Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naushin Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Naushin Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Karin Ringheim Author-X-Name-First: Karin Author-X-Name-Last: Ringheim Author-Workplace-Name: USAID, Department of Population Research, Washington, D.C. Title: Factors Affecting Contraceptive Use in Pakistan Abstract: Using data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey of 1990-91, this study examines the effect of selected socio-cultural and supply factors on contraceptive use as reported by married women of reproductive ages. In addition to the expected positive relationship of woman’s age, number of living children, education, and place of residence with contraceptive use, it is theorised that there are five factors potentially affecting fertility regulation in the socio-structural context of Pakistan. These include the extend of communication between husbands and wives, religious beliefs, female autonomy, son preference, and the family planning service and supply variables. Using logistic regression analysis, the results of the study indicate that the explanatory power of these five factors is significant in affecting the use of contraception in both urban and rural areas. While knowledge of a source for family planning is the strongest predictor of contraceptive use, husband-wife communication and religious attitudes are also significant. The fact that the inclusion of the theoretical variables dampens the predictive effect of the primary and secondary education for women leads to the speculation that while the extremely low levels of literacy among women must be addressed through government commitment to universal education, scarce family planning programme resources can be focused more effectively on promoting spousal communication, about family size and contraceptive use, and on soliciting the support of religious leaders to counteract the misperceptions about Islamic teachings on family planning and reliance on fate. With high quality and accessible services, these measures could go a long way towards providing couples with the means to meet their reproductive goals. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1-22 Volume: 35 Issue: 1 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume1/1-22.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:1:p:1-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syeda Fizza Gillani Author-X-Name-First: Syeda Fizza Author-X-Name-Last: Gillani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Risk-sharing in Rural Pakistan Abstract: Risk-sharing is a fundamental form of economic behaviour. It can occur through formal insurance markets, informal family arrangements, community support, legal institutions (such as bankruptcy), or government tax-transfer programmes. Whatever the mechanism used to share risk, the extent of risk mitigation can greatly influence the welfare of all members of society. Understanding the degree of risk-pooling in society is important for policy-makers, since insufficient risk pooling may provide a basis for government intervention. Alternatively, if risks are being pooled adequately without the help of the government, government risk-sharing may be redundant. This study explores the implications of the risk-sharing model, namely, that households which pool risks, either through formal markets or informal personal arrangements, experience correlated changes in their consumption through time. It conducts tests of within-village, across-village, within-district, and across-district risksharing using a new Pakistani panel data set—the Pakistan Food Security Management Survey—collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D. C. Unlike studies for other Less Developed Countries (LDCs), these tests find very little or almost no evidence of risk-sharing among unrelated individuals within- and across-villages in the rural sector of Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 23-48 Volume: 35 Issue: 1 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume1/23-48.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:1:p:23-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aasim M. Husain Author-X-Name-First: Aasim M. Author-X-Name-Last: Husain Author-Workplace-Name: International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C. Title: Private Saving and Its Determinants: The Case of Pakistan Abstract: Despite a gradual increase over the past twenty years, the rate of private saving in Pakistan remains low as compared with many of the developing economies in Asia. Empirical analysis of the long-run behaviour of saving in Pakistan suggests that financial deepening, though still at a relatively early stage of development, accounted for much of the rise in private saving. In contrast with the experience in the economies of Southeast Asia, where the demographic structure of the population changed significantly over the past two decades, high rates of population growth have kept the age structure of Pakistan’s population virtually unchanged and appear to account for the disparity between the saving rates in Pakistan and Southeast Asia. Hence, an increase in the long-run rate of private saving will likely require further financial development and a decline in the growth rate of the population. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 49-70 Volume: 35 Issue: 1 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume1/49-70.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:1:p:49-70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maarten De Zeeuw Author-X-Name-First: Maarten De Author-X-Name-Last: Zeeuw Author-Workplace-Name: Foundation for Economic Research, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Title: The Household Integrated Economic Survey of Pakistan 1990-91:Internal and External Consistency Abstract: After the appearance of Morgenstem's The Accuracy of Economic Observations (1950), data quality should be a matter of abiding concern among economists. The present paper highlights the theme by subjecting the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 1990 ,91 to a consumer test. From among all remarkable results, a 10 percent "shortfall" of the reported share of workers in agriculture as compared to the Labour Force Survey stands out. Reservations are also made with regard to employment status of workers, income dynamics for employees and self-employed, foreign and domestic remittances, Ipter-household transfers, improverishment, the marginal propensity to consume, per capita income, and direct tax incidence. If these issues at stake are not inexplicable, at least some elucidation is obviously required. Recommendations for improving HIES data quality emphasise checking on internal and external consistency, and the elucidation of seemingly remarkable results. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 71-84 Volume: 35 Issue: 1 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume1/71-84.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:1:p:71-84 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: W.R. Brock Author-X-Name-First: W.R. Author-X-Name-Last: Brock Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Holland. Author-Name: J.J. Van Dijk Author-X-Name-First: J.J. Van Author-X-Name-Last: Dijk Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Holland. Author-Name: E.B.K. Van Koesveld Author-X-Name-First: E.B.K. Van Author-X-Name-Last: Koesveld Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Holland. Author-Name: S. Wagenaar Author-X-Name-First: S. Author-X-Name-Last: Wagenaar Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Holland. Title: Economic Development and Infrastructure: The Case of Balochistan Province Abstract: In designing a future road network, public budget constraints force administrations to make choices. The objective of economic development requires that both efficiency and equity are taken into account. The present analysis operationalises these two concepts by social and economic accessibility in Balochistan. It suggests priorities which can serve as an input for the design of the future road network. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 85-93 Volume: 35 Issue: 1 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume1/85-93.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:1:p:85-93 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rehana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Impact of Socio-economic Factors on Fertility Behaviour: A Cross-country Analysis Abstract: International comparisons of fertility behaviour are based on two crucial assumptions. First, it is assumed that the response of fertility rates to socio-economic factors is similar across different age-cohorts of female population in the reproductive age-group. Second, it is assumed that country-specific effects do not influence the parameter estimates of the fertility model. Recent availability of cross-country data for a number of years allows us to pool data for more than 100 countries for the period 1955–1985 and estimate the fertility model. The results show that the impact of socio-economic factors differs across different age-cohorts; particularly, the negative impact of improvements in female status on the fertility rates is higher among the younger age-cohorts. Similarly, our results show that cross-country differences affect fertility rates significantly. However, the differences tend to diminish as countries become more developed. These results indicate that not only cross-country differences but also the changes in age-composition of female population should be taken into account in formulating the policies to control fertility and population growth. Furthermore, improvements in female literacy turn out to be the most effective tool to control population growth. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 107-128 Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume2/107-128.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:2:p:107-128 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Kurosaki Author-X-Name-First: Takashi Author-X-Name-Last: Kurosaki Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Developing Economies, Tokyo, Japan. Title: Government Interventions, Market Integration, and Price Risk in Pakistan’s Punjab Abstract: This paper empirically examines the spatial and intertemporal price relations of grains in Pakistan’s Punjab. The salient feature of the paper is that quantity variables such as market surplus and government release are incorporated in the price arbitrage model to quantify the effects of government interventions. Regression analysis using three-year crosssection data shows that the farm-gate prices of wheat after harvest are mostly explained by the government support price while those of Basmati paddy have more unexplained variation. This difference could be due to a difference in the price support mechanism. Investigation on intertemporal price relations shows that wholesale wheat prices regularly increase at the rate of storage costs in the first half of a food year, and that the price rise is repressed by the government release in the second half only in a normal year. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 129-144 Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume2/129-144.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:2:p:129-144 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Iqbal Zafar Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Iqbal Author-X-Name-Last: Zafar Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Rural Sociology at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Title: Husband-wife Roles as a Correlate of Contraceptive and Fertility Behaviour Abstract: In this paper, an investigation of reproductive behaviour within the socioeconomic and cultural frameworks is carried out to find the extent to which socioeconomic, cultural, and attitudinal variables (such as husband and wife’s education, family income, husband’s occupation, child mortality, exposure to the mass media, and husbandand- wife relationship in terms of egalitarian roles, role-segregation, husband’s authority, and domination in family and non-family decisions) influence the fertility decision-making process. The quantitative and qualitative techniques are used for exploring the respondents’ views regarding contraceptive and fertility behaviour. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to identify new meaningful underlying variables and to reduce the multi-dimensionality of variables. The chi-square test is employed to explore the relationships between the predictor variables and the dependent variables. Multiple linear regression is also used to establish the relative importance of each of the predictor variables. Bivariate, multiple linear regression and qualitative analysis demonstrate that preferences for smaller families and contraceptive use were found to be consistently associated with modern attitudes and behaviour towards the husband-and-wife relationship. Family income, husband’s occupation, child mortality, and age at marriage offered no explanation of the reproductive behaviour. It is concluded that cultural setting and tradition exert an important influence on reproductive behaviour independent of development in economic realities. It is suggested that for the attainment of demographicdevelopmental objectives, the issue of women’s status is not incidental; it is essential. The argument is not that improvements in women’s status need to be pursued only for population policy purposes, but rather that they comprise a crucial social developmental goal in their own right. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 145-170 Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume2/145-170.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:2:p:145-170 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shahnawaz Malik Author-X-Name-First: Shahnawaz Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Title: Determinants of Rural Poverty in Pakistan: A Micro Study Abstract: Using micro survey data obtained from a Punjab village we study a large number of rural-specific and household-specific variables besides landholding, in an attempt to determine their role in raising levels of living of rural masses. We investigated the reasons as to how some of the landless households managed to escape poverty whereas some cultivating households failed to do so. The main factors responsible for this outcome were found to be favourable/unfavourable distribution by size of landholding, household size, educational attainment, dependency ratio, participation rates, female-male ratio, and age of the household head. The landless households escaping poverty, however, remained in a low-income category. Whereas our analysis highlighted the importance of institutional setting for a better distribution of assets and access to resources, at the same time it pointed to the fact that numerous non-farm activities also enable the rural households to generate incomes and thus avoid poverty. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 171-187 Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume2/171-187.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:2:p:171-187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Musleh-Ud Din Author-X-Name-First: Musleh-Ud Author-X-Name-Last: Din Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ejaz Ghani Author-X-Name-First: Ejaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ghani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Sarfraz K. Qureshi Author-X-Name-First: Sarfraz K. Author-X-Name-Last: Qureshi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Scale and Scope Economies in Banking: A Case Study of the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan Abstract: This paper examines the scale and scope efficiency of the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan. Using the production approach to measuring bank outputs and costs, a translog cost function is estimated to provide an assessment of the bank’s scale and scope efficiency, and to quantify the extent to which its production costs are sensitive to size and output mix. Our results show that the bank enjoys both overall and product-specific economies of scale and, therefore, there exists scope for the bank to expand its operations at declining average cost. We show that even though bank branches in all size categories enjoy economies of scale, the extent of such economies is larger for branches operating at a smaller scale of production. This implies that as the bank branches grow larger in size in terms of both loan and deposit accounts, they move closer to attaining constant returns to scale. It is also shown that the marginal costs of servicing both loan and deposit accounts decline as bank branches grow larger in size in terms of either the number of loans or the number of deposits. This confirms that branches operating at a larger scale of production have attained greater cost efficiency in terms of servicing the loan and deposit accounts. As regards economies of scope, our results show that the bank’s production technology is characterised by cost complementarity, which gives rise to cost savings through the joint production of loan and deposit accounts. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 203-213 Volume: 35 Issue: 3 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume3/203-213.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:3:p:203-213 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Karamat Ali Author-X-Name-First: Karamat Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Author-Name: Abdul Hamid Author-X-Name-First: Abdul Author-X-Name-Last: Hamid Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Title: Technical Change, Technical Efficiency, and Their Impact on Input Demand in the Agricultural and Manufacturing Sectors of Pakistan Abstract: Technical change has been considered as one of the most important determinants of economic growth. In developed economies, a proportionately higher percentage of GDP growth is attributable to technological progress and technical efficiency. However, technical change in developing countries is in its early stages and increased use of factor inputs is still the dominant source of economic growth. An attempt has been made in this paper to analyse technological progress and technical efficiency and their contribution to economic growth along with other factors of production by using more efficient methods in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors of Pakistan. There are a few studies on technological growth and technical efficiency change in Pakistan but they suffer from certain limitations. Most of them use the terms of technical change and productivity synonymously. Further, all of them use Hicks’s formula of neutral technical change and assume that technical change is happening at a constant rate. We have attempted to measure technical change, technical efficiency, and productivity in the form of the Hicks neutral technical change as well as in the form of variable and continuous and discrete technical change. Besides, this paper also analyses the impact of technical change on input demand (i.e., its impact on labour and capital demand) and examines the issue of technical change being either labour-saving or capital-saving. We found that technical change was taking place at a continuous and variable rate. The major contributor to the growth of output and value-added in both sectors was capital, contributing over 50 percent. Labour share was about 20 percent in the agriculture sector and about 10 percent in the manufacturing sector. Technical change share was very significant in manufacturing but not so in agriculture. The manufacturing sector in Pakistan has grown at an annual rate of about 6 percent during 1970s and at 8.7 percent during 1980s, and its share in GDP has increased from 16.5 percent to about 19 percent, but it has failed to generate new employment opportunities for the labour force. The employment growth rate is only about 2 percent. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 215-228 Volume: 35 Issue: 3 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume3/215-228.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:3:p:215-228 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Winfried Manig Author-X-Name-First: Winfried Author-X-Name-Last: Manig Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Rural Development, University of Göttingen, Germany. Title: The Importance of the Informal Financial Market for Rural Development Financing in Developing Countries: The Example of Pakistan Abstract: The informal credit market is of crucial importance in the rural areas in Pakistan, even after decades of considerable development of formal credit organisations and of subsidised credit programmes by the government. This is due mainly to the fact that informal credit relations are embedded in the economic, political, and social interaction networks of the inhabitants in the rural areas. These interaction networks also maintain the direct credit costs and the transaction costs at a low level. However, the national development policy underestimates or even negates the significance of the informal financial market. Here, political action is required for initiating change. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 229-239 Volume: 35 Issue: 3 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume3/229-239.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:3:p:229-239 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali Muhammed Khushk Author-X-Name-First: Ali Muhammed Author-X-Name-Last: Khushk Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agricultural Economics, Wye College, University of London. Author-Name: Laurence E.D. Smith Author-X-Name-First: Laurence E.D. Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agricultural Economics, Wye College, University of London. Title: A Preliminary Analysis of the Marketing of Mango in Sindh Province, Pakistan Abstract: Fruits are an important sub-sector in the agricultural sector of Pakistan. This paper describes the structure and operation of the marketing channels, and quantifies marketing margins of producers and other market agencies. Survey results show that more than 90 percent of producers sold harvesting rights to their orchards to contractors. The producers’ share of the retail price was calculated to be 25 percent. The other shares were 43 percent for contractors, 6 percent for commission agents, 5 percent for wholesalers, and 21 percent for retailers. Other indicators reported here are net profit margins, duration and type of contract, method of contract price determination, mode of payment, and conduct of auctions. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 241-255 Volume: 35 Issue: 3 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume3/241-255.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:3:p:241-255 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Franque Grimard Author-X-Name-First: Franque Author-X-Name-Last: Grimard Author-Workplace-Name: McGill University, Montréal, Canada. Title: Does the Poor’s Consumption of Calories Respond to Changes in Income? Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between income and calorie consumption for households in developing countries. Recent papers have questioned the strength of this relationship on the basis of several measurement problems that tend to overstate the responsiveness of calories consumption to income. The paper uses a household data set from Pakistan and estimates calories income elasticities for rural and urban households. The estimation takes into account the concerns raised by Behrman and Deolalikar (1987) and Bouis and Haddad (1992) about quality effects and unobservable variables. The paper finds that the elasticity is significantly different from zero. Furthermore, the relationship appears to be different according to households’ incomes. Poor households’ responsiveness of calories intake to changes in income is greater than that of the entire sample. These results are consistent with the conventional wisdom that existed before the recent criticisms. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 257-283 Volume: 35 Issue: 3 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume3/257-283.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:3:p:257-283 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shahid Javed Burki Author-X-Name-First: Shahid Javed Author-X-Name-Last: Burki Author-Workplace-Name: The World Bank, Washington, D. C. Title: Pakistan: Growth Set Back by Structural Rigidities Abstract: This article has five parts. The first provides an overview of major structural weaknesses in the Pakistani economy—I call them faultlines. The following three parts describe the programme of stabilisation and structural reform introduced by the caretaker administration of Prime Minister Meraj Khalid. This government was in office for 104 days, from November 5, 1996 to February 17, 1997. On February 17, the government headed by Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif took office. The fifth part provides a brief assessment of what lies in Pakistan’s future if the problems created by delayed structural reforms are not addressed adequately and on time. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 315-342 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/315-342.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:315-342 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gustav F. Papanek Author-X-Name-First: Gustav F. Author-X-Name-Last: Papanek Author-Workplace-Name: Boston University, USA. Title: Pakistan’s Development and Asian Experience Abstract: 1. Pakistan not only has to deal with a cash flow problem, it also has to make the difficult structural adjustment of living within its means, after nearly 50 years of failing to do so. 2. Despite large resource inflows and periods of good economic management Pakistan’s per capita growth has been less than half of that in rapidly growing Asian economies. The country has therefore failed to reduce poverty as much as it could have. 3. This performance was the result of inadequate export growth, savings and attractiveness to foreign private investment. Two periods of good economic management show the impressive potential of the economy. 4. The heart of an appropriate economic strategy is to make non-traditional exports more profitable. 5. It is appropriate to emphasise the need for further decontrol and greater reliance on the market. But government has an important role in providing infant industry incentives for exports and compensating for externalities. 6. To maintain political support for reforms government must allocate fairly the pain and gains, and reduce corruption. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 343-382 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/343-382.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:343-382 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John C. Caldwell Author-X-Name-First: John C. Author-X-Name-Last: Caldwell Author-Workplace-Name: Health Transition Centre, Australian National University, Canberra. Title: A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition Abstract: The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 385-398 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/385-398.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:385-398 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John W. Mellor Author-X-Name-First: John W. Author-X-Name-Last: Mellor Author-Workplace-Name: John Mellor Associates, Inc. Washington, D. C. Title: Accelerating Agricultural Growth—Is Irrigation Institutional Reform Necessary? Abstract: The right to the flow of income from water is vigorously pursued, protected, and fought over in any arid part of the world. Pakistan is of course no exception. Reform of irrigation institutions necessarily changes the rights to water, whether it be those of farmers, government, or government functionaries. Those perceived rights may be explicit and broadly accepted, or simply takings that are not even considered legitimate. Nevertheless they will be fought over. Pakistan has a long history of proposals for irrigation reform, little or none being implemented, except as isolated pilot projects. Thus, to propose major changes in irrigation institutions must be clearly shown to have major benefits to justify the hard battles that must be fought and the goodwill of those who might win those battles for reform. Proponents of irrigation institution reform have always argued the necessity of the reforms and the large gains to be achieved. Perhaps, however, those arguments have not been convincing. This paper will briefly outline the failed attempts at irrigation reform to provide an element of reality to the discussion. It will then proceed to make the case of the urgency of reform in a somewhat different manner to the past. Finally, current major reform proposals will be presented. This paper approaches justification of irrigation reform by focusing on the agricultural growth rate. It does so because that is the critical variable influencing poverty rates and is a significant determinant of over-all economic growth rates. The paper decomposes growth rates and suggests a residual effect of deterioration of the irrigation system that is large and calls for policy and institutional reform. The data are notional, suggesting the usefulness of the approach and paves the way for more detailed empirical analysis and enquiry for the future. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 399-417 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/399-417.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:399-417 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohsin S. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Mohsin S. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C. Title: Government Investment and Economic Growth in the Developing World Abstract: There has been a sea change in the views of the economics profession as well as economic policy-makers over the past decade or so regarding the role of the government in the development process. Indeed, it is now becoming conventional wisdom that government can no longer be a dominant player in economic activities, but rather should restrict itself to providing an “enabling” environment within which the private sector can take the lead and flourish. More specifically, government intervention in the economy has to be designed carefully so as to support the private sector and not inhibit its development. The general acceptance of this paradigm is evident in the steadily declining importance of government activities in the economies of most of the developing world. But does this new paradigm mean that government investment has no role whatsoever in affecting growth in developing countries? Reality is that public investment still represents a large share of total investment in the majority of developing countries, and the question is what role it plays in relation to private investment in stimulating economic growth. The objective of this paper is to ascertain empirically for a large group of developing countries the relative importance of public and private investment in promoting and sustaining growth. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 419-439 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/419-439.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:419-439 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad A. Qadeer Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad A. Author-X-Name-Last: Qadeer Author-Workplace-Name: Urban and Regional Planning, Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada. Title: An Assessment of Pakistan’s Urban Policies, 1947–1997 Abstract: What public policies and programmes have been followed in dealing with mounting urban crisis in Pakistan over the past 50 years? This question has been addressed in the present article. Pakistan’s urban policies fall in three distinct phases, corresponding to evolving political and economic regimes. Yet, they show a fundamental continuity in that they have been driven by ‘plots and public works’ strategy. Pakistan has not been lacking in ‘up-to-date’ policies and programmes. Its urban policies have resulted in notable achievements and pervasive failures. The paper assesses both the achievements and shortfalls and identifies private interests that have benefited at the cost of public welfare. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 443-465 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/443-465.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:443-465 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shahrukh Rafi Khan Author-X-Name-First: Shahrukh Rafi Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad. Author-Name: Shaheen Rafi Khan Author-X-Name-First: Shaheen Rafi Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad. Title: Structural Adjustment, Industrialisation, and Export Promotion Abstract: The main objective of this paper was to explore if trade liberalisation has ushered in the large scale de-industrialisation that is feared by some to follow in its wake and whether it has been successful in enhancing export promotion. We relied on several different kinds of evidence to demonstrate that de-industrialisation has not coincided with the intensive structural adjustment period while export growth has. However, both industrialisation and export promotion in Pakistan have been below potential, below the mean for low income countries and have not even kept pace with progress in this regard in the low income country group. We were not able to establish, possibly due to the paucity of time-series observations, that either industry or exports generated positive externalities for or used resources more productively than the rest of the economy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 467-480 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/467-480.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:467-480 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rashid Faruqee Author-X-Name-First: Rashid Author-X-Name-Last: Faruqee Author-Workplace-Name: Agriculture and Natural Resource Division of the World Bank, Washington, D. C. Title: Role of Economic Policies in Protecting the Environment: The Experience of Pakistan Abstract: Economic policies that ensure efficient allocation of resources is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for creating appropriate environmental incentives. Environment-specific policies are also needed to correct market failures leading to environment problems. Two types of policies can be used to deal with environmental problems—command and control policies and incentive- or market-based policies. Command and control policies involve government mandating of environmental quality standards on emissions, technology type, or input use. Incentive- or market-based policies use prices to try to affect pollution and resource use. Despite the advantages of marketbased approaches, Pakistan, like many other countries, mostly followed control policies. But these policies have often failed to achieve results because regulating institutions lack the financial and technical resources to implement these policies effectively. Pakistan’s brown environmental problems include industrial waste water pollution, domestic waste water pollution, motor vehicle emissions, urban and industrial air pollution, and marine and coastal zone pollution. Economic policy failures are contributing significantly to many of these problems. Green environmental problems affect irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, forests, and rangelands. In irrigated agriculture, economic policies, such as subsidies on irrigation water, have provided incentives for farmers to over use water in their production practices, thereby exacerbating the problem of waterlogging and salinity. Deforestation and rangeland degradation have resulted, in part, due to lack of property rights in communal forests and lack of incentive for local communities to participate in forest management decisions. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 483-506 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/483-506.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:483-506 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Aslam Khan Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Aslam Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok. Title: Problems and Prospects of Urban Environmental Management in Pakistan Abstract: Discussions on environmental conditions often assume that urbanisation contributes to the degradation of the environment. However, urbanisation per se is not detrimental to the environment. Concentrations of population and economic activities through urbanisation offer opportunities in providing environmental infrastructure and health services costeffectively, because of economies of scale. It also provides opportunities to effectively internalise environmental costs; because concentration of economic activities reduces user charges and costs of tax collection, enforcement, and wastes management, which are essential to environmental protection. Nevertheless, while providing opportunities the process of urbanisation also generates environmental pressures. A nation that is unable to utilise the opportunities and alleviate the pressures through integrated environmental, economic and physical planning finds that mismanaged urbanisation can pose enormous environmental and economic problems that become increasingly difficult to solve with time. Unfortunately, Pakistan is one of the countries which have not managed the process of urbanisation effectively. This paper, after tracing the urbanisation trends in Pakistan, discusses the existing and emerging environmental impacts and risks. The country is at the stage of risk transition where modern risks caused by industrial and traffic pollution, such as chemicals, heavy metals and noise, combine with the traditional risks such as bacteriological and parasitic infections caused by inadequate infrastructure facilities particularly water supply and sanitation. The paper also analyses the responses to urban environmental problems in terms of approaches to sustainable urban development. Finally, it outlines the holistic policy directions to environmentally sound and sustainable urban development, including institutional, regulatory, economic and participatory measures. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 507-523 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/507-523.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:507-523 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ghulam Mustafa Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: Ghulam Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Muhammad Ali Qasim Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Qasim Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Growth of Output and Productivity in Pakistan’s Agriculture: Trends, Sources, and Policy Implications Abstract: The paper aims to review the growth performance of Pakistan’s agriculture from 1950 to 1995. The long-term growth rate of agriculture, although respectable, has exhibited considerable yearly fluctuations even between decades. The period of the fifties and early seventies lacked any growth. Accelerating and high growth rates marked the decade of the sixties but the performance has not been satisfactory since 1979-80 and average growth rates have barely exceeded the population growth rate, with widespread implications for growth of national economy, food security, and social welfare of the masses. Area, modern inputs, and technology have been the major determinants of growth but prices were equally important because of their incentive and disincentive effects. The agriculture price policies adopted during the 1980s are known to have had a negative effect on the development and use of technology in agriculture. In order to boost agricultural productivity, a change in price policy is needed to ensure incentive prices. This could be done by setting agricultural commodity prices at par with corresponding import and export parity prices. A higher investment in research and development can hardly be overemphasised. There is an urgent need to remove the bottlenecks in agricultural input markets since these markets represent the typical monopoly position. To break up the monopoly of registered dealers and to promote competition, free sales in the open market by interested parties and individuals may be allowed. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 527-536 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/527-536.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:527-536 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Takashi Kurosaki Author-X-Name-First: Takashi Author-X-Name-Last: Kurosaki Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo. Title: Milk, Fodder, and the Green Revolution: The Case of Mixed Farming in the Pakistan Punjab Abstract: This paper analyses household decisions in producing cereal crops, green fodder crops, and milk, for the case of mixed farming in the Pakistan Punjab. In the Punjab agriculture, increased household income and increased yields of cereal crops after the Green Revolution have resulted in the growing importance of milk in household economy. Using a sensitivity analysis based on a household model of crop choices under uncertainty, this paper emphasises the constraint that fodder represents for further increases in food-grain output. Results show that the welfare cost of production risk is significant, it is higher for land-poor households, and its significant part is attributable to green fodder price risk. The welfare and supply effects of more elastic fodder demand and increased fodder yields are investigated. These innovations in fodder technology are suggested to have a higher potential to improve household welfare and to induce a robust supply response of cereal crops with respect to their prices, than a crop insurance scheme to hedge against yield risk. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 537-548 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/537-548.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:537-548 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naheed Zia Khan Author-X-Name-First: Naheed Zia Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics at Islamia University, Bahawalpur. Author-Name: Karamat Ali Author-X-Name-First: Karamat Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakaria University. Author-Name: John R. Anania Author-X-Name-First: John R. Author-X-Name-Last: Anania Author-Workplace-Name: Sheladia Associates, Inc., USA. Title: Productivity Constraints of Cholistani Farmers Abstract: This paper examines the factors behind low crop yield in Cholistan. Both the quantitative and qualitative analysis show how the low levels of agricultural productivity in this area may be linked to material and climatic factors. The quantitative analysis is mainly focused on physical factors. The qualitative analysis, however, emphasises that relative inefficiency of agricultural activity in Cholistan reflects the influence of physical, economic, social and, most importantly, climatic factors. The quantitative findings provide valuable insight into various ‘sources of productivity’ in terms of acreage effect, capital input effect and irrigation water availability effect. The size of the positive and significant coefficients on these variables suggest the extent to which one or the other variable effect is prominent in improving the crop yield. The qualitative analysis examines multiple interrelated factors which can be blamed on for relative inefficiency of Cholistani farmers. The hot climate of the area turns out to be the most critical variable in this analysis. Many specific technological drought-mitigating measures are proposed. However, for consistent policy formulation, a thorough study and quantitative evaluation of the potential and practicality of these measures in Cholistan is suggested. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 549-563 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/549-563.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:549-563 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz A. Author-X-Name-Last: Pasha Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan. Author-Name: M. Aynul Hasan Author-X-Name-First: M. Aynul Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Acadia University, Canada. Author-Name: Aisha Ghaus Author-X-Name-First: Aisha Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Author-Name: M. Ajaz Rasheed Author-X-Name-First: M. Ajaz Author-X-Name-Last: Rasheed Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Integrated Social-sector Macroeconometric Model for Pakistan Abstract: While the traditional neoclassical production model postulates that it is the physical inputs such as private capital, labour, land, and technology that are the key determinants of output and economic development, in recent years, however, the social sector variables are also considered to be critical, particularly for the long-run sustainable growth of the economy. If fact, what has been argued in the form of “new growth theories” is that social variables (e.g., education, health, knowledge, etc.) generate “positive externalities” and, thus, may facilitate and foster the process of economic growth and development. Recently, the World Bank, based on a broad cross-country study, found some very interesting results in the above context. According to the World Development Report (1991): about fifty percent of the factor productivity contribution to output growth comes not from traditional physical inputs (capital, labour and land) but is a residual factor. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 567-579 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/567-579.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:567-579 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Rafiq Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Rafiq Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Analysing Educational Waste in the Punjab Schools Abstract: This paper examines educational waste in the Punjab Public Schools. The paper focuses upon three areas: schools’ internal efficiency, school capacity utilisation and student teacher ratio. By using cohort analysis technique, the paper measures waste in flows of students in the education cycle. The results show that repetition and dropout are more prevalent in class I and middle school classes. This implies that after having studied for five to six years in schools, a student finds themselves in a blind alley, not knowing where it all would end up. This also suggests that majority of the schools are located at large distance from the most of the population of the Punjab and students have to travel long distance for attending the schools. The under-utilisation of school capacity is more prevalent in rural area than that of urban areas and girls schools are more under-utilised than the boys schools. The under-utilisation is more widespread in boys schools of urban areas than the girls schools located in same vicinity and girls school in rural areas are more under-utilised than the boys schools. The pervasive theme emerged from results is that girls schools and teachers are mostly under-utilised. This reflects that disadvantage that girls face in Pakistan which may also cause under-utilisation of girls schools. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 581-592 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/581-592.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:581-592 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: A.F. Aisha Ghaus Author-X-Name-First: A.F. Aisha Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz A. Author-X-Name-Last: Pasha Author-Workplace-Name: The Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rafia Ghaus Author-X-Name-First: Rafia Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Social Development Ranking of Districts of Pakistan Abstract: The paper has used eleven indicators relating to the education, health and water supply sectors to rank districts of Pakistan in terms of the level of social development. It also seeks to explain regional variation in the development of social infrastructure across districts. The paper demonstrates the importance of education indicators in determining the overall level of social development, especially in terms of female literacy and enrolment rates. Also, the ranking demonstrate a close correlation between levels of social and economic development spatially with Pakistan. Other important determinants of regional variations in the level of social development include the extent of urbanisation, the administrative development of the district (location of provincial headquarters), and the geographical/economic significance (indicated by the presence of the sea port). Overall, Punjab appears to have the highest level of social development followed by NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan. However, the results indicate substantial variation among districts within a province in the level of social development. Least developed districts within each province are identified as targets for special development allocations within SAP. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 593-614 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/593-614.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:593-614 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Waseem Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Waseem Author-Workplace-Name: St. Anthony’s College, Oxford University. Title: Ethnic Conflict in Pakistan: The Case of MQM Abstract: It has been argued that the current scholarship on ethnicity is focused on the rise of ethnonationalism, without incorporating the possibility and the nature of decline in its scope and intensity. An absolute majority of such movements have indeeded been contained in the postwar era. There is no reason to believe that this trend will reverse in near future. In this context, one can point to Pakistan, Baloch and Sindhi nationalist movements within Pakistan. Our discussion of the rise of the mohajir movement in this paper provides clear indicators of the potential determinants of its decline. It is significant that it is the state at the non-policy level which created a situation of ethnic explosion in urban Sindh. Various macro-level explosive issues revolving around conflicts between politicians and army, federalist and provincial forces, Islamist and secularist elements and, externally, India and Pakistan seriously circumscribed the state’s capacity and will to persue micro-level issues such as urban planning educational and manpower strategies, rural-urban and inter provincial migration and investment in mental infrastructure in general. The abdication of policy by the state rendered it inactive and irrelevent. This ‘residual’ state was represented by officials at the bottom level who controlled a vast number of transactional activities outside the purview of law. Ethnicity emerged as the new source of definition and categorisation of interests and identity formation as the state defaulted on various counts such as citizen orientations, legal protection and security of life and property. In other words, it was not too much of the (Jacobin) state, as primordialists would have us believe, but rather too little of it which produced the mohajir ethnic consciousness. We can maintain that the process of nativisation of mohajir is the product of multiple locational and transactional activities which do not necessarily reflect state policies. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 617-629 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/617-629.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:617-629 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Feroz Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Feroz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: School of Social Work, Howard University, Washington, D. C. Title: Pakistan: Ethnic Fragmentation or National Integration? Abstract: In light of the current ethnic polarisation, this paper briefly enumerates the elements of ethnic conflict in Pakistan. It, then, discusses the economic, demographic, political, and cultural developments taking place in Pakistan which tend to affect the inter-relationships among ethnic communities and between society as a whole and ethnic communities. Evidence is presented to support the argument that despite surface tensions and confrontations, there is an unmistakable trend of greater inter-dependence which can contribute to national integration. The paper further analyses the relationship between ethnicity, class, and the state. It identifies military, bureaucracy, capitalists, and landlords as the principal elements of the “ruling class”, and shows that the different ethnic groups have different class structures and differential participation in military and bureaucracy. It points out the near absence of “cross cutting cleavages” which tends to turn the class and power conflicts into ethnic conflicts. In conclusion, the paper, while underlining the shifting definitional boundaries and relative demographic and cultural homogenisation of the population, argues against the redrawing of provincial boundaries and constitutional recognition of “nationality rights” of fixed ethnic groups. However, it makes a case for the recognition of ethnic diversity in Pakistan, equal treatment of all ethnic groups, and protection and promotion of the languages and cultures of the different ethnic groups. It argues that national unity, security, and integrity will be achieved if the primary emphasis is placed on promoting equity and harmony rather than on suppression of ethnic differences in the name of unity. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 631-645 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/631-645.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:631-645 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: A.R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First: A.R. Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Why Regulate a Privatised Firm? Abstract: The paper examines changes in the levels of efficiency as a result of privatisation in Pakistan. By comparing the growth rates of the privatised industries in pre- and post- Privatisation period, changes in relative prices and the rate of return on equity, it concludes that producers may have indulged in monopolistic exploitation. The paper argues that even if the private firms have lower cost curves as compared to public sector at all the levels of output, at the equilibrium, public-sector firms may have lower cost. Accordingly, the regulation of the private monopoly, especially in the non-traded sector, is absolutely necessary. However, if regulation implies uncertainty and less flexibility to private sector firms, even compared with public sector enterprises, then regulated privatesector firms would be counter-productive. It suggests that the perfect contest-ability model which allows the firm to make sufficient profits and leave them free to take the decisions will be a better alternative. The price caps in line with changes in productivity and the general inflation rates may be a more efficient intervention. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 649-656 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/649-656.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:649-656 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: B.A. Azhar Author-X-Name-First: B.A. Author-X-Name-Last: Azhar Author-Workplace-Name: Research and Statistics, Central Board of Revenue, Islamabad. Title: Tax Pilferage—Causes and Cures Abstract: “Tax pilferage” is an English equivalent of the well-known Urdu phrase “Tax Chori”. The formal expression is tax evasion. To begin with, we draw a distinction between tax evasion and tax avoidance. Tax evasion is defined to include all illegal acts of omission and commission which result in tax loss to the exchequer. According to the United Kingdom Royal Commission on the Taxation of Profits and Income, the term “evasion” To be more specific, evasion refers to the nonpayment of tax as a result of failure to submit a return without reasonable excuse, or underpayment of tax, by submitting an incorrect return where incorrectness is due to gross neglect or fraud, or due to omission, or understatement of income or the deduction of an inadmissible or a fictitious expenditure, or loss. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 657-667 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/657-667.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:657-667 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Razzaque H. Bhatti Author-X-Name-First: Razzaque H. Author-X-Name-Last: Bhatti Author-Workplace-Name: Kashmir Institute of Development Studies, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Muzaffarabad. Title: A Correct Test of Purchasing Power Parity: The Case of Pak-Rupee Exchange Rates Abstract: This paper presents some empirical evidence on long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for eight Pak-rupee exchange rates over the period 1982:1–1994:4. Results obtained from testing for cointegration and coefficient restrictions using the Johansen (1988, 1991) procedure are supportive of PPP in almost all cases. These results are also supported by those obtained from testing for mean reversion in the real exchange rate using the Sims (1988) Bayesian test. One of the conclusions that emerge from these results is that devaluation of Pak-rupee vis-à-vis major industrial currencies under investigation may be unlikely to improve the country’s external competitiveness and, consequently, the deficit in its trade balance. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 671-682 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/671-682.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:671-682 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rehana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Usman Afridi Author-X-Name-First: Usman Author-X-Name-Last: Afridi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Zafar Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Exchange Rate Determination in Pakistan: A Simultaneous Equation Model Abstract: In recent years the gap between real exchange rate (RER) and nominal exchange rate (NER) has widened in Pakistan. A proper understanding of the determinants of real exchange rate can be extremely useful for the management of current account deficit. The results of this study show that the Simultaneous Equation Model gives better results than the Single Equation Model. The estimated coefficients reveal that changes in both monetary and real sector variables affect the equilibrium path of RER. The distinction between traded and non-traded goods can also help in proper real exchange rate management. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 683-692 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/683-692.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:683-692 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Azhar Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Azhar Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Naeem Akhtar Author-X-Name-First: Naeem Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Export Growth of Pakistan: A Decomposition Analysis Abstract: The Constant Market Share Analysis of export growth is used here to capture the world trade effect, the commodity composition effect, the market distribution effect and the competitiveness effect for the periods: 1984-85–1988-89 and 1988-89–1992-93. The results show that Pakistan has maintained her export share in the world market. The market distribution and competitiveness of Pakistani exports have improved significantly between the two periods under study. However, the concentration of Pakistani exports into traditional commodities, whose world demand remained sluggish, has offset the positive contribution of effective market distribution and improved competitive strengths to a large extent. A restructuring of exports (from traditional to non-traditional), an increase in the variety of exports, search for new fast growing markets and an improvement in the economic and political environment are suggested to enhance the export growth of Pakistan in future. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 693-702 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/693-702.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:693-702 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sultan S. Hashmi Author-X-Name-First: Sultan S. Author-X-Name-Last: Hashmi Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad. Title: Shy/Silent Users of Contraceptives in Pakistan Abstract: Based on the data of three national surveys, 1984-85 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS), 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS), and 1994-95 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS), the hypothesis of shy/silent users is tested. These surveys were undertaken with the collaboration of the Westing House, IRD/Macro International and Local Office in Islamabad of the Population Council, New York respectively. The concept of shy/silent users is defined as those respondents who, at the time of interview, did not divulge that they were users of contraceptive methods or traditional ways of preventing conception or birth due to cultural reasons. All three surveys show substantial numbers of shy/silent users. If these numbers are included, the Current Prevalence Rate (CPR) of each survey rises significantly. But the CPR inspite of including shy users, is still far lower than most developing and neighbouring countries. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 705-717 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/705-717.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:705-717 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ghulam Mustafa Zahid Author-X-Name-First: Ghulam Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Zahid Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Mother’s Health-seeking Behaviour and Childhood Mortality in Pakistan Abstract: The paper examines the Mother’s Health-seeking Behaviour and Childhood Mortality in Pakistan. This is based on the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS), a nationally representative survey covering all four provinces of the country. It was found that neonatal, infant, and child mortality rate is the highest among children of mothers aged less than 20 years. Infant and Child mortality rate is likewise higher among first and higher order births than among births of second or third order. It has further found that mortality declines as the length of the birth interval increases. The results reveal that the education of mother has significant effect on the neonatal, infant and child survival, as mother’s education increases the chances of survival of neonatal, infant and child also increases. Health care factors such as antenatal care, place of delivery, assistance at delivery and immunisation also influenced neonatal, infant and child mortality. The paper suggests that for the improvement of the health conditions of children in Pakistan, first, it is necessary that the educational status of the population in general, and of mothers in particular, should be improved, and second, the health services should be accessible and available for the promotion of health care practices. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 719-731 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/719-731.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:719-731 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali Muhammad Author-X-Name-First: Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Muhammad Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Ethnic Fertility Differentials in Pakistan Abstract: Pakistan is a country facing relatively high rates of population growth due to high fertility and decline in mortality rates. This is not only depleting scarce resources but also contributing significantly to environmental degradation. It is, therefore, desirable to know; why fertility rates in Pakistan remain high despite the nationwide family planning coverage since 1965? The objective of this study, therefore, is to establish trends and patterns of fertility among different ethnic groups (on the basis of languages spoken) in Pakistan. The study also explores the major reasons for different fertility behaviour. This is because; there are variety of languages spoken throughout the country having distinct norms, traditions and other customs which directly or indirectly influence fertility and fertility related decisions. The study found that the Balochi or Brohi speaking women had the most children, Sindhi and Pushto speaking women are the women with the second highest fertility levels, Punjabis with the lowest and Urdu speaking almost matching them. The study attributes the high fertility levels among some ethnic groups to low level of education, lower age at first marriage, higher demand for children and greater value placed on number of children. It is also found that fertility levels are high among those ethnic groups who have little knowledge and less use of contraceptives. On the basis of findings, study provides guideline to policy-makers, planners and family planning personnel’s for policy formation to facilitate reduction of fertility in particular context and to target specific sub-groups of population. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 733-744 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/733-744.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:733-744 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ashfaque H. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Ashfaque H. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Mohammad Ali Qasim Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Qasim Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Inflation in Pakistan Revisited Abstract: A notable development in recent years in Pakistan's economic scene has been the sharp pickup in the rate of inflation. In particular, Pakistan has experienced sustained inflation (changes in the CPI) hovering between 11.0 to 13.0 percent range during the last three years (1993-94 to 1995-96). The persistence of inflation at double-digit rates over the three successive years has attracted considerable attention of academics and policy-makers. Not surprisingly, one of the thorniest issues in Pakistan's policy arena today is how to put inflation under effective control. Recent studies on inflation in Pakistan broadly agree on the key factors influencing the rate of inflation, namely, the growth in money supply, the supply side bottlenecks, the adjustment in government-administered prices, the imported inflation (exchange rate adjustment), escalations in indirect taxes, and inflationary expectations. However, these studies do not concur on the relative importance of each of these factors as determinants of inflation. While Nasim (1995) and Hossain (1990) find money supply as the principal factors underlying the rising inflation rate in Pakistan, others suggest that food prices followed by government administered fuel/energy prices and indirect taxation are the primary impetus for the upward inflationary spira1. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 747-759 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/747-759.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:747-759 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Shaukat Ali Author-X-Name-First: M. Shaukat Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: The Planning Commission, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Analysing Inflation: Monetary and Real Theories Abstract: The paper seeks to analyse the inflationary trends observed in Pakistan in the recent past by applying both the monetary and real theories. The former explains inflation in terms of changes in liquidity per unit of real output and velocity whereas the latter makes use of real variables, especially, the structure of economy. Since the ratio between money spending (quantity of money times velocity) and real GDP defines general price level, monetary theory offers a natural tool for analysing inflation. Even factors like raising utility prices by the government or higher expected inflation add to inflation only when the additional demand for money generated by these factors is met with an accommodating increase in money supply (with stable velocity). During FY86 to 96 in Pakistan, money supply grew by 15.4 percent, GDP by 5.3 percent, and velocity by –0.24 percent. This yields an estimated inflation of 9.4 percent, very close to the actual one of 9.2 percent. Interestingly enough, more than half of the money expansion during the 90s emanated from credit for budgetary support, rendering the latter an active source of inflation. Under the real theory, we focused on full-cost-pricing wherein the market value-added price is defined as a weighted sum of various primary costs, e.g., wages, profits, and net indirect taxes. To capture the impact of terms of trade, foreign trade flows were added. It has been estimated that the overall inflation of 9.4 percent during FY86–95 was contributed to the extent of 5.6 points by profits, 2.2 points by wages, 0.9 by net indirect taxes and 0.7 by terms of trade. From policy perspective, monetary analysis has an edge over real analysis as controlling inflation through monetary management is relatively easier than through regulating various costs elements which go into the formation of price. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 761-771 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/761-771.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:761-771 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Aslam Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhary Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Shahid Waseem Anjum Author-X-Name-First: Shahid Waseem Author-X-Name-Last: Anjum Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Macroeconomic Policies and Management of Debt, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan Abstract: The study attempts to analyse the sustainability of fiscal policy in Pakistan. Alternative foreign debt and domestic debt strategies were analysed for formulating meaningful policy guidelines. Such analysis was made consistent with other macro-economic variables like growth of GNP, inflation, and interest rates on debt. Alongwith the identifications of sustainable deficit, required deficit reduction in the actual fiscal deficit under appropriate assumptions was also estimated for three time periods: the 1980s, 1985–95 (recent past), and 1993–98 (the 8th plan period). The averages of the sustainable deficits for the above- cited periods under alterantive scenarios were estimated by utilising a sustainable deficit model for Pakistan. Our empirical findings indicate that Pakistan has been following such macro-economic policies pertaining to fiscal deficit as are not consistent with sustainable deficit. For instance, during the 1980s, deficit of about 4.2 percent of GNP was sustainable against the actual fiscal deficit of 6.5 percent. During the recent past, sustainable deficit was about 5.4 percent of GNP against the actual deficit of 7.4 percent. It was planned that during 1993–98, fiscal deficit will be restricted to 5.5 percent of GNP and GNP growth was expected 7 percent per annum. However, during the first three years of the 8th plan, GNP growth was only 3.6 percent per annum. Our estimates indicated that sustainable fiscal deficit was only 2.7 percent of GNP for this period, given the above actual growth of the economy. The above discussion provides important information regarding unsustainability of fiscal deficit in Pakistan. Throughout the period under analysis, fiscal deficit was not sustainable. As a result, negative impacts of fiscal deficit on the economy were bound to emerge. Our findings regarding sustainability of fiscal deficit have important bearing on macroeconomic policies. Inflation, unemployment, increasing burden of debt and debt-servicing are linked with fiscal deficit. Thus, there is a need to keep the fiscal deficit within a limit; consistent with other macro-economic variables like inflation and debt, etc. Doing so may help to stabilise the economy and to solve the related economic problems. In brief, fiscal deficit need to be reduced for sustainability of the fiscal system and for stable economic growth. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 773-786 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/773-786.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:773-786 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sabur Ghayur Author-X-Name-First: Sabur Author-X-Name-Last: Ghayur Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Islamabad. Title: Labour Market Issues in Pakistan: Unemployment, Working Conditions, and Child Labour Abstract: Pakistan’s labour market is showing its inability to continue the past trend of labour absorption. Generation of additional work opportunities commensurate with labour supplies, increasing by over 3 percent annually, has emerged as the most formidable challenge of the nineties. The labour market is presently confronted with the twin menace of unemployment and underemployment. Although, the rate of unemployment has not as yet assumed serious proportions, the worrying aspect of this 5 percent unemployment is its concentration amongst the youth, and educated and trained. The under-utilisation of manpower, however, is manifested in the form of under-employment. There are more than a-tenth of the employed who find their work unable to keep them busy for 35 hours a week [FBS (1994)]. Further, those employed a-quarter of them find their employment income only meeting half of the subsistence requirements, while a similar proportion find their employment income barely managing to meet the subsistence requirements [NMC (1989)]. Lesser productive and low remunerative work opportunities is thus emerging as the major characteristic of the labour market in Pakistan. The situation in the labour market is serious on yet another account. The working conditions of those lucky found employed, by and large, are not satisfactory, rather they are deplorable. Long working hours and poor working conditions are the normal features of a significant number of work places. A number of them also carry occupational safety and health hazards. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 789-803 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/789-803.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:789-803 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G.M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Period Without a Job After Returning from the Middle East: A Survival Analysis Abstract: Since the mid-1980s Pakistan has faced return flows of its workers from the Middle East on a large scale. The re-employment experience of returning workers has usually been examined by focusing on the unemployment rate. This paper concentrates on ‘duration of unemployment’ and examines the influences of socio-demographic characteristics of returnees and their households on the transition from being ‘not employed’ to being employed by estimating the proportional hazards model. The 1986 ILO survey of return migrant households is the data source used in this study. The majority of returnees who were ‘not employed’ (unemployed and inactive) had been without a job for more than one year. Nearly one-quarter of them had not been working for more than two years. The analysis shows that variables indicating the human capital of return migrants, such as age, education, occupation and work experience, appear to have greater influence on their re-employment probabilities than variables related to economic position, such as savings. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 805-822 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/805-822.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:805-822 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rounaq Jahan Author-X-Name-First: Rounaq Author-X-Name-Last: Jahan Author-Workplace-Name: South Asia Department of Colombia University, New York. Title: The Elusive Agenda: Mainstreaming Women in Development Abstract: A report in 1975 by the International Labour Organisation(ILO) caught world attention by pointing out that while ‘women and girls constitute one-half of the world’s population and one third of the official labour force’ and ‘perform nearly two-thirds of work hours’, they ‘receive only one-tenth of the world’s income and less than one-hundredth of the world’s property.’ Nearly twenty years later, a report by the United Nations-UNDP’s Human Development Report 1994–found that, despite advances in labour-force participation, education and health, women still constitute about two-thirds of the world’s illiterates, hold fewer than half of the jobs on the market and are paid half as much as men for work of equal value. Women make up only about 10 percent of the world’s parliamentarians and less than 4 percent of cabinet members. The report concludes that ‘in no society are women secure or treated equally’. The unmistakable achievements in areas like education and health show that progress is possible, but the continued disparities in others such as income and decision-making indicate that there is still a long way to go. However, the statistical evidence about continued disparities should not detract us from recognising the major achievements of the last two decades. There has been a sea-change in knowledge and awareness. Affirmative action policies have been introduced. Special measures have been designed to remove barriers to women’s participation. Women’s voices are stronger than ever. And women are increasingly learning to take control of their own lives and bring their perspective to bear on decisions affecting their communities, nations, and the planet. These changes in awareness, expertise, policies, laws and women’s voice were brought about by the efforts of many different actors-women’s movements as well as national governments and international donor organisations. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 825-834 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/825-834.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:825-834 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar H. Ismail Author-X-Name-First: Zafar H. Author-X-Name-Last: Ismail Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Gender Differentials in the Cost of Primary Education: A Study of Pakistan Abstract: The paper examines the differences in the cost of primary education by gender and by province. It shows that the growth in enrolment outstrips the growth in the relevant population cohort, except in Sindh, and that this is faster in the case of girls than boys; that the school construction programme for girls in Sindh, unlike other provinces, outstrips the growth in female teacher employment. This is also seen in the boys’ school in Pakistan. Cost of providing education are a function of the availability of teachers and schools, opportunity cost of employment, urbanisation and female literacy. The growth in both recurring and capital outlays and in output costs per student are higher for girls and boys except in Balochistan. Using a pooled time series and analysis the paper concludes that there is an optimal level for the availability of schools per 1000 population [6.02 and 5.67 respectively for girls and boys in the Punjab and 3.88 for boys in NWFP and Balochistan] and for the number of teachers per 1000 students [7.69 for girls and 3.36 for boys]. It suggests the policy prescription to reallocate resources to employing more teachers for boys for greater cost effectiveness. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 835-849 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/835-849.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:835-849 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Zubair Khan Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Zubair Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Pakistan: Prospects for Private Capital Flows and Financial Sector Development Abstract: In less than a decade after the debt crisis of 1982, developing countries have experienced a surge of capital inflows in recent years. This trend became more pronounced in the 1990s resulting in overall balance of payments surpluses and accumulation of reserves. Total private capital inflows to developing countries exceeded $173 billion in 1994, compared to annual average inflows of $34 billion during 1983–90 [World Bank (1995)]. Although the characteristics of capital inflows in this episode are different than in the period prior to the last debt crisis, nevertheless concerns about macroeconomic stability, loss in competitiveness, financial sector vulnerability and excessive borrowing remain the same. While the rise in inflows during 1991–93 was supported in part by low interest rates and weak economic activity in industrial countries, improved economic policies and prospects in most recipient countries also played an important role. The larger share in inflows of those countries that achieved greater progress in economic reforms, is evidence of the importance of recipient country policies. During this period, the composition of private flows to developing countries also became more diversified. Foreign direct investment (FDI) accounted for 45 percent of total equity inflows in 1994, with debt accounting for 32 percent and portfolio flows accounting for the remaining 23 percent. According to a recent assessment [World Bank (1995)], overall private capital flows to developing countries are likely to continue to increase in the medium term, though at a much slower pace than in the early 1990s, growing on average at about 7–10 percent annually. Many countries are at the limit of prudential borrowing, so at most their net liabilities can rise in line with exports. However, within this overall trend, some economies in Asia and several transitional economies are likely to see a larger increase. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 853-883 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/853-883.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:853-883 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Aynul Hasan Author-X-Name-First: M. Aynul Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan Author-Workplace-Name: Acadia University, Canada. Author-Name: Ashfaque H. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Ashfaque H. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: S. Sajid Ali Author-X-Name-First: S. Sajid Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi. Title: Financial Sector Reform and Its Impact on Investment and Economic Growth: An Econometric Approach Abstract: The financial sector is central to economic development as it serves the role of intermediary by mobilising savings and subsequently allocating credit for productive activities. However, in many developing countries including Pakistan, administered interest rate, domestic credit controls, high reserve requirements, use of captive banking system to finance large budgetary requirements of the government and controls on international capital inflows have remained the main features of the monetary policy. These repressive policies had their repercussions in the form of excess liquidity with the banking system, disintermediation of cash flows, segmentation of financial markets, underdeveloped money and capital markets, etc. [McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973)], therefore, argued that low interest rate ceilings unduly restrict the real flow of loanable funds, thus depressing the quantity of productive investment. Financial liberalisation, on the other hand, is defined as policy measures designed to deregulate certain operations of the financial system and transform its structure with a view to achieving a liberalised market oriented system with an appropriate regulatory framework. The financial sector reforms would lead to increase in loanable funds by attracting more household savings to bank deposits due to higher interest rates. This, in turn, would result in greater investment and faster economic growth. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 885-895 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/885-895.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:885-895 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kalbe Abbas Author-X-Name-First: Kalbe Author-X-Name-Last: Abbas Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Musleh-Ud Din Author-X-Name-First: Musleh-Ud Author-X-Name-Last: Din Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ejaz Ghani Author-X-Name-First: Ejaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ghani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Sarfraz K. Qureshi Author-X-Name-First: Sarfraz K. Author-X-Name-Last: Qureshi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Impact of Infrastructure and Agroclimate on the Location of Rural Bank Branches in Pakistan: A Preliminary Assessment Abstract: Rural financial institutions play an important role in development and growth of the agricultural sector. In developing economies some rural areas are adequately served by financial institutions, while others have little or no access to these institutions. This uneven pattern of geographic location of rural bank branches has been attributed largely to regional differences in agroclimatic conditions and infrastructural endowments. We have estimated several alternative specifications which can be helpful in understanding the spatial distribution of commercial bank branches across the rural areas. Our results indicate that the location of rural bank branches is significantly influenced by infrastructural endowments and agroclimatic environment. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 899-909 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/899-909.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:899-909 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tilat Anwar Author-X-Name-First: Tilat Author-X-Name-Last: Anwar Author-Workplace-Name: Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. Title: Structural Adjustment and Poverty: The Case of Pakistan Abstract: Despite the external shocks in the 1980s, the economy continued to grow at a respectable rate. However, increasing internal and external imbalances caused an economic crisis in 1988 and lead to an implementation of a medium term structural adjustment programme within the framework of the IMF and the World Bank. Neither theory nor existing evidence gives a conclusive verdict about the effects of adjustment policies on poverty. Hence, the paper examines the actual changes in absolute poverty during the period of adjustment. The actual changes in the distribution have been examined from two comparable household income and expenditure surveys (HIES) for 1987-88 and 1990-91, spanning the period of adjustment. Evidence suggests that the stylised facts of structural adjustment policies are consistent with actual changes in the absolute poverty. The first order stochastic dominance test suggests that not only the absolute poverty incidence but also the intensity and severity of poverty increased significantly by all poverty lines and poverty measures over the period of adjustment. Structural adjustment created new poor in urban areas amongst the low income groups (mainly Clerical and Sales workers) whose real wages were eroded over the period. Poverty also increased unambiguously among self-employed (smallholders in the informal sector) and unemployed who seems to have been affected adversely by the overall economic contraction. Though, the government has the priority to achieve the fiscal balance, it should seek to ameliorate the most distressing cost arising in the short run. Excessive reliance on demand management in scale or speed is counter-productive for adjustment. Adjustment strategies need to account for the trade-off between shortterm gains and long-term benefits foregone. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 911-926 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/911-926.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:911-926 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jamshed Y. Uppal Author-X-Name-First: Jamshed Y. Author-X-Name-Last: Uppal Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics and Business, The Catholic University of America, Washington, D. C. Author-Name: I.U. Mangla Author-X-Name-First: I.U. Author-X-Name-Last: Mangla Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Finance and Insurance, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, Michigan. Title: Accessing International Capital: Pakistan’s Experience, Prospects, and Policy Implications Abstract: In the 1990s accessing international capital markets has become a major source of external financing for many developing countries. The paper reviews Pakistan’s experience in tapping the global financial markets. We conduct a cross-sectional econometric analysis of the factors influencing the access to international equity and debt capital. Results indicate that the factors as suggested in the earlier literature do appear to be influential in determining the access to international capital. The study finds that the role of credit rating in attracting debt flows and of the local capital markets in attracting equity flows is prominent. The rate of economic growth is a major determinant of the access to foreign debt and equity funds. It also appears that the country rating which is based on a comprehensive set of variables indicating the financial health of the country subsumes the other proxies of economic stability and debt management. This study underscores the importance of institutional factors. Areas where improvement is possible to facilitate access to the international capital markets are identified as (1) political and legal environment, including improvements in the quality of the system of civil laws and its enforcement (2) private sector development through sustaining economic liberalisation and privatisation programmes (3) improvement in macro-economic management through a prudent internal and external debt management (4) development of capital markets through, improvements in market operations, enforcement of market regulations, strengthening of financial institutions and effective dissemination of market information. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 929-941 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/929-941.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:929-941 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eatzaz Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Eatzaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Capital Inflows and National Debt Abstract: Using a three-gap model, this paper simulates the future time paths of resource deficits in Pakistan. The paper then show that the policy of increasing the rate of return on foreign capital can reduce foreign debt when foreign capital is sufficiently responsive to changes in its rate of return. This, however, happens at the expense of increasing domestic debt. The policy of selling public assets abroad appears fruitless. The main benefit of this policy is a reduction in domestic debt which can better be achieved by selling public assets domestically. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 943-960 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/943-960.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:943-960 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S. Hirashima Author-X-Name-First: S. Author-X-Name-Last: Hirashima Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of International Studies, Meiji-Gakuin University, Yokohama, Japan. Title: Asset Effects in Land Price Formation in Agriculture: The Evidence from South Asia Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the land market behaviour in South Asia, taking the most technologically advanced Punjab (both Pakistan and India) as an example, and to consider the disparity issues in development. Land market in Punjab was given momentum when the private proprietorship of land was established in the middle of the 19th century. Land market behaviour in terms of the rentland price ratio or the profitability of investment in land cannot be explained by the conventional rent theory. Land price has never been the discounted value of rent. We try to explain the market behaviour by incorporating asset effects in addition to the technological effects in agricultural production. Since the land price data are not published after independence both in Pakistan and India, it is difficult to confirm whether or not the observed trend of declining rent-land price ratio can be observed after independence. However, judging from the scattered field survey data, we could presume that the asset effects have been positive and increasing, thereby reducing the R/P ratio much lower than the market interest rate. The study raises questions with respect to the direction of public investment, land tax policy, and the growing disparity between rent receivers and rent payers. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 963-976 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/963-976.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:963-976 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Afzal Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Afzal Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Division (Water), Water and Power Development Authority, Lahore. Title: Managing Water Resources for Environmentally Sustainable Irrigated Agriculture in Pakistan Abstract: Pakistan’s agriculture is almost wholly dependent on irrigation and irrigated land supplies more than 90 percent of agricultural production. Irrigation is central to Pakistan’s economy. Massive investments in irrigation contributed to the development of one of the largest Indus Basin Irrigation System. Despite heavy budgetary inputs in irrigation system, it is facing shortage of resources and suffering from operational problems. The sustainability of irrigated agriculture is threatened due to problems of waterlogging and salinity, inadequate operation and maintenance, insufficient recovery of O&M expenditure, inequitable distribution, environmental degradation, institutional issues etc. The growing scarcity of water sets the future stage for intensive competition over water between agriculture and non-agricultural users. The growing need for food and fibre requirements of increasing population further limits the per capita availability of water. Due to the limited prospects for expanding irrigation facilities, the projected increase in irrigated agriculture will have to come from significant improvement in the performance of existing systems. Policy-makers and planners are of the view that Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture requires new strategies to enhance input efficiency and maintain and improve the quality of the resource base and to get the irrigation system out of crises. There is a global movement for searching a new type of relationship between the managers of irrigated agriculture and farmers. Such options are being considered by government at various levels to put the system on sustainable development path. In addressing the environmentally sustainable water resource management in Pakistan, the paper makes an attempt to provide an over-view of water resource issues and options. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 977-988 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/977-988.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:977-988 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sayyid Tahir Author-X-Name-First: Sayyid Author-X-Name-Last: Tahir Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad. Title: Riba, Share-tenancy and Agrarian Reforms Abstract: Land tenureship may take the form of self-cultivation, contractual workers, leasing and partnership. This paper focuses on the last one known as muzara`ah or share-tenancy. After clarifying what riba stands for, it reviews the misgiving about share-tenancy as a case of riba. It also argues at length in favour of share-tenancy as a legitimate mode of land tenure in Shari`ah. Finally, it also draws attention to some reforms to ameliorate the negative aspects of share-tenancy arrangements currently in vogue. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 989-1000 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/989-1000.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:989-1000 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kishwar Khan Author-X-Name-First: Kishwar Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Monopoly Control Authority, Islamabad. Author-Name: Sarwat Mansoor Author-X-Name-First: Sarwat Author-X-Name-Last: Mansoor Author-Workplace-Name: Monopoly Control Authority, Islamabad. Title: A Strategy for Consumer Protection in Pakistan Abstract: Government is relying increasingly on the market mechanism for economic management. The underlying perfect competition model assures maximum welfare of consumer, but assumptions of the model do not hold in real world. Consumer is central to economic activity but at the same time is vulnerable to exploitation by producers, misleading information, ignorance of his rights and non-availability of redress mechanism. Markets may be competitive but the consumers may suffer on account of imperfect information, search and transport costs needed to make satisfactory choices. This creates the need for government intervention for protecting the consumer welfare and rights. This paper explains why a consumer protection policy is needed in a situation of ‘competitive’ markets and looks into consumer protection strategies followed in some other countries. The area of consumer protection in Pakistan has remained neglected so far and no meaningful effort has been made in this direction. Realising this gap, the paper chalks out a consumer protection strategy for Pakistan; which goes beyond mere formulation of legislation and also includes consistent efforts towards awareness creation, provision of information/advice, setting of quality standards and redress. In the long run the efforts should continue in the from of research, formation/strengthening of consumer pressure groups and regional cooperation. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1003-1017 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/1003-1017.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:1003-1017 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Seema Farhat Author-X-Name-First: Seema Author-X-Name-Last: Farhat Author-Workplace-Name: Monopoly Control Authority, Islamabad. Title: Globalisation, Information Technology, and Economic Development Abstract: The decrease in coordination and transaction costs on account of information technology creates more opportunities for firms to make production “footloose”; it allows firms to base different parts of their business in different countries and connect them by real time information networks. The rapid growth in information services is thus facilitating the integrated international production of goods and services. This paper discusses the linkages between information technology and economic globalisation, and examines the reality of developing countries in relation to the perceived benefits of information technology and globalisation to these countries. Moreover the issues involved in furthering the information technology effort in Pakistan are also discussed in the paper. While the usefulness of additional resources to further the establishment of an information technology base in developing countries cannot be denied, the paper argues that substantial headway can also be made with the existing resources given a more considered approach to the problem. Basic to a higher level of information technology involvement and interaction in the economy is that policy-makers at the government and organisational levels develop an understanding of the impact of technology in their objective of improved economic welfare. The paper therefore discusses the set of policies, short-term and long-term, needed to help draw the country into the integrated international production system reflective of the current trends of economic globalisation. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1019-1033 Volume: 35 Issue: 4 Year: 1996 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1996/Volume4/1019-1033.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:35:y:1996:i:4:p:1019-1033