint of an
imperfect credit market is macro in nature, and is common to both regions, which
strongly handicaps asset acquisition by small farmers. Further, there is evidence that,
given the new technology, the ownership of assets is an important determinant of both
growth and distribution. So this initial equity bias against small farmers in the first round
of accumulation implies an even greater bias in the second round. The second endogenous
constraint is regionally specific to the more land-concentrated southern region,
which generates supervision costs for the largest operators, preventing them from
expanding their operated area further through increased mechanisation. It also adds to
the persistence in southern Punjab of the contractual form of sharecropping, in contrast
to the proliferation of self-cultivation and use of wage-labour in the canal colonies.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 181-223
Volume: 34
Issue: 3
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume3/181-223.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:3:p:181-223

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rashid Faruqee
Author-X-Name-First: Rashid
Author-X-Name-Last: Faruqee
Author-Workplace-Name: Agriculture and Natural Resources Division, South Asia Country Department 1, the World Bank, Washington, D. C.
Author-Name: Kevin Carey
Author-X-Name-First: Kevin
Author-X-Name-Last: Carey
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
Title: Reforming the Government's Role in Pakistan's Agriculture Sector
Abstract: This paper assesses the role of the government in Pakistan's agriculture sector and
concludes that major reforms are needed. The government's role is grouped into two
main areas: price and trade policy, and public institutions, services, and expenditures.
First, the paper assesses the impact of the price and trade policy on incentives and the
functioning of input markets. Agricultural incentives have been severely distorted by
policy, both through direct effects on agricultural prices and indirect effects operating
through the exchange rate. Although indirect effects from the exchange rate have been
corrected, some indirect effects remain because of higher protection given to industry.
Subsidies on the input side have created distortions in input markets, dissipating much of
the subsidy and its intended benefit to small farmers. Second, the paper looks at the role
of public institutions. These have proliferated into almost every area of agriculture, with
very little benefit to the sector. The most notable failure has been in the area of research
and extension. Public enterprises have crowded out the private sector in marketing and
distribution, and the rationale for government presence in these areas is not clear.
Hidden expenditure also has taken place through underpricing of water and electricity,
making the continued provision of these inputs financially unsustainable. The paper
concludes that the role of government in agriculture has had little beneficial impact for
most farmers and, therefore, major reforms are needed in policy and institutions to help
sectoral growth.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 225-262
Volume: 34
Issue: 3
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume3/225-262.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:3:p:225-262

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Usman Afridi
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Afridi
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Determining Real Exchange Rates
Abstract: The paper re-examines the determinants of the real exchange rate equation, and
suggests alternative determinants where appropriate, as well as improvements in proxies
from those conventionally used. The paper emphasises the weaknesses of the multicountry
approach to empirical study of the real exchange rate.
While real exchange rates are determined for Pakistan, the terms-of-trade variable
is found to be insignificant. Excess demand for domestic credit, capital flow, and the
"opinions" variable are all found to be inversely related to the RER. Thus government
expenditure on non-tradable is positively related; and better specification of the technological
change variable shows support for the balance effect.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 263-276
Volume: 34
Issue: 3
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume3/263-276.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:3:p:263-276

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert E. Looney
Author-X-Name-First: Robert E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Looney
Author-Workplace-Name: National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA.
Title: Public Sector Deficits and Private Investment: A Test of the Crowding-out Hypothesis in Pakistan's Manufacturing Industry
Abstract: The purpose of the analysis below is to assess whether this public sector crowding
out of investment in manufacturing has been a major factor affecting the pattern of
private capital formation in that sector. The results of modified Granger Causality test
suggest that expanded public investment in infrastructure has not played an important
role in stimulating private investment in industry. If anything, it appears that private
investment has stimulated a follow-on expansion in infrastructure. Instead of crowding
in (i.e., a positive feedback effect) additional private investment, infrastructure investment
appears to have led to larger deficits and domestic borrowing. In turn, these financial
developments have dampened the flows of private capital into the important
large-scale manufacturing sector.
On the other hand, financial crowding-out of private investment in large-scale
manufacturing is a distinct possibility; but it may not be a simple, straight-forward
process. The results obtained also suggest that private investment in large-scale manufacturing
has suffered from real crowding-out associated with the government's noninfrastructural
investment programme. Finally, it should be noted that neither financial
nor real crowding-out seems to occur in other areas of private investment. Clearly,
further research should be undertaken to determine why the large-scale manufacturing
sector is unique in this regard.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 277-297
Volume: 34
Issue: 3
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume3/277-297.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:3:p:277-297

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul P. Streeten
Author-X-Name-First: Paul P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Streeten
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Boston University, USA.
Title: Human Development: Means and Ends
Abstract: Sometimes the change in the fashions of thinking about development appears
like a comedy of errors, a lurching from one fad to another. Economic growth,
employment creation, jobs and justice, redistribution with growth, basic needs,
bottom-up development, participatory development, sustainable development,
market-friendly development, liberation, liberalisation, human development; thus
goes the carousel of the slogans. But this would not be a correct record. There has
been an evolution in our thinking about development. Both internal logic and new
evidence have led to the revision of our views. Previous and partly discarded
approaches have taught us much that is still valuable, and our current approach will
surely be subject to criticisms. A brief survey of the evolution of our thinking may
be helpful.
The discussion started in the 1950s, influenced by Arthur Lewis (1955) and
others, who emphasised economic growth as the key to poverty eradication. Even at
this early stage, sensible economists and development planners were quite clear (in
spite of what is now often said in caricature of past thought) that economic growth is
not an end in itself, but a performance test of development. Arthur Lewis defined the
purpose of development as widening our range of choice, exactly as the Human
Development Reports of the United Nations Development Programme do today.
Three justifications were given for the emphasis on growth as the principal
performance test. One justification assumed that through market forces–such as the
rising demand for labour, rising productivity, rising wages, lower prices of the goods
bought by the people–economic growth would spread its benefits widely and
speedily, and that these benefits are best achieved through growth. Even in the early
days some sceptics said that growth is not necessarily so benign. They maintained
that in certain conditions (such as increasing returns, restrictions to entry, monopoly
power, unequal distribution of income and assets), growth gives to those who
already have; it tends to concentrate income and wealth in the hands of the few.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 333-372
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/333-372.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:333-372

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hans W. Singer
Author-X-Name-First: Hans W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Singer
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex.
Title: Half a Century of Economic and Social Development Policies of the UN and Bretton Woods Institutions
Abstract: It is customary to date the origin of the Bretton Woods system back to 1942
when Keynes, and his associates in London, prepared the three famous memoranda
on the International Clearing Union, on Commodity Buffer Stocks and Plans for
Relief and Reconstruction. To these three memoranda we may add the Beveridge
Report which appeared in the same year, 1942. Keynes had taken a great interest in
the Beveridge Report and this model of a national social welfare state was readily
capable of international extension and application.
However, in this historical perspective, we may well go a little further back.
The Great Depression of the 1930s had shown that in the absence of multilateral
agreements and multilateral institutions, the economic system was in danger of
degenerating into beggar-my-neighbour policies leading to general immiserisation.
The World Economic Conference of 1931 had been a first attempt to create an
international economic order to prevent this condition from continuing. Although
this attempt ended in failure, yet the ideas then brought forward had continued to
reverberate in Keynes’s mind. His vision underlying the 1942 documents was
governed by the overarching principle of “Never Again!” -never again back to the
conditions of the 1930s which were seen as having brought about not only mass
misery and mass unemployment but also Hitlerism and war. Also never again a
failure like that of the 1931 World Economic Conference!
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 375-392
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/375-392.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:375-392

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Helmut Reisen
Author-X-Name-First: Helmut
Author-X-Name-Last: Reisen
Author-Workplace-Name: International Policy Issues, OECD Development Centre, Paris.
Title: Managing Temporary Capital Inflows: Lessons from Asia and Latin America
Abstract: As witnessed by Mexico and Argentina in 1995 and by the Southern Cone
countries of Latin America in the early 1980s, the macroeconomic adjustment to a
sudden reversal of foreign capital flows can be extremely painful. There are at least
four major reasons why governments and central banks should care about the
sustainability of the capital flows
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 395-427
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/395-427.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:395-427

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mahmood H. Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Mahmood H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Simon Fraser University, Canada.
Author-Name: Mohsin S. Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohsin S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C.
Title: Agricultural Growth in China and Sub-Saharan African Countries
Abstract: Agriculture remains a dominant sector in the economies of most African and
several Asian countries. However, the poor performance of agriculture in Africa
stands in sharp contrast to the robust agricultural growth in many Asian countries.2
In this regard, the experience of China is perhaps as impressive as it is relevant to
many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. A general observation is that the productivity
of land and labour has to rise through intensive agriculture, given the limited area of
arable land (in China and Africa) and the high rates of growth of population (as in
Africa). In many African countries, labour productivity has fallen and land
productivity has not increased significantly. In China, productivities of both land and
labour have increased significantly since at least the early 1980s.
Agricultural output can increase in three ways: (i) get more from the same
quantities of inputs through better utilisation of the existing capacity; (ii) use
increased quantities of inputs; and (iii) use new techniques to raise the productivity
of each input or raise the total product curve. All of these may require changes in
tenurial arrangements, levels of investment in infrastructure and support services,
and policies that affect the prices of outputs and inputs. A close examination of
factors underlying the contrasting experiences in China and African countries
reveals important differences in the institutional and policy environments affecting
the individual behaviour with regard to the adoption and use of new (profitable)
technologies to raise the land and labour productivities.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 429-456
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/429-456.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:429-456

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ismail Sirageldin
Author-X-Name-First: Ismail
Author-X-Name-Last: Sirageldin
Author-Workplace-Name: Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Safat, Kuwait.
Title: Islam, Society, and Economic Policy
Abstract: The contemporary Muslim world is still emerging from the long night of colonial
hegemony a period during which the key institutions of Muslim society were supplanted
and substituted, the moral fibre of society was destroyed, and an 'unrepresentative'
leadership was groomed to power, producing the most serious schism within Muslim
society. The Muslim society of today is not yet a society on its own. It is still under the
shadow of the Western system and, as such, it is doubtful how 'representative' of the
Islamic ethos its current behaviour can be.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 457-480
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/457-480.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:457-480

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael M. Horowitz
Author-X-Name-First: Michael M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Horowitz
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Development Anthropology at the State University of New York at Binghamton.
Title: Dams, Cows, and Vulnerable People: Anthropological Contributions to Sustainable Development
Abstract: It is with considerable trepidation that I agreed to address so distinguished a
gathering of development economists, theoreticians, and practitioners. I was
enormously honoured when Professor Naqvi invited me to make this presentation,
and at the same time impressed with my own temerity at having accepted. I am not
an economist; at best, I contribute to the emerging discipline of economic
anthropology, that subfield of anthropology that some have baptised as the “dismal
science of the 20th century.” I locate my research within a subfield of that subfield,
in a specifically development anthropology, making the claim that is still received in
some quarters with only partial tolerance, that anthropologists–those curious people
identified in the popular mind with the recovery and study of isolated people, bones,
and potsherds–have also something useful to add to both the theory and praxis of
development.
As a self-conscious field of inquiry, development anthropology dates only
from the last 20-25 years, though its roots can be found in the late 19th century,
when scientists working for the United States Bureau of American Ethnology tried
to understand the Ghost Dance, a great messianic movement that spread rapidly
among subjugated Native Americans who were forced on to reservations by the
government and in very large part deprived of the means of social and economic
reproduction.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 481-508
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/481-508.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:481-508

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohammad Afzal
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Afzal
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: M. F. K. Kiani
Author-X-Name-First: M. F. K.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kiani
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Mean Ages at Parities: An Indirect Estimation
Abstract: This paper is the outcome of a continuous concern that some of the basic
demographic estimates provided by successive surveys in the country do not fulfil the
expectation of use at their face value. In a previous paper, an indirect assessment of the
birth rates from these surveys was made on the basis of internal consistency of the
relevant data. It was pointed out in that paper that a rate being a ratio of the two
estimates (e.g., the number of births and the population), any variation of emphasis on
obtaining accuracy of the numerator or denominator makes the rate unrealistic. For
example, placing more emphasis on a better coverage of births or deaths and a relatively
less or no corresponding effort on the measurement of population may lead to biased
estimates. Further, any inconsistency of such measurement between different surveys
would make their utility for assessing even a time-trend questionable [Afzal et al.
(1993)]. Whereas there is no substitute for realistically estimated birth rates (or fertility
rates), an index based on relatively simple information which is less affected by the
variations in adjustments of births and population is the "Mean Number of Children
Ever Born per Woman"
The estimates of mean number of children ever born per woman are based on a
simple question about how many children have so far been born alive to a woman till
the time of collection of data in a survey or a census. Based on these data, estimates of
mean number of children born to women of a specific age group or collectively of all
age groups within the reproductive period are easily computed. For a specific age
group, these estimates reflect fertility experience since the beginning of the reproductive
span, usually taken as 15 years. Thus, for a younger age group of women, the number of
children ever born is less than for those in the higher age groups. Collectively for the
women aged 15 to 49 years, the estimated mean number of children ever born per
woman gives a composite index relating to varied exposure periods.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 545-561
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/545-561.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:545-561

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abdul Hakim
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Hakim
Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad.
Title: Desire for No More Children and Contraceptive Use in Pakistan
Abstract: Pakistan has been experiencing rapid population growth since the second half
of this century. The growth rate accelerated after the 1950s as a result of the decline
in mortality coupled with sustained high fertility. The area constituting Pakistan had a
population of 16.6 million in 1901, 33.7 million in 1951, and 126 million in 1994.
Recognising the problem of rapid population growth, Pakistan has been trying
to control it through different family planning strategies and approaches since the
1960s. However, various surveys indicate that the rate of success in family planning
has not been encouraging. So far, the population welfare programme has achieved a
sizeable recognition of the need for family planning but the actual use of family
planning methods remains limited. The use of family planning methods in Pakistan is
determined by various factors and may vary between different segments of the
population according to various socio-economic, cultural, and economic factors. It is
also possible that a woman does not want more children but cannot use family
planning methods because of seclusion or her subordinate position in the family. 
However, the desire for children is one of the main reasons considered in this connection.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 563-578
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/563-578.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:563-578

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A.R. Kemal
Author-X-Name-First: A.R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Faiz Bilquees
Author-X-Name-First: Faiz
Author-X-Name-Last: Bilquees
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Zafar Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Zafar
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: National Income Accounting and Environment: A Case Study of Waterlogging and Salinity in Pakistan
Abstract: Irrigation plays a crucial role in improving agricultural productivity,
it has resulted in waterlogging and salinity problems in Pakistan due to both water
seepage from canals and overdoses of water encouraged by inappropriate water
pricing practices. As many as 2.2 million hectares of land forming 13 percent of the
cultivated area in Pakistan suffer from an acute problem of waterlogging and
salinity, i.e., water table is less than 5 feet from the normal surface level. [See
Government of Pakistan (1993)]. Despite the government’s effort to resolve the
problem through an expansive network of public tubewells under the salinity control
and reclamation project (SCARP), the problem seems to have worsened over time.
The higher water doses may increase the growth of output in the short run, but
by degrading the agricultural lands and increasing impurities of potable water, etc.,
they adversely affect the long-run growth. These adverse effects of the inappropriate
irrigation practices on agricultural productivity are generally not accounted for in the
national income accounting system. Accordingly, there is a need to account for the
forgone economic, social, and environmental benefits. In this regard, the
environmental resource accounting provides a valuable information base for
integrated development planning and policy. The approach allows for segregation
and elaboration of all environment-related flows and stocks of traditional accounts,
linkage of physical accounts with monetary environmental accounts and balance
sheets, assessment of environmental costs and benefits, accounting for the
maintenance of tangible wealth, and elaboration and measurement of the indicators
of environmentally-adjusted production and income.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 581-590
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/581-590.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:581-590

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Akhtar A. Hai
Author-X-Name-First: Akhtar A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Hai
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.
Title: The Impact of Structural Reforms on Environmental Problems in Agriculture
Abstract: With the technological advancement in almost every sphere of human life,
there has been an increased tendency to focus on the conservation of scarce
resources by acquiring higher levels of resource use efficiency in the production
process. However, there also remains a visible element of haste in policy planning
towards the achievement of these goals, particularly in the developing world.
The economic viability of such haste would have been positive had this
helped in reducing the social cost of delayed policy actions taken in the preceding
period. Conversely, the policy planning efforts continue to be ignorant of long-term
consequences of current actions, as well as deficient in integrating various
components of the sector or sub-sector of the economy which can not be viewed in
isolation. These design defects in policies are largely ignored in post-impact
evaluations of programmes, and failures are often incorrectly attributed to
implementation, or simply referred to as managerial snags. Nevertheless, these
inherent design defects become the primary contributors towards non-sustainability
of development programmes.
Pakistan’s agriculture, with its declining share in the economy over time, is
still the single largest sector accounting for 23 percent in the GDP. Whereas its share
has steadily declined in favour of rising manufacturing and services sectors, its rate
of growth has remained rather erratic.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 591-606
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/591-606.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:591-606

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Soofia Mumtaz
Author-X-Name-First: Soofia
Author-X-Name-Last: Mumtaz
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: The Demographic Determinants of "Successful" Village Cooperatives
Abstract: Worsley and his colleagues (1971) have drawn attention to the tendency in all
traditional societies, to assume communal relations as `solidary' in nature. The
structure of village cooperatives is presumed to reinforce the solidarity of those
relations. Anthropological analyses, however, have illustrated that communal
relations range from those that could be termed `solidary' to relations that are in
direct conflict. The response of the local population to the changes introduced within
the co-operative framework is therefore likely to be cross-culturally varied.
Moreover, the demographic features of historically common conditions of a
geographical area, it is argued, are also pertinent to the "success" that may be
expected of village cooperatives with reference to their stated objectives. The
strength and identity of the socio-economic groups inhabiting a given geographical
region play a role in defining local response to the changes introduced and their
likely outcome.
The case of an NGO in the Frontier province of Pakistan, enables us to
illustrate the disparity between the nature of communal relations and the composition
and function of modern cooperatives, on the one hand; and the diversity in the
ecological and physical conditions, as well as the strength and identity of the
populations inhabiting different villages, which determine the dynamics of the
interaction between the different sections of the population, on the other hand. The
need is thus emphasised to provide for diversity in the "guiding principles" of
development models to allow for pertinent differences (even within the same
geographical area) in order to achieve the stated objectives.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 609-617
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/609-617.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:609-617

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Titus
Author-X-Name-First: Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Titus
Author-Workplace-Name: University of California, Riverside, USA.
Title: Economics, Politics, and Ethnicity in Balochistan's Transport Industry
Abstract: Because of its potential to disrupt economic development, it is necessary to
understand the dynamics of ethnic conflict in the contemporary world. A prevalent
trend in the study of ethnicity is to focus on the creation and/or maintenance of ethnic
identities and mobilisation on the basis of those identities as groups compete for
resources, opportunities, or political power in the context of the nation-state [Barth
(1969); Brass (1985); Comaroff (1987); Mumtaz (1990)]. In this approach, an ethnic
group's distinguishing markers—language, custom, dress, etc.—are treated less as
manifestations of tradition which define or create the group and more as arenas of
negotiation and contestation in which people strive to realise their practical and
symbolic interests. This happens as individuals or families, pursuing their livelihoods
with the skills and resources available to them, find (or create) opportunities or
obstacles which appear to be based on ethnic criteria. The state can intensify this
process as it uses positive or negative discrimination in order to achieve some desired
distribution of wealth and opportunity. In turn, political leadership becomes a key in
realising the experience of shared ethnic interests. Leadership develops as a kind of
dual legitimation process, i.e., as individuals or organisations seek to be accepted as
spokesmen both by members of the group itself and by outsiders.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 619-626
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/619-626.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:619-626

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha
Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Pasha
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration, Karachi.
Author-Name: M. Aynul Hasan
Author-X-Name-First: M. Aynul
Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan
Author-Workplace-Name: CIDA, and teaches at Acadia University in Canada.
Author-Name: Aisha Ghaus
Author-X-Name-First: Aisha
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.
Author-Name: Ajaz Rasheed
Author-X-Name-First: Ajaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Rasheed
Author-Workplace-Name: ISSP, Karachi.
Title: Is the Social Action Programme in Pakistan Financially Sustainable?
Abstract: Earlier neoclassical, classical, or structuralist theories [due to Rostow (1960)]
considered economic growth to be a result of the right quantity and combination of
saving, investment, and foreign aid, with surpluses from the primary, commodityproducing
sectors being channelled into capital for further growth. Accordingly, the
main constraint in these growth models has been the relatively low level of capital
formation available. While the above paradigm has intuitive appeal, it, however,
ignores the complementarity of social-political influences on the physical variables
(i.e., capital, labour, etc.) in growth and development. Urquidi (1971) argued that the
social progress of a nation is a necessary condition for sustained economic growth. It
is now increasingly evident that the investment in the social sectors—primary
education, basic health, housing, changes in land-tenure system, social security,
better social relations–are as, if not more, important than the investment in the
commodity-producing sectors or related infrastructure.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 629-647
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/629-647.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:629-647

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aslam Farid
Author-X-Name-First: Aslam
Author-X-Name-Last: Farid
Author-Workplace-Name: Textile University of Pakistan, Karachi.
Author-Name: Javed Ashraf
Author-X-Name-First: Javed
Author-X-Name-Last: Ashraf
Author-Workplace-Name: Textile University of Pakistan, Karachi.
Title: Volatility at Karachi Stock Exchange
Abstract: Frequent “crashes” of the stock market reported during the year 1994 suggest
that the Karachi bourse is rapidly converting into a volatile market. This cannot be
viewed as a positive sign for this developing market of South Asia. Though heavy
fluctuations in stock prices are not an unusual phenomena and it has been observed
at almost all big and small exchanges of the world. Focusing on the reasons for such
fluctuations is instructive and likely to have important policy implications.
Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis argue that changes in stock prices are
mainly dependent on the arrival of information regarding the expected returns from
the stock. However, Fama (1965), French (1980), and French and Rolls (1986)
observed that volatility is to some extent caused by trading itself. Portfolio
insurance schemes also have the potential to increase volatility. Brady Commission’s
Report provides useful insights into the effect of portfolio insurance schemes. It is
interesting to note that many analysts consider the so-called “crashes” of Karachi
stock market as a deliberate move to bring down prices. An attempt is made in this
study to examine the effect of trading on the volatility of stock prices at Karachi
Stock Exchange (KSE). Findings of the study will help understand the mechanism of
the rise and fall of stock prices at the Karachi bourse.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 651-657
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/651-657.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:651-657

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anjum Siddiqui
Author-X-Name-First: Anjum
Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui
Author-Workplace-Name: Engro Chemical Pakistan Ltd., Karachi.
Author-Name: Ahmad Waheed
Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad
Author-X-Name-Last: Waheed
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.
Title: The Controllability of Monetary Aggregates in Pakistan
Abstract: The introduction of new financial instruments and the consequent asset
substitutability since the advent of financial deregulation in 1991 has been
accompanied by volatility of the money multiplier and the monetary aggregates.
While money demand studies exist [Khan (1980)), the modelling of the supply side
of money and, in general, the impact of financial innovations on money multipliers
and monetary aggregates has been largely ignored. In a recent study, Siddiqui and
Waheed (1994a) found that during 1992-93 the narrow money multiplier fell and
increased sharply, causing instability in M1. It was also observed that the broad
money multiplier showed similar instability during the same period.
While financial innovations have been reflected in multiplier instability,
inflation and monetary aggregates have also shown an upward trend. Since 1988-89
monetary assets (M2) have registered an increase of 137 percent with an
accompanying inflation increase of 60 percent on average. This makes a strong case
for controlling the growth of monetary assets in Pakistan.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 659-669
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/659-669.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:659-669

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Moazam Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Moazam
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Durr-E-Nayab
Author-X-Name-First: Durr-E-
Author-X-Name-Last: Nayab
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Towards Linking Four Emerging Paradigms in Economic Theory—Regulationist, Institutionalist, Post-modernist, and Post-development
Abstract: This paper is an epistemological attempt to synthesise four emerging
paradigms in economic theory. These paradigms are the regulationist, the
institutionalist, the post-modernist, and the post-development. Arguably, these are
paradigms rather than models of behaviour because they each presents an analytical
framework for examining different economic phenomena. We shall attempt to show
that the four paradigms are useful, complementary, and can be symbiotically linked
into a broader paradigm especially to examine the phenomenon of low growth in the
region.
If we use a modified Kuhnian (1970) model for paradigmatic shifts in a
discipline, we can argue that there are three dominating, competing, normal
paradigms in economic theory: neoclassical, Marxist, and development theory. In
Kuhnian fashion, these three dominant paradigms are pressured by several crises of
inability to explain phenomena. Many of these explanational crises are about Less
Industrialised Countries (LICs), but increasingly these crises are also about the
inability to explain change in the Industrialised Countries (ICs) and the Newly
Industrialising Countries (NICs). One, these three paradigms have to explain the
differential growth rates of economies. They have to explain the low growth of LICs
relative to both the old NICs (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong
Kong) and the new NICs (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and China). The collapse
of the Soviet model also has to be explained. Two, these paradigms have to explain
the coexistence of significant levels of poverty with affluence in the LIs, and NICs,
and now emergent poverty in the ICs. Three, these paradigms also increasingly have
to explain why in a country growth and distribution is biased in favour of particular
ethnic and social groups, excluding others, fuelling ethnic and social conflicts within
countries and across countries globally. Four, these paradigms have to establish
whether the IC market-determined patterns of consumption demand can be satisfied
globally.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 673-690
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/673-690.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:673-690

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Naushin Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Naushin
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Mir Annice Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Mir Annice
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Gender Differences in Child Health-care Practices: Evidence from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 1990-91
Abstract: Among other factors, health care utilisation is important in determining the
health status and survival chances of children. The patterns of childhood mortality,
in general, indicate that deaths of male children have consistently exceeded those of
females, with a much greater difference in the first month of birth (NNR). This has
largely been attributed to differences in the genetic and biological factors between
the sexes [Lopez and Ruzika (1983)]. The mortality level, thereafter, is influenced
more by the socio-economic, environmental, and health care factors, indicating a
mortality disadvantage for females in some populations. It has therefore been
postulated that gender-based differences in health care practices partly explain the
sex differentials in child mortality in some countries of South Asia, where healthseeking
behaviour of parents discriminates against female children [Chen, et al.
(1981); Das Gupta (1987); Sathar (1987); Ahmed (1990)].
Using data from Bangladesh, Chen, Haq, and D’Souza (1981) found that
girls’ mortality risk was nearly 60 percent higher than that for boys after the neonatal
period, and that girl children suffered more malnutrition and received lesser
treatment for various infections. Das Gupta (1987) and Muhuri and Preston (1991)
also explained the excess mortality of girls with a surviving elder sister in terms of
conscious, selective neglect of the second daughter. Waldron (1983) in her extensive
review of child mortality patterns in developing countries concluded that besides
relative contributions of specific causes of death with different impact by sex, the
variability in discrimination by gender, primarily in nutrition and health care
utilisation, also contributes to excess female child mortality.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 693-707
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/693-707.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:693-707

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry
Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar
Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Shamim A. Sahibzada
Author-X-Name-First: Shamim A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sahibzada
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Agricultural Input Subsidies in Pakistan: Nature and Impact
Abstract: Pakistan has a history of subsidising agricultural inputs. Although none of the
agricultural inputs were subsidised during the early 1950s, the process was initiated in
the second half of the decade by subsidising chemical fertilisers in order to popularise
their use [Niaz (1984)]. The list of subsidised inputs and the rate structure of the
subsidies were expanded considerably throughout the Sixties. Towards the end of the
Sixties, it was noted that almost all the agricultural inputs including fertilisers,
insecticides, seeds, irrigation water, tubewell installations, and the operation and
purchase of tractors and tractor-related equipment were subsidised in one form or
another [Aresvik (1967) and Kuhnen (1989)]. In the 1970s, some curtailment of
subsidies occurred as a result of input price increases which followed the worldwide
recession, a major oil shock, the credit crunch, the war with India, and the consequent
steep devaluation of Pakistani Rupee [Chaudhry (1982)]. Although the subsidies had
survived the onslaught of the Seventies and tended to persist on most inputs, the
government became totally committed to their removal beginning with the 1980s, under
pressures from the IMF and the World Bank [Government of Pakistan (1980)]. As a
consequence, there was a total withdrawal of subsidy from seeds, insecticides, tubewells,
and tractors. A phased-out withdrawal of fertiliser subsidy, culminating in 1984-85 in
the case of nitrogenous fertilisers and in 1989-90 in the case of phosphatic and potash
fertilisers, was also to be undertaken [World Bank (1986)].
The purpose of the present paper is to highlight the progress of withdrawal of
input subsidies in Pakistan, to study the nature of the input subsidies and possibly
analyse the impact of the withdrawal of subsidies on the farm sector. Needless to add
that the study is also intended to make policy recommendations on the various aspects of
subsidy withdrawal.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 711-722
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/711-722.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:711-722

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Ather Maqsood
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui
Author-X-Name-First: Rehana
Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Food Security in Pakistan: Can It Be Achieved?
Abstract: Wide fluctuations in world prices of food-grains, especially rice and wheat, in
the seventies and the early eighties forced many developing countries to strive for
self-sufficiency in food-grain production. Pakistan is among the countries where
near self-sufficiency was achieved in wheat in the early eighties. It also maintained
its status as a leading rice-exporting country. However, a continuously high rate of
population growth, a changing pattern of income distribution, and a greater level of
urbanisation have greatly influenced the demand for food-grains. At the same time,
additional factors like a sharp rise in the cost of irrigation, a dramatic decline in the
world price of rice, a heavy debt burden, the lack of technology and human capital
development, and mismanagement in the distribution system have contributed
towards a slower growth of grain production as compared with the levels achieved in
the sixties and the eighties.
This change in the demand and supply situation with respect to food has
necessitated the need to re-evaluate the existing agricultural policies. Within demand
and supply constraints, the question is whether or not Pakistan can attain selfsufficiency
in wheat while at the same time maintaining its status as a significant
exporter of rice. In the immediate future, the situation appears desperate, but in the
long-run, when available resources are adequately utilised and consistent policies are
adopted, there is hope and optimism. This study not only reviews the current food
situation in Pakistan but also develops alternative policy scenarios which are
consistent with the target of food security in Pakistan.
This paper is developed as follows. The second section reviews the current
food situation in Pakistan briefly. Based on supply and demand elasticities, the
baseline forecasts or the control solution is generated in the third section. Alternative
policy scenarios are developed in the fourth section, and the last section concludes
this study.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 723-731
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/723-731.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:723-731

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Usman Mustafa
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Mustafa
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Agricultural Research Institute, Sariab, Quetta.
Author-Name: P.L. Pingali
Author-X-Name-First: P.L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Pingali
Author-Workplace-Name: International Rice Research Institute, Manila, Philippines.
Title: Intensification-induced Degradation of Irrigated Infrastructure: The Case of Waterlogging and Salinity in Pakistan
Abstract: Water and land development, use, and distribution has played a vital role in
agricultural development in Pakistan. The country's canal irrigation system is the
largest contiguous irrigation system in the world—consisting of 40,000 miles of
canals and over 80,000 water courses, field channels and ditches running for another
million miles [Qureshi and Zakir (1994)]. This irrigation network covers more than
70 percent of Pakistan's agriculture.
Private investment has also contributed significantly to the irrigation system in
the form of private tubewells. About 32 percent of farm-gate available water is
supplied by the private tubewells, [Government of Pakistan (1988)]. These
developments have not only brought new land under cultivation but also permitted a
considerable increase in cropping intensities.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 733-750
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/733-750.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:733-750

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shahnaz Kazi
Author-X-Name-First: Shahnaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Kazi
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Bilquees Raza
Author-X-Name-First: Bilquees
Author-X-Name-Last: Raza
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Rural Women’s Access to Credit and Extension: A Strategy for Change
Abstract: Although still ‘invisible’ to policy-makers, women’s involvement in
agricultural and livestock production is empirically established through national
surveys and intensive studies. The labour force participation rates for rural women in
1990-91 varied ranged between 57 percent (Agricultural Census) and 43 percent
(Pakistan Integrated Household Survey). Evidence from micro studies also shows
that women are active participants in the farm and livestock sectors [Freedman and
Wai (1988); Masood (1988); Ali et al. (1976); Haque (1986); Khan and Bilquees
(1976)]. W hile rural women’s contribution to agricultural and livestock production is
well-documented, they have little or no access to productive inputs to enhance their
economic participation in these sectors. Evidence based on national level data
indicates that women’s participation in agricultural activities is constrained by the
lack of land and other assets [Sathar and Desai (1994)]. Contrary to the general
view, women belonging to households that own land or other assets have a higher
labour force participation rate than landless women. While landless women are more
likely to work as agricultural labourers, however, the demand for wage employment
is seasonal, limited to a few activities and certain regions, and their lack of assets to
work with excludes any possibility of self-employment. Findings of village level
research indicate a wide gap between the technology used by rural women and the
more efficient practices in livestock production, which is attributed to their lack of
contact with extension services and to their lack of resources to adopt more efficient
methods of livestock care.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 753-765
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/753-765.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:753-765

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sarfaraz Khan Qureshi
Author-X-Name-First: Sarfaraz Khan
Author-X-Name-Last: Qureshi
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Credit for Rural Poor in Pakistan
Abstract: Farmers, large and small, and the non-farm population in rural areas all suffer
from the liquidity constraint. Credit is needed to acquire command over the use of
working capital, fixed capital, and consumption goods. The Green Revolution
technologies have increased the credit requirement for modern inputs and farm
investment. A new expanded role of rural credit institutions has emerged in the wake
of the technology revolution in rural areas.
Two distinct approaches have been used to provide the financial services to
the rural poor. The most widely favoured approach in the past was the use of
subsidised interest rates with a portion of credit reserved for the poor. The low
interest policy was based on the premise that it would induce farmers, large and
small, to use modern inputs on a larger scale. One of the adverse side-effect of this
policy was the introduction of an element of financial unsustainability in the loan
portfolios of the credit institutions. The recent view about the delivery of rural credit
consists of using market interest rates and using a mixture of 'bottom-up initiatives'
at the local level, using non-government groups and 'top-down initiatives' by the
formal credit institutions in terms of the simplification of the procedures and
decentralisation of the credit operation for credit supply to the rural poor. In this
paper, an attempt is made to evaluate the efficacy of these two approaches in the case
of Pakistan for delivering credit to the rural poor.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 769-778
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/769-778.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:769-778

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: B.A. NAzhar
Author-X-Name-First: B.A.
Author-X-Name-Last: NAzhar
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.
Title: Rural Savings: Their Magnitude, Determinants, and Mobilisation
Abstract: The general view about the rural population in Pakistan is that a vast majority
of it has a deplorably low standard of living. The incomes of most of the rural people
are so low that one wonders how they manage to survive. Studies on poverty in the
country show that the incidence and the intensity of poverty in the villages is much
higher than in the towns. Yet the available data about rural incomes and family
budgets show that the average propensity of the rural households to save is much
higher than the national average. Several questions need to be answered in this
regard. Are the data about rural incomes and expenditures reliable? Are the findings
a consistent feature over time or only a temporary phenomenon for a year or so? Do
only larger farmers save or do the smaller peasants and non-farm rural people also
manage to save? Is this finding unique only to our rural populace or is there
evidence of similar findings from elsewhere? What is the possible rationale for this
unusual saving behaviour? What is the magnitude of rural savings and what could
be their role in rural development? Finally, how could these savings be encouraged
and mobilised?
This paper aims at exploring and answering these questions with the help of
whatever data are available. Apart from the Introduction, the paper is divided into
five sections. In the first section, we present evidence of high rates of rural savings
in Pakistan and some other countries. Section 2 discusses the rationale of this
savings behaviour and the determinants of rural savings. In Section 3, we examine
the magnitude of rural savings and their possible role in rural development. Section
4 deals with the problem of mobilisation of rural savings. The final section sums up
the discussion.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 779-788
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/779-788.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:779-788

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mehnaz Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Mehnaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Qazi Masood Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Qazi Masood
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.
Title: Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary Approach
Abstract: In the recent years the “black economy” has held immense attraction for
academics as well as policy-makers. This is because the presence of the black economy
is responsible for distortions in the official estimates of macro-economic variables like
income generation, employment, rate of inflation, etc., and thus the possible effect on the
economic policies cannot be ascertained properly. It, therefore, becomes imperative to
investigate this area of research.
Researchers have defined the underground economy in alternative ways. The
underground economy defined by varied names like black, shadow, hidden, informal,
clandestine, second, parallel economy has been divided in four categories for the use of a
standard basis of classification.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 791-807
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/791-807.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:791-807

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A.F. Aisha Ghaus
Author-X-Name-First: A.F. Aisha
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus
Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.
Author-Name: Rauf Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Rauf
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi.
Author-Name: Rafia Ghaus
Author-X-Name-First: Rauf
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus
Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi.
Title: The Determinants of Rates of Octroi Tax in Pakistan
Abstract: Octroi is a tax imposed by local governments in Pakistan on commodities
imported into the municipal limits for local use, sale, or consumption. It is levied
generally by urban local councils on goods coming in by all modes—sea, land, and air
transport. The point of assessment is alongside roads at octroi posts situated at or before
municipal boundaries, at railway stations, seaports or airports.
Octroi is currently the largest source of revenue to urban local councils in the
country and contributes 86 percent to total tax revenues and over 59 percent to total
local revenue receipts (see Table 1). Its revenue significance (in terms of share in total
receipts) has increased over the years. In 1987-88, it accounted for about 57 percent of
total local receipts. Also, revenue generation from octroi is higher than that by any
provincial tax. In 1991-92, total national collection from octroi was Rs 5.5 billion as
compared to Rs 3.5 billion from stamp duties, the largest provincial tax source.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 809-829
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/809-829.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:809-829

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ziaul Haque
Author-X-Name-First: Ziaul
Author-X-Name-Last: Haque
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Islam and Economics in Pakistan: Critical Perspectives
Abstract: The modern world characteristically stands divided into developed and
developing countries, or into core and peripheral societies, which exist at different
stages of development but in general comprise a single global economy. The former
dominate the latter in a typical division of labour in which the economically rich
countries of the core areas specialise in the manufacture of industrial goods of high
technology, whereas the developing countries where the majority of population
depends on agriculture as livelihood specialise in the production of mainly
agricultural raw materials. Some semi-peripheral countries mediate between these
two categories in a complex web of socio-economic relations, structures, and
formations. [Wallerstein (1979; 1984)]. Therefore, the economic problems of
particular societies, regions, and countries are now closely connected and even
inextricably intertwined. Developing countries like Pakistan have now been
integrated into this global economy.
The capitalist world-economy has been expanding since the sixteenth century,
and has developed more rapidly after the Industrial Revolution and the French
Revolution in the eighteenth century. It has now been extended to the whole world.
Subsequently, a great transformation, continuing from previous centuries, has
occurred in modern society, in which primordial socio-economic organisation based
on the family and the subsistence household-economy has gradually been replaced;
first, by a local-national economy, and then by a global economy based on the
principles of limited liability corporation, factory system, wager-labour, moneyeconomy,
and production for the market.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 833-844
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/833-844.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:833-844

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sayyid Tahir
Author-X-Name-First: Sayyid
Author-X-Name-Last: Tahir
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: Islamic Perspectives on Economic Development
Abstract: Islam is both a religion and a way of life. Whereas Allah Sub'hanahu wa
Ta'aala prescribed a set of acts of personal worship, He also gave a code of conduct
for interaction among human beings. This code consists of permissible forms of
transactions vis-a-vis the non-permissible. According to the Islamic faith, one is as
much accountable in this respect as he is in matters of personal obedience to his
Creator. That Islam offers some guidelines for development is, therefore,
understandable. However, what does Islam have to offer in the area of economic
development—the concept as well as the strategy? There is room for some argument
here. This paper focuses on this subject.
The existing thought on the subject developed in the background of a huge
body of literature for both planned and mixed economies—the latter modelled on the
capitalist pattern. It is, therefore, not surprising that the departure from the
mainstream thinking took the form of emphasis on the moral and ethical dimensions
of economic development [Ahmad (1980); Chapra (1993); Sadeq (1987)]. In other
words, "economic growth along with development on the moral and social planes"
defined the Islamic position on this subject.
This paper offers a restatement of the Islamic position while, at the same time,
staying clear of downloading "Islamic values" into the mainstream thinking. In
Section 1, the existing views of conventional and Islamic economists about economic
development are noted. In Section 2, the Islamic concept of economic development is
re-stated with direct reference to the Qur'an and the Sunnah (sayings and practice of
the Prophet SallAllaho `alaihay wasallam). In Section 3, the argument of the
previous section is reviewed along with the critical subjects of role of government
and financing of development. In Section 4, some policy implications are noted, with
Section 5 providing the concluding observations.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 845-856
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/845-856.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:845-856

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Hussain
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hussain
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Nasim Shah Shirazi
Author-X-Name-First: Nasim Shah
Author-X-Name-Last: Shirazi
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: An Analysis of Pakistan’s Poverty Problem from an Islamic Perspective
Abstract: Poverty is a widespread problem that particularly afflicts developing countries. A
number of studies, have analysed the
phenomena of poverty in Pakistan. Some of these studies are based on arbitrarily chosen
poverty-lines, and others are based on poverty-lines determined on the basis of
nutritional requirements or basic needs of human beings.
The incidence of poverty is greatly influenced by the poverty-line used for a
particular study. Therefore, the way a poverty-line is defined is of great significance in
determining the incidence of poverty.
In Islamic literature, certain limits for poverty and prosperity have been
prescribed. Fuqaha like Imam Abu Yousuf consider a person prosperous if he owns
wealth equivalent to or more than the amount of Nisab. A person is considered to be
poor if he owns wealth less than the amount of Nisab. Nisab for gold was equal to 20
Miskals and Nisab for silver was 200 dirhams, which were equivalent to 140 Miskals in
weight.
Some other Fuqaha, in connection with determining different lump-sum amounts
of Jizyah to be assessed for the prosperous, the middle-class, and the poor Zimmies, have
considered those as prosperous persons who owned wealth equivalent to ten thousand
dirhams or more, those owning wealth equivalent to two hundred dirhams but less than
ten thousand dirhams, as middle-class persons, and those owning less than two hundred
dirhams, i.e., the amount of Nisab as poor persons.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 857-864
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/857-864.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:857-864

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Anwar
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Anwar
Author-Workplace-Name: International Islamic University, Selangor, Malaysia.
Title: An Islamic Perspective on Capital Markets and "Islamic" Securities in Malaysia
Abstract: Financial systems channel funds in an economy from the surplus economic units
lacking appropriate investment opportunities to the deficit economic units with such
opportunities. The surplus units seeking returns by employing their funds in productive
activities and the deficit units interested in exploiting their investment opportunities
contact one another through a network of financial markets and institutions in the
economy. The participants make financial contracts in ways which satisfy their
requirements regarding liquidity, denomination, maturities, and risk diversification
[Anwar (1987), pp. 296-297]. In this way, the financial markets contribute to a higher
production, efficiency, and economic welfare of everyone in the society [Mishkin
(1989), p. 45].
In recent years, the appetite for investment in the markets of developing
countries has increased manyfold [Hussain (1994), p. 2]. A good many of such
developing markets are in Islamic countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh,
Pakistan, and Malaysia. Well-developed Islamic financial markets would contribute
towards economic development by attracting capital inflows and checking capital flight
from the Islamic nations.
Islamisation of financial institutions, especially banking and insurance, has
received sufficient attention since 1950. In fact, a number of Islamic banks and
insurance companies are now operating worldwide. Islamisation of financial markets
has, however, received relatively little attention from the academic and practitioners,
although some "Islamic" securities have been introduced in several Muslim countries
including Pakistan, Jordan, Sudan, Iran, and Malaysia.
The major task of this study is to discuss the "Islamicity" of the main activities in
the conventional capital markets and the Malaysian "Islamic" capital market
instruments in the light of Islamic principles. The study is organised as follows. An
Islamic criteria for portfolio management through capital market activities is developed
in Section 2. The "Islamicity" of conventional capital market (with an emphasis on
secondary markets) operations and the "Islamic" capital market in Malaysia are
discussed in Sections 3 and 4 respectively. Additional recommendations towards the
Islamisation of capital markets are made in the final section.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 865-878
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/865-878.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:865-878

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Ramzan Akhtar
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Ramzan
Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: Provision of Public Goods in an Islamic Economy
Abstract: Islam establishes a welfare society. It obligates the society to make arrangements
for need-fulfilment of all citizens. The Islamic economy working with the market and
non-market institutions and guided by Islamic values meets the personal and public
needs of its people. The market system in a secular economy under appropriate
conditions can efficiently meet personal needs of the people; however, it fails to do so in
case of public goods. While supplementing the market system with other institutions,
the Islamic economy manages to supply optimal quantity of the public goods. The
paper studies this issue in the light of the Qur'an, the Sunnah, and Islamic history.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 879-885
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/879-885.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:879-885

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mansoor ul Hassan Bhatti
Author-X-Name-First: Mansoor ul Hassan
Author-X-Name-Last: Bhatti
Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad.
Title: Correlates of Choice of Contraceptive Methods in Pakistan
Abstract: Since 1965, contraceptive use rate has been slowly increasing in Pakistan. In
1984-85, contraceptive ever use rate was 11.8 percent and current use rate was 9.1
percent [Government of Pakistan (1986)]. These use rates increased to 20.7 percent
and 11.8 percent respectively in 1990-91 [National Institute of Population Studies
(1992)]. However, use rates did not increase as expected.
Pakistan’s Population Welfare Programme adopted many strategies to
increase the use rate of contraceptive methods but although knowledge of
contraceptive methods increased to 77.9 percent [National Institute of Population
Studies (1992)], use rate remained low. One of the major reasons was inadequate
coverage of service delivery.
Contraceptive method of choice out of the available variety of contraceptive
methods ensures continuation of use and reduces the drop-out rate [Jain (1992)]. The
needs and values of individuals change over time and any one method cannot be
suitable to an individual’s need all the time. So if more than one method is available,
and acceptor can switch over to a more suitable method of choice if the first (or
previous) method of choice becomes unacceptable. Also the client’s satisfaction with
the method of choice is very important. Clients are best satisfied when they get the
methods of their choice from a broad variety or ‘mix’ of contraceptive methods
offered on a reliable basis.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 889-898
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/889-898.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:889-898

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amir Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Amir
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Title: Economics of Barani (Rainfed) Farming and Farm Household Production Behaviour in Pakistan
Abstract: Agriculture research and development efforts in Pakistan have traditionally been
focused on raising the farm productivity of irrigated areas. Among other factors, the
underlying causes for this irrigated bias could be attributed to: the importance given to
the irrigated areas in the overall planning framework; the dominance of the irrigated
farm lobby at all levels of research, politics, and government; the relative
progressiveness of irrigated farmers in terms of adoption of new technologies; and the
presence of risk-reducing natural conditions prevailing on irrigated farms, e.g., certainty
of subsidised water supply when it is most needed. Further, like other parts of Asia, the
Green Revolution has helped the irrigated farmers in Pakistan to raise the productivity
of their major crops, such as wheat, cotton, and rice. On the other hand, the rainfed'
areas of Pakistan have drawn little benefit from the Green Revolution. The average
yields achieved on the rainfed areas remain significantly lower than the yields derived
by the traditional irrigated farmers. The rainfed farmers are also subject to subsistence
farming conditions with per capita incomes well below the national average.'' Given the
size of the area under rainfed conditions and the problems faced by the rainfed farmers,
there have been attempts by the government, international donor agencies, and nongovernment
organisations to come up with strategies to raise the productivity as well as
income of the rainfed farmers. Such efforts, however, must take into account the
production behaviour of the farm-households under rainfed conditions.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 901-912
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/901-912.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:901-912

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Himayatullah
Author-X-Name-First: Himayatullah
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Development Studies (IDS), NWFP Agricultural University, Peshawar.
Title: Estimating Relative Technical Efficiency in Barani Agriculture: Some Further Results
Abstract: The concept of technical efficiency of farms has sufficiently been detailed in
the literature on agricultural economic development since Farrell (1957) and has
now widely been studied by, among others, Bardhan (1973); Kalirajan and Flinn
(1983); Fare, Grosskopf and Lovell (1985); Battese, Coelli and Colbi (1989);
Kalirajan (1990); Battese and Coelli (1992); Himayatullah, et al. (1994); and Bashir
and Himayatullah (1994).
The interest in relative economic efficiency emerged from the observation that
labour intensity and yield are inversely related to farm size. Economists interpreted
this result as an indication that either small and large farms faced different
configurations of input and output prices, or small and large farms differed with
respect to economic efficiency. Economic efficiency of a group of farms can be
conceptualised as comprising two main components; technical efficiency and
allocative efficiency. A group of farms may be considered technically more efficient
than another group of farms if it can produce a given output with less of some or all
inputs, and a group of farms may be considered allocatively more efficient than
another group of farms if it is more successful in equating marginal revenue product
with the marginal cost of inputs. More simply, technical efficiency involves the
farm’s ability to obtain the maximum possible output from a given set of resources,
and allocative efficiency concerns its ability to maximise profits by equating the
marginal revenue product with the marginal cost of inputs. Specifically, a group of
farms that uses the best combination of inputs achieves the maximum possible
output and is superior to another group of farms which does not do the same, given a
similar bundle of inputs.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 913-924
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/913-924.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:913-924

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Aynul Hasan
Author-X-Name-First: M. Aynul
Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan
Author-Workplace-Name: CIDA and Acadia University, Canada.
Author-Name: Ashfaque H. Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Ashfaque H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha
Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Pasha
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration, Karachi.
Author-Name: M. Ajaz Rasheed
Author-X-Name-First: M. Ajaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Rasheed
Author-Workplace-Name: ISSP, Karachi.
Title: What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in Pakistan?
Abstract: One of the most significant developments in the current economic scene in
Pakistan has been the sharp increase in the rate of inflation. The annual average rate of
increase in the wholesale price index (WPI) during the first seven months (July-January
1994-95) of the current fiscal year has been about 19 percent as opposed to 11.3 percent
during the same period last year. A similar increase was also witnessed in the consumer
price index (CPI) which accelerated to 13 percent as opposed to 11.1 percent during the
previous period. Such a sharp increase in prices in recent months has not only caused
alarm in the academic circles but has equally disturbed the country’s chief executive, the
Prime Minister.
The recent surge of inflation is a matter of serious concern for a variety of
reasons. First, Pakistan has been a low-inflation country as it has experienced price
stability during the last three decades. The rate of inflation, as measured by an increase
in the WPI, averaged 2.6 percent during the 1960s. The components of the WPI, i.e.,
food, raw materials, manufactures, and fuel and lubricants, also grew by an average rate
ranging from 2.0 to 3.4 percent p.a. during then 1960s (see Table 1 for relevant
statistics). The rate of inflation crossed the single-digit threshold during the 1970s. The
WPI and its components increased at an annual average rate ranging from 12 to 18
percent. The double-digit inflation during the 1970s has been the result of two major oil
shocks, a massive devaluation of currency, and devastating floods destroying
agricultural crops. Pakistan returned to the fold of the single-digit inflation during the
1980s. The rate of inflation remained at the single-digit level during the first three years
of the 1990s with the exception of 1990-91, when the rate of inflation increased to 11.7
percent as a result of the Gulf War. It is only during the outgoing fiscal year and in the
current year that the rising inflation is posing a major threat to macroeconomic stability.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 927-943
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/927-943.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:927-943

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Aslam
Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhary
Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Naved Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Naved
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Karachi.
Title: Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan
Abstract: Inflation is a burning issue in Pakistan. It is generally felt that for several years
Pakistan has had a double-digit inflation. The public sector has used a mix of policies to
control inflation, and it is also held responsible for its creation. The consumer price
index (CPI) increased over 11 percent in 1981-82, and over 12 percent in 1990-91.
Similarly, sensitive price index (SPI) increased over 15 percent in 1981-82, and over 12
percent in 1990-91. The GDP deflator was also double-digit for several years. Inflation
not only affects sectoral allocation and distribution of income but also generates poverty.
A prescription might not be appropriate until the roots of the disease are carefully
investigated, which is the very reason for carrying out this study.
Studies by Hossain (1990) several others concluded that inflation is a monetary
phenomenon in Pakistan, while Bilquees (1988) showed that structural factors explained
the inflationary process in Pakistan. It is widely disagreed whether money supply is
exogenous or endogenous. Vogel (1974), criticising the monetarist approach, argued that
further research is needed on the determination of money supply. Given this
background, this study is intended to identify the variables leading to inflation; the
nature of money supply, endogenous or exogenous, is also analysed.
Section 2 of the study provides a brief review of the literature. A model is
developed to study the relationship among fiscal deficit, money supply, and inflation.
Section 3 contains a description of the empirical results. Section 4 provides the
conclusion and policy implications.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 945-956
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/945-956.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:945-956

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui
Author-X-Name-First: Rehana
Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Usman Afridi
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Afridi
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Rashida Haq
Author-X-Name-First: Rashida
Author-X-Name-Last: Haq
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Determinants of Expenditure on Health in Pakistan
Abstract: An important component of human capital formation is improvements in the
health status of the population.1 Improvements in the health status of a nation can lead to
longer life expectancy, shift the labour supply curve outward, increase labour
productivity, and increase the productivity of investment in other forms of human
capital, particularly education.
Since health and the capacity to improve health are related to socio-economic
conditions, it is important to analyse the impact of changes in these variables on the
provision of health services. Due to the presence of externalities, market failures, and
inability of a significant proportion of the population to pay, government intervention is
required in the health sector. In this study, we shall analyse the changes in the provision
of public health resources in Pakistan, in response to the changes in socio-economic
factors.
Most empirical studies in this area have been cross-country studies. Fulop and
Reinke (1983) emphasise that socio-economic factors affect the health status directly and
indirectly. The indirect effect is through the changes in health resources in response to
the changes in socio-economic factors. Kleiman’s (1986) cross-country analysis shows
that per capita national income, the ratio of government consumption expenditure to
private consumption expenditure, and the measure of income inequality are important
determinants of public expenditure on health. The study also shows that public and
private expenditure on health are good if not a perfect substitute for each other.
Correa and Namkoong (1992) show that changes in health policies (or health
resources), represented by changes in health personnel, infrastructure, and expenditure
on health, are significantly influenced by Socio-economic and political conditions.
Similarly, Hitiris and Posnett (1992); Gerdtham and Jonson (1992) and Murthy (1992)
show that economic factors play an important role in determining the expenditure on
health.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 959-970
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/959-970.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:959-970

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Rafiq
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Rafiq
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: An Analysis of Drug Abuse Networking in Pakistan
Abstract: There are three principal reasons for undertaking the present paper. First,
although all the dimensions of diffusion of drug abuse are still uncertain and the
existence and extent of Drug Abuse Networking (DAN) is certainly not the only factor
determining the likelihood of the spread of drug abuse. Nevertheless, one of the prime
modes of its spread is through DAN. The extent of DAN and the diffusion of drug
abuse in society are closely related to each other [Brook, Nomura and Cohen (1989,
1989a, 1992); Kornhauser (1978); Elliott, Huizinge and Dunford (1983); Delemarre
(1993)]. Second, the network analysis provides an important instrumental element to
deal with social problems and to uncover the information for intervention in specific
groups of the community for the well-being of its members [Uehara (1990); Wellman
and Scott (1990); Brook, Nomura, and Cohen (1980); Coombs (1973); Thompson
(1973); Eggert, Thompson, Herting, Nicholas and Dicker (1994); Gould (1991)]. Last,
the issues of DAN’s dynamics and its control have received little attention in literature
relevant to Pakistan or elsewhere. It is also considered important from the policy point
of view to determine the dynamics of DAN in Pakistan on the basis of experimental
research.1 It is hoped that this paper will help in the attainment of these goals. It
addresses the subject from different perspectives, but the major aim is to help develop
and establish methodologies in the context of Pakistan. Such research may help those
involved in making the policies and in controlling the diffusion of drug abuse in
Pakistan.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 971-984
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/971-984.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:971-984

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: S.I. Cohen
Author-X-Name-First: S.I.
Author-X-Name-Last: Cohen
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Title: Allocation of Foreign Aid in a Segmented International Context
Abstract: Research on the topic of distribution of foreign aid among recipients is regaining
momentum. This is understandable in the light of the knowledge that presently the
richest 40 percent of the developing world receives twice as much aid per capita as the
poorest 40 percent [UNDP (1994)], while once upon a time foreign aid was sought to
accomplish exactly the opposite.
The distribution of official development assistance (ODA) is conventionally
studied in terms of two models: the ‘recipient needs’ model and the ‘donor interest’
model. In the first, foreign aid flows are seen to satisfy the socio-economic needs of the
recipient countries. In the second, national interests of donors, whether these are
military, political or commercial, are seen to determine the direction and size of the
foreign aid.
Empirical studies were made to ascertain and understand whether, on balance,
foreign aid is motivated by recipient need or donor interest. There is one class of studies,
for example, Mcgillivray (1989), which estimates for donors a compound measure of
their allocation bias. The other class of studies, i.e., Maizels and Nissanke (1984) and
Grilli and Riess (1992), employs regression analysis to explain allocation of foreign aid
by representative variables of recipient need and donor interest.
Because the primary pursuit of these studies was to give an overall judgement on
foreign aid motivations, insufficient attention was given to differentiations among
donors, between recipients, and over time. The allocation policies of donors can be
observed to differ between large donors and small donors, whereby the two types of
donors are often tied to different groups of recipient countries. Moreover, other
arguments than recipient need and donor interest, such as historic and geographical ties
and the changing world political order, play important roles.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 987-1000
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/987-1000.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:987-1000

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ashfaque H. Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Ashfaque H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Afia Malik
Author-X-Name-First: Afia
Author-X-Name-Last: Malik
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Lubna Hasan
Author-X-Name-First: Lubna
Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling
Abstract: The relationship between export expansion and economic growth has been
examined extensively during the last two decades in the context of the suitability of the
alternative development strategies. The decade of the 1970s witnessed an emerging
consensus in favour of export promotion as development strategy. Such a consensus
was based on the following facts. First, higher export earnings working through
alleviating foreign exchange constraints may enhance the ability of a developing
country to import more industrial raw materials and capital goods, which, in turn, may
expand its productive capacity. Secondly, the competition in export markets abroad
may lead to the exploitation of economies of scale, greater capacity utilisation, efficient
resource allocation, and an acceleration of technical progress in production. Thirdly,
given the theoretical arguments mentioned above, the observed strong correlation
between exports and economic growth was interpreted as empirical evidence in favour
of export promotion as a development strategy.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1001-1012
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1001-1012.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1001-1012

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Syed Zahid Ali
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Zahid
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali
Author-Workplace-Name: International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: Perfect Capital Mobility, Taxation, Money Illusion, and Devaluations
Abstract: Are devaluations contractionary? This question has been with us for a long time.
The conventional Keynesian economist holds the view that if devaluation is demandexpansionary,
then both output and balance-of-payments will improve with devaluation.
Experience, however, shows contrary outcomes. For example, Sheehy (1986), who has
covered 16 Latin American countries, concluded that devaluation was highly
contractionary in these countries. Edwards (1986), on the other hand, has covered 12
less developed countries (LDCs) and found that devaluations are contractionary in the
impact period, while in the long-run they all become neutral. Hamarious (1989) has
used the data for the periods 1953-73 and 1975-84 and has covered twenty-seven
countries and six devaluation episodes to study the effects of devaluations upon prices
and the trade balance. He found that in over 80 percent of the cases, devaluation causes
a net improvement in the trade balance both in the impact period and in the middle
period. The study concluded that the effects of devaluation upon the trade balance last
for two to three years. Such results seriously challenge the theoretical results derived by
the conventional economist.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1013-1022
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1013-1022.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1013-1022

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yasmeen Mohiuddin
Author-X-Name-First: Yasmeen
Author-X-Name-Last: Mohiuddin
Author-Workplace-Name: The University of the South, Sewanee, Tennessee.
Title: Country Rankings of. Women's Status: An Alternative Index
Abstract: The purpose of the present paper is to formulate a composite index of the status
of women and to rank both developed and developing countries on the basis of that
index. This index is presented as an alternative or complement to the current status of
women index, published by the Population Crisis Committee (PCC) and used by the
World. Bank and the United Nations, which focuses on indicators measuring health,
education, employment, marriage and childbearing, and social equality. The paper
argues that these indicators have a poverty-bias and measure women's status in terms of
structural change rather than in terms of their welfare vis-à-vis men. The PCC index is
also based on the implicit assumption that women's status in developing countries ought
to be defined in a similar way as in developed countries, thus including primarily only
those indicators which are more relevant for developed countries. To remedy these
defects, the paper presents an alternative composite index, hereafter labelled the
Alternative Composite (AC) index, based on many more indicators reflecting women's
issues in both developed and developing countries. The results of the statistical analysis
show that the ranking of countries based on the AC index is significantly different from
the PCC index.
The paper is organised into four sections. Section 2 critically evaluates the PCC
index of the status of women. Section 3 explains how the new status of women index is
formulated and ranks countries on the basis of this index. Section 4 compares the two
rankings and concludes with policy implications.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1025-1039
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1025-1039.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1025-1039

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hina Nazli
Author-X-Name-First: Hina
Author-X-Name-Last: Nazli
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Samina Nazli
Author-X-Name-First: Samina
Author-X-Name-Last: Nazli
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Trends in Female Employment at the Federal Government Level: A Critical Appraisal of 1983–1989
Abstract: This paper focuses on two aspects. First, it looks at the trends in female
employment at the federal level over a period of six years, from 1983 to 1989, based on
data from the Federal Government’s Civil Servants Census Reports, using three years,
1983, 1986, 1989. The second aspect of the paper is to highlight the fact that not all the
information that is collected is published gender-wise. This is very important from the
point of view of working women as it can also have strong policy implications with
regard to the advancement of women for which the Government has set up a separate
ministry. The ignorance of the Ministry of Women’s Development about this aspect, that
is, of available unpublished information, is surprising.
The paper is structured as follows. After a brief discussion of data and
methodology, the results are presented in Section 2. Section 3 discusses the data which
are collected but not published at the disaggregate level which has adverse implications
for women employees at the policy level. The conclusions and policy recommendations
are presented in the final and fourth section of this paper.
The data used in this paper are taken from the Government of Pakistan (1983,
1986, 1989). The statistics reported in these reports are classified by service groups into
Secretariat, Attached Departments, Subordinate Offices, Other Offices, and in the
Autonomous/Semi-Autonomous bodies by Basic Pay Scale (BPS) and gender. The
Censuses show that for these years no female employee of the regular civil service is
reported in BPS-22 for all the categories, and also none is reported in BPS 21 in 1989.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1041-1054
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1041-1054.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1041-1054

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aasim M. Husain
Author-X-Name-First: Aasim M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Husain
Author-Workplace-Name: ABN AMRO Bank, N. V., Karachi.
Title: Long-run Determinants of Private Saving Behaviour in Pakistan
Abstract: Compared to the rapidly-growing economies of Southeast Asia, the growth
performance of the Pakistan economy was significantly weaker during the 1970s and
1980s. While the Southeast Asian countries made substantial progress in improving
living standards, the average standard of living, as measured by the GNP per capita,
was virtually stagnant in Pakistan over this period.
Much of the difference in economic performance between Pakistan and the
Southeast Asian countries is often attributed to the low rates of saving and
investment in Pakistan.1 Indeed, the differences in rates of domestic investment are
often attributed to the differences in rates of domestic saving. Hence, the disparity in
the growth performance between Pakistan and the Southeast Asian countries over
the past two decades relates to the differences in saving rates, and an understanding
of the fundamental determinants of saving in Pakistan assumes critical importance.
This paper reviews trend developments in the private saving behaviour in
Pakistan, and compares these trends with those seen in the Southeast Asian
economies during the period since 1970. Using co-integration analysis, the long-run
properties of Pakistan’s saving rate are examined, with a view to identifying the
main determinants of saving.
The principal finding is that about one-half of the trend increase in saving
appears to be related to financial development and deepening. In contrast to the
results obtained by Faruqee and Husain (1994) and Husain (1995) for the Southeast
Asian countries, demographics appear not to have played an important role in
determining saving behaviour in Pakistan, possibly because high rates of population
growth during the past three decades resulted in a virtually unchanged demographic
structure of the population.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1057-1066
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1057-1066.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1057-1066

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aqdas Ali Kazmi
Author-X-Name-First: Aqdas Ali
Author-X-Name-Last: Kazmi
Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry of Commerce, Islamabad.
Title: An Econometric Estimation of Tax-discounting in Pakistan
Abstract: The debt neutrality hypothesis which has been a source of major controversies in
the theory of public finance, and macroeconomics has at the same time generated a vast
literature on the implications of budgetary deficits and public debt on various subsectors/
variables of the economy, such as inflation, interest rates, current account deficit,
etc. Tax discounting has been one of the fields of research associated with debt
neutrality. The econometric estimation of some of the standard models of taxdiscounting
has shown that consumer response to fiscal policy in Pakistan reflects
neither the extreme Barro-like rational anticipation of future tax liabilities nor the
Buchanan-type extreme fiscal myopia. It broadly follows a middle path between these
extremes.
The controversy relating to debt neutrality is quite old in economic theory.
However, due to its serious and far-reaching implications for the formulation of fiscal
policy and macroeconomic management, the issues of debt neutrality have assumed a
foremost position in economic theoretisation and empirical testing.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1067-1077
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1067-1077.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1067-1077

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tahir Hijazi
Author-X-Name-First: Tahir
Author-X-Name-Last: Hijazi
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: Role of Institutions in the Industrial Development of Pakistan
Abstract: This study examines why a perverse kind of industrialisation developed in
Pakistan. Following independence, the Pakistan government embarked on
industrialisation proclaimed as a short-cut to eradicate poverty and reduce
unemployment. But after four decades, it is still considered among the poorest countries
of the world, with per capita annual income of only $375. The share of manufacturing
sector in the GDP grew from a nominal base in 1947 to 19.7 percent in 1990, but it did
not help raise the standard of living. Pakistan's economy grew eight-fold' during this
period whereas some other developing countries grew many times tenfold.'-
Adopting a historical perspective reveals a perverse kind of industrialisation in
Pakistan, which inhibits its ability to eradicate poverty [Sixth Five-year Plan 1983-88
(1982)]. By a perverse kind of industrialisation, I mean a degenerate system of
industrial development which, instead of helping the national economy to expand and
grow retards its process..It implies selective industrial investment which is more capitalintensive,
remains import-dependent, ignores forward and backward linkages, ensures
the dominance of larger oligopolists firms, produces luxury goods, does not help
increase productivity, and is located in a few urban centres. This level of industry
creates relatively few jobs, depends on imported materials and instead of increasing
value-added at home, and puts extra pressure on foreign exchange reserves which the
economy must meet by exporting primary goods. The absence of forward and backward
linkages restricts opportunities for industrial expansion and larger firms relying on
foreign technology employ relatively few workers; and they produce luxury goods for
higher income brackets, all of which does not benefit the masses. Such perverse
characteristics of industrialisation contribute little to the eradication of poverty.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1081-1090
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1081-1090.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1081-1090

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mehtab S. Karim
Author-X-Name-First: Mehtab S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Karim
Author-Workplace-Name: The Aga Khan University, Karachi.
Title: Changing Demographic, Social, and Economic Conditions in Karachi City, 1959–94: A Preliminary Analysis
Abstract: Kingsley Davis (1961) had argued that the reason that the ancient cities failed
to survive was that they were too deadly. He suggested that “three of their (cities)
main traits....the crowding of many people in little space, their dependence on
widespread contacts (due to in-migration), and their wealth...laid them open to
contagious diseases, environmental contamination, occasional starvation and
warfare”. Even in the medieval age, some European cities provide examples of such
problems; but especially so following the Industrial Revolution. Do the events of the
1980s and the 1990s in Karachi suggest that the city may be heading in the same
direction.
Recently, The Times London in a lead article in November 1994, labelled
Karachi as a “City of Riches and Shattered Dreams”. It further said that Karachi had
grown into a megalopolis where life moved fast and street violence had become a
norm. Indeed, more than 65 percent of Pakistan’s industries and 80 percent of its
finance, banking, and business are concentrated in the city and people come to it
from all over the country to find jobs and fulfil their dreams [Husain (1994)]. During
the past decade, street violence in the form of ethnic clashes has become a sort of
regular event in Karachi. At times, these clashes have been more frequent and even
bloodier than the ones before. According to the local newspaper accounts, between
1985 and 1988 (in four years), about 400 people died in Karachi due to violence,
which has increased substantially over time. Thus, while the number of violent
deaths remained between 350–500 during 1991–93, in 1994 alone the number
exceeded 1,100, and during the first three months of 1995, over 300 persons have
died due to violence.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1093-1106
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1093-1106.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1093-1106

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rizwan Tahir
Author-X-Name-First: Rizwan
Author-X-Name-Last: Tahir
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: Defence Spending and Economic Growth: Re-examining the Issue of Causality for Pakistan and India
Abstract: What is the impact of carrying a heavy defence burden on the country’s economic
development and growth? Views expressed in the literature1 argue that national defence
is a consumption good which reduces economic growth by reducing saving and capital
investment. A number of empirical studies have investigated the possible trade-offs
between defence spending and other government expenditures like health and education.
Empirical evidence concerning the relationship between defence spending and economic
growth for developed countries is not inconsistent with the view that defence reduced
the resources available for investment and hurts economic growth. See, for example,
Benoit (1973). The evidence for developing countries, however, has not been entirely
consistent or conclusive.2 Benoit (1978), using data on 44 less developed countries
(LDCs) for the period 1950–65, found a strong positive association between defence
spending and growth of civilian output per capita. Fredericksen and Looney (1982),
using data for the period 1960–78 on a large cross-section, concluded that increased
defence spending assists economic growth in resource-rich countries and not in
resource-constraint ones. Using a sample of 54 LDCs pertaining to the period 1965–73,
Lim (1983) found that defence spending hurts economic growth. Biswas and Ram
(1986) in a sample of 58 LDCs for time-periods 1960–70 and 1970–77, using
conventional and augmented growth models, concluded that military expenditures
neither help nor hurt economic growth to any significant extent.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1109-1117
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1109-1117.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1109-1117

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zafar Iqbal
Author-X-Name-First: Zafar
Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal
Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School in Economics, Tilburg University, The Netherlands.
Title: Constraints to the Economic Growth of Pakistan: A Three-gap Approach
Abstract: The development of the two-gap model [Chenery and Bruno (1962); Chenery
and Strout (1966); Mckinnon (1964); and Weisskopf (1972)] was an important
contribution to the literature of economic development. The two-gap model deals with
the interactions between the savings constraint and the foreign exchange constraint in
the determination of economic growth in an economy. The savings constraint refers to
the situation when the growth of an economy is limited by the availability of domestic
savings for investment, and the foreign exchange constraint refers to the growth of an
economy being limited by the availability of foreign exchange for importing capital
goods. More recently, there has been increasing interest in the three-gap model,
introducing fiscal constraint as a third gap limiting the growth prospects of highly
indebted developing economies [Bacha (1990); Solimano (1990) and Taylor (1993,
1994)]. The fiscal constraint is intended to reflect the impact of the availability of
resources to finance the public investment required to support a given level of potential
output. These constraints are selected for analysis because of their direct impact on
economic growth of Pakistan.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1119-1133
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1119-1133.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1119-1133

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Syed Mubashir Ali
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mubashir
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Hussain B. Siyal
Author-X-Name-First: Hussain B.
Author-X-Name-Last: Siyal
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Mehboob Sultan
Author-X-Name-First: Mehboob
Author-X-Name-Last: Sultan
Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad.
Title: Women's Empowerment and Reproductive Choices
Abstract: The 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development
(ICPD) in their Programme of Action calls for promoting gender equality and equity
and the empowerment of women. Furthermore, the conference also recognises the basic
rights of all couples and individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number,
spacing, and timing of their children, as well as the right to the information and the
means to do so [Sadik (1994)].
The need for such a programme of action arose in view of the fact that in many
countries, including Pakistan, women are generally least empowered and hence they
have negligible rights to decide about the number of their children. According to the
1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, over 54 percent women either
wanted to stop having children or wanted to wait at least two years before having
another child [Ali and Rukanuddin (1992)]. However, in practice, all of these women
were not protected; instead, only 12 percent were practising contraception [Shah and
Ali (1992)]. The low incidence of family planning practice on the part of the women is
not so much due to the dearth of family planning services; rather it is due to resistance
by husbands, in-laws, and other peer pressures. Demographers like Caldwell (1982) and
Cain et al. (1979) also contend that in patriarchal societies it is the patriarchy which
militates against the fertility decline.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1137-1150
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1137-1150.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1137-1150

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khaleda Manzoor
Author-X-Name-First: Khaleda
Author-X-Name-Last: Manzoor
Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad.
Title: Utilisation, Excess Capacity, and Performance of Family Welfare Centres in a District of Punjab
Abstract: The Eighth Five-Year Plan has allocated Rs 9.1 billion to the Population Welfare
Programme (PWP) which constitutes 0.5 percent of the total plan size of Rs 1700.5
billion (in 1992-93). During 1992-93, a total of Rs 828.9 million was allocated to PWP,
of which 85 percent was reported to be utilised, which amounts to Rs 702.87 million.
Service delivery of family planning is a major focus and component of the PWP.
The major service delivery sources include Family Welfare Centres (FWCs) in both the
government and NGO sectors, Mobile Service Units (MSUs), Reproductive Health
Services (RHS), Village-based Family Planning Workers (VBFPW), Hakeems, and
Private Medical Practitioners, etc.
All sources of delivery of family planning during the three decades of
programme efforts have achieved the maximum extent of effective coverage, estimated
to be between 15-20 percent in early 1990s but no more than 5 percent to rural
population [Rukanuddin and Hardee Cleveland (1992)]. Besides limited coverage, the
low level of accessibility and limited contraceptive availability, particularly to rural
populace, have also seriously affected the performance of the PWP. These concerns
have been addressed in the Eighth Five-Year Plan, which aims at increasing the urban
coverage from 54 percent to 100 percent and the rural coverage from 5 percent to 70
percent. The major mode of service delivery to increase the rural coverage is the
Village-based Family Planning Worker (VBFPW) scheme that would offer FP services
to approximately 12000 villages. This scheme, however, focuses on non-clinical and
temporary methods only.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1151-1164
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1151-1164.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1151-1164

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Syed Sajidin Hussain
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Sajidin
Author-X-Name-Last: Hussain
Author-Workplace-Name: PATA integrated Agricultural Development Project, Saidu Sharif, Swat.
Title: Analysis of Allocative Efficiency in Northern Pakistan: Estimation, Causes, and Policy Implications
Abstract: Realising productivity gains in agriculture is an important challenge for Pakistan.
With a fast-growing population (3.1 percent per year), it is difficult for the economy to
meet domestic food requirements. Like most less developed countries, yields of most
crops in Pakistan are lower than the yields realised by researchers in on-farm
experiments conducted in the farmers’ fields. The average yield gap between the
farmers’ current yields and what would be profitable and feasible, given existing
technology, is reported to be 30 to 40 percent [Byerlee (1987)].
Byerlee (1987), however, suggests that there is a potential for increasing
productivity in most of the irrigated areas of Pakistan through the use of new inputs and
a more efficient use of the existing inputs to exploit the genetic potential of the existing
varieties. He argues that the wide array of new inputs vastly increases the complexity of
crop management. The technical skills required to use the new inputs efficiently are
much greater than the simple skills needed to adopt varietal changes. Hence, with more
complex technological options and a more dynamic environment, the potential for
economic inefficiency (both technical and allocative) is substantially increased.
The purpose of this paper is to measure farm-specific allocative efficiency and the
effect of management variables on allocative efficiency of wheat producers in an
irrigated area in northern Pakistan. This will assist researchers, extension agents, and
policy-makers to identify the ways and means to increase wheat productivity in Pakistan.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1167-1180
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1167-1180.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1167-1180

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ahmad Tariq
Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tariq
Author-Workplace-Name: Johnson and Phillips Industries, Lahore.
Author-Name: Qazi Najeeb
Author-X-Name-First: Qazi
Author-X-Name-Last: Najeeb
Author-Workplace-Name: International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Title: Export Earnings Instability in Pakistan
Abstract: Since independence, Pakistan, like many other countries, has been facing the
problem of the balance-of-payments deficit. A number of policies have been introduced
during different periods for rapid and continuous growth in Pakistan’s exports. These
policies, like import substitution, devaluation of the rupee in 1972, export finance
schemes, tax concessions, delinking of the rupee from the U.S. dollar in 1982, etc., have
helped in boosting its exports to some extent but not enough to stabilise its export
earnings. The fluctuations in export earnings are known to have serious consequences.
Specifically, unstable export earnings affect the investment decisions by hindering the
continuous import of industrial raw materials. This, in turn, impedes the growth of the
industrial sector. Moreover, it causes fluctuations in the GNP and promotes uncertainty
in the economy. This uncertainty plays a decisive role in the private sector’s hesitation to
invest in the large-scale manufacturing industries, thereby hampering the country’s
overall development. Keeping in view the possibly serious consequences of export
earnings instability, a study exploring its causes is in order. Concentration of exports on
a few commodities and exporting to only a few markets is among the possible
explanations of the current instability in Pakistan’s export earnings. Due to commodity
concentration, the chances of offsetting the impact of adverse price movements in the
international market are reduced. This commodity concentration is often associated with
the concentration on primary products and is, therefore, the basis for a policy of
diversification away from primary products. A diversification away from primary
products and towards industrial goods is desirable for another reason, not central to this
paper; and that is that the terms of trade argument which claims that the relative prices of
the primary products have increased slowly relative to the prices of the manufactured
goods in the international market.
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 1181-1189
Volume: 34
Issue: 4
Year: 1995
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1995/Volume4/1181-1189.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:34:y:1995:i:4:p:1181-1189