Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mahmood Ul Hassan Author-X-Name-First: Mahmood Ul Author-X-Name-Last: Hassan Author-Workplace-Name: International Irrigation Management Institute (IIMI), Pakistan. Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad Title: Assessing Water Charges under Changing Institutional Irrigation Management in Pakistan: A Methodological Framework Abstract: The Government of Pakistan has opted for institutional reforms for canal irrigation system of the country with a view to undertaking efficient operation and maintenance of the system and improving cost recovery. In the new reforms, the Farmers’ Organisations will manage distributaries and minors and pay the cost of upstream water in full. The complex hierarchy of the system poses serious challenges for working out the cost of water delivery for various channels. The paper presents a methodological framework for assessing the recoverable O&M costs from the farmers benefiting from an irrigation network. Hakra 4-R Distributary in the Eastern Sadiqia Canal serves as an illustration. The methodology shows how the beneficiary farmers can share the costs of the system. Simple methods are provided for working out water rates on the basis of volume of water received, commanded area, and duration of the irrigation turn. Out of the three methods, the area-based and time-based water rates have comparative advantage over the volumetric water rates owing to the resource endowments of the farmers. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1-17 Volume: 37 Issue: 1 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume1/1-17.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:1-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naushin Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Naushin Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad Title: Reproductive Goals and Family Planning Attitudes in Pakistan: A Couple-level Analysis Abstract: Based on the responses of 1260 matched couples in the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, this study examines how congruent wives’ and husbands’ attitudes towards fertility and family planning are, and to what extent the similarity or difference in attitudes affects their reproductive control behaviour. The results show that about 60 percent of the couples have given similar responses (agreeing either positively or negatively) to several fertility-related questions, whereas the remaining 40 percent differ in their attitudes. Multivariate analyses indicate that a couple’s joint approval of family planning, husband’s desire for no more children, and spousal discussion about family planning stand out as the strongest predictors of contraceptive use. These findings clearly suggest that the role of couple agreement is important in promoting the use of family planning, and that men should be made as equal targets of such programmes in Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 19-34 Volume: 37 Issue: 1 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume1/19-34.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:19-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mubarik Ali Author-X-Name-First: Mubarik Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Asian Vegetable Research and Development Centre, Taiwan. Author-Name: Abedullah Author-X-Name-First: Abedullah Author-Workplace-Name: International Rice Research Institute, Manila. Title: Supply, Demand, and Policy Environment for Pulses in Pakistan Abstract: This paper fills an information gap regarding factors affecting the supply and demand of pulses in Pakistan. The short- and long-term supply elasticities were estimated using the Nerlovian partial adjustment process, while demand elasticities were estimated by applying the Deaton and Muellbauer Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Generally lack of technological innovation in pulses, except in mungbean, has reduced their production and they are pushed to low intensive areas which are marginal for cereal and cash crop production. Pulses did not benefit from the investment in irrigation infrastructure. Increase in wage rates has further affected the mungbean and lentil production. On the demand side, contrary to normal belief, pulses have high own-price demand and income elasticities. Thus decline in pulses consumption is not caused by their being regarded as inferior goods, rather it can be attributed to disproportionate increase in pulses price, as laxity in pulses research left their production behind demand. The high-yielding, short-duration, and pest-resistant pulses varieties with synchronised maturity can revive their production trend as well as improve the dietary pattern, especially of the poor. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 35-52 Volume: 37 Issue: 1 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume1/35-52.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:35-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hari Ram Lohano Author-X-Name-First: Hari Ram Author-X-Name-Last: Lohano Author-Workplace-Name: Sindh Development Studies Centre, Sindh University. Author-Name: Laurence E.D. Smith Author-X-Name-First: Laurence Author-X-Name-Last: E.D. Smith Author-Workplace-Name: Wye College, University of London. Author-Name: Mike Stockbridge Author-X-Name-First: Mike Author-X-Name-Last: Stockbridge Author-Workplace-Name: Independent Consultant based in the United Kingdom. Title: Comparing the Seed Cotton and Wheat Marketing Chains in Sindh Abstract: This paper contrasts the operation of seed cotton and wheat marketing systems in Sindh. Analysis of marketing margins indicates that the private sector cotton marketing chain appears to be working efficiently, given the many adverse aspects of its socioeconomic environment. There is evidence that higher domestic prices resulting from alignment with world markets have been transmitted through the marketing chain to producers, and that production has increased. In contrast to cotton, the government continues to be heavily involved in wheat procurement and storage, with private traders usually acting as intermediaries between the Food Department and the grower. Despite expensive involvement of the same private traders as in cotton, the wheat market is characterised by bureaucratic failure and rent-seeking behaviour, leading to stagnation of incentives and production. For cotton, the primary recommendations are to sustain liberalisation of the market and to support the developing beneficial model of private competition through improvements in communications and transport infrastructure. The practical means to improve the grading of cotton lint and seed cotton should also be developed and promoted to provide incentives for higher quality output. For wheat, the main recommendations are to liberalise farmgate prices, reduce the state’s role in procurement, and privatise government godowns. Research is needed on how this might best be achieved, with attention to the conditions necessary for private financing of storage activities, and to ways of minimising price and supply fluctuations. The impact of higher flour prices on poor consumers also needs to be addressed. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 53-75 Volume: 37 Issue: 1 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume1/53-75.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:53-75 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fazal Husain Author-X-Name-First: Fazal Author-X-Name-Last: Husain Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: A Seasonality in the Pakistani Equity Market: The Ramadhan Effect Abstract: This paper attempts to explore a seasonal pattern, the Ramadhan effect, in the Pakistani equity market. Ramadhan, the holy month of fasting, is expected to affect the behaviour of stock market in Pakistan where the environment in Ramadhan is different from other months as people devote more time to perform religious rituals and the general economic activity slows down. The effects of Ramadhan on mean return and stock returns volatility are examined by including a dummy variable in regressions and GARCH models respectively. The analysis indicates a significant decline in stock returns volatility in this month although the mean return indicates no significant change. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 77-81 Volume: 37 Issue: 1 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume1/77-81.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:1:p:77-81 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G.M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Reintegration of Pakistani Return Migrants from the Middle East in the Domestic Labour Market Abstract: This study aims, first, to assess unemployment levels among both return migrants and non-migrants and, second, to examine the reintegration pattern of returnees in the domestic labour market. The study has used three data sets: the 1980 PIDE/World Bank Survey of Return Migrant Households, the 1986 ILO/ARTEP Survey of Return Migrant Households, and the 1991 Pakistan Integrated Household Survey. The results show that unemployment rates are much higher among return migrants than among non-migrants. Although this difference has narrowed with the passage of time, even among those who returned to Pakistan at least 18 months prior to the surveys, more than 10 percent of workers are unemployed. The multivariate analysis further shows that returnees, irrespective of the period elapsed since their return, are more likely to be unemployed than non-migrants. With respect to the reintegration pattern of return migrants, the study reveals that the variables indicating their human capital such as occupation and premigration and during-migration work experience appear to have greater influence on their re-absorption than the variables related to economic positions such as savings. The possibility is that unemployed returnees can not save enough from their overseas earnings to become self-employed. Provision of credit for self-employment seems to be the right way to accommodate these workers. The study also shows that the majority of workers who are able to find employment on return are satisfied with their post-return jobs and income levels, suggesting their successful reintegration in the domestic labour market. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 99-124 Volume: 37 Issue: 2 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume2/99-124.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:2:p:99-124 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ghulam Mustafa Zahid Author-X-Name-First: Ghulam Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Zahid Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Pakistan Abstract: The main purpose of this paper has been to examine the effects of some of the key macroeconomic variables on Pakistan’s economic growth. Multiple regression framework is used to separate out the effects of key macroeconomic factors on growth over the period 1959-60 to 1996-97. The quantitative evidence shows that primary education to be an important prerequisite for accelerating growth. Similarly, increasing the stock of physical capital would help to contribute to growth. The empirical results also suggest that openness of Pakistan’s economy promotes economic growth. Alternatively, the budget deficit is negatively related to both output growth variables. The external debt is also negatively related to growth, suggesting that relying on domestic resources is the best alternative to finance growth. However, the results presented in this study reinforce the importance of sensible long-run growth-oriented policies to obtain sustainable growth. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 125-148 Volume: 37 Issue: 2 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume2/125-148.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:2:p:125-148 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ejaz Ghani Author-X-Name-First: Ejaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ghani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Wheat Pricing Policies in Pakistan: Some Alternative Options Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact on wheat production, consumption, and trade of changing the input subsidy and output price subsidy policies. A model of the wheat market in Pakistan is developed to examine the likely effects of alternative wheat pricing policies in Pakistan. A recursive econometric simulation model was used to project production, consumption, and trade under the baseline and two other scenarios. The baseline scenario is designed to predict the evolution of production, consumption, and trade if agricultural policies are maintained until the year 2000. In scenario one, the effects of complete subsidy removal are assessed while in scenario two the subsidies are assumed to be phased out gradually. The results of the study indicate that there will be a greater decline in wheat production if the government eliminates the input subsidies at once than if there is a gradual phasing out of these. The results suggest that there will be a little impact on the consumption of wheat due to the increase in consumer price of wheat. However, the lower-income household with the higher number of family members will be affected more with the increase in the price of staple wheat. Imports of wheat are greater if the subsidies are eliminated at once, as compared to phasing them out gradually. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 149-166 Volume: 37 Issue: 2 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume2/149-166.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:2:p:149-166 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joseph G. Nagy Author-X-Name-First: Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: G. Nagy Author-Workplace-Name: Saskatoon, Canada. Author-Name: M.A. Quddus Author-X-Name-First: M.A. Author-X-Name-Last: Quddus Author-Workplace-Name: Social Sciences Division, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad. Title: The Pakistan Agricultural Research System: Present Status and Future Agenda Abstract: Alarming food supply and demand deficits are projected to the year 2020 and beyond for Pakistan, based on its current low investment/low growth agricultural sector. Evidence suggests that agricultural productivity growth and increases in production may not keep pace with past growth rates. Part of the problem is an underfunded and poorly managed agricultural research system that can not hope to contribute significantly to increasing agricultural productivity now or in the future. The World Bank-assisted Agricultural Research II Project (ARP-II) was initiated to partially overcome some of the funding problems and provide institutional development in the areas of organisation, planning, and management of the research system at both the federal and provincial levels. A National Master Agricultural Research Plan (NMARP) was one of the principal goals of the ARP-II as part of improving research planning and management. The objective of this paper is to review the reasons why the Pakistan agricultural research system needs to be revitalised, review the status and problems of the present agricultural research system, and outline a future agenda for Pakistan’s agricultural research system based on the plan developed for the NMARP. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 167-187 Volume: 37 Issue: 2 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume2/167-187.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:2:p:167-187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G.M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Sabiha Ibrahim Author-X-Name-First: Sabiha Author-X-Name-Last: Ibrahim Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Diarrhoea Morbidity Differentials among Children in Pakistan Abstract: The present study used the 1995-96 Pakistan Integrated Household Survey data to determine the socio-economic, demographic, and environmental covariates of both prevalence and duration of diarrhoea among children under five in Pakistan. Seven logit models were estimated to determine factors influencing the probability of occurrence of diarrhoea. Seven Proportional Hazards Models were used to examine factors determining the duration of diarrhoea. Results revealed that around 20 percent of children under five suffered from diarrhoea in the 30 days prior to the survey. Child’s age was negatively associated with diarrhoea morbidity. Children who had measles immunisation were less likely than children without this immunisation to have diarrhoea. The study also revealed that in controlling the occurrence of diarrhoea among children, sanitation facilities seemed to be more important than the supply of drinking-water. With respect to the duration of diarrhoea, the hazard models showed that younger children, particularly under the age of two, were relatively at a greater risk to suffer from longer diarrhoea episode. The use of Nimkol (ORT) showed a significant and positive effect on recovering quickly from the diarrhoea morbidity. The findings of the study suggest that mothers should be given health education so that they are familiar with the simply prepared treatment, Nimkol, and have knowledge about personal hygiene, and specially of preparing supplementary foods for children. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 205-230 Volume: 37 Issue: 3 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume3/205-230.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:3:p:205-230 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Munir Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Munir Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Azkar Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Azkar Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: An Analysis of the Sources of Wheat Output Growth in the Barani Area of the Punjab Abstract: A time-varying efficiency effects approach using district level data of wheat in barani Punjab is used to disintegrate wheat output growth into different sources. The results show that wheat output grew at an annual rate of 2.71 percent under barani conditions, during the period of study. Technological change was the main driving force, sharing about 107 percent of this growth, while the changing inputs contributed negatively by about 10 percent and the efficiency contribution was less than 4 percent. On the other hand, irrigated output increased by about 4.7 percent per annum in the region; of which 65 percent, 1.3 percent, and 34 percent were attributable to technological change, change in efficiency, and increase in inputs. As regards the overall wheat output in the barani region of the Punjab, it grew at an annual rate of 2.97 percent—84 percent of which was shared by the barani lands and the remaining 16 percent was contributed by irrigated lands in the region. One common result which was observed under both barani and irrigated conditions was that the productivity growth (the sum of technological and efficiency change) showed declining trends exclusively due to negative trends in technical efficiency. Low relative profitability as compared to growing vegetables and raising livestock might be the main cause of this trend in the barani area: the same reason could also be a source of decline in efficiency. Rapid technological advancements require that farmers and administrators improve their management skills even to keep the productive efficiency at the same level. This is not possible without education and training along with a more effective flow of information [Lall (1993)]. Under these circumstances, the agricultural extension system has to play a greater role in assisting the farming community in the barani areas so as to adopt and use new technologies more rationally. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 231-249 Volume: 37 Issue: 3 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume3/231-249.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:3:p:231-249 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mueen Nasir Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Mueen Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Determinants of Personal Earnings in Pakistan: Findings from the Labour Force Survey 1993-94 Abstract: The paper explores the role of human and non-human capital factors in determining the earnings of workers in Pakistan. The Labour Force Survey data 1993-94, which provides detailed information about workers, has been used for this analysis. Ordinary least squares estimation technique has been utilised for the analysis. The analysis is carried out separately for male and female workers. It is found that in human capital variables, education plays a dominant role in wage determination. In non-human capital factors, occupation and size of the establishments are found to be relevant variables. Other important variables include regional location and technical training. The sample selection bias has been observed for female workers whereas no problem has been observed for male workers, and the bias has been corrected by using the Heckman procedure, though both corrected and uncorrected results are reported. Important conclusions and policy implications are discussed at the end. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 251-274 Volume: 37 Issue: 3 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume3/251-274.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:3:p:251-274 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abid A. Burki Author-X-Name-First: Abid A. Author-X-Name-Last: Burki Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Haq Nawaz Shah Author-X-Name-First: Haq Nawaz Author-X-Name-Last: Shah Author-Workplace-Name: Punjab Economic Research Institute, Lahore. Title: Stochastic Frontier and Technical Efficiency of Farms in Irrigated Areas of Pakistan's Punjab Abstract: This paper presents new evidence on technical efficiency and its sources by examining the cost behaviour of 387 farms and whole-farm data from five irrigated districts of Punjab. Fitting translog variable cost frontier we find that technical inefficiency raises the cost of average sample farms by 24 percent that could have been saved had the farms been technically efficient. Our results enable us to conclude that farm efficiency is positively related to formal schooling of farm operators, abundance of canal water, and head reaches of mogha, and negatively to farm size, while the age of farm operators has no effect on efficiency. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 275-291 Volume: 37 Issue: 3 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume3/275-291.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:3:p:275-291 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: George E. Battese Author-X-Name-First: George E. Author-X-Name-Last: Battese Author-Workplace-Name: Centre for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis, School of Economic Studies, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia. Title: A Methodological Note on a Stochastic Frontier Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Quality of Irrigation Water on Crop Yields Abstract: A stochastic frontier model is proposed for analysis of crop yields, which considers the effects of differing quality of irrigation water, in addition to different inputs and factors associated with technical inefficiency of production. The parameters of the production frontier involved are assumed to be a function of other variables, which measure the quality of the irrigation water. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 293-298 Volume: 37 Issue: 3 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume3/293-298.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:3:p:293-298 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Albert Berry Author-X-Name-First: Albert Author-X-Name-Last: Berry Author-Workplace-Name: University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada. Title: The Potential Role of the SME Sector in Pakistan in a World of Increasing International Trade Abstract: A major challenge to economic policy in Pakistan at this time is to energise the private SME sector of the economy. This follows in part from the fact that other sectors are unlikely, under present circumstances, to provide the needed growth either of output or of reasonably remunerative employment; in fact, there will be a major employment challenge over the coming years as labour supply continues to expand rapidly and as neither the large-scale private sector nor the public sector are poised to create significant numbers of jobs, and though agriculture and the non-agricultural microenterprise sector can and probably will do so the levels of productivity and hence of remuneration are likely to be unattractively low. By contrast, the SME sector does have substantial untapped potential to contribute to those objectives; both economic logic and the experiences of other developing countries point to that potential, as well as providing evidence on how it may be achieved. A dynamic SME sector is an important complement to a more open economy; in most of the countries which appear to have reaped major benefits from export orientation the SME sector has been importantly involved in that process. Achieving the maximum contribution from SME, however, will require significant improvements in the support system. If achieved it will not only constitute an important source of dynamism in and of itself, but will also complement efficient large enterprise, strengthen the demand for agricultural products, and make it easier for microenterprise to graduate into the SME size range. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 25-49 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/25-49.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:25-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Streeten Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Streeten Author-Workplace-Name: Boston University, USA. Title: Globalisation: Threat or Opportunity? Abstract: Globalisation is transforming trade, finance, employment, migration, technology, communications, the environment, social systems, ways of living, cultures, and patterns of governance. The growth of technology and globalisation mutually reinforce each other. Much of the process of globalisation is historically not unprecedented, but the technology, the setting, the absence of a single dominant centre, and certain features such as the replacement of trade of raw materials for manufactured products by largely intra-sectoral trade, are new. International interdependence is growing, and to some extent and partially, so is international integration. But it is accompanied by disintegration and fragmentation of other parts. Partial international integration (mainly of the elites), without global policies, leads to national social disintegration. Is globalisation a threat to humanity or an opportunity? A tentative balance sheet is drawn up. Markets, to be efficient, have to be embedded in a framework that enables their productive potential to flourish and to be used for socially and ecologically sustainable development. The reduced power of national governments combined with the spread of world-wide free markets and technological innovation without a corresponding authority to regulate them and hold them accountable has contributed to the marginalisation of large regions and groups of people. The state has become to some extent ungovernable, while the global society is ungoverned. Unemployment, poverty, inequality and alienation are increasing, partly (though not solely) as a result of this process. Crimes, drugs, terrorism, violence, civil wars, diseases, and environmental destruction are also becoming globalised. In the struggle of international competition capital, technology and high skills dominate the more readily dispensable factors unskilled labour and the environment. Cost reductions are carried out and labour and nature suffer. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 51-83 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/51-83.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:51-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pervez Hasan Author-X-Name-First: Pervez Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan Author-Workplace-Name: Former Director and Chief Economist of the World Bank. Title: Pakistan at the Threshold of the 21st Century: How to Shape a Better Economic Future? Abstract: Pakistan has been facing a deep-seated economic and financial crisis and seemingly intractable governance issues for the last few years. Factors such as international sanctions and global economic slowdown, which have worsened Pakistan’s economic difficulties, were beyond Pakistan’s control. But by and large, the country’s economic and financial difficulties are the result of economic mismanagement in key areas over long periods. Bad governance, as reflected in widespread corruption and poor delivery of public services, and especially poor law and order have given birth to a crisis of confidence in the state. It is argued here that despite this scenario, a long and arduous process of building institutions, setting the policies right, and enforcing a rule-based governance stressing both merit and accountability can put Pakistan back on the road to shared prosperity. Resolving financial problems, accelerating demographic transition, exploiting tremendous agricultural potential, improving both availability and quality of education, increasing competitiveness and bringing about structural change in exports and industry, and reforming the government are crucial policy actions that can help shape a better future for the country and end the economic drift. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 85-122 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/85-122.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:85-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohsin S. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Mohsin Author-X-Name-Last: S. Khan Author-Workplace-Name: IMF institute, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C. Title: Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Blessing or Curse? Abstract: The surge of private capital flows to developing countries that occurred in the 1990s has been the most significant phenomenon of the decade for these countries. By the middle of the decade many developing countries in Asia and Latin America were awash with private foreign capital. In contrast to earlier periods when the scarcity of foreign capital dominated economic policy-making in these countries, the issue now for governments was how to manage the largescale capital inflows to generate higher rates of investment and growth. While a number of developing countries were able to benefit substantially from the private foreign financing that globalisation made available to them, it also became apparent that capital inflows were not a complete blessing and could even turn out to be a curse. Indeed, in some countries capital inflows led to rapid monetary expansion, inflationary pressures, real exchange rate appreciation, financial sector difficulties, widening current account deficits, and a rapid build-up of foreign debt. In addition, as the experience of Mexico in 1994 and the Asian crisis of 1997-98 demonstrated, financial integration and globalisation can cut both ways. Private capital flows are volatile and eventually there can be a large reversal of capital because of changes in expected asset returns, investor herding behaviour, and contagion effects. Such reversals can lead to recessions and serious problems for financial systems. This paper examines the characteristics, causes and consequences of capital flows to developing countries in the 1990s. It also highlights the appropriate policy responses for governments facing such inflows, specifically to prevent overheating of the economy, and to limit the vulnerability to reversals of capital flows. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 125-151 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/125-151.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:125-151 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Jaffrelot Author-X-Name-First: Christophe Author-X-Name-Last: Jaffrelot Author-Workplace-Name: Research, Centre de'Etudes et de Recherches Intemationales, Paris, France. Title: Interpreting Ethnic Movements in Pakistan Abstract: The paper looks into the causes behind various ethnic movements in Pakistan and finds that these identity movements do not stem from primordial collective bonds. Rather, they originate from a motivation to promote specific interests, political as well as socio-economic. Centralisation of the state is an additional factor contributing to the ethnic tensions in the country as it leads to a strong feeling of vulnerability among the smaller groups. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 153-179 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/153-179.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:153-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Williamson Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Williamson Author-Workplace-Name: South Asia Region, World Bank. Title: Pakistan and the World Economy Abstract: This paper aims to explore Pakistan's geo-economic options in the difficult situation that confronts following the easing of sanctions, which added acute balance of payments pressures to its existing ailments of near-stagnant exports, a lower growth trend than in preceding decades, an unattractive climate for foreign investment, and weak social indicators. The first question explored is whether Pakistan has any opportunity of participating in a regional trade grouping. It is argued that the only conceivable way of achieving this would involve the development of SAARC, which would demand a profound transformation of Indo-Pakistani relations (though one no more profound than that realised in Franco-German relations since the founding of what is now known as the European Union). One benefit of achieving deep integration through SAARC is that this would create the possibility of Pakistan developing a serious engineering industry far more rapidly than will otherwise happen. In the absence of deep integration in SAARC, it is argued that Pakistan's best option would be a policy close to unilateral free trade, so as to place it in a position to take advantage of whatever the next generation of labour-intensive activities demanded by the world economy proves to be. Under either of those scenarios, the reestablishment of a dynamic industrial sector will require the maintenance of a competitive exchange rate, something that, it is argued, is not necessarily guaranteed by floating. The paper also discusses the role of inward direct investment in contributing to the export success of East Asia, and considers whether the expatriate Pakistani community might be capable of playing a role comparable to that played by the overseas Chinese in nurturing the Chinese export expansion of the last two decades. It is suggested that such a hope was set back by the extra-legal attempt to renegotiate power tariffs with the independent power producers in the course of 1998, and that Pakistan needs to become a country of laws rather than discretion if foreign investors, including expatriate Pakistanis, are ever to find the country an attractive export platform. While more inward direct investment would almost certainly be beneficial, the same is not true for inward financial investment, where too large an inflow can easily expose a country to very significant risks, as the East Asian crisis showed. In the long run, Pakistan needs to be prepared to repel excessive capital inflows if they materialise; but its immediate problem is still balance of payments pressure, and this seems to demand targeting a major and sustained improvement in the current account over the next several years. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 181-201 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/181-201.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:181-201 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Author-Name: Amir Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Amir Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Newcastle, Australia. Author-Name: Ghulam Mustafa Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: Ghulam Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Title: Pakistan's Edible Oil Needs and Prospects for Self-sufficiency Abstract: In today's world economy, financial crises have been quite rampant and have been a source of greater misery, deprivation and poverty among a growing number of countries [Wolfensehn (1998)]. Some of the major causes of this state of affairs especially in Pakistan lie in rising debt servicing liabilities, receding donor assistance and growing saving-investment and import-export gaps [UN (1997)]. To the extent that the above situation can be ameliorated considerably by emphasis on domestic production especially in agriculture, this paper looks at possibilities of increasing the production of oil-crops for eliminating edible oil imports. It must be noted that selfreliance in edible oil is not important in its own right but would also be consistent with more judicious use of domestic resources, greater food security, enhanced welfare of consumers and producers and above all saving of scarce foreign exchange resources [Goldman (1975) and Mellor and Johnston (1984)]. In line with the above, the paper has the following outline. Section 2 reviews edible oil situation in the country. The factors underlying the growing edible oil deficit are highlighted in Section 3. In Section 4 discussion is centred on policy alternatives for attainment of self-sufficiency in edible oils through local production. The final Section 5 summarises the conclusions of the paper. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 205-216 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/205-216.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:205-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nisar Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Nisar Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: National Fertiliser Development Centre, Planning and Development Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Author-Name: Tila Muhammad Author-X-Name-First: Tila Author-X-Name-Last: Muhammad Author-Workplace-Name: National Fertiliser Development Centre, Planning and Development Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Fertiliser, Plant Nutrient Management, and Self-reliance in Agriculture Abstract: The importance of agriculture in the economy of Pakistan is well established. Agricultural plays an important role both directly and indirectly in generating economic activity, growth and development. Agriculture has strong backward and forward linkages and is vital to the food security of the country. Fertilisers have played an important role in Pakistan agriculture particularly in meeting the growing demand for food grains, fibre, fuel and fodder. Fertiliser consumption has increased during the last four decades to 2.6 million tonnes by 1997-98. The use level is, however, not only sub optimal but also imbalanced. Better plant nutrient management is, therefore, necessary for achieving self reliance in agriculture. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 217-233 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/217-233.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:217-233 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kalbe Abbas Author-X-Name-First: Kalbe Author-X-Name-Last: Abbas Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Habib Iqbal Javed Author-X-Name-First: Habib Iqbal Author-X-Name-Last: Javed Author-Workplace-Name: National Agricultural Research Centre, (NARC), Islamabad. Author-Name: Sajjad-UR-Rehman Author-X-Name-First: Sajjad-UR- Author-X-Name-Last: Rehman Author-Workplace-Name: National Agricultural Research Centre, (NARC), Islamabad. Title: Maize in the Rainfed Areas of Pakistan: An Analysis for Production Sustainability Abstract: The turning issue in agriculture of this era is sustainability and self reliance. There are several definitions of sustainability described by various scientists. Broadly, it means that the improvement in agriculture should be long lasting in view of changing environmental and socio-economic conditions. The high yielding technology available today is not fully adopted because of high cost and changing price structure of the important inputs. Under the present circumstances, the need arises to tailor the production practices according to the need of the farmers for long-term adoption. Sustainable agricultural systems are those that rely on lower inputs of energy and agricultural chemicals to achieve long-term productivity and environmental compatibility. However, Balanos (1998) concludes that the low input systems are low in productivity. Firebaugh (1990) mentioned the proposals given by J.F. Pars and colleagues that the ultimate target of the farmers in sustainable agriculture is to increase productivity and profitability. He also added that we should get benefit from germplasm which can survive over a long period of time. Maize, the major crop of the rainfed areas during summer season, is consumed as food, fodder and feed and have so many industrial uses. The scientists have been trying to search ways for enhanced production of maize under rainfed conditions. Reeves (1997) endorsed the findings of Pinstup-Anderson and Pandya-Lorch that the application of the results of agricultural research in the world is meant for enhanced food production, higher yields with reduced risks, lower production costs and ultimately for lower food prices which have benefited both rural and urban poor people. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 235-243 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/235-243.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:235-243 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rashid Faruqee Author-X-Name-First: Rashid Author-X-Name-Last: Faruqee Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank Resident Mission, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Title: Pakistan's Agriculture in the 21st Century Abstract: In Pakistan, agriculture, which accounts for more than 20 percent of GDP and provides more than 50 percent of jobs, has a special role to play in growth, poverty reduction, and environmental protection. Agricultural growth in the past thirty years has been impressive, at more than 3 percent a year. Sources of growth, however, have changed over the years—from the seed, fertiliser, and irrigation package of the 1960s, to intensification of water and fertiliser use in the 1970s, to improvements in crop management and incentives in the 1980s. Those sources of growth have all but run their course, and agriculture growth in the next century will depend on increasing productivity. At present there are clear signs of stagnation in productivity growth. In fact, total factor productivity, a good measure of overall productivity, may even have declined since the mid-1970s due to resource degradation, failure to adapt technical change, and poor incentives, among others causes. Future growth through productivity increase, however, will require major changes in systems, policies, and institutions for agriculture. These changes are crucial because agriculture in the next century will continue to be key in achieving growth with poverty alleviation and environmental protection. What policies and programmes should the government adopt to sustain and improve agricultural growth in the 21st Century? Before specific strategies are adopted, the appropriate role of the government should be clearly defined as limited to encouraging the development of a smoothly functioning market through institutional and regulatory reforms that facilitate private sector activities and market efficiency. In cases in which market failure is not an issue and intervention has led to market inefficiency the best strategy is to reduce the government's role through policy reforms and the strengthening of the process of market liberalisation. Thus, intervention failures should not result in situation worse than without intervention. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 245-256 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/245-256.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:245-256 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Waqar A. Jehangir Author-X-Name-First: Waqar A. Author-X-Name-Last: Jehangir Author-Workplace-Name: IIMI Pakistan. Author-Name: Nazim Ali Author-X-Name-First: Nazim Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: IIMI Pakistan. Author-Name: Zakir Hussain Rana Author-X-Name-First: Zakir Hussain Author-X-Name-Last: Rana Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Islamabad. Author-Name: Zulfiqar A. Gill Author-X-Name-First: Zulfiqar A. Author-X-Name-Last: Gill Author-Workplace-Name: University of Agriculture Faisalabad. Title: Estimating the Production Potential of Major Crops in Pakistan’s Irrigated Agriculture during the 21st Century Abstract: Land and irrigation are the basic resources in agriculture. The role and importance of these resources and their contribution towards productivity, in the context of the country’s increasing population, can hardly be exaggerated. Pakistani agriculture is set in a very distinctive situation of an increasing population on the one hand and diminishing resources on the other. The population of Pakistan was reported to be 131.63 million in 1996 and is projected to be 207 million in 2013 [Pakistan (1996) and WSIP (1990)]. The agriculture sector has to face the difficult task of doubling the existing food production by the turn of this century. The situation demands horizontal and vertical growth in the productivity, either by bringing more land under cultivation, or by increasing the cropping intensity of the existing land resources. This can also be accomplished by bringing more land under cultivation from the cultivable uncultivated area (a large proportion of which exists on medium and large farms under waterlogged or saline conditions). In this context, it becomes important to identify the nature of the relationship that exists between farm size and unculturable wastelands and the kinds of changes the green revolution/SCARPs projects introduced to this relationship. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 257-277 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/257-277.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:257-277 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Saeed Shafqat Author-X-Name-First: Saeed Author-X-Name-Last: Shafqat Author-Workplace-Name: Civil Services Academy, Lahore. Title: Democracy in Pakistan: Value Change and Challenges of Institution Building Abstract: Democracy as a system of governance and interest representation demands respect for dissent and opposition. It recognises the principle of majority rule and guarantees protection of minorities. Democracy also builds faith in electoral contestation to gain public office and gives legitimacy to political parties as primary instruments for acquisition and transfer of power from one set of individuals to another. Unfortunately, despite the significance of the above elements, no serious studies have been undertaken on Pakistan’s experimentation with democracy. Given a history of weak party system and prolonged military rule, most of the studies focus on the military, political parties, constitutional history, or in a descriptive way, attribute the failure of democracy to the inadequacies of the politicians [Ahmed (1987); Rizvi (1987); Callard (1957) and Afzal (1976)]. It is only recently that some theoretically meaningful and rigorous empirical writings have appeared on elections, procedures and practices of electoral contestation and on problems of transition from authoritarian regimes towards democracy [Waseem (1989); Wilder (1995); Talyor (1992); Rais (1997) and Shafqat (1997)]. It merits attention and recognition that among the Muslim states and developing world, Pakistan is one of those few states, where people have shown vigour and some vitality to adopt a democratic parliamentary system and through popular mass movements demonstrated disapproval of military dictatorships. An enduring feature of Pakistani culture, history and politics has been an aspiration for democracy [Hugh and Rose (1997)]. The passion for democracy continues to resurge, despite ethnic, social class, religious cleavages, strong authoritarian tendencies and prolonged military rule. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 281-298 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/281-298.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:281-298 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nadeem Ul Haque Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem Ul Author-X-Name-Last: Haque Author-Workplace-Name: International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C., USA. Title: Issues in the Designing of Public Sector Reform Abstract: “Civil service reform,” which has become the nickname for public sector management reform in the parlance of development economics, has only recently and grudgingly been accepted by those who advise on policy in the poor countries. Even then, the approach is somewhat paternalistic in that it emphasises externally-designed rules and processes for management, organisation, audit and accountability. It recognises the role of people in terms of noting that incentives and employment policies matter but only in terms of right-sizing the government and second to the need to spread budgetary resources over the politically chosen level of employment. What it does not accept is that and the drive to manage the public sector better has to be led and implemented by the domestic talent and in that they must have both the incentive and the honour of doing just that. This paper argues that the main reason that the public sector management has suffered in many of the poor countries is that incentives have been allowed to erode rapidly as public sector employment was viewed politically as a means of providing welfare. This lead to the outflow of many of the better quality people form the civil service and through adverse selection of the decline of work and ethical standards. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 299-327 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/299-327.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:299-327 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pervez Tahir Author-X-Name-First: Pervez Author-X-Name-Last: Tahir Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Commission, Islamabad. Title: The Debt of the Nation Abstract: The debt of the nation comprises two parts, the external debt and the internal debt. After rapidly accumulating arrears of external debt in the post-sanctions period, Pakistan has had to seek re-scheduling of her external debt as part of a financing and reform package negotiated with the IMF. While re-scheduling has not been sought for the first time, the rising burden of this debt has generated a serious debate for the first time. In the heat of this debate, the heavier burden of the costlier internal debt has been nearly ignored. Although this paper takes account of the totality of the debt towards the end, its main focus is on the problem of external debt for reasons not only of its immediacy but the prospects of forced self-reliance raised by the financial and economic fall-out of the nuclear explosions of May 1998. Section II looks for the data sources and discovers that there are as many sizes of the debt as there are sources. In its latest report, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) characterises the economy as “highly indebted” in terms of its external debt, while the latest Economic Survey (ES) does not consider the external debt as large as it appears. Section III analyses these claims in terms of the internationally recognised debt burden indicators. In Section IV, attention is devoted to debt sustainability criteria. Section V of the paper examines the question as to how debt, which also shows access to capital required for economic growth, was allowed to become a burden over time. The last Section presents main conclusions and suggests an agenda for action. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 331-353 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/331-353.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:331-353 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eatzaz Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Eatzaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, and Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ayaz Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Ayaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, and Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: A Simulation Analysis of the Debt Problem in Pakistan Abstract: The current debt situation in Pakistan and the resulting financial crisis require serious attempts to find a sustainable indigenous solution. As such it is essential to search ways and means to reduce dependence on external borrowing over medium to long run.1 External debt is usually created to sustain a growth rate of the economy, which is otherwise not feasible with the given state of domestic resources, technology, consumption propensity and economic management practices. However, the success of economic growth financed by external borrowing depends on two factors, namely the domestic saving rate and productivity. A country with lower saving rate needs to borrow more to finance a given rate of economic growth. In Pakistan the flow of external loans is likely to have adversely affected the compulsion for savings. For example, no serious attempts have been made to improve tax collection or to control non-development government expenditure unless forced by the donor agencies. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 355-376 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/355-376.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:355-376 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rizwana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rizwana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Impact of Structural Adjustment on Income Distribution in Pakistan A SAM-based Analysis Abstract: Domestic poverty and income distribution are closely related to the state of the economy, which is linked with internal and external economic policies. Since 1988, under the rubric of structural adjustment programme (SAP), Pakistan has made use of fiscal, monetary and trade policies to correct her macro economic imbalances. It is hard to substantiate with proof that these programmes protect the poor. A number of studies have found that income distribution has been getting worse during the adjustment period in Pakistan.1 For example, Kemal (1994); Jaffery and Khattak (1995) and Anwar (1996) found that SAP accompanied with rising income inequality and poverty in Pakistan. But these studies are restricted as they did not employ an adequate methodology to assess the impact of structural adjustment reforms on income distribution.2 This paper, however, uses a simple static fixed-price SAM-based framework to analyse distributional outcome of incomes for rural and urban households. This methodology is useful because social accounting matrix (SAM) represents the whole economy and it does not need a large data set. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 377-397 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/377-397.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:377-397 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S.M. Naseem Author-X-Name-First: S.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Naseem Author-Workplace-Name: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand. Title: Globalisation, Technology, and Asian Economic Growth Abstract: Although globalisation is by no means a recent phenomenon,1 its new wave has raised a number of questions—both about its supposed benefits and its alleged adverse consequences. Rather than exploring the wider ramifications of globalisation, this paper will confine its purview to the question of technology development and dissemination in the context of globalisation as it has affected the development of Asian economies in the last few decades. In particular, the paper will focus on the somewhat dazzling performance of the East Asian economies in the last three decades and their equally sharp and unforeseen downturn in the past two years, which has raised serious doubts first about the replicability and later about the robustness of the East Asian development experience. Although the palpable cause of the current East Asian crisis has generally been situated in the increasing complexity and fragility of the global financial system, many prescient international economists had attributed it to the weakness of the technological underpinnings of East Asian growth [Krugman (1994)]. The East Asian crisis has also raised a lively controversy concerning the impact and desirability of selective micro-economic interventions by national governments, which have often been oversimplified under the rubric of ‘crony capitalism’. While the debate on which causes contributed most to the sudden down-turn in the growth of the East Asian economies remains inconclusive, there seems considerable validity in the conjecture that their future growth prospects will depend on their ability not only to master current technologies, but also to significantly further their technological prowess through R and D and scientific achievement. Although the immediate trigger of the present crisis in East Asia may have been the turmoil in their financial markets, the underlying problems in the real economy, which have so far received insufficient attention, stem largely from their incommensurate technological development. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 401-429 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/401-429.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:401-429 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nadeem Ul Haque Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem Ul Author-X-Name-Last: Haque Author-Workplace-Name: International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C. Author-Name: Mahmood Hasan Khan Author-X-Name-First: Mahmood Hasan Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada. Title: The Economics Profession in Pakistan: A Historical Analysis Abstract: Economics is a policy science: its claim is to describe policies that can improve peoples' lives. Its usefulness for policymaking, therefore, depends on how well economists understand and interpret economic behaviour. In other words, successful economic policy entails a good understanding of the dynamics of economic change. In turn, a model of economic change requires analysis of institutions and organisations in the society. Institutions are the informal conventions (customs) and formal rules by which the members of a society organise the production and distribution of goods and services. Organisations are the players in the economy, including the state (executive, legislature and judiciary), private businesses (profit-seeking individuals and corporate entities), and private non-profit associations (NGOs, professional groups and bodies). Both institutions and organisations change with the evolution of each society and economy. Much as economists disagree on the underlying assumptions and interpretation of "facts" about economic change, they have a broad agreement that the discipline of economics must be embedded in the study of interactions between institutions and organisations. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 431-452 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/431-452.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:431-452 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S.M. Naseem Author-X-Name-First: S.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Naseem Author-Workplace-Name: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Author-Name: S.K. Qureshi Author-X-Name-First: S.K. Author-X-Name-Last: Qureshi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rehana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Conditions of Teaching and Research in Economics: Some Preliminary Findings Abstract: This paper reports on the preliminary findings of a study initiated two years ago, at the initiative of the P.I.D.E. to review the problems of teaching and research in economics and related subjects (ERS) I during the last two decades. The need for such a study has been felt for some time not only because of the common perception of declining standards in higher education generally and, economics, in particular, but also from the perceived competition economics has faced from other disciplines, especially business studies and computer science as a passport to the job market. After having enjoyed a relatively robust period of growth in the 1960s largely through the assistance of foreign donors such as the Ford Foundation, ERS in Pakistan have suffered in their development not only from the comparative paucity of resources allocated to them, but also as a result of an adverse change in the perceptions about the primacy of their usefulness for policy purposes. The demand for economics has also suffered some decline as a result of the diminished importance of the public sector and of planned development during the last two decades. While special branches of economics, such as finance, project evaluation, transport and energy economics have shown increased demand, mainly in the private sector or donor-related institutions, the demand for general economic analysts is not as strong as in the past and does not provide many gainful opportunities for professional advancement. Due to the continued disadvantage in terms of salaries and other rewards, the academic profession, remains unattractive. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 453-478 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/453-478.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:453-478 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Akhtar Hassan Khan Author-X-Name-First: Akhtar Hassan Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: formerly Secretary, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: 1998 Census: The Results and Implications Abstract: The 1998 Census was the fifth nation-wide census to be held in Pakistan. The earlier censuses were held in 1951, 1961, 1972, and 1981. It was the British colonial administrators who started the tradition of holding nation-wide decennial censuses in the year beginning with digit 1. Regular censuses were held in British India from 1881 to 1941. Pakistan continued with this tradition and conducted its national censuses in 1951 and 1961. The 1971 census was postponed due to civil war leading to the separation of East Pakistan. But it was promptly held in the following year in 1972. The 1981 census was held on time in March 1981, preceded by the Housing Census in December 1980. The present author was the Census Commissioner at that time. The next census was due in 1991. Adequate preparations were made. It is a standard operation in every census to conduct house listing before the actual detailed inquiry. Enumerators visit all the houses within their block, put a census number on the house, list the house number corresponding with the census number, and ask a broad question on the total number of persons staying in the house and record this number in their registers. These numbers showed absurd exaggeration, with 10 to 12 percent annual growth in many districts. The operation was called off and it was decided to proceed afresh. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 481-493 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/481-493.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:481-493 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G.M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Sabiha Ibrahim Author-X-Name-First: Sabiha Author-X-Name-Last: Ibrahim Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Process of Urbanisation in Pakistan, 1951–81 Abstract: The current level of urbanisation in Pakistan, approximately 33 percent in 1998, is not high by global standards. But it is commonly linked with unemployment, underemployment, shortage of housing, transport and other infrastructure like water supply and sewerage. Compared to other areas of population dynamics, such as fertility and mortality, studies in the field of urbanisation and internal migration in Pakistan are rather limited. During the last three decades hardly half a dozen studies could be added in the field of urbanisation. These studies are primarily based on data generated by the different censuses. After the 1979 Population Labour Force and Migration (PLM) Survey, no nationally representative survey addressing the issue of urbanisation and internal migration could be carried out. Even regional studies could not be conducted during the last two decades. The present study is designed to utilise the 1998 census data to investigate urban population growth, pace (or tempo) of urbanisation and components of urban growth for the period of 1981–98. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 507-522 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/507-522.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:507-522 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syed Mubashir Ali Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mubashir Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: G. Mustafa Zahid Author-X-Name-First: G. Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Zahid Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Population Planning in Pakistan: How to Meet the Challenge? Abstract: The recent decline in the total fertility rate (11-R) borne out by recent surveys and supported by the results of the 1998 population census of Pakistan (see Table 1) indicates that onset of fertility transition has been made in Pakistan. However, still these rates (5.3 children) excepting Nepal (5.4 children) are the highest in this region. A high proportion of young population (43 percent under 15 years) resulting in population momentum has made the situation grimmer as the task of achieving zero population growth seems to be many decades away even after attaining replacement level fertility. As per United Nations projections, Pakistan in 2050, will leave behind United States, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia and will become the third most populous country of the world with a population of 380 million. A very high rate of population growth in the recent past annihilated most of the developmental achievements and the country remained poor in terms of socio-economic indicators. For example, the average annual per capita income is $460, 24 percent females and 50 percent males are literate, about 60 percent population has an access to safe water whereas, satisfactory sanitation is available to only 30 percent of population [Population Reference Bureau (1997)]. This situation warrants immediate need to accelerate the pace of fertility decline in Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 523-540 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/523-540.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:523-540 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeba A. Sathar Author-X-Name-First: Zeba A. Author-X-Name-Last: Sathar Author-Workplace-Name: Population Council, Islamabad. Author-Name: M. Framurz Kiani Author-X-Name-First: M. Framurz Author-X-Name-Last: Kiani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Some Consequences of Rising Age at Marriage in Pakistan Abstract: Nuptiality changes have been at the core of demographic transitions in Europe and in several Asian societies [Caldwell (1993)]. Delayed marriages have been seen as precursors of fertility change in most societies. They underlie changes in family formation patterns and living arrangements, which ultimately are the bases of demographic transition. The concomitants of profound changes in marriage behaviour are worth studying because of their impact on demographic outcomes such as the population growth rate and fertility. Moreover, they are also strongly connected to the role and status of women, family living arrangements and power structures. The most prominent outcome of the rise in proportions single is that most young men and particularly young women begin experiencing profound changes in their lives. They essentially have several years of their lives "freed" from the responsibilities and changes associated with marriage, and in the case of girls from reproduction. The delay in marriage for females in particular has direct impact on delaying the age of sexual initiation and the age at first birth (since almost all childbearing occurs within marriage). But most importantly, it has direct influences on raising the potential for a larger amount of time between childhood and "adult" responsibilities allowing young people to develop their capabilities in terms of education and work. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 541-556 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/541-556.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:541-556 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fakhari A. Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Fakhari A. Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Williams School of Business and Economics, Bishop's University, Lennoxville, Que., Canada. Title: Population Growth and Development Prospects for Pakistan Abstract: Since its founding Pakistan has exhibited a continuously high rate of population growth. When measured by population size it has moved from the thirteenth largest country in 1950 to the seventh largest country in 1996 (Table 1). Today Pakikan exhibits the highest rate of growth among the world's largest countries, and according to some projections will become the third most populated country in the world by the year 2050 [United Nations (1998)]. Given the country's present resources, this magnitude of population growth has serious implications for the social and economic well-being of the people of Pakistan. A staggering statistic shows that the area now constituting Pakistan which had only 16.6 million people at the turn of the century, will surpass the 150 million mark by the new millennium (less than a year away). Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 557-574 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/557-574.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:557-574 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Talat Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Talat Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Social Science Research Centre, Berlin (WZB). Title: Survival of Newly Founded Businesses: The Post-Entry Performance Abstract: A number of studies have been undertaken on industry dynamics or about the process by which new firms either survive and grow, or else exit from the industry. A new literature has emerged in the last few years, which focuses on the question, what happens to new firms subsequent to their entry?, both in terms of their likelihood of survival and their growth patterns. Most of the studies use a theory of organisational ecology by Hannan and Freeman (1989), which emphasises organisational characteristics and environmental conditions; particularly the number of employees and invested capital. In addition, the theory offers a comprehensive set of factors that influence the hazard rate of newly founded business organisations. In particular, this theory deals with the evolutionary process within or between populations of organisations observed over long periods of time [see also Singh and Lumsden (1990)]. Originally, Stinchcombe (1965) directed the attention of organisational theorists, based on a hypothesis of a "liability of newness", to the age-dependent decline in organisational death rates. A number of studies [Freeman, Carroll, and Hannan (1983)] found that the organisational death risk declines monotonically with age. Later, Brilderl and Schiissler (1990) also empirically tested the Stinchcombe's "liability of newness" hypothesis and showed that it is not a good representation of the mortality (hazard) of business organisations. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 577-594 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/577-594.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:577-594 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naheed Zia Khan Author-X-Name-First: Naheed Zia Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Islamia University, Bahawalpur. Title: Textiles Sector of Pakistan: The Challenge Beyond 2004 Abstract: The world is presently looking forward to embrace the greatest moment of modern history of humankind, turn of the millennium. For Pakistan, however, the millennium celebrations are going to be accompanied by over half a century of missed opportunities and a serious challenge ahead. The focus of this study is Pakistan’s status as a ‘single commodity’ country and the life after 2004 in a post- Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) era. This work intends to use the hindsight to argue that MFA, a cat’s cradle of bilateral textile import quotas, was a blessing in disguise for the value added textiles sector of Pakistan. And the difficulties beyond 2004, when all the quotas have gone, should not be underestimated in a bipolar (NAFTA and the EU) and deregulated world economy . The analysis is carried out in four parts. Part I highlights the economic significance of Pakistan’s textiles industry by briefly analysing its contribution to different sectors of her economy. Part II presents the past, present and future scenario of international trade in Textiles and Clothing (T&C). The present situation of Pakistan’s textiles industry along with its foreign exchange generating performance in the past is assessed in Part III. Finally, Part IV analyses the prospects and challenges faced by the T&C sector of Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 595-619 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/595-619.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:595-619 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Salman Aslam Author-X-Name-First: Salman Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam Author-Workplace-Name: Arshad Zaman Associates (Pvt.) Ltd., Karachi. Title: The Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Annual Estimates (1960-1998) and the Impact of Dollarisation of the Economy Abstract: The underground economy (UE) and tax evasion have been a focus of research in Pakistan for many years now. The growing interest in these areas is because of persistent budget deficits resulting from inadequate tax revenues. It is not the presence but the size of the underground economy and the extent of tax evasion that is a major cause of concern. The growth rate of the underground economy is crucial to policy making. Lack of information in this regard is often held responsible for distortions in major macroeconomic indicators. In effect, the socio-economic policies based on these indicators are made ineffectual. Thus up-to-date estimates of the size and growth of the underground economy are very important. Social and economic policies directly affect the size and growth of the underground economy. Major policy changes like structural reforms in the financial and banking sectors make a significant impact on both .economies. In this respect, it is crucial to gauge the impact of structural changes like dollarisation of the economy on underground activities. The term underground economy encompasses a vast variety of activities that are not deemed legal by law and one cannot be sure of the exact meaning of the phrase. There are several synonyms of the term underground; for example Secondary, Hidden, Irregular, Parallel, Unofficial, Black etc. However, there are four different categories under which the underground economy can be classified. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 621-631 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/621-631.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:621-631 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S.M. Naeem Author-X-Name-First: S.M. Author-X-Name-Last: Naeem Author-Workplace-Name: Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand. Title: Globalisation, Technology, and Asian Economic Growth Abstract: Although globalisation is by no means a recent phenomenon, 1 its new wave has raised a number of questions—both about its supposed benefits and its alleged adverse consequences. Rather than exploring the wider ramifications of globalisation, this paper will confine its purview to the question of technology development and dissemination in the context of globalisation as it has affected the development of Asian economies in the last few decades. In particular, the paper will focus on the somewhat dazzling performance of the East Asian economies in the last three decades and their equally sharp and unforeseen downturn in the past two years, which has raised serious doubts first about the replicability and later about the robustness of the East Asian development experience. Although the palpable cause of the current East Asian crisis has generally been situated in the increasing complexity and fragility of the global financial system, many prescient international economists had attributed it to the weakness of the technological underpinnings of East Asian growth [Krugman (1994)]. The East Asian crisis has also raised a lively controversy concerning the impact and desirability of selective micro-economic interventions by national governments, which have often been oversimplified under the rubric of `crony capitalism'. While the debate on which causes contributed most to the sudden down-turn in the growth of the East Asian economies remains inconclusive, there seems considerable validity in the conjecture that their future growth prospects will depend on their ability not only to master current technologies, but also to significantly further their technological prowess through R and D and scientific achievement. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 635-659 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/635-659.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:635-659 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ashfaque H. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Ashfaque H. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: The Experience of Trade Liberalisation in Pakistan Abstract: Trade policies in developing countries have been at the centre-stage of analysis for the past several decades. The desire for rapid economic growth in developing countries raised many question about the relationship between trade and growth [Krueger (1997a)]. It is, by now, well-established that there exists a strong positive relationship between export growth and overall economic growth in general and manufactured export growth and overall economic growth in particular.' Those countries that have been most successful in expanding their manufactured exports have not only achieved higher economic growth but also succeeded in alleviating poverty.2 This has indeed been the case in East Asia [ADB (1997)]. The core question therefore is: which trade strategies have enabled countries to expand exports in general and manufactured exports in particular? Pakistan's exports have fluctuated widely during the past 50 years. Exports received limited or no attention during the 1950s and as such registered an average decline of 5.7 percent per annum. Exports recovered in the 1960s and grew at an average rate of 10.7 percent per annum. The 1970s witnessed an acceleration in export growth when it grew at an average rate of 22.3 percent. The 1980s and the first eight years of the 1990s exhibited a marked slow down in export growth as compared with the 1970s. In fact, exports grew by 8.5 percent per annum in the 1980s and 7.6 percent per annum in the first eight years of the 1990s. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 661-685 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/661-685.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:661-685 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: WTO and Pakistan: Opportunities and Policy Challenges Abstract: From its inception the GATT had guided international trade most successfully until the early 1970s. However, afterwards the developed countries (DCs) increasingly recurred to new forms of trade restrictions not covered by the GATT rules. Ironically, these “grey measures” were mostly against the less developed countries (LDCs). These measures constrained international trade exactly at the time when the LDCs started penetrating developed markets. One of the main objectives of the Uruguay Round (UR) accord was to restrict the surge of protectionism. The accord was the most ambitious and detailed trade accord of all the GATT rounds. It established the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Before the UR accord the discrimination in textiles, clothing and agriculture was severe because tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) were employed in such a way that the overall effect of protection accumulated. The Round had agreed upon the harmonisation and reduction of tariffs, and elimination of NTBs (in stages) and thus it is expected that the effective protection will diminish in the DCs. The new accord has ensured multilateral rules for these sectors. All members expected that protection would be eventually lower with full implementation of the accord. In order to protect the interest of different groups the WTO has now lay down nondiscriminatory trading rules for services and trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights (TRIPs), thus covering all major fields of international trade policy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 687-701 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/687-701.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:687-701 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naushin Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Naushin Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Durr-E-Nayab Author-X-Name-First: Durr-E- Author-X-Name-Last: Nayab Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Gender Dimensions of Demographic Change in Pakistan Abstract: The achieving of equality and equity between men and women in different spheres of life is essential for the attainment of sustainable development goals. In this context, the need for enhancement of women’s participation in national development programmes and their full integration into the development process has been widely recognised in various global and regional forums. More recently, the Programme of Action adopted by the International Conference on Population and Development at Cairo in 1994 reaffirmed and elaborated the role of women in national development, and endorsed a new strategy that emphasises “gender equality, equity and empowerment of women”. In this context, the Programme of Action recommends that countries should act to empower women and should take steps to eliminate inequalities between men and women by providing them with more choices through expanded access to education and health services, skill development and employment, and eliminating all practices that discriminate against women [United Nations (1995)]. Pursuant to these principles, it is of interest to study the gender related aspects of population and development with a particular focus on the current situation and role of women in the family. While it is true that men are viewed as head of the family in almost all social structures who participate more in the formal economic and social affairs and decision making in the community, it is equally true that women tend to play a major role in household affairs, in forming production and consumption patterns and in generating income for the family. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 705-725 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/705-725.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:705-725 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdul Hakim Author-X-Name-First: Abdul Author-X-Name-Last: Hakim Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad. Author-Name: Azra Aziz Author-X-Name-First: Azra Author-X-Name-Last: Aziz Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad. Title: Socio-cultural, Religious, and Political Aspects of the Status of Women in Pakistan Abstract: This paper gives an overview of socio-cultural, religious and political background of Pakistani society and examines the current status of women utilising data from Pakistan Fertility and Family planning Survey 1996-97. The low status of women is one of the many factors in Pakistani society, which interfere with the achievement of development goals. The success of family planning intervention also mainly depends upon the cooperation and involvement of women. The traditional social structures and norms that limit women's roles may limit their ability to contribute in efforts to control population growth. Some indicators, such as education of women, employment of women, women's participation in domestic and child related decisions, women's mobility, communication about family planning, religion and family planning, have been examined from Pakistan Fertility and Family Planning Survey (1996-97) [For detail of PFFPS, see Hakim et al. (1998)]. Data reveal that there is a little improvement in the social indicators of status of women in Pakistan, however, it is still very low which inhibit their participation in education and in the labour force as well as encouraging their high fertility. Maintenance of traditional Islamic and cultural restrictions on women may also conflict with the achievement of development goals in family planning. Hence an examination is required of Islamic teachings and customary laws affecting the status of women in Pakistani society and the family which ultimately restrict women from adopting family planning measures. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 727-746 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/727-746.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:727-746 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ashfaque H. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Ashfaque H. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry of Finance, Islamabad. Author-Name: Zafar Mueen Nasir Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Mueen Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Stylised Facts of Household Savings: Findings from the HIES 1993-94 Abstract: Saving, the fraction of national income that is not spent on current consumption, has long been widely regarded as a key factor in economic growth.' The saving rate along with the incremental capital-output ratio determine the growth rate of the economy in the Harrod-Domar Model framework. The critical role of saving in capital accumulation and economic development is also recognised in the "two-gap" and classical growth models. For capital accumulation to result in sustained growth, it must be supported by adequate domestic/national savings. This has been clearly demonstrated by the extra-ordinary performance of the East Asian economies. While there have been brief periods of significant inflow of external financial resources to some developing countries in the past, foreign savings cannot be expected to provide a sustainable basis for financing domestic investment. Raising national saving rate is particularly essential to developing countries with a heavy debt service burden and limited capacity to obtain loans in foreign capital markets. The 1995 Mexican crisis showed, among other things, that low domestic savings can raise the probability of sudden capital outflows, and sharpen their negative consequences. In a financially integrated world, high national/domestic savings contribute to macro economic stability which is itself a powerful growth factor. Indeed, any macro economic adjustment programmes oriented to the resumption of long-run growth invariably emphasise the need to expand domestic savings. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 749-763 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/749-763.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:749-763 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rashida Haq Author-X-Name-First: Rashida Author-X-Name-Last: Haq Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Trends in Inequality and Welfare in Consumption Expenditure: The Case of Pakistan Abstract: Economic growth is important, but at the same time it loses its importance if nothing trickles down to the poor. One of the frequent heard arguments against growth strategies is that it benefits only the comparatively well off segment of the society. This means that the concomitant of economic growth is more skewed income distribution. Growth and equity should be solved subsequently or in some cases simultaneously, otherwise these countries are exposed to disaster [Hirschman (1973)]. The surge for income distribution studies both in developed and developing countries has, however, been caused by different reasons. In a developed nation, a high economic growth, in terms of GNP per capita and the introduction of the concept of a welfare state necessitated a widespread debate on income inequality and relative poverty issues. In the developing countries, failure to achieve sustainable high growth rates and disappointment from the pursuit of growth-led macro-economic policies in the past decade has surfaced a need to conduct income distribution studies and policies. Much of the recent literature on inequality and economic well-being in Pakistan has focused on the apparent increased inequality that occurred during the last two decades. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 765-779 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/765-779.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:765-779 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mueen Nasir Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Mueen Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Riaz Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Riaz Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Personal Earnings Inequality in Pakistan: Findings from the HIES 1993-94 Abstract: The earnings of workers play important role in the well-beings of households’ as they account for the largest proportion of total household income. If earnings of workers are distributed unevenly, they contribute significantly to the inequality in the household earnings. It may not be a cause of serious concern if income inequality grows and income of the workers also grows throughout the population and the position of the bottom segment improves. It is however serious when gap between rich and poor increases by worsening the position of poor. To reduce the household income inequality it is therefore important to focus on the distribution of personal earnings and frame a policy. There are many cause of inequality in personal earnings. As workers income rises at varying rates, it may reflect the decision of household of their investment in human capital and decisions to acquire skills. The factors like education, occupation, gender, regional location, sector of employment, and non-market forces such as discrimination may also play a significant role in the distribution of earnings. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 781-792 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/781-792.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:781-792 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Iqbal Khan Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Iqbal Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Water and Power Development Authority, Lahore. Title: Power Sector Development in Pakistan and Economic Policy Issues Abstract: A study of power sector development in Pakistan is like other essential infrastructure and basic social overhead facilities. The provision of electricity is a pre condition for the advancement of other services to accelerate economic development. Of the total consumption, households is 41 percent, agriculture 15 percent; industry 27 percent; others 12 percent includes railway traction. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 795-809 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/795-809.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:795-809 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anjum Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Anjum Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Hub Power Company, Pakistan. Title: IPPs: The Real Issues Abstract: Since May 1998, an important issue facing Pakistan policy-makers has been whether independent power producers (IPPs) produce expensive electricity. It is contended that IPPs’ expensive power has rendered the state utility, Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), bankrupt. It is also alleged that IPPs indulged in corruption and colluded with WAPDA officials to get their signatures on contracts which allowed procurement of expensive power by WAPDA and which it can ill afford now. This paper shifts through the rhetoric surrounding IPPs and focuses on the central issue of whether IPPs produce expensive power. If it can be established that IPPs produce cheaper power than WAPDA, then the second part of the argument that WAPDA became financially weak because of IPPs’ expensive power is destroyed. The alleged corruption issues are not discussed as they are beyond the scope of the paper. Section 1 provides a background to the establishment of the private power sector in Pakistan. Section 2 discusses various project risks faced by shareholders and lenders. Section 3 outlines the components of the electricity tariff. Section 4 traces the reasons for increase in electricity tariffs since 1994 when the Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) were signed. Section 5 shows the comparative costs of production of IPPs and WAPDA. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 811-823 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/811-823.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:811-823 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Javed A. Ansari Author-X-Name-First: Javed A. Author-X-Name-Last: Ansari Author-Workplace-Name: College of Business Management, Karachi. Author-Name: Rafique A. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Rafique A. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Karachi. Title: Technological Capability Building in South Korea: Some Lessons for Pakistan Abstract: Recent economic upheavals raise important questions about the nature of the transformation that has taken place in the East Asian economics. Are these economics really catching up with the West? Is there growth process sustainable? Or will they suffer the type of systemic disintegration experienced by the East European countries during the 1990s—Paul Krugman (1994) and Young (1994) had demonstrated similarities in the East Asian and East European growth paths some time ago. Technological upgrading is an important element in the development of a sustainable growth strategy. This paper seeks to describe policies and initiatives taken by the South Korean government to stimulate technological learning during 1960–1990—the decades during which the South Korean economy achieved a “miraculous” transformation. The description relics mainly on Korean sources and is based on our own field research in that country. Section one describes the technological learning processes and Section Two presents a discussion of the policies that facilitated this learning. Section Three briefly addresses the question: Did this type of technological learning make a contribution towards enhancing the sustainability of Korean development processes? The concluding section briefly reflects on the lessons that seem relevant for Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 825-845 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/825-845.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:825-845 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: A.R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First: A.R. Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Commission, Islamabad. Title: Electronic Commerce and International Trade of Pakistan Abstract: The international trade theories assume complete information on demand, supply, prices, product specification and technologies but such assumptions generally do not hold. In particular information is inadequate for both the importers and exporters to make optimal choices. Obviously countries with elaborate information mechanism move closer to their export and import potential than those who lack such mechanism. It is therefore, no wonder that the governments help producers in organising exhibitions, fairs etc for introducing their products. The advent of information technology, e.g. e-mail, Internet and Web sites, provides easy access to information. It provides an opportunity to introduce products and assess the demand for the products and at the same time allows importers to reach the minimum cost source. This also allows the producers to acquire technologies and explore the possibilities of subcontracting. Needless to add that the expanded net work affects disproportionately different producers and different countries; it depends on the intensity of use of electronic commerce. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 849-859 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/849-859.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:849-859 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Mazhar Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, Islamabad. Title: Telecom Industry: Competition, Interconnection Requirements, and the Need for Regulations Abstract: The word 'competition' in economic terminology means the independence of business actions opted by different sellers of the same product. However, in context of the telecom industry, the same word has opposite connotation—interdependence among competing service providers. The reason is that "the telecom system must work as a single system [because] users desire end to end services within an apparently 'seamless' communication network. They want connectedness and connectability" [Melody (1997), p. 53]. Therefore, to attract users, a new entrant in the industry, while intending to compete with the incumbent monopoly operator, has to ensure interconnection arrangements with the latter. Another unique characteristic of this industry in a competitive set-up is that, initially, a new entrant always has a weaker bargaining position for an interconnection agreement with the incumbent operator. It is so because, in the first place, it is expensive and also inadvisable for the new entrant to build a parallel infrastructure up front. To test the market, the entrant may better pay for access privileges to the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) and rent trunk lines from the incumbent Public Telecommunication Operator (PTO). Even if the new entrant builds a parallel infrastructure before he starts the service, he still has to go to the incumbent for interconnection privileges to attract subscribers for its service. If the incumbent operator simply denies interconnection, then most of the potential subscribers will most likely choose the incumbent operator, because they want to have access to more people on telephone. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 861-871 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/861-871.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:861-871 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sarfraz Khan Qureshi Author-X-Name-First: Sarfraz Khan Author-X-Name-Last: Qureshi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Regulatory Issues in Pakistan Telecommunication Abstract: Growth in telecom infrastructure and provision of modern telecom services to consumers at a cost based tariff helps growth of national economy. Modern telecoms serve as the engine of growth of national economy. Following the global trends of liberalisation and deregulation in telecoms monopolies which have thus far been providing inefficient communication at a greedily high tariffs are falling apart. Mergers in telecoms are not for increasing the size of the monopoly but to provide more efficient and cost effective services to the consumers. In Pakistan the erstwhile T&T department played a needful role at its time. Conversion of the department into a corporation and then into a company were steps necessary for following the global trends. Need now is to continue this trend further, eliminate the monopolistic approach by allowing more players in the field thus permitting the market forces to decide the provision of better quality of modern services at competitive price. In this paper, an attempt is made to specify the fundamental objectives of public policy which should govern the supply of telecommunications facilities in Pakistan. The economic perspective for the sector implies that the past approach towards the telecommunication policy in Pakistan was flawed and had required a drastic strategic change. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 873-882 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/873-882.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:873-882 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rehana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rizwana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rizwana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: A Decomposition of Male-Female Earnings Differentials Abstract: The participation of women in paid economic activities has increased in almost all the countries and Pakistan is no exception.1 However, the quantitative increase in female participation in market production has neither led to qualitative improvements in their lives nor to equality of opportunity and treatment between males and females at home and in the labour market. In emerging global economic scenario, the role of females in a country’s economic development is becoming critical. This will be a major issue in the next century, as welfare of a society can not be improved unless specific measures are undertaken to improve the socio-economic status of women. In this study we intend to examine the role of females in labour market, particularly their earnings relative to the earnings of males. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 885-898 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/885-898.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:885-898 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abid A. Burki Author-X-Name-First: Abid A. Author-X-Name-Last: Burki Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Tazeen Fasih Author-X-Name-First: Tazeen Author-X-Name-Last: Fasih Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Households’ Non-leisure Time Allocation for Children and Determinants of Child Labour in Punjab, Pakistan Abstract: Pakistan is one of those countries in Asia where incidence of child labour is very high. Children should not have to work, but the estimates of the Child Labour Survey 1996 show that there are 3.3 million working children between the ages of 5–14 years in Pakistan. Due to political, social and economic pressures, developing countries like Pakistan tend to react by enacting legislation which bans child labour. Countries which are now developed did the same thing when they successfully completed their industrialisation. Child labour is often harmful for the children, but there are situations where the alternatives to child labour may offer only deeper poverty both for the children and their families. Therefore, mishandling of this issue can make matters from bad to worse, for example, if legislation pushes children into even worse situations. The Government of Pakistan has enacted the Employment of Children Act of 1991 which has banned employment of children below the age of 14 years and their employment is now a cognisable offence under the Act punishable by imprisonment and fine.1 Such interventions can lead to reductions in the already limited choices available to the child. For example, this legislation may mean that the child can neither work nor go to school. To put it differently, this ban does not address market failures, for example, in the education market. Hence, to tackle this complex problem different policy instruments are required which address not only the aspects of market failures, but also distributional and efficiency considerations of such services. In handling the issue of child labour, the supply side factors which motivate households to allocate non-leisure time of their children can provide useful insights to address this complex problem. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 899-914 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/899-914.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:899-914 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Valerie L. Durrant Author-X-Name-First: Valerie L. Author-X-Name-Last: Durrant Author-Workplace-Name: Population Council, Islamabad. Title: Community Influences on Schooling and Work Activity of Youth in Pakistan Abstract: The schooling and work activities of youth remain fundamental to their human capital development. Yet we have limited understanding of factors influencing these activities in Pakistan and elsewhere. The bulk of research on children’s work and schooling looks primarily to household-level factors to explain current rates. As such, activities’ of youth are viewed as a product of family strategies for confronting poverty. On the other hand, the influences at the community level on work and schooling of youth have received relatively little attention and remain largely undeveloped in the literature. Further, work and schooling activities remain are usually investigated separately in the analyses. Most studies focus on either the work activities or schooling of youth, despite recent appeals to examine these activities simultaneously [DeGraff, Bilsborrow and Herrin (1993); Mahmood, Javaid and Baig (1994) and Weiner and Noman (1997)]. The purpose of this paper is to assess the participation of youth in work and schooling activities and the way household and community factors shape these activities. I address two central research questions in this paper. First, what is the distribution of Pakistani youth in work and schooling activities? Second, what factors influence the likelihood that youth engage in work and/or schooling? Particularly, what is the influence of community-level factors (specifically, availability of schools, wage returns to education, and infrastructure development) on the activities of youth? Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 915-937 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/915-937.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:915-937 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ather Maqsood Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Ather Maqsood Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Sources of Earnings Differentials Among Migrants and Natives Abstract: The theory of human capital postulates that earnings of different categories of workers, be they male or female, black or white, unionised or non-unionised depend on the level of human capital endowment of these individuals [Becker (1964) and Mineer (1974)]. Besides educational attainment and on-the-job experience, part of the earnings differential, at lest in the short run, can also result from market imperfections such as restrictions on factor mobility or other artificial distortions. However, despite concerted efforts by public and social institutions to remove social injustice, the automatic long run market clearance as envisaged by classical economists is not always there. It is not uncommon to find workers with identical background and skills receiving differentials treatment in terms of wages and other rewards. This suggests that unobservable personal characteristics are also positively valued at the market and that the market has a "taste" for discrimination! The theory of discrimination thus hypothesises that differential wages ,can exit if market differentiates and treats distinct categories of workers on the basis of race, gender or similar categorisations. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 939-953 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/939-953.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:939-953 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Najam US Saqib Author-X-Name-First: Najam US Author-X-Name-Last: Saqib Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: A Critical Assessment of Free Public Schooling in Pakistan Abstract: Pakistan appeared on the map of the earth on August 14, 1947 as the British left the Indian subcontinent. The World Bank (1992) classifies Pakistan as a low income country on the basis of its per capita GNP. It is the ninth most populous and perhaps one of the fastest growing nations of the world. Unfortunately, Pakistan has also been one of the most illiterate countries of the world. Statistics collected four years after independence show that 86 percent people at that time could not read or write in any language. Taking note of this disturbing situation, almost all the relevant government documents ranging from the reports of various commissions formed to reform education to policy documents like five year plans emphasise eradication of mass illiteracy and provision of universal primary education as an objective of public policy. Free education for all has been traditionally advocated as a policy which would sooner or later achieve these goals. This policy has also been considered desirable from the view point of equity and social justice. At the time of independence, almost all the schools in the rural areas were public schools which charged only nominal tuition. In the urban areas a few private schools usually run by religious or community organisations could also be found. In October 1972, all the private schools were nationalised and education up to tenth grade was made free. Opening of private schools was again allowed in 1979. With this began an era of expensive private schools, particularly in the urban areas, existing side by side with low quality free public schools. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 955-976 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/955-976.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:955-976 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Arif Sargana Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Arif Author-X-Name-Last: Sargana Author-Workplace-Name: ASIANICS Agro-Dev. International, Islamabad. Title: The Urban Informal Sector in an Adjusting Economy: The Case of Pakistan Abstract: The concept of the informal sector has gained popularity since the well-known study by International Labour Organisation [ILO] in 1972 Kenya. Since then it has become a centre stage in policy discussion regarding unemployment and poverty alleviation. Though economists are still not able to give an authentic and unanimous definition of the informal sector, it is commonly known as the non-regulated sector of the economy. Despite the fact that the informal sector provides a large chunk of GDP and employment in the national economy, this sector is very much neglected in Pakistan. A few studies have been conducted to measure the size and the role of urban informal sector in past. However, the employment estimates provided by these studies have always been controversial. In addition, in all of these studies attention has been focused mainly to the manufacturing sector. Though the importance of the manufacturing sector cannot be denied, the services sector is also of significant importance as well, however it has received relatively less attention in the past. In this study, sufficient attention has been given to this neglected sector and focus is given to its role in employment in the urban informal sector. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 977-994 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/977-994.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:977-994 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bashir Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Bashir Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author-Name: Munir Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Munir Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author-Name: Zulfiqar Ahmad Gill Author-X-Name-First: Zulfiqar Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Gill Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Title: Restoration of Soil Health for Achieving Sustainable Growth in Agriculture Abstract: Total geographical area of Pakistan is 79.61 million hectares (m.ha.). Area under cultivation is 21.59 m.ha.; of which, only 5.34 m.ha. (i.e., 25 percent) is free from soil limitations and is fit for intensive agriculture [Mian and Mirza (1993)]. The remaining agricultural lands have various types of problems including formation of slow permeability, water logging, salinity and sodicity, and wind and water erosion. Thus, on an average, three out of four hectares of cultivated land in Pakistan are in poor health. This in turn is causing temporary or permanent decline in the productive capacity of the land. Therefore, poor soil health is posing serious threat to the sustainable growth of agriculture. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 997-1015 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/997-1015.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:997-1015 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid Mustafa Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Mustafa Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author-Name: Zulfiqar Ahmad Gill Author-X-Name-First: Zulfiqar Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Gill Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Title: Cooperatives and Development: Lessons from the Punjab Experience Abstract: Traditionally, cooperatives have been expected to serve a broad set of sociopolitical and economic objectives ranging from self-help and grass-root participation to welfare and distribution, including economies of scale and social control over resource allocation and mobilisation. However, these various objectives are not mutually consistent. There exists substantial trade-off in the realisation of many of these goals. It is therefore necessary to weigh their relative importance in the felt needs and priorities of a particular community at any given point of time if performance of cooperatives is to be evaluated in an appropriate context. An attempt to fulfil a range of these conflicting objectives simultaneously has eventually led to a broad based disenchantment with the cooperative movement. This paper highlights two sets of issues with respect to cooperative development. First, it discusses the concept of cooperation and illustrates that the contradictions in the ideology and practice are more significant in explaining the limitations of cooperatives to serve as an instrument of development. Second, the paper points out that in the absence of various external and internal prerequisites, especially due to the lack of their recognition, cooperatives tend to be inefficient relative to other forms of traditional institutions even after receiving subsidies and other types of assistance, thus neither achieving efficiency nor development. By analysing the area of agricultural credit, in which cooperatives have traditionally been most active in the Punjab, this paper illustrates various dilemmas and contradictions and the preconditions necessary for credit cooperatives to reach the rural poor effectively. Finally, the paper points out the implications of the past experience for the future role of cooperatives in Punjab. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1017-1030 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1017-1030.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1017-1030 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Ali Chaudhary Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhary Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Mushtaq Ahmad Khan Author-X-Name-First: Mushtaq Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Kaukab Hassan Naqvi Author-X-Name-First: Kaukab Hassan Author-X-Name-Last: Naqvi Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Estimates of Farm Output Supply and Input Demand Elasticities: The Translog Profit Function Approach Abstract: The importance of estimating valid elasticities of farm output supply and input demand can hardly be overemphasised. Reliable estimates of these elasticities are sine qua non for predicting accurately the farmer responsiveness to changes in inputoutput prices and government taxes and thereby for formulating successful agricultural incentive programmes consistent with national requirements of food, development and exports. In fact, robust estimates of the coefficients of such elasticities can serve as a solid basis in determining effective policy relevant interventions for promoting production, equity, efficiency, and finally egalitarian income distribution in the farm sector of the economy. Farmer input factor demand and output supply elasticities have earlier been derived with direct or indirect application of the Cobb-Douglas production function to farm survey data [Lau and Yotopoulos (1971); Yotopoulos (1972); Yotopoulos, Lau and Lin (1976); Junankar (1980) and Sindhu and Baanannte (1981)]. The Cobb- Douglas production function is based on highly restricted assumptions such as the unitary elasticity of substitution, constant returns to scale and "a priori" imposition of separability restrictions. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1031-1050 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1031-1050.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1031-1050 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sohail Jehangir Malik Author-X-Name-First: Sohail Jehangir Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Innovative Environmental Technologies, Inc., USA Author-Name: Hina Nazli Author-X-Name-First: Hina Author-X-Name-Last: Nazli Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Rural Poverty and Land Degradation: A Review of the Current State of Knowledge Abstract: By highlighting the lack of rigorous evidence and calling for a greater understanding of the interaction of the two processes, a recent study [Nelson et al. (1997)] has called into question the strong perception that poverty is both a consequence as well as a cause of resource degradation. This perception which is widely held is strongly evident in the writings of the multilateral development agencies such as the World Bank (1990) and IFAD (1992) and exists despite extensive reviews which indicate that the short- and long-term implications of land degradation are not very clear [see Scherr and Yadav (1995)]. Similarly, while knowledge about poverty is expanding rapidly, thanks in large parts to the massive international focus and resources brought to bear on its understanding in the past ten years or so; the existing state of knowledge is still far from providing a comprehensive understanding of all the complex dimensions of its processes. The understanding of the interactions of poverty and land degradation is even less clear and limited. This paper reviews the existing knowledge about the relationship between poverty and land degradation and draws implications for research. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1053-1070 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1053-1070.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1053-1070 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abu Abdullah Author-X-Name-First: Abu Author-X-Name-Last: Abdullah Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Development Economics, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Title: Poverty and Reforms in Bangladesh Abstract: In a memorable speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Nikita Krushehev predicted that communism would bury capitalism. In less emotive and more economistic terms, he was saying in effect that centrally planned economies would outperform market economies in terms of both output growth and social justice. History has not been kind to Krushehev. Not only central planning but even milder forms of state interventionism now stand discredited, and developing countries round the world are desperately trying to install functioning market economics. This sea-change in development philosophy generally owes something to donor conditionalities associated with structural adjustment credits, to the extent that “reforms” and “structural adjustment” have become virtually synonymous. Shortterm internal or external balance crises, and longer-term stagnation, also signalled to policy-makers the bankruptcy of over-interventionist policies—a lesson driven home by the phenomenal growth performance of the NIC’s, apparently the fruit of marketfriendly policies. In general, reform measures can be classified into three types: expenditurereducing, i.e., monetary, fiscal and wage restraints, expenditure—switching or supply-side measures intended to shift resources from non-tradable to tradables, e.g. real devaluation, tariff and subsidy reduction (aimed at bringing domestic prices in line with world prices for tradables), and institutional and policy reforms primarily armed at providing the private sector with a congenial environment. The policy package appropriate for a century will depend on initial conditions, e.g. demand-side policies will be most effective in a country where desired absorption exceeds full employment output capacity. And a country whose social and cultural backgrounds are conducive to rapid response to expenditure switching will have less need for expenditure reduction with its inevitable contractionary consequences. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1071-1079 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1071-1079.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1071-1079 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Basanta K. Pradhan Author-X-Name-First: Basanta K. Author-X-Name-Last: Pradhan Author-Workplace-Name: National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, India. Author-Name: M.R. Saluja Author-X-Name-First: M.R. Author-X-Name-Last: Saluja Author-Workplace-Name: National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, India. Title: An Assessment of Poverty Studies in India with Special Reference to Economic Reforms Abstract: As it is well-known, the study of poverty is extremely important on moral and philosophical and also, political grounds. Further, evidences are available to show that poverty affects growth adversely. We, therefore, have made an attempt to review some of the important studies on poverty in India. The concept of poverty relates to socially perceived deprivation with respect to basic minimum needs. In the Indian context, poverty is measured in terms of a specified normative poverty line reflecting the minimum living standard of the people. Defining a poverty line is, therefore, the first step in estimating poverty. According to the Expert Group (1993), a poverty line, dividing the poor from the non-poor, is used by putting a price on the minimum required consumption levels of food, clothing, shelter, fuel and health care, etc. In equal practice however, the poverty lines are normative only in terms of calorie requirements of the diet. Since the beginning of sixties a number of studies have been conducted to estimate the incidence of poverty and to find out the determinants of poverty. Different methods have been used to estimate the incidence. All these are, however, based on the use of poverty lines and the distribution of expenditure of households. These lines have been updated by using alternative price index numbers, and, expectedly, it has resulted in different estimates. Even the base year poverty lines, used by various authors, are different. Various measures of poverty to know its severity and depth have also been estimated by the researchers. The relationships between the incidence of poverty and its determinants have been estimated by using different variables and models. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1081-1102 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1081-1102.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1081-1102 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ahmad Khan Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Monopoly Control Authority, Ministry of Finance, Islamabad. Title: Reform Issues in Tax Policy and Tax Administration for Self-reliant Development Abstract: Similar to most countries, objectives of the taxation system in Pakistan are not well-defined. The stated objectives include resource generation, promoting area/sectorspecific economic activities, discouraging undesired imports/production, and encouraging savings and investment. These objectives have been met through a variety of tax concessions and exemptions, rebates and credits, and differentiated tax rates and tariffs. The revenue short falls/leakages resulting from preferential tax treatment of the desired activities were offset through appropriate changes in various fiscal instruments, e.g. high tax rates and tariffs, regulatory duties, extended withholding and presumptive taxes, excise duties on services, and many more. These measures, in turn, have complicated the taxation system and adversely affected the equity, neutrality and progressivity thereof. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1105-1122 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1105-1122.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1105-1122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mushtaq Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Mushtaq Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: National Tariff Commission, Islamabad. Title: Fiscal Adjustment: Trade-offs of Macro-economic Goals and Recent Policy Reforms in Pakistan Abstract: Fiscal policy, being an embodiment of government measures to raise resources through taxes, tariffs of utilities, user charges and pricing of public sector goods, diverts resources from private sector to the government which rechannels these resource into socially preferred activities. The resource diversion and their rechannelisation helps achieve certain economic goals, and for this reason, the fiscal policy has strong interactive linkages with other macro economic policies. By virtue of this strong bond, the fiscal indicators have a close interactive association with other macro economic indicators. For this reason, the role of fiscal policy is inevitably vulnerable to influences of other economic policies and fiscal discipline and general economic health of the country become interlinked. This linkage results in generating trade offs between different macroeconomic policy goals. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how interaction of macro economic policies in Pakistan has moved over the years in past and to assess the ultimate impact on fiscal adjustment of economic policies initiated under the structural adjustment and stabilisation (SAAS) reforms. This presentation centres around the basic hypothesis that the fiscal stability chiefly depends on interaction between public finances and other macro indicators of the economy which are differently influenced by different policies. The objective is to demonstrate how conflicting goals made the task of the policy mix under SAAS reforms difficult in reducing the fiscal gap. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1123-1142 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1123-1142.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1123-1142 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aqdas Ali Kazmi Author-X-Name-First: Aqdas Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Kazmi Author-Workplace-Name: Planning and Development Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Fiscal Policies of Pakistan and Kazmi's Hypothesis Abstract: Pakistan has maintained an average GDP growth rate of about 5.5 percent during the period 1981-98. An analysis of the growth experience of Pakistan, however, indicates that some basic macroeconomic imbalances have been built in the economy during this period, which have serious implications for long-term sustainability of the economic growth of the country. The growth performance of Pakistan has synchronised with declining rate of domestic savings, erratic and inconsistent variations in the national savings ratios, low level of domestic investment and excessive dependence on the external resource inflow (current account deficit) to finance the gap between national savings and the level of gross investment. In other words, Saving-Investment and Import-Export Gaps in the economy have widened during this period. These macroeconomic imbalances have been highlighted from time to time in numerous studies such as Burki (1996, 1998); Hasan (1998); Hussain (1999); Kazmi (1991, 1994, 1998); Papanek (1996) and Qureshi (1989). Pakistan's national savings as a percentage of GDP, have fluctuated around a low level of 14 percent with a downward trend in 1990s while the private savings during the period 1981-98 have failed to register any significant upward movement. Since the public sector investment has been a multiple of the level of public savings, the public sector continues to draw heavily from the private savings, and to supplement these savings through internal and external borrowings, as well as deficit financing. The critical factor in public finance and fiscal management of Pakistan is the growing deficit in the revenue budget which also is the main cause of the low public sector savings. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1143-1154 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1143-1154.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1143-1154 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fazal Husain Author-X-Name-First: Fazal Author-X-Name-Last: Husain Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Tariq Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Tariq Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Causality between Money and Prices: Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: The relationship between money and prices has been a debated issue among economic schools of thought particularly between the Monetarists and the Keynesians. The monetarists claim that changes in money stocks cause changes in price levels. In other words, the direction of causation runs from money to prices implying that prices can be controlled through money supply. The keynesians, on the other hand, argue that money is important but is not responsible for changes in price levels. Instead, structural factors play important role suggesting that money supply is not an effective instrument to control price changes. The causal relationship between money and prices has been extensively tested in various countries. For example, Brillembourg and Khan (1979) examined this relationship in USA. Using Sims procedure for the period 1870–1975, they found unidirectional causality running from money to prices. Similar directions of causation are reported by Lee and Li (1983) and Ramachandran and Kamaiah (1992) who investigated the causal relationship in Singapore and India respectively. On the other hand, Aghevli and Khan (1978), while investigating the causal relationship in Brazil, Columbia, the Dominican Republic, and Thailand, found bidirectional causality between money and prices in these countries. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1155-1161 Volume: 37 Issue: 4 Year: 1998 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/1998/Volume4/1155-1161.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:37:y:1998:i:4:p:1155-1161