Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rehana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad Title: State of Technology and Productivity in Pakistan’s Manufacturing Industries: Some Strategic Directions to Build Technological Competence Abstract: Historically, Pakistan’s economic growth record, especially of the manufacturing sector, has been quite satisfactory. However, since the late 1980s Pakistan has been facing a slow growth of manufacturing industries, particularly of the large-scale manufacturing units. This has led some economists to express the apprehension that perhaps de-industrialisation is taking place in the country. A careful analysis of the causes of this sluggish growth suggests that one of the main contributory factors is the slow growth in total factor productivity (TFP)—the best overall measure of competitiveness. What has caused this productivity slow-down? For Pakistan there is clear evidence of a relationship between the growth in total factor productivity and the ailing S & T apparatus. The results presented in the study also lend support to the hypothesis that knowledge capital, human capital, openness, and government policies are crucial determinants of total factor productivity growth. Given a liberal economic environment in the country, which is essential to improve efficiency and productivity, the paper offers four strategic directions in order to improve the status of the S & T system in Pakistan (1) augment the public sector S & T apparatus with the private sector funding and oversight; (2) take measures to upgrade scientific research institutions to the international standard; (3) streamline the technology creation, absorption, and diffusion system; and (4) enhance the demand for S & T in industries. These strategic directions are designed in such a manner that they work together towards a series of phased reforms, which can create incentives and market-based mechanisms to enhance the technology system without relying on a radical shift in the governance element of the bureaucracy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1-21 Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume1/1-21.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:1:p:1-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Farooq Arby Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Farooq Arby Author-Workplace-Name: State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi. Title: Predicting Money Multiplier in Pakistan Abstract: The paper has developed time-series models for the monthly money multiplier and its components, viz., currency-deposit ratio, reserve-deposit ratio, etc. A comparison is made between the predictive performance of the aggregate multiplier and the component models. It is found that the projected values of the multiplier on the basis of the aggregate model are closer to actual values as compared to those worked out on the basis of the component models. Thus, for the purposes of projecting the money multiplier, it may be preferable to focus on the aggregate money multiplier model. Stability tests, applied to the identified models for each component and the overall multiplier, suggest that all the models are stable. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 23-35 Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume1/23-35.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:1:p:23-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sajjad Akhtar Author-X-Name-First: Sajjad Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Author-Name: Fauzia Malik Author-X-Name-First: Fauzia Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Pakistan’s Trade Performance vis-à-vis Its Major Trading Partners Abstract: In contrast to earlier empirical research that documents the import and export price elasticities at an aggregate level, this article estimates bilateral price and income impacts on Pakistan’s trade performance with its four major trading partners, i.e., USA, UK, Germany, and Japan. Using quarterly data for the period 1982-I–1996-IV and the Three-stage Least Square technique, the study documents the impact of real devaluation, real income, export incentives, and domestic inflation on trade performance with respect to each of the four trading partners. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 37-50 Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume1/37-50.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:1:p:37-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naziruddin Abdullah Author-X-Name-First: Naziruddin Author-X-Name-Last: Abdullah Author-Workplace-Name: International Islamic University, Gombak, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia. Title: The Effects of Price-support Programme on Farm Tenancy Patterns and Farm Profitability: Some Evidence from Malaysia Abstract: Translog normalised restricted profit function model is specified and estimated for the four rice granary areas, each administered by a local government body, namely, the MIP, the KIP, the NWSP, and the KEIP, in which the price-support programme has some noticeable effects on farm tenancy and farms profitability. So far, there have been no empirical studies that have used this methodological framework to analyse such economic phenomenon in Malaysia. This, in fact, is the main contribution of the present paper. From the estimated function, the shadow values of land and labour are computed, which in turn are used to elucidate the behaviour of rice farmers in Malaysia. Together, the estimated and computed results, to a large extent, are successful in explaining the observed changes in farm tenancy patterns and the way the farmers (comprised of owneroperator, owner-tenant, and tenant-farmer) are “economically” responding to the sum of profits generated from rice farming and, subsequently, from the programme. Further, given the price-support programme, the results also point to the fact that rice farming in Malaysia is as lucrative a job as any other sub-sector outside this, in particular unskilled urban workers and electronics workers, and thus this programme could be pursued further. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 51-72 Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume1/51-72.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:1:p:51-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeba Ayesha Sathar Author-X-Name-First: Zeba Ayesha Author-X-Name-Last: Sathar Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Shahnaz Kazi Author-X-Name-First: Shahnaz Author-X-Name-Last: Kazi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, and World Bank. Title: Women’s Autonomy in the Context of Rural Pakistan Abstract: The paper explores the elements that constitute women’s autonomy in rural Pakistan. Hitherto most research on women’s status in Pakistan has either been restricted to proxy measures of women’s status generally or to the urban areas. Community or region, each of which has distinctive features, have an overriding influence on this subject. Northern Punjabi women have lower economic autonomy but greater mobility and decision-making authority than women in Southern Punjab. Gender systems at the village level are also important predictors of women’s autonomy. Economic class has a weak and ambivalent influence on women’s autonomy in rural Punjab. Class influences both education and employment of women, these remains the routes to empowerment in rural settings. While most women in rural areas contribute economically, the majority works on the household farm or within the household economic unit. These women do not derive any additional autonomy as a result of this contribution. Paid employment, though offset by other restrictions on poor women, offers greater potential for women’s autonomy. Education, on the other hand, has a lesser influence on female autonomy in the rural Punjabi context. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 89-110 Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume2/89-110.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:2:p:89-110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mueen Nasir Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Mueen Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Earnings Differential between Public and Private Sectors in Pakistan Abstract: The paper explores the earnings differential between public and private sectors in Pakistan. The private sector is further divided into formal and informal sectors for comparison purposes. It utilises an expanded version of the human capital model to determine important determinants of earnings in each sector. Using standard technique, the earnings are decomposed into two parts, i.e., differential due to personal characteristics and due to earnings structure of the particular sector. The Labour Force Survey 1996-97 is used for the analysis of wage differential. Results indicate that workers in public sector earn more than both private formal as well as informal sector workers. These earnings are higher due to their superior personal human capital endowment; however, the wage structure of the public sector is not helping them. The informal sector workers are earning lower than both public sector and private formal sector workers due to both personal characteristics and wage structure of the informal sector. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 111-130 Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume2/111-130.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:2:p:111-130 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Waheed-Uz-Zaman Author-X-Name-First: Waheed-Uz- Author-X-Name-Last: Zaman Author-Workplace-Name: NDP-Sector Policy Studies Project, and International Irrigation Management Institute, Lahore. Title: Impacts of Irrigation and Drainage Development Projects in Pakistan: Farmers’ Perceptions Abstract: Using well-designed sample, anecdotal evidence from farmers of a recently completed irrigation and drainage project in Bhawalnagar Pakistan, valuable impact indicators could be assessed. The case study suggests that although this simple and quick method is not a substitute for the detailed scientific survey, yet it can be handy, sufficient, and could be usefully used at a nominal cost as a supplementary method. The parameters approached were the depth to water-table, crop yields, cropping pattern, abandoned lands, water distribution, and seepage reduction, etc. The results showed that some of these, including the depth to water-table, seepage reduction, and cropping pattern compared well with previous technical studies, while some others did not. The physical interventions of the project under quick evaluation comprised concrete lining of about 170 kms of the distributary canals and 352 kms of surface drains. The paper concludes that the farmers’ perceptions, when carefully designed and analysed, offer substantial feedback for remedial actions and for planning future projects. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 131-152 Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume2/131-152.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:2:p:131-152 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammed Ibrahim El-Sakka Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed Ibrahim Author-X-Name-Last: El-Sakka Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Kuwait University. Author-Name: Naief Hamad Al-Mutairi Author-X-Name-First: Naief Hamad Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Mutairi Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Kuwait University. Title: Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience Abstract: This paper aims at analysing the relationship between exports and economic growth in the Arab countries using annual data for the period 1970–1999. Section two of this study presents a theoretical background of the relationship between exports and economic growth. Literature review is found in Section 3. In Section 4, the methodological issues of studying this relationship are discussed. Results of stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) as well as Bivariate Johansen-Juseluis tests for cointegration are presented in Section 5. Stationarity tests suggest that time series are non-stationary in their levels and seem to be stationary in their first differences. Testing for long-run cointegration relationship using Johansen-Juseluis approach, it is found that in general there is no cointegration relationship between exports and GDP. For this reason, we abandoned the error correction model and tested for causality using different versions of Granger’s causality test. We found mixed results about the causal relationship between exports and GDP in Arab countries. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 153-169 Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume2/153-169.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:2:p:153-169 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul P. Streeten Author-X-Name-First: Paul P. Author-X-Name-Last: Streeten Author-Workplace-Name: World Development, and Department of Economics, Boston University, USA. Title: What’s Wrong with Contemporary Economics? Abstract: It is argued that in educating economists we should sacrifice some of the more technical aspects of economics (which can be learned later), in favour of the compulsory inclusion of (a) philosophy, (b) political science and (c) economic history. Three reasons for interdisciplinary studies are given. In the discussion of the place of mathematics in economics fuzziness enters when the symbols a, b, c are identified with individuals, firms, or farms. The identification of the precise symbol with the often ambiguous and fuzzy reality, invites lack of precision and blurs the concepts. If the social sciences, including economics, are regarded as a “soft” technology compared with the “hard” technology of the natural sciences, development studies have been regarded as the soft underbelly of “economic science”. In development economics the important question is: what are the springs of development? We must confess that we cannot answer this question, that we do not know what causes successful development. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 191-211 Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume3/191-211.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:3:p:191-211 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syed Mubashir Ali Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mubashir Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Gender and Health Care Utilisation in Pakistan Abstract: This study is undertaken to test whether or not there exists gender bias in health care utilisation of sick children in Pakistan. Overall, the results are encouraging, as medical consultation has been sought for by a very high proportion (79 percent) of sick children. Moreover, there do not appear to be significant differences by gender in health care utilisation, be it curative or preventive. This is so in spite of the fact that many studies on various gender-related issues in Pakistan have generally shown significant gender bias in favour of male children. Thus one may conclude that parental altruism prevails at least in the provision of health care to sick children. However, the extent and magnitude of effect varies by geographical, socio-economic, and demographic characteristics of the mother. In view of these findings, efforts should be made to minimise gender differentials among various categories of people so that children living in any circumstances may have equal opportunity of health care utilisation. This will be possible when health care facilities are easily accessible to all. The Lady Health Workers Programme of the Government of Pakistan is a major positive step in this regard. Under this programme, health care facilities are provided at people’s door-step. The expansion of this programme will be extremely beneficial in helping parents to provide health care facilities to sick children, both male and female. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 213-234 Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume3/213-234.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:3:p:213-234 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Erdinc Telatar Author-X-Name-First: Erdinc Author-X-Name-Last: Telatar Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, Ankara, Turkey. Author-Name: Funda Telatar Author-X-Name-First: Funda Author-X-Name-Last: Telatar Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Gazi University, Besevler, Ankara, Turkey. Author-Name: Sadiye Turkmen Author-X-Name-First: Sadiye Author-X-Name-Last: Turkmen Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, Ankara, Turkey. Title: Frisch Demand Functions and Intertemporal Behaviour in Consumption: The Turkish Case Abstract: This paper examines the intertemporal behaviour in consumption for Turkey which has been experiencing high and chronic inflation since the late 1970s. The Frisch demand system is used to estimate three separate but inextricably intertemporal elasticities: intertemporal price elasticities of demand, commodity-specific intertemporal elasticities, and the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption. Our main result is that the Turkish households are reluctant to move their expenditures on non-durable goods from the current period to the next period, regardless of how high nominal interest rates are. This interesting result shows that the consumption behaviour in Turkey has been mainly shaped by uncertainty created by inflationary process and the tendency towards hedging against inflation. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 235-246 Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume3/235-246.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:3:p:235-246 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ghulam Yasin Soomro Author-X-Name-First: Ghulam Yasin Author-X-Name-Last: Soomro Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: A Re-examination of Fertility Transition in Pakistan Abstract: Pakistan is passing through an early stage of fertility transition. The slow-paced transition has been analysed in an earlier study done by Sathar and Casterline (1998), which concludes that the increase in the levels of prevalence has accelerated the fertility transition in Pakistan and as a consequence marital fertility has declined. However, this claim is not supported by the relevant statistics. A re-examination reveals that the effect of contraception is the lowest in the decline of fertility. The rise in marriages and breastfeeding has played a significant inhibiting role in the decline of fertility and marital fertility has remained constant. The structural adjustment programme (SAP), initiated in late 1980s, has led to more poverty and the proportion of never-married has increased in Pakistan as revealed by the Population Census 1998. Labour force participation by the females increased in the post-SAP period. The new economic situation appears to be indirectly responsible for the decline of fertility, and it appears to be consistent with the Malthusian macro theory of fertility. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 247-261 Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume3/247-261.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:3:p:247-261 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Idrus Author-X-Name-First: M. Author-X-Name-Last: Idrus Author-Workplace-Name: University of Bradford, U.K. Author-Name: S. Cameron Author-X-Name-First: S. Author-X-Name-Last: Cameron Author-Workplace-Name: University of Bradford, U.K. Title: Returns to Education between the Self-employed and Employed Sectors: Evidence from Malaysia Abstract: Investment in human capital in terms of returns to education is considered a crucial factor that contributes to the remarkable economic growth especially in the rapidly developing countries. Since poverty and education are closely related, this paper attempts to examine whether returns to education differ between the self-employed and employed sectors in the rural Malay area in Rantau, Malaysia. Using the adjusted Mincerian Earnings function and the dummy variables approach, the empirical finding shows that returns to education do not differ between the self-employed and employed sectors in the rural Malay society. Thus, it can be deduced that there is no significant difference between the self-employed and employed sectors in those two sectors. Interestingly, it also reveals that private rates of return (ROR) increase by the level of schooling and they are the highest at the Secondary level. Finally, appropriate strategies are further suggested to alleviate poverty in the case study area. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 263-268 Volume: 39 Issue: 3 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume3/263-268.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:3:p:263-268 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: A. R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First: A. R. Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Financing Economic Development Abstract: We understand that both the level as well as the composition of investment play a crucial role in the economic development process. However, it needs to be understood that investment contributes to the growth process by increasing the productive capacity, improving the technology, and enhancing the competitiveness of an economy. And when it is supplemented with investment in the social sectors, it also results in human development. The demand for investment depends on strong macroeconomic fundamentals comprising stability of exchange rates, fiscal prudence, feasible structure of financial market, including the regulatory and supervisory framework and the size and quality of the securities and bond markets, and continuity of a consistent investment policy.1 Two types of capital formation may be distinguished, viz., physical capital and human capital. Since there are significant differences between private and social profitabilities in the social sectors, an optimal level of investment in human resources would depend on the perception of and the decisions taken by the policy-makers to bridge the gap between the two types of profitabilities. Nevertheless, implementation of an investment decision, whether related to physical or social investment, is contingent on the availability of sufficient domestic and external investible resources. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 293-311 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/293-311.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:293-311 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ismail Sirageldin Author-X-Name-First: Ismail Author-X-Name-Last: Sirageldin Author-Workplace-Name: The Johns Hopkins University, USA. Title: Global Interdependence, Privatisation of Risk and Human Development Abstract: The paper focuses on how patterns and modes of global interdependence combined with the privatisation of risk, influence human development. International finance plays an important developmental role. However, the privatisation of risk, a result of increasingly unregulated and liberalised financial markets, tend to create speculative activities with major negative systemic effects that hinder positive human development, especially in the developing countries. However, sustainable human development requires more than financial stability. Internally oriented socioeconomic and political reforms (IOSR) are essential for the developing countries, especially in the present phase of their demographic transition. Such reforms could provide both resilience and adaptive capacity for societies to cope in an environment of increased interdependence, the article concludes. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 313-336 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/313-336.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:313-336 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark R. Rosenzweig Author-X-Name-First: Mark R. Author-X-Name-Last: Rosenzweig Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA. Title: The Consequences of the Agricultural Productivity Growth for Rural Landless Households: Findings from Research Based on the Indian Green Revolution Experience Abstract: There has been much debate over the extent to which economic growth reduces poverty and augments human development among the poor. This paper describes ongoing research using survey data on the Green Revolution experience in India that focuses on this issue. The research is based on a general-equilibrium model of labour markets for adults and children that differentiates households by whether they own land and incorporates a public sector that chooses the amount of school building. The empirical results suggest, consistent with the model, that expectations of improvements in agricultural productivity increase the schooling of children in landed households and reduce schooling in landless households, in part because of the operation of the child labour market, as landless child labour is used to replace landed child labour lost due to increased child school attendance in landed households. The results also show, however, that school construction in India was undertaken at higher levels in areas in which there were expectations of greater future productivity increases, and that the closer proximity of schools differentially benefited landless households. Thus school building policy in India tended to offset the adverse distributional consequences of agricultural technological change in the early stages of the Green Revolution. The allocation of schools, however, did not fully offset the incentives for landless households to reduce schooling investments. The perverse correlation between human development and income growth observed among the poor landless households in India at the initial stages of the Green Revolution, thus, was not due to lack of responsiveness of public resources but to the lack of a return to schooling in the non-farm sector. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 337-361 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/337-361.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:337-361 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Colin Kirkpatrick Author-X-Name-First: Colin Author-X-Name-Last: Kirkpatrick Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester, England. Title: Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction Abstract: The frequent failure of financial liberalisation efforts in developing countries, and the serious damage which recent financial crises have imposed on these economies, have led to renewed attempts to understand the relationships between financial sector development, economic growth and poverty reduction, and to provide a more robust intellectual foundation on which to design efficient and pro-poor financial sector policies for developing countries. The paper examines the contribution that financial sector development can make to poverty reduction in developing countries. The linkages between financial and economic growth, and between economic growth and poverty reduction, are considered, and some preliminary empirical evidence is presented on these linkages. The paper goes on to argue that financial market imperfections are a key constraint on pro-poor growth, and that public policy directed at the correction of these financial market failures is needed to ensure that financial development contributes effectively to growth and poverty reduction. The final part of the paper examines in some detail the role of financial regulation and supervision policy as a key area for public intervention directed at enhancing the financial sector’s contribution to poverty reduction. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 363-388 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/363-388.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:363-388 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gavin W. Jones Author-X-Name-First: Gavin W. Author-X-Name-Last: Jones Author-Workplace-Name: Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Title: Human Resources, Poverty, and Regional Development Abstract: Human development has moved to centre stage in development theory. Education makes an important contribution to economic growth, but achievement of mass education is important for a number of other reasons as well. Inequality of access to education is a serious issue everywhere, and serves to reinforce the inequality of income. Inequality is evident from the viewpoint of socio-economic background, of gender, and of regional disparities. In a poverty alleviation programme, tackling regional inequalities in education may be crucial, yet it raises many issues. Will expanding educational opportunities only result in frustration if appropriate jobs are not available? Is the key role of education in poor regions to enable educated young people to migrate elsewhere to find better jobs? In international comparisons, Pakistan appears well behind comparable countries in educational development. “Path dependency” means that the legacy of past deficiencies in expanding education will adversely affect Pakistan’s development for decades to come, and what is done now in education will affect development for half a century. A simple projection shows that even with the highly optimistic assumption that by 2030, Pakistan will reach the enrolment rates currently achieved in the United States, the proportion of the working-age population in that year with no education or only primary school education would still be as high as 35 percent. This underlines the need for a strong drive to expand educational opportunity. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 389-413 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/389-413.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:389-413 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ather H. Akbari Author-X-Name-First: Ather H. Author-X-Name-Last: Akbari Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Saint Mary’s University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Author-Name: Naeem Muhammed Author-X-Name-First: Naeem Author-X-Name-Last: Muhammed Author-Workplace-Name: Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore. Title: Educational Quality and Labour Market Performance in Developing Countries: Some Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: Several studies have shown that investment in the quality of education has a higher payoff than investment in quantity alone.1 However, in many developing countries, investment in improving educational quality is still accorded a lower priority than investment in educational quantity. Countries which commit more resources towards education are generally observed to expand their enrolment ratios while paying little attention on improving such schooling inputs as student-teacher ratio that contribute towards improvement of educational quality (Table 1). There is also a tendency to allocate minimal resources towards upgrading existing schools by improving quality of teaching, facilities, and curricula. Greater emphasis is placed on rapid expansion of the number of educational institutions to reach out a large proportion of population. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 417-439 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/417-439.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:417-439 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: javed Ashraf Author-X-Name-First: javed Author-X-Name-Last: Ashraf Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration, Karachi. Author-Name: Birjees Ashraf Author-X-Name-First: Birjees Author-X-Name-Last: Ashraf Author-Workplace-Name: University of West Florida. Title: Ethnicity and Earnings: An Analysis of Data for Karachi Abstract: Pakistan is today, a case study in ethnic strife. Carved out of pre- Independence India in 1947, the country is home to five broad ethnic groups: Punjabis (the dominant segment of the population), Balochis, Pathans and Sindhis. Each has a distinctive culture and language. In spite of broad similarities stemming from a common religion (more than 98 percent of the population is Muslim), several factors combine to create dissension and discord. The fifth ethnic group in Pakistan are the Muhajirs (which literally translates to “Immigrants”) who migrated to Pakistan in large numbers from India in 1947. Most of them settled in Karachi. Pakistan’s largest city, a teeming port city with a current population of around 12 million. Charges of favouritism in the award of jobs abound, and the Muhajirs in particular allege that, not being “sons of the soil,” they are singled out for discriminatory treatment. Given that this is the case, it is surprising that no study has been carried out to ascertain if indeed, earnings differences originate from ethnic differences in Pakistan. This study attempts to examine this issue, and thus settle questions that have led to many a pitched argument. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 441-449 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/441-449.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:441-449 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Qaisar Abbas Author-X-Name-First: Qaisar Author-X-Name-Last: Abbas Author-Workplace-Name: Planning and Development Department, Government of Punjab, Lahore. Title: The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Pakistan and India Abstract: Economic Growth has posed an intellectual challenge ever since the beginning of systematic economic analysis. Adam Smith claimed that growth was related to division of labour, but he did not link them in a clear way. After that Thomas Malthus developed a formal model of a dynamic economic growth process in which each country converge toward stationary per capita income. According to this model, death rates fall and fertility rises when income exceed the equilibrium, and opposite occur when incomes are less than that level. Despite the influence of the Malthusian model in nineteenth century economists, fertility feel rather than rose as income grew during the past 150 years in the west and other parts of the world. The Neoclassical growth model of Solow (1956), which has been for the past thirty years the central framework to account for economic growth, focuses on exogenous technical population factors that determine output-input ratios, responded to the failure of Malthusian model. Neither Malthus’s nor the Neoclassicists approach to growth pays much attention to Human Capital. Yet the evidence is quite strong of close link between investments in human capital and economic growth. Since human capital embodied knowledge and skills, and economic development depends on advances in technological and scientific knowledge, development presumably depends on the accumulation of human capital. Investment in human capital has been a major source of economic growth in advanced countries. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 451-473 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/451-473.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:451-473 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Munir Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Munir Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: M. Ghaffar Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ghulam Mustafa Chaudhry Author-X-Name-First: Ghulam Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Chaudhry Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Some Non-price Explanatory Variables in Fertiliser Demand: The Case of Irrigated Pakistan Abstract: It follows from the experience of World economies that rising and balanced use of fertilisers is the key factor in agricultural productivity [FAO (1995); SFS and STI (1996); Habib-ur-Rehman (1982) and Pinstrup-Anderson (1976)]. In the case of Pakistan the stepped up fertiliser use has been argued to be incritable to realise existing untapped yield potential of major crops [Johnston and Kilby (1975)] and to induce yield increasing technological change in future [John Mellor Associates and Asianics Agro-Dev. International (1993)]. Although proper malnutrition involves the use of primary, secondary and micro-nutrients, Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus and Potassium (K) or NPK is generally considered to be sufficient to harvest normal crop yields [FAO and IFA (1999)]. Given this situation, this paper looks at various factors that determine fertiliser use in Pakistan. Although price of fertiliser is a critical factor in this respect [Schultz (1965) and Johnston and Cownie (1969)], only non-price factors are considered in this paper due to limitations of data. Apart from this introductory section, the paper comprises of three more sections. The following Section 2 explains the data and the empirical model. Section 3 presents the results. Section 4 summarises the main findings along with their policy implications. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 477-486 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/477-486.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:477-486 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Umar Farooq Author-X-Name-First: Umar Author-X-Name-Last: Farooq Author-Workplace-Name: Agricultural Economics Research Unit of PARC at AARI, Faisalabad. Author-Name: Muhammad Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Agricultural Economics Research Unit of PARC at AARI, Faisalabad. Title: Attaining and Maintaining Self-sufficiency in Wheat Production: Institutional Efforts and Farmers’ Limitations Abstract: Becoming an economically prosperous state is the ultimate goal of all economic policies of Pakistan. Being an agricultural country, this calls for more realistic measures towards increasing agricultural production and exports with a simultaneous decrease in imports. The agricultural sector of Pakistan has the primary responsibility of producing enough food for its ever-growing population. Wheat, being the staple food, is the most important crop from food-security perspectives. It is also the largest grain crop in terms of acreage, constituting about 75 percent of total food grain production and is grown under almost every crop rotation. Pakistan imports wheat quite regularly because its domestic production has remained short of demand. Pakistan’s present requirement of wheat is more than 20 million tonnes,1 of which, 18.05 million tonnes was produced within the country during 1998-99 and the rest was imported [Pakistan (1999)]. By the year 2020, annual wheat imports alone are projected to be 15 million tonnes costing US$ 2 billion (at 1990 dollar exchange rate) per annum [PARC (1996)]. Thank God, during rabi 1999-2000, national wheat production exceeded domestic demand. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 487-514 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/487-514.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:487-514 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Azeem Khan Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Azeem Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Agricultural Economic Research Unit, Social Sciences Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad. Author-Name: Tahir Rehman Author-X-Name-First: Tahir Author-X-Name-Last: Rehman Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agriculture, University of Reading, U.K. Title: Application of Multiple Criteria Decision Models for Oilseed Crops in Pakistan’s Punjab Abstract: Pakistan is deficient in major food products. Self-sufficiency in food has virtually always been a major priority, because imports of wheat, edible oil, sugar, pulses and milk products put a massive burden on the balance of payments for the country. The increase in the production of oilseed has been a priority goal of the agricultural development policy in Pakistan. The oilseed crops have been validated as alternative crops on several target locations of different agro-ecological zones [PARC (1990)]; but the success of this validation work in terms of their dissemination is very limited. The possibility of including these crops in well established systems needed to be well conceived. The selection of farming systems, which have the potential to adopt such crops, is a prerequisite to investigate the problems and prospects of oilseed crops. The emphasis of the study is, therefore, on the identification of typical farm situations where the oilseed crops can be evaluated for their potential inclusion in the cropping plans. A real decision-making environment in agriculture involves several objectives along with their explicit targets. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 515-532 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/515-532.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:515-532 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anjum Aqeel Author-X-Name-First: Anjum Author-X-Name-Last: Aqeel Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), University of Karachi and Professor of Finance and Economics at Institute of Business Administration (IBA). Author-Name: Mohammed Nishat Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed Author-X-Name-Last: Nishat Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC), University of Karachi and Professor of Finance and Economics at Institute of Business Administration (IBA). Title: The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: Like most developing countries a steady budget deficit in Pakistan is the primary cause of all major ills of the economy. It has varied between 5.4 to 8.7 percent during last two decades. On the other hand the current account deficit varied between 2.7 to 7.2 percent during the same period. The variations in fiscal policy can lead to predictable developments in an open economy’s performance on current account, remains a controversial issue. An important aspect of this issue concerns what is termed as twin deficit analysis, according to which fiscal deficits and current account balances are very closely related so that reductions in the former are both necessary and sufficient to obtain improved performance in the later. Theoretical work on the relationship that exist between variations in fiscal policy and the current account balance has been based upon two types of models. These models are constructed from postulated behavioural relationships that purport to describe how the economy works in aggregate without explaining the behaviour of agents who make up the economy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 535-550 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/535-550.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:535-550 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam Chaudhary Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Sabahat Anwar Author-X-Name-First: Sabahat Author-X-Name-Last: Anwar Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Foreign Debt, Dependency, and Economic Growth in South Asia Abstract: Many developing countries are following a policy to attract foreign capital through loans and other means to enhance investment. The inflow of these resources is seen as an addition to investment for accelerating economic growth. However, there are only a few success stories where such resources have made any significant contribution to improve the economic conditions of recipient country. Pakistan and other South Asian countries have received significant amount of foreign loans2 but its role is critical [Chaudhary and Ali (1993, 1996)]. In spite of increasing foreign aid, South Asia has emerged one of the poorest and illiterate regions of the world, having more than 500 million poor living below poverty line and about 46 percent of the world’s illiterate live in the South Asia [UNDP/MHHDC*(1997)]. This is the region, which has 22 percent of the world’s population, while having only 3 percent of the world’s income. It also appears one of the most indebted regions of the world [Anwar (1995)]. In spite of a significant inflow of foreign aid, the economic conditions remained poor in this region. Such a situation calls for an in depth analysis of the contribution of foreign aid. Therefore, this paper is focused to analyse the role and implications of international debt in South Asia. Besides, South Asia’s dependency upon foreign debt is also analysed. In addition, tendency of resources outflow from South Asia to other countries, in terms of debt services, is also identified. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 551-570 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/551-570.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:551-570 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Akbar Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Akbar Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi. Author-Name: Sabahat Zareen F. Naqvi Author-X-Name-First: Zareen Author-X-Name-Last: F. Naqvi Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank, Islamabad. Title: Export Diversification and the Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Pakistan Abstract: In the present paper we have tried to examine Pakistan’s experience with exports and growth by constructing several measures of diversification and structural change in Pakistan’s exports from a dis-aggregated data over a period of 27 years (1972-73 to 1997-98). Then using these measures we have tested a number of relationships among the structure of exports, export growth, aggregate growth, and world growth. By looking at the evolution and structural change of exports by sectors over the long run, we find a number of interesting results. First, the degree of export diversification increased sharply from 1979 and continued till 1985. After 1985, and with the return of the democracy in the country. There was a marked reduction in the export diversification and it went back to pre-1979 level. Secondly, a crude association of ‘traditionality’ with primary products and ‘non-traditionality’ with manufactured exports fails to represent Pakistan’s experience. As Pakistan emerged from an import substitution period into a period of structural change and free trade, its true comparative advantage was more visibly expressed, thus some manufactured exports declined while some primary products grew. Third, the shortrun dynamics of diversification and structural change show a marked pattern. Most change in the composition of exports has taken place during periods of boom in the domestic economy but when the world economy was experiencing a relatively recessionary period. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 573-589 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/573-589.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:573-589 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Qazi Masood Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Qazi Masood Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi. Author-Name: Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Sabihuddin Butt Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi. Author-Name: Shaista Alam Author-X-Name-First: Shaista Author-X-Name-Last: Alam Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi. Title: Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Causality: The Case of Asian Countries Abstract: The issue of how developing countries can accelerate their economic growth is of crucial importance. The two primary alternative routes to development are inward-oriented growth strategies, which emphasises import-substitution industrialisation (ISI); and outward-oriented policies, which emphasises the economic benefits of participation in the world economy, that is, export-led growth (ELG). The late 1960s and 1970s witnessed a disillusionment with ISI in many developing countries, leading to a reduction in protectionist measures. The 1980s witnessed further intensification of liberalisation measures as many countries retreated from socialism, regulation and planning. The dis-advantages of ISI, the potential strength of ELG policies and the conditions necessary for successful transition from an inwardoriented regimes to an outward oriented have been extensively researched1 and beyond the scope of the present study. Moreover many of the rapidly growing newly industrialising countries (NICs) lend support to the idea that export promotion can be an effective development strategy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 591-608 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/591-608.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:591-608 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Attiya Y. Javed Author-X-Name-First: Attiya Author-X-Name-Last: Y. Javed Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Haseeb Ahmad Bhatti Author-X-Name-First: Haseeb Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Bhatti Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: How to Live in a Textile Quota-free World Abstract: Its going to be an open arena, only fittest will survive, instead of governments, markets will determine whom to favour or not. There will be no textile quotas in the year 2005. The world has changed and it is going to change increasingly. It differs from the colonial patterns of trade and co-operation when only United Kingdom was the major player in the international trading arena. Now there are many leading trading nations in the world. In post World Trade Organisation era that is after January 1, 1995 at least on paper every country is equal partner in the global trading system. On ground there are big and small players in this equal paper partnership. United States continues to be the leading exporter and importer in the world with a share of 12.4 percent of total world exports and 18.0 percent of total world imports. The East Asian economies first tier, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan have climbed up on the Product Cycle ladder shifting from low value products to high value added exports like hi-tech electronics, the second tier of NIE’s Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines have diverse exporting patterns. Excluding Malaysia, others are exporters of textiles and clothing with many other products. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 609-628 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/609-628.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:609-628 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Ramzan Akhtar Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Ramzan Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar Author-Workplace-Name: Centre, International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad. Title: Poverty Alleviation on a Sustainable Basis in the Islamic Framework Abstract: Allah (SWT) is the sole creator of this vast universe and whatever it contains. He created man as a master piece of His creation and elevated him to be His vicegerent on earth. He made all physical systems and other creations to cater human needs from the time immoral. And those holding political power in Muslim countries under Islamic teachings are required to make necessary arrangements for the satisfaction of his material needs through efficient utilisation of resources and equitable distribution of goods and services and also to fully protect him from all kinds of fear besides the fear of starvation. There is ample evidence in Quran, Sunnah, and practice of Caliphs to provide food as well as social security to each and every individual in an Islamic economy. Pointing to this fact, an Ayah of Quran enjoying upon Quraish to worship Allah because He has protected them both from starvation and fear by granting them food and peace. Similarly a Hadith says that a society where a Muslim has to starve is forsaken by Allah. The first four Caliphs were fully conscious of their obligation towards meeting the needs of poor. Hazrat Umar (RA) declared, “if a camel dies at the bank of Euphrates, I am afraid Allah would make me accountable for it”. The overwhelming stress on satisfaction of basic needs and social security both of current and future generations leaves no justification for the prevalence of widespread poverty in Islamic framework. As a matter of fact, Islam and absolute poverty cannot persist together. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 631-647 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/631-647.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:631-647 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nuzhat Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Nuzhat Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences, International Islamic University, Islamabad. Title: The Concept of Land Ownership in Islam and Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan Abstract: Land ownership—in its ethico-legal and historical manifestations, reflects the importance of being a politico-economic institution. In the process of its development, it includes various heterogeneous elements of different systems of ownership. With the growth of the Ummah, the principles of laws of ownership represent and embody the relations, rights and duties to form the general law of obligations at the state as well as individual level. This is the case of economic and legal theory, regarding the ownership of land with implicative infrastructure to build social welfare institutions of Islam. It is generally and basically have been ordained that according to the teachings of Islam, Real ownership belongs to Allah Almighty. Man being the vicegerent holds property in trust for which he is accountable to him in accordance with the clearly laid down economic philosophy of Islam. Ownership of man is a concept alien to Islam as it belongs to Allah Almighty only. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 649-662 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/649-662.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:649-662 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Aslam Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam Author-Workplace-Name: Bahawalpur Division, Bahawalpur. Author-Name: Toseef Azid Author-X-Name-First: Toseef Author-X-Name-Last: Azid Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Author-Name: Shahnawaz Malik Author-X-Name-First: Shahnawaz Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Title: Attitude towards Interest-free Financing among Small Traders and Farmers in Multan Abstract: It is frequently asked whether the modern economy can function without interest. This question has acquired some urgency in wake of the recent ruling of Supreme Court banning interest in Pakistan. In this respect every expert has his own opinion. Some pronounced that great harm will result from the banning of interest. Others have the opinion that such pronouncement is based on lack of understanding of the modern economic system, as well as the nature of the Islamic prohibition of interest. However, the banning of the rate of interest has affect on the economic activity, i. e. especially on the small traders and farmers. It is commonly argued that this change in capital market has two important effects on the economy. It increased the capital supply while price reduces, thus improving efficiency. And it makes also possible to produce more with relatively less cost, thus has positive effect on the growth of the economy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 663-672 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/663-672.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:663-672 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Naushin Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Naushin Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Durr-E-Nayab Author-X-Name-First: Durr-E- Author-X-Name-Last: Nayab Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: An Analysis of Reproductive Health Issues in Pakistan Abstract: Population programmes in many developing countries have emphasised on family planning services driven largely by numbers and demographic targets. With the advent of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994, it has been recognised to move beyond a narrow focus on family planning to a more comprehensive concern of reproductive health oriented towards meeting the needs of individuals and families. This advocated shift in population and development strategy, especially in health emphasises that services be offered to women, men and adolescents with a special focus on fulfilling women’s health needs, safeguarding their reproductive rights and involving men as equal partners in meeting the goal of responsible parenthood [United Nations (1995)]. In response to ICPD’s mandate, Pakistan’s population programme has increasingly been focussed on various aspects of reproductive health and is in the process of broadening the scope of services for a transition to reproductive health without losing focus on achieving fertility reduction goal. In this regard, the government has adopted a comprehensive population and development policy incorporating an array of reproductive health services and has integrated population and health departments and their activities in dealing with RH problems. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 675-693 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/675-693.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:675-693 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aliya H. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Aliya Author-X-Name-Last: H. Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Lubna Shehnaz Author-X-Name-First: Lubna Author-X-Name-Last: Shehnaz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Determinants of Internal Migration in Pakistan: Evidence from the Labour Force Survey, 1996-97 Abstract: The process of migration has diverse economic, social and environmental implications for the places of origin and destination. In the context of balanced regional growth and sustainable regional development it is important to study how internal migration affects the patterns of population distribution within a country. The spatial distribution of population is influenced by the characteristics of the sending and receiving areas in terms of push and pull factors resulting in rural-urban, urban-urban, rural-rural and urban-rural migration flows. As economies transform from being predominantly rural to being predominantly urban societies, the process of urbanisation assumes a rapid pace. Individuals migrate from rural to urban areas as a rational human capital investment decision to reap economic rewards in the form of better economic opportunities and benefits. The consequences of rapid urbanisation are multi faceted and require timely responses by development planners and policy-makers to deal with pressures created on the infrastructure of large urban centres by the influx of migrants. However, in some developing as well as developed countries, lately, there have been signs of a change in the trend of the population distribution away from concentration in a few large cities towards a more widespread distribution in medium-sized urban centres. The other dimension of this rural-urban migrant outflow manifests itself in the changing labour market scenario in the rural economy which loses the more productive members of its labour force to the urban economy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 695-712 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/695-712.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:695-712 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Najamul Saqib Khan Author-X-Name-First: Najamul Author-X-Name-Last: Saqib Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Former Ambassador of Pakistan. Title: Non-economic Factors in Development Abstract: Economic development in knowledgeable circles has a missing dimension— the non-economic, which is not quantifiable. Development, a leading sector in national transformation, is rooted in nonmaterial factors and requires a positive feedback between culture, economy, and polity. I would invite attention to an insightful comment from a practising professional economist: ‘The need for economic growth in a developing country has few if any economic springs. It arises from a desire to assume full status by taking part in an industrial Civilisation, participation in which alone enables a nation or individual to compel others to treat it as an equal. Inability to take part in it makes a nation militarily powerless against neighbours, administratively unable to control its own citizens, and culturally incapable of speaking the international language’. The functioning of a developmental state has to be viewed in the context of regional and international geopolitical environments. First, in the case of Pakistan, the troubled relationship with India, a big country assailed by the anxieties and complexes of a small and beleaguered nation aspiring to a super-power status with hegemonic goals, has cast a lengthening shadow across its path of development. Second, our achievement of political independence coincided with the onset and intensity of the cold war. In the post-independence period, the stream of national freedom merged with the tidal waves of the cold war and became visibly polluted. A bipolar world, where the contending superpowers were vying with each other to win the allegiance and support of the fledgling states, virtually sucked the latter into the geopolitical game as it was being played on the global stage and deflected their attention from tackling developmental issues on the home front with a sense of urgency. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 715-725 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/715-725.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:715-725 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eatzaz Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Eatzaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Amber Naz Author-X-Name-First: Amber Author-X-Name-Last: Naz Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: An Empirical Analysis of Convergence Hypothesis Abstract: A useful contribution of wide ranging debate in the growth literature is that it has put forward a number of testable hypotheses. One of such hypotheses is known as the convergence hypothesis whereby it is postulated that in the long run developing countries would catch-up with the developed countries in terms of per capita income. Although the convergence hypothesis has gained researchers’ interest in recent times, the basic proposition was laid down in the neo-classical growth model of Solow (1956) and Swan (1956). Traditionally Solow-Swan model has been regarded as a theoretically consistent answer to Harrods’s (1939) twin problems of discrepancy between the warranted and natural rates of growth and instability in the growth process. Although Solow- Swan model is designed to study growth process within a single country, the concept of conditional convergence is far from being alien to the model; it in fact forms the core of argument in the attack on Harrod-Domar model [Harrod (1939) and Domar (1946)]. The model predicts that under perfect competition and in the absence of market distortions, an economy converges to equilibrium capital-labour ratio to yield steady state growth rate that is equal to the natural growth rate and is dynamically stable. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 729-740 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/729-740.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:729-740 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abid A. Burki Author-X-Name-First: Abid Author-X-Name-Last: A. Burki Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Shirin Aslam Author-X-Name-First: Shirin Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Telecommunication Authority, Islamabad. Title: The Role of Digital Technology and Regulations in the Diffusion of Mobile Phones in Asia Abstract: More and more people are using mobile (cellular) phones and the world is increasingly becoming unwired due to diffusion of this technology. The cellular technology is present in most Asian countries since 1980s. However, its diffusion process in these countries has largely been affected by technological developments, i.e., transition from analogue to digital, and regulations. The nature of regulations relate to spectrum licensing and the number of competitors allowed by respective governments. These regulatory decisions may explain the current structure of mobile phone industry in most of these countries. The popularity of cellular communication lies in its appealing advantage as compared with the fixed networks. The most important feature of a cellular phone is its portability in that the call is made to a person and not to a place. In developed countries, the features available on mobile handsets (such as caller line identification, voice mail, call forwarding, call waiting and the facility of receiving and transmitting short text messages) are available free of charge. However, these cell phone facilities are very costly in developing countries as compared with their fixed networks. The regulatory licensing structure prevailing in these countries partly explains this price differential. In effect there has been wide diversity in the speed of introduction of mobile phones and their diffusion across developing countries, which has not been explored. Gruber and Verboven (1998) has recently examined diffusion of cell phones in the European Union. However, this is a neglected area of research in developing countries. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 741-750 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/741-750.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:741-750 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zulfiqar Bashir Author-X-Name-First: Zulfiqar Author-X-Name-Last: Bashir Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. Title: The Role of Agricultural Growth in South Asian Countries and the Affordability of Food: An Inter-country Analysis Abstract: Agriculture is the mainstay of the most developing countries, which supplies food and employment to the majority of the population. Because of the dominance of the agricultural sector, a sufficient supply of domestic food is indispensable to support stable socio-economic and political systems in these countries. To attain a sustained growth of agricultural productivity, sufficient investment in the agricultural sector is crucial, particularly in the initial stages of economic development. This increases agricultural production and as a result, there is a shift in (human) resources from the agricultural sector to the industrial and services sectors. According to Duranton (1998), in order to transform from agricultural sector to industrial sector a significant increase in the agricultural sector productivity is necessary. On the demand-side, the growth in agricultural production increases agricultural income which leads to increase in the demand for industrial products; whereas on the supplyside, the increase in the agricultural productivity shifts human resources from the agricultural to the industrial sector [Jorgenson (1967)]. Economists have further explained these interdependences and linkages between agricultural and industrial sectors. According to Kaldor’s (1978) two-sector model, agricultural and industrial sectors supply inputs to each other and provide market for their outputs but differ in a number of ways. The agricultural sector has disguised unemployment and produces consumer goods for competitive markets, while industrial sector produces investment goods which are sold in imperfectly competitive markets at mark-up prices. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 751-767 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/751-767.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:751-767 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid Mustafa Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Mustafa Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author-Name: Zulfiqar Ahmad Gill Author-X-Name-First: Zulfiqar Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Gill Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author-Name: Toseef Azid Author-X-Name-First: Toseef Author-X-Name-Last: Azid Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Title: NGOs, Micro-finance and Poverty Alleviation: Experience of the Rural Poor in Pakistan Abstract: Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) continue to be the global ‘flavour of the month’ in international development. They are regarded as “outside” actors perceived to work in the interests of the poor, and in the absence of the state, many NGOs have taken on vital role in the provision of basic services to the poor. The institutional and political environment is attuned to privatisation in whatever form it takes. NGOs are another expression of this trend, but in the case of NGOs no real disillusionment phase has yet set in. But still NGOs remain the favoured vehicle for grass-roots involvement and community development in many countries. The present paper seeks to delineate the role of NGOs in micro finance and study their aggregate impact on poverty reduction in rural Pakistan as a result of micro finance efforts. The paper is organised in four sections. Section I commences with the concepts, promises and limitations of NGOs as a vehicle of micro finance. Section II summarises the record of performance of NGOs in Pakistan. In particular, the role, achievements and set-backs of two noted NGOs in Pakistan, Agha Khan Rural Support Programme (AKRSP) and National Rural Support Programme (NRSP). Which are studied by examining aggregate impact of these NGOs on poverty reduction as result of their micro finance efforts. Section III examines the poverty profile and presents summary of the role of NGOs in the context of poverty lending and, finally Section IV concludes the analysis and proposes some policy recommendations. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 771-792 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/771-792.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:771-792 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Toseef Azid Author-X-Name-First: Toseef Author-X-Name-Last: Azid Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Author-Name: Shahnawaz Malik Author-X-Name-First: Shahnawaz Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan. Title: Impact of Village-specific, Household-specific, and Technological Variables on Poverty in Punjab Abstract: Rural poverty remains a serious problem in Pakistan, with more than 30 percent of rural population living in absolute poverty. In rural Pakistan there is a big gap between rich and the poor. While the stake of competition for position and status concerns the rich, the struggle for survival in the midst of increasing crises embarrasses the poor. The rural poor—the pauperised class—are week and powerless with inadequate command over resources relative to needs. In fact, the polarisation process which is making the rich richer and poor poorer is a consequence of poverty. Neither the poor nor the outside well wishers have the power to break the vicious deprivation trap. It is consensus that rural social structure is responsible for rural underdevelopment. A number of attempts can be seen in the literature having discussed the different dimensions of the above phenomenon related to developing economies in general and to Pakistan in particular, The present study is the continuity of the above efforts. However, this study discusses the enigma of poverty based on a village study. Within above setting, a village survey has been conducted in the Southern Punjab. The study analyses the determinants of rural poverty in the above village and its relation with productive assets, tools and instruments, gender, rural employment, household size, earner size, education level, etc. The analysis explicitly takes into account such attributes as the village specific, household specific and technological variables. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 793-806 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/793-806.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:793-806 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mehboob Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Mehboob Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. Title: Estimation of Distribution of Income in Pakistan, Using Micro Data Abstract: Income distribution entered the post war discussion of economic development fairly late. Until the 1960s much of the focus was on industrialisation and the need for capital accumulation. Pakistan was no exception as in the early 60s economic expansion became the main target and means to political identity. Rapid population growth associated with steep decline in mortality demanded acceleration of production to keep pace. Overall aggregate expansion was much faster than before but without benefit for the poor. In that context emerged a new professional interest in income distribution. Haq’s (1964) study was one of the oldest studies conducted to measure inequality in personal income distribution in the high income brackets in the urban areas of Pakistan. The main objective of the author was to present the income distribution pattern in terms of the relative shares of different income groups as well as in terms of Pareto coefficients and concentration ratio during the period 1948-49 to 1957-58 for which published tax data was available. While recognising the limitations of the data used, the author went on to calculate various measures of income inequality including Pareto coefficient and Lorenz curve. The author also made comparison of Pakistan’s income distribution with U.S.A. and U.K. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 807-824 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/807-824.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:807-824 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zareen Fatima Naqvi Author-X-Name-First: Zareen Author-X-Name-Last: Fatima Naqvi Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank, Islamabad. Author-Name: Mohammad Akbar Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Akbar Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title: How Do the Poor Respond to Rising Prices? Abstract: Recent estimates show that after falling in the 1980s, poverty has made a comeback in Pakistan during the 1990s. The Government of Pakistan (GOP) estimate show an increase in caloric poverty headcount from 17 percent in 1987-88 to 33 percent in 1998-99 and also rising income inequality during the 1990s.1 In contrast preliminary estimates by the World Bank show that poverty may not have risen as rapidly during the 1990s and may even have stagnated.2 Slow down in economic growth, rising open unemployment, rising food and non-food prices, reduction in the fiscal space for pro-poor public programmes, poor governance hampering delivery of social services to the poor; are factors that have been attributed to the growing poverty and vulnerability of households in recent years. The Government has recently taken some important initiatives to deal with rising poverty. These include the Rs 21 billion Integrated Rural Urban Development public works programme, establishment of the Khushali Bank (Micro-Finance Bank) and the Food Support Programme for poor households with income less than Rs 2000/ PM. These programmes are in addition to the existing public social safety net programmes such as Zakat/Ushr and Pakistan Baitul Maal, and the Social Action Programme. The ongoing work on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) is a laudable effort by the government to take poverty issues seriously and to come up with a poverty reduction strategy in a consultative and participatory manner. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 827-842 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/827-842.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:827-842 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fazal Husain Author-X-Name-First: Fazal Author-X-Name-Last: Husain Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Kalbe Abbas Author-X-Name-First: Kalbe Author-X-Name-Last: Abbas Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Income, Money, and Prices in Pakistan: Trends and Interrelationship Abstract: Income, Money, and Prices are important macroeconomic variables which play crucial roles in an economy. There has been a long debate in economics regarding their roles. For example, the Monetarists claim that money plays an active role and leads to changes in income and prices. In other words, changes in income and prices in an economy are mainly caused by the changes in money stocks. The Keynesians, on the other hand, argue that money does not play an active role in changing income and prices. In fact, changes in income cause changes in money stocks via demand for money. Similarly, changes in prices are mainly caused by structural factors. Although there is disagreement among economist on the roles of income, money, and prices as well as their interrelationship, these variables are considered important and large amount of literature in economics deals with these variables. The purpose of this paper is to look at the trends of these variables in Pakistan’s economy over fifty years. We also look at the components of these variables as well as their interrelationship. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 843-855 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/843-855.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:843-855 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum Author-X-Name-First: Abdul Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation Abstract: Monetary economics provides one of the important tools, that is monetary policy, to deal with the macroeconomic problems of the economy. It is concerned with the supply of money and the demand for money. It is often assumed that the money supply is exogenously determined by the authorities and the demand for real money is determined by the market. The demand for money is of crucial importance in the conduct of monetary policy. It helps to understand macroeconomic activities and to prescribe appropriate policy instruments to deal with macroeconomic problems. The effectiveness of the monetary policy, however, depends on the shape and stability of the estimated demand for money function. Empirical studies of the money demand in Pakistan concentrated on the estimation of aggregate money demand function by using conventional regression analysis. The main criticism against the aggregate models of the money demand is that these models lumped two different sectors of the economy, such as the household sector and the business sector. Further, it is argued that these two sectors have diversified behaviour. Their money demand behaviour is subject to different requirements. Sectoral money demand behaviour is thoroughly investigated in developed counties but a very thin literature on the estimation of money demand function by the business sector in developing countries is available, for example, Unger and Zilberfarb (1980) and Cameron and Qayyum (1994). Econometric methodology of these studies is mainly concerned with the estimation of two types of money demand functions such as long-run static and shortrun partial adjustment mechanism. However, the researchers employing the technique of cointegration in the empirical testing of money demand function have cast serious doubt on the results of these studies. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 857-873 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/857-873.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:857-873 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Soofia Mumtaz Author-X-Name-First: Soofia Author-X-Name-Last: Mumtaz Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Targeting Women in Micro-finance Schemes: Objectives and Outcomes Abstract: The ‘success’ of a development project, it is generally accepted, is related to the feasibility of its objectives within the socioeconomic conditions of the context in which the programme is to be implemented. What remains less categorical however, is the correspondence between the objectives of the programme design, and the aims of those who seek to implement it. So long as these goals are shared, the modifications in the design, necessitated by ground realities can be tackled accordingly, and the efficacy of the intervention can be gauged with reference to the convergent thrust. Non-conformity between the two, on the other hand, can result in an under utilisation of the potential that may exist for the translation of defined objectives into practical measures, for the pursuit of desired outcomes. In this paper we examine the gender component of the Urban Poverty Alleviation Project (UPAP) initiated by the National Rural Support Programme (NRSP) in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The examination is based on the preliminary findings of an anthropological study entitled Credit, Gender, and Household Welfare, conducted at PIDE under the supervision of the author, from September- November, 2000.1 UPAP gives loans to self-constituted groups of women who would be considered uncreditworthy by normal banking standards. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 877-890 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/877-890.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:877-890 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeba A. Sathar Author-X-Name-First: Zeba Author-X-Name-Last: A. Sathar Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, and Population Council in Islamabad. Author-Name: Shahnaz Kazi Author-X-Name-First: Shahnaz Author-X-Name-Last: Kazi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, and World Bank in Islamabad. Title: Pakistani Couples: Different Productive and Reproductive Realities? Abstract: Gender systems depict several dimensions of the relations between men and women across different social settings. Mason (1995) has described the complexity of gender systems that encompass concepts such as women’s standing, empowerment, the sexual division of spheres and the rather widely used concept of women’s status. Gender systems in Pakistan are posited to be unequal in favour of men, because of strong patriarchal systems, which ordain that men and older persons make all major decisions. As a result, women’s status is argued to be low in most dimensions poor educational attainment, few economic opportunities apart from family based employment which is largely unpaid and the virtual seclusion of women from the public spheres of life especially those involving financial transactions. Spheres of life are quite separate with men having the primary responsibility of breadwinning and women to be primarily responsible for within household routine chores such as those involving cleaning, cooking, animal care and child care. Men control the major part of decision making and presumably act in their own interest which may not necessarily coincide with women [Folbre (1988)]. Especially in terms of productive decisions but also in reproductive decisions, women necessarily play a subsidiary role which relegates them to a lower position in terms of decision making and control of resources [Dwyer and Bruce (1988)]. This paper looks more closely at the two spheres of production and reproduction in rural Pakistan. It uses responses from matched husbands and wives to test whether in fact there is a difference between spouses in their perceptions, goals/orientation about production and reproduction. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 891-912 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/891-912.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:891-912 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rehana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rehana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Shahnaz Hamid Author-X-Name-First: Shahnaz Author-X-Name-Last: Hamid Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rizwana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rizwana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Analysis of Non-conventional Indicators of Gender Relations: Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: Since 1980 many developing countries have adopted two major macroeconomic strategies: Stabilisation and Structural Adjustment. A generally held view regarding the impact of these macroeconomic strategies is that it led to unemployment, low investment, decline in real wages, capital flight, rise in inequality and poverty. All these resulted in deterioration in living conditions of the poor in the short run.1 In some cases, the long run benefits, if any, of these programmes are sacrificed due to the high social costs in the short run. A number of studies, examining the impact of the observed macroeconomic impact of the Structural Adjustment Policies (StAP), report mixed impact on women. For example, on the one hand, Khan (1999) found an increasing trend in feminisation of agricultural labour2, and feminisation of poverty3 while Brown (1992), on the other hand, reports employment as a key factor in determining women’s empowerment and argues that some aspects of economic reforms hold for improvement in the long-run. The argument is based on the assumption that greater economic role for women offers protection and that employment itself mitigates against domestic violence. However, the overall effect of structural adjustment is difficult to measure as it varies across countries, across sectors, and across individuals within a household. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 913-929 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/913-929.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:913-929 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Javed Anwar Author-X-Name-First: Javed Author-X-Name-Last: Anwar Author-Workplace-Name: Mohammad Ali Jinnah University, Islamabad. Author-Name: M. Tariq Javed Author-X-Name-First: M. Tariq Author-X-Name-Last: Javed Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Capital Markets and Foreign Ownership Restrictions: An Empirical Analysis of Emerging Stock Markets Abstract: In the 1990s, the hot issue in international finance was the growing interest of portfolio managers in the emerging stock markets. The interest in the emerging markets gained rapid attention, which is evident from the global trends, towards the opening up of economies and financial markets, free capital flow and the privatisation of financial institutions. Earlier the emerging markets were isolated due to several factors that had posed serious problems for international investors. These markets lacked the depth, regulatory framework, and structural safeguards that had characterised the equity markets in the developed world. Capital markets are called integrated, if assets with perfectly correlated rates of returns have the same price regardless of the location in which they are traded. Alternatively, capital market are called segmented, if financial assets traded in different markets “with identical risk characteristics” have different returns due to different investment restrictions.1 Segmentation may be due to individuals’ attitudes, government restrictions over capital movements or irrationality. In the past twenty-five years, modern finance theory has proved to be a major development in finance, which comprises of portfolio theory, capital market theory and efficient market theory. These modern developments can be traced back to the work of Markowitz (1959); Sharpe (1964); Solnik (1974) etc., which assumes that security prices fully reflect all publicly available information. Due to this information, potential investors can gain benefits through international diversification. The major attraction of forming international portfolios lies in the potential for risk reduction through diversification of unsystematic risk. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 933-950 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/933-950.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:933-950 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammed Nishat Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed Author-X-Name-Last: Nishat Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration, Karachi, and at the Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi. Title: The Systematic Risk and Leverage Effect in the Corporate Sector of Pakistan Abstract: Poor corporate financing policies, non-competitive role of institutional development, a tendency towards the underpricing of initial offering resulted in high levered stocks in Karachi stock market (KSE). The KSE is termed as high risk high return emerging market where investors seek high risk premium Nishat (1999). The leverage is the most important factor which determines the firms risk premium [Zimmer (1990)]. Hamada (1969) and Bowman (1979) have demonstrated the theoretical relationship between leverage and systematic risk. Systematic risk of the leverage firm is equal to the without leverage systematic risk of the firm times one plus the leverage ratio (debt equity). Bowman (1979) established that systematic risk is directly related to leverage and the accounting beta (covariability of a firms’ accounting earnings with the accounting earnings of the market portfolio). One explanation of time-varying stock volatility is that leverage changes as the relative price of stocks and bonds change. Schwert (1989) demonstrated how a change in the leverage of the firm causes a change in the volatility of stock returns. Haugen and Wichern (1975) analysed the relationship between leverage and relative stability of stock value based on actuarial science1 and found that the duration of the debt is an important attribute in assessing the effect of leverage on stock volatility. If the leverage is persistent, or changing over time due to the issuance of additional debt, or if the firms are trying to return back the debt, this will change the risk of holding common stock. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 951-962 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/951-962.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:951-962 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syed Furqan Haider Shamsi Author-X-Name-First: Syed Furqan Author-X-Name-Last: Haider Shamsi Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name: Nighat Bilgrami-Jaffery Author-X-Name-First: Nighat Author-X-Name-Last: Bilgrami-Jaffery Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title: Emerging Capital Markets Development: A Case Study of Pakistani Equity Markets Abstract: The purpose of the study is to trace and review the growth and development of the Pakistani Equity Market. The capital markets in Pakistan has been undergoing a major restructuring programme. Number of measures have been taken to liberalise investment procedures and encourage capital formation through stock exchanges, enlarge size and depth of capital markets. We are witnessing globally a remarkable pace of change from a social and economic perspective. Capital markets being driven by the floods of competition and technology are experiencing so many new challenges and changes inducing them to incline more towards complex structures which would not have been considered possible few time back. Capital markets play an important role in the economic development of emerging capital markets. These markets are an important and efficient conduit to channel and mobilise funds to enterprises, and provide an effective source of investment in the economies they serve. Well functioning markets ensure that both corporations and investors get or receive fair prices for their securities. Their role for mobilising savings for investment in productive assets is acute which subsequently enhance the country’s long term growth prospects. Therefore we can deduce here that their role is like a major catalyst for transformation of the country’s economy into a more efficient and competitive emporium within the global workroom. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 963-978 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/963-978.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:963-978 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aisha Ghaus-Pasha Author-X-Name-First: Aisha Author-X-Name-Last: Ghaus-Pasha Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz Author-X-Name-Last: A. Pasha Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Devolution and Fiscal Decentralisation Abstract: Fiscal decentralisation represents the transfer of resources from higher to lower levels of government usually accompanied by an enhancement in responsibilities and functions of sub- national governments and greater autonomy in their budget making and financial decisions. The rising demand generally for decentralisation in developing countries in recent years is a consequence of the broader processes of globalisation, liberalisation and deregulation. Political imperatives for decentralisation have been created by the urge for more effective democratisation and the need to bring governments closer to the people for greater accountability and better articulation of their needs and preferences. In a number of countries, including Pakistan, the failure of central or state/provincial governments to adequately capture local preferences and provide basic services have strengthened the case for use of local governments as delivery agents, such that the production and distribution of services is carried down to the lowest unit of government capable of capturing the associated costs and benefits. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 981-1011 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/981-1011.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:981-1011 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar H. Ismail Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Author-X-Name-Last: H. Ismail Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Author-Name: Sehar Rizvi Author-X-Name-First: Sehar Author-X-Name-Last: Rizvi Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Governance, Decentralisation, and Poverty: The Case of Pakistan Abstract: Human development and human rights share a common vision and purpose: to secure the freedom, well being and dignity of humanity. Human development is as essential for human rights as the latter is for the former. Historical evidence suggests that the more civilised societies were those that gave a higher priority to both, for example, the Greek, the Roman and the enlightened years of early Islam. The freedom from want is perhaps the one inalienable right of humanity which stands between dignity and indignity and which must be mitigated against by both state and individual.1 For the first time in history mankind adopted these and other human rights when the Universal Declaration of Human Rights was adopted by the United Nations in 1948. Today all but one of the six core covenants and conventions have been ratified by at least 140 countries and state sponsored anti-poverty programmes were initiated globally, most with the help of civil society [UNDP (2000)]. The lessons from history clearly establish that for improving the social endowment of the poor the state and the individual are key players, money is a necessary requirement, good governance is critical to success and the participation of each component of society as a whole ensures sustainability and continued benefits beyond the initial attempts to mitigate the impact of poverty. In other words decentralisation is a key element to improve the lot of the people, particularly the poor and the disenfranchised. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1013-1030 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1013-1030.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1013-1030 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arshed Hossain Bhatti Author-X-Name-First: Arshed Author-X-Name-Last: Hossain Bhatti Author-Workplace-Name: ActionAid Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Matching Intentions with Divergent Agendas: Interplay of the State, International Donors, and the Civil Voluntary Initiatives in Pakistan Abstract: During the last two decades, there has been proliferation of civil voluntary initiatives in the name of local and international development. The international donors of a large variety have played catalyst role in supporting such initiatives financially to help engage in meaningful interaction with the states in whose jurisdiction they operate. These initiatives have been given many names, most popular being the NGOs (Non-Governmental Organisations). However, in this paper one is referring to this collectivity as civil voluntary initiatives (CVIs). They can be institutions, organisations or behaviours, forms of social activism or participation—formal and informal, organised and or random. There is general perception that these initiatives are “donor driven” and follow a “western agenda”. We also observe that many international donors do not tend to fund and encourage impartially; they leave out faith-based groups from their support net. The latter reportedly receive charity donations from foreign governments in the name of serving religion—Islam, in the case of Pakistan. The states, at times, seem to be receptive to funding of international donors for ‘development’ initiatives aiming service delivery and awareness raising in certain ‘non-controversial’ areas like population planning, HIV-AIDS awareness, etc. However, they do not appear to approve international donors’ funding of advocacy focused rights based initiatives motivating and urging people to articulate their concerns for policy change, reform and promoting democratic assertions. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1031-1053 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1031-1053.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1031-1053 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdul Hakim Author-X-Name-First: Abdul Author-X-Name-Last: Hakim Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Population Studies, Islamabad. Title: Are Status of Women and Contraceptive Prevalence Correlated in Pakistan? Abstract: Pakistan with an estimated population of around 142.5 million in mid 2001 is the seventh most populous country in the world and fourth in Asia and Pacific countries. The historical trends indicate a continuously increasing growth in population (Table 1). The population of the area now constituting Pakistan was 16.6 million in 1901. Since then the population has increased over eight-fold. Annual growth rates have risen from 1 percent in the first three decades of the century to around 2 percent in the next three decades and after peaking at little over 3 percent in the 1960s, has started showing a declining trend. Currently it is estimated that Pakistan’s population is growing at around 2.1 percent, still a very high rate of annual growth in population. Major contributing factor to the fast growth in population of Pakistan has been high fertility which has remained high for a very long period. It is evident that nearly 100 million population has been added to the population of Pakistan since 1961, that is, during the last four decades. Such rapid growth in population has several adverse implications for the socio-economic development of the country which has been offsetting the gains in social and economic development. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1057-1073 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1057-1073.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1057-1073 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zafar Mueen Nasir Author-X-Name-First: Zafar Mueen Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Syed Mubashir Ali Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mubashir Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Labour Market Participation of the Elderly Abstract: Generally ageing of population is defined as the relative increase in the number of elderly. This process is the result of declining fertility and increasing life expectancy of elderly population. In today’s Pakistan, fertility has started declining and life expectancy of elderlies has been increasing and it is expected that in future both these processes will gain momentum, resulting into many fold increase in the population of elderly people [Afzal (1999); Sathar and Casterline (1998)]. These developments are expected to have adverse effects on Pakistan’s economy as support and welfare of elderly people will require additional allocation of resources. That is more so because traditionally welfare and socio-economic needs of elderly people remained the responsibility of their children especially the sons. However, the traditional extended/joint family system is fast breaking down and nuclear type of family set up is becoming more common rendering the elderly people helpless [Ali (2000)]. Moreover, in view of an increase in the incidence of poverty in Pakistan, intra-house resource distribution is also becoming scarce leading to a scenario where only productive members are the chief beneficiaries [Qureshi and Arif, (2001)]. On the other hand in Pakistan, the social sector also remained neglected and little progress has been made in the development of health, education, nutrition, housing and physical infrastructure. Moreover, social security and pension scheme for general public is also almost non-existent. Such a situation warrants development of policies especially for elderly people in general and for all those elderlies who can participate and contribute in the economic activities in particular so that economic well-being of these people is ensured. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1075-1086 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1075-1086.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1075-1086 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G. M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G. M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Hina Nazli Author-X-Name-First: Hina Author-X-Name-Last: Nazli Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Rashida Haq Author-X-Name-First: Rashida Author-X-Name-Last: Haq Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Rural Non-agriculture Employment and Poverty in Pakistan Abstract: There is ample evidence that poverty, which declined rapidly in Pakistan in the 1980s, has returned in the 1990s [Amjad and Kemal (1997); Ali and Tahir (1999); Jafri (1999); Qureshi and Arif (2001)]. Consequently large number of Pakistanis, more than one-third of the total population, live currently far below what can reasonably be regarded as a decent standard of living. Poverty has generally been higher in rural areas than in urban areas. This gap could not be bridged overtime; still the greatest degree of poverty is found in the countryside. To address rural poverty, policy-makers have long been looking to the growth potential of the farm sector of the rural economy. Non-agricultural activities in rural areas have received little attention. This neglect, however, may be socially costly. It has been shown in several recent empirical studies that nonfarm activities occupy an important place in rural economies throughout the developing world [Hazell and Haggblade (1993); Adams and He (1995); Bakht (1996); Sen (1996); Lanjouw (1999)]. They expand quite rapidly in response to agriculture development, and therefore merit special attention in the design of strategies concerning poverty alleviation in rural areas. The rural nonfarm sector in Pakistan, like many in other developing countries, is a heterogeneous sector covering a wide spectrum of activities. The pursuit of this diversification leads one to explore the potentials of the whole range of nonfarm activities. There is a considerable body of literature on poverty in Pakistan. This literature, however, has largely ignored the importance of nonfarm sector in poverty alleviation. Only few recent studies, based on relatively small sample size, have examined linkages between rural nonfarm sector and poverty. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1089-1110 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1089-1110.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1089-1110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Afia Malik Author-X-Name-First: Afia Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ather Maqsood Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Ather Maqsood Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Relationship between Real Wages and Output: Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: Information on wage levels is essential in evaluating the living standards and conditions of work and life of the workers. Since nominal wage fails to explain the purchasing power of employees, real wage is considered as a major indicator of employees purchasing power and can be used as proxy for their level of income. Any fluctuations in the real wage rate have a significant impact on poverty and the distribution of income. When used in relation with other economic variables, for instance employment or output they are valuable indicators in the analysis of business cycles. There has been a long debate regarding the relationship between real wages and the employment (output). Despite the apparent simplicity, the relationship between real wages and output has remained deceptive both theoretically and empirically. Keynes (1936) viewed cyclical movements in employment along a stable labour demand schedule thus indicating counter cyclical real wages. His deduction is in line with sticky wages and sticky expectations, which augments models like Phillips curve. In these models real wages behaved as counter-cyclical as nominal wages are slow to adjust during recession (decrease in aggregate demand and associated slowdown in price growth). Stickiness of wages or expectations shifts the labour supply over the business cycles [Abraham and Haltiwanger (1995)]. Barro (1990) and Christiano and Eichenbaum (1992) have associated these labour supply shifts with intertemporal labour-leisure substitution. This in response to temporary changes in real interest rates (fiscal policy shocks) could yield counter-cyclical real wages. However, Long and Plosser (1983) and Kydland and Prescott (1982) while studying the real business cycle models highlight on the technology shocks which leads to pro-cyclical real wages. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1111-1126 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1111-1126.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1111-1126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Usman Qadir Author-X-Name-First: Usman Author-X-Name-Last: Qadir Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Muhammad Ali Kemal Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Hasan Mohammad Mohsin Author-X-Name-First: Hasan Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Mohsin Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Impact of Trade Reforms on Poverty Abstract: Trade plays a vital role in determining the growth process of any country. Trade liberalisation and openness of the economy are now almost universally accepted as the main ingredients of successful economic growth and welfare of the population. These are believed to be responsible for the exceptional growth of industrialised and newly industrialised countries. Many developing countries, under the auspices of the WTO are taking major steps to liberalise their trade regimes. However, in the short run, the impact of these policy changes is generally perceived to be painful for both the producers and the consumers; and especially so for the latter. A key question here is the impact of trade reforms on poverty, which has persisted in most developing countries despite concerted efforts on many fronts to eradicate this social evil. Like many developing countries, Pakistan has undertaken far-reaching trade reforms aimed at creating an open international trading environment. Pakistan’s dependence on international trade, as measured by the total trade to GDP ratio, has increased significantly from 13.3 percent in 1960-61, to 32.47 percent in 1992-93. As such, it is important to determine if there is a relationship between trade liberalisation and poverty alleviation; do trade reforms lead to reduction in country wide poverty levels or not. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of trade reforms on poverty alleviation in Pakistan. It attempts to answer the question of whether openness of trade has led to a reduction in poverty or not. The study is organised as follows. Sections 2 and 3 provide a review of Pakistan’s trade policies and literature on the estimation of poverty. Data and methodology used to examine the relationship between trade reforms and poverty are discussed in Section 4. Empirical findings of the study are analysed in Section 5 and in Section 6 the main conclusions of the study are presented. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1127-1137 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/11127-1137.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1127-1137 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Irfan Author-X-Name-First: M. Author-X-Name-Last: Irfan Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Poverty in South Asia Abstract: In this paper, an attempt is made to document and analyse the poverty situation in South Asia. Available data on poverty levels and trends are discussed in the first section. Major focus of the paper is to examine the progress made during the decade of 1990s. During this decade, it may be noted that all the countries of the region were implementing some variant of structural adjustment and stabilisation programme. Performance of the national economies discussed briefly in the second section of the paper provides some clues regarding the possible effects of the reforms on poverty reduction. The safety-networks and targeting issues to improve their cost effectiveness are discussed in the final section. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1141-1151 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1141-1151.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1141-1151 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G. M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G. M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Recent Rise in Poverty and Its Implications for Poor Households in Pakistan Abstract: There is sample evidence that poverty which declined rapidly in Pakistan in the 1970s and 1980s has increased in the 1990s.1 This rise in poverty is likely to have adversely affected the ability of poor households to enrol their young children in schools. The cost of schooling even when it is free is usually the most pressing obstacles for poor people to send their children in school. Similarly, health correlates strongly with poverty. This does not mean that poverty is itself a direct cause of diseases, but it lies behind other causes of disease such as in-sanitary living conditions, lack of adequate nutrition, poor access to safe drinking water, and sanitation and bad working conditions [World Bank (1993)]. Because of these factors, the poor are more affected by communicable diseases than are the rich. They have also less access to modern health facilities. This paper examines recent trends in poverty and their impact on primary school enrolment, health status and housing conditions in Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1153-1170 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1153-1170.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1153-1170 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mustafa K. Mujeri Author-X-Name-First: Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: K. Mujeri Author-Workplace-Name: Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Title: Poverty Trends and Growth Performance: Some Issues in Bangladesh Abstract: With a low level of per capita income, nearly one of every two persons in Bangladesh is poor, and one of three lives below the income poverty line of $ 1 a day.1 If those who are deprived of adequate clothing or shelter or other basic needs are counted, the number will be considerably higher. Similarly, if the people who live ‘above’ the poverty line but are vulnerable to risks, crisis and socioecononomic shocks and are in constant danger of income erosion below the poverty threshold are considered, the number will be still larger. The poor in Bangladesh differ in economic, social, physical and other characteristics which reflect various deprivations. Such multidimensionality of the poor’s interlocking deprivations suggests that a strategy of increasing income alone may not be adequate for reducing poverty.2 With multi-dimensional characteristics, poverty requires a multi-strategy solution in Bangladesh. The implications of attacking poverty within a broad framework highlight the interactions that exist between income and non-income deprivations. The reduction in income-poverty helps in alleviating non-income poverty through enhanced capacity of the poor to gain access to basic needs. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1171-1191 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1171-1191.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1171-1191 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Neranjana Gunetilleke Author-X-Name-First: Neranjana Author-X-Name-Last: Gunetilleke Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Policy Studies, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Title: A Note on the Sri Lankan Experience in Poverty Reduction Abstract: ‘Poverty’ is a complex, multifaceted and much investigated subject which has generated an colossal amount of literature. The situation in relation to Sri Lanka is no different—both in relation to the complexity of the subject and the investigation and literature it has generated. Within the international debates, Sri Lanka has been used extensively as a case study as in the early work on the basic needs and growth versus welfare debates, UNICEF’s work on Adjustment with a Human Face and more recently in the World Bank’s Voices of the Poor qualitative study. The domestic research and literature has been as prolific, the most recent group being the background material for the Framework on Poverty Reduction.1 This paper will not attempt to summarise the existing debates and literature or provide a comprehensive overview to poverty and its many facets in Sri Lanka. Instead it will briefly place Sri Lanka in the context of South Asia and look at the policy framework which brought about the present situation and the ongoing and envisaged policy changes. Finally it will highlight a few selected issues which are of growing interest and have received relatively less attention. A selected bibliography is provided at the end. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1193-1204 Volume: 39 Issue: 4 Year: 2000 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2000/Volume4/1193-1204.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:1193-1204