Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zulfiqar Bashir Author-X-Name-First: Zulfiqar Author-X-Name-Last: Bashir Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Macquarie University, Australia. Title: The Impacts of Economic Reforms and Trade Liberalisation on Agricultural Export Performance in Pakistan Abstract: Economic reforms and trade liberalisation policies have been widely adopted in developing countries in recent years. Pakistan is no exception. This paper focuses on the effects of economic reform policies on the agricultural export performance. A number of studies have investigated the effects of trade liberalisation on export growth in developing countries, and have reached inconclusive results. Some studies have identified positive effects of trade liberalisation on export performance [Krueger (1997); Bleaney (1999); and Ahmed (2002)], others confirmed an insignificant or even a negative relationship [Greenaway, et al. (1994); Jenkins (1996) and Greenaway, et al. (2002)]. There are number of reasons for conflicting conclusions including different researchers have used different indicators for liberalisation and different methods to analyse the effect; difference in the extent of liberalisation studies; most studies have analysed scenarios rather than evaluating the effects, and so on. The present study analyses agricultural trade policy of Pakistan and accesses the impact of trade liberalisation on agricultural export performance, especially diversification, competitiveness, and openness. The relative importance of domestic supply related factors such as tariffs, quotas, etc. compared with external demand factors in affecting agricultural export expansion is analysed with respect to (i) relative agricultural export growth, (ii) changes in market shares of (traditional) agricultural exports, and (iii) changes in the export commodity composition. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 941-960 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/941-960.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:941-960 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Azeema Faizunnisa Author-X-Name-First: Azeema Author-X-Name-Last: Faizunnisa Author-Workplace-Name: Population Counciil, Islamabad. Author-Name: Minhaj Ul Haque Author-X-Name-First: Minhaj Ul Author-X-Name-Last: Haque Author-Workplace-Name: Population Counciil, Islamabad. Title: Adolescent Reproductive Health: The Role of Agency and Autonomy Abstract: The world is experiencing the largest cohort of adolescents in its history, and there are about 1 billion youngsters in this age group, most of whom belong to the developing countries. Worldwide, the adolescent age group is gaining prominence for researchers, policy-makers and donors. This issue is more important for Pakistan where about one-third of 150 million Pakistanis are in the age range of 10–24 years [Pakistan Census Organisation (2001)]. In Pakistan, the fertility transition has just begun [Sathar and Casterline (1998)], and we will have the largest cohort of young people in next five years. With a TFR of 4.1 which represents a significant decline in fertility in the past two decades for about two children [Pakistan (2003)], still we have a large population base. Nearly 33 percent of the population is aged 10–24, and ready to enter marriage and childbearing. Adolescents represents as a “bulge” in the population pyramid of Pakistan that will have serious implications at a variety of levels. Literature available on population and demographics, suggests that productive and reproductive actions of younger people will shape the size, health, and prosperity of the world’s future population. Despite rising trend in contraceptive use, rising age at marriage etc. the population will keep on increasing in absolute numbers, just due to the sheer pressure of the population momentum. Also the population moment our adolescent carry will offset the decline in population growth rates. The paper explores the linkages of such reproductive health outcomes as early marriage and contraceptive intention, desegregated by age, gender, socio-economic status, locality and province, and aims to provide essential information on predicting early marriage in Pakistan. Moreover the role of autonomy, agency and mobility will also be analysed to see if there if these factors play any role in determining the most important transition of a young person, that is marriage. It will also highlight the future demand for fertility control by analysing future intentions of Pakistani youth to use family planning. Results of this paper depict the socioeconomic and regional diversity in adolescents reproductive health across Pakistan and can be used to form youth policy and programmes in Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 569-583 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/569-583.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:569-583 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Munir Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Munir Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad. Title: Agricultural Productivity, Efficiency, and Rural Poverty in Irrigated Pakistan: A Stochastic Production FrontiermAnalysis Abstract: The main objective of this study is to estimate the input elasticities of production for poor and non-poor farms. The study estimates the stochastic frontier production function. The results show that the elasticities of production differ for poor and non-poor farms. The production elasticity of land is substantially higher on rich farms as compared to the farms belonging to poor farmers. This implies higher returns on investment on land by the rich farmers. The salinity/sodicity problem and the tail-end location of the plot adversely affect farm productivity and efficiency, particularly at the poor farms. Moreover, the average cost of the existence of technical inefficiencies is about 43 percent in terms of loss in output, with wide variations across farms ranging from 17 percent to 62 percent. The study further concludes that the least efficient group is not only operating far below the frontier but it also operates at the lower portion of the production frontier. Consequently, increasing access to the inputs would likely raise productivity and reduce poverty. The results imply that the land distribution using the notion of land reforms in favour of poor/small farmers in the presence of existing farm structure, rural infrastructure, and the weak farm-supporting institutions is not expected to raise farm productivity and reduce poverty among the poor farmers. The results call for a strong and active role of the government in close partnership with the private sector to initiate income-generating activities and inputs supply chains in the rural areas to break the nexus of poverty, land degradation, and low agricultural productivity. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 219-248 Volume: 42 Issue: 3 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume3/219-248.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:219-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Faiz Bilquees Author-X-Name-First: Faiz Author-X-Name-Last: Bilquees Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: An Analysis of Budget Deficits, Debt Accumulation, and Debt Instability Abstract: In Pakistan all the macro indicators have been adversely affected by the persistently high deficits and the strategy adopted to finance them in the last two decades. The excessive domestic borrowing at high rates to finance deficits without any attempts at domestic resource mobilisation and controlling of the deficits over extended periods absorbed all available domestic and external resources. The resulting debttrap led to increased external borrowings at high rates with short-term maturity. This, coupled with massive exchange rate depreciation throughout the last two decades, resulted in rapid debt accumulation. The recent fiscal space created in the wake of events of 9/11, resulting in high reserves, follows considerable debt relief and availability of massive funds on very soft terms. However, the decline in budget deficit continues to occur at the expense of development expenditure, along with some increase in tax revenues. This trend in expenditure needs to be reversed if serious progress in debt reduction is the aim. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 177-195 Volume: 42 Issue: 3 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume3/177-195.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:177-195 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fazal Husain Author-X-Name-First: Fazal Author-X-Name-Last: Husain Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Muhammad Ali Qasim Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Qasim Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Khalid Hameed Sheikh Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Hameed Author-X-Name-Last: Sheikh Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: An Analysis of Public Expenditure on Education in Pakistan Abstract: Achieving economic growth is an important goal of any country. However, in recent years it has increasingly been realised that economic growth is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for human development. Pakistan provides a good example of a country which has historically enjoyed a respectable GDP growth rate and yet failed to translate this positive development into a satisfactory level of human development. Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan’s development policies have focused primarily on realising high economic growth and only incidentally on the task of providing social necessities. Such a process has given rise to a structure of production and distribution which has been only indirectly responsive to social goals. However, there is now a growing realisation that we could have done much better had we stressed human resource investments relatively more. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 771-780 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/771-780.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:771-780 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid Mustafa Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Mustafa Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agricultural Marketing, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Title: Barriers against Agricultural Exports from Pakistan: The Role of WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement Abstract: There has been growing recognition that Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement can impede trade in agricultural and food products. Pakistan, in particular experiences problems in meeting the SPS requirements of developed countries and, it is claimed, this can seriously impede its ability to export agricultural and food products. Attempts have been made to reduce the trade distortive effects of SPS measures through, for example, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) SPS Agreement, although it is claimed that current initiatives fail to address many of the key problems experienced by Pakistan and other developing countries. The present paper explores implications of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement on exports of agricultural and food products from Pakistan. It identifies the problems that Pakistan faces in meeting SPS requirements and how these relate to the nature of SPS measures and the compliance resources available to Government of Pakistan and the supply chain. The paper examines the impact of SPS agreement on the extent to which SPS measures impede exports from Pakistan. It identifies the problems that limit participation of Pakistan in the SPS agreement and its concerns about the way in which it currently operates. The paper is organised into seven sections. In Section II salient features of the SPS agreement are highlighted. Section III delineates key issues arising from the implementation of SPS measures. Section IV summarises factors determining limits to effective participation of Pakistan and other developing countries in the SPS agreement. Section V outlines main concerns of Pakistan to the adoption and implementation of SPS measures. Section VI presents brief note on wider implications of SPS agreement for Pakistan. And finally Section VII summarises main conclusions and outlines policy measures Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 487-510 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/487-510.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:487-510 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Hanif Akhtar Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Hanif Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Commerce, Bahauddin Zakariya, University, Multan. Title: An Evaluation of Karachi Export Processing Zone: A Preliminary Investigation Abstract: The literature on EPZs shows that these are a second-best solution compared with generalised countrywide reforms, but that, where countrywide reforms are difficult to implement, they can be a useful weapon in the development arsenal [World Bank (2001)]. EPZs have been instrumental not only in increasing exports but also attracting export-oriented foreign direct investment (FDI). China is a classic example to be mentioned here where the levels of FDI have gone up massively over the last ten years. Added up with exports increase are also the benefits of employment generation, development of backward and forward linkages and strengthening the industrial base. The phenomenon of export-processing zones (EPZs) is a part of broader context of structural changes in global economic development. During the last few decades, there has been a tremendous increase in exports of manufactured goods especially from developing countries. EPZs have emerged as an important channel of export generation, especially of manufactured goods, from most of the developing countries e.g. East Asia, Mexico, Morocco etc. Their significance cannot be undermined because of the location-specific advantages and infrastructure facilities possessed by them. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 927-940 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/927-940.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:927-940 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sadiq Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Sadiq Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit of the World Bank South Asia. Title: Budgetary Reforms for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan Abstract: Webster’s Dictionary defines institution as “an established order, principle, law or usage as an element of organised society or of civilisation”. There are other interpretations of this term, depending upon the context for which the term is needed. For the purposes of the theme of this 19th Annual General Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists (PSDE), “Institutional Change, Growth and Poverty”, I find this well-crafted Webster Dictionary definition to be appropriate and adequate. There is now strong recognition that institutional reforms are necessary to sustain rapid growth and poverty reduction in developing countries. However, it is first necessary to identify and specify what these institutional reforms are. A number of systematic efforts to define institutions in an analytical context have been undertaken. For example, the World Development Report (WDR) 2002 of the World Bank focused on “Building Institutions for Markets” as the core theme of the report.1 There has been emphasis on aspects of institutions in other WDRs as well, including in the WDR 1997 on the Role of the State,2 the WDR 2003 on Environment,3 and the most recent WDR 2004 on Service Delivery.4 Each of the WDRs builds on the analysis of earlier WDRs and provides analysis of the institutional context of the development challenge in concrete terms to make associated reforms implementable. This is indeed a laudable effort and provides a fairly rich analytical base over which one can build on to move the institutional reform agenda forward. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 349-373 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/349-373.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:349-373 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rashid Amjad Author-X-Name-First: Rashid Author-X-Name-Last: Amjad Author-Workplace-Name: International Labour Organization (ILO), Geneva. Title: Solving Pakistan's Poverty Puzzle: Whom Should We Believe? What Should We Do? Abstract: Understanding Pakistan’s economic performance has never been easy. Its capacity to generate impressive rates of economic growth in the 1960s and 1980s with low levels of savings, investment and very poor human development indicators confounded its critics. Indeed during the overall period 1960–1990 Pakistan’s growth performance would place it in the top ten countries in the world. This made an eminent economist Professor Richard Eckaus remark, “Pakistan is a puzzle, a miracle of levitation. With one of the lowest domestic savings rate in Asia, its economy has performed quite creditably. Since we do not believe in miracles, we have to wonder whether the capital inflows that have sustained this growth will last”.1 Unfortunately they did not. Pakistan’s growth rate in the 1990s came tumbling down, the result of a number of factors of which a decline in capital inflows also played a significant part. If Pakistan’s growth performance has been in part difficult to justify then understanding or explaining changes and wide fluctuations in its poverty levels has posed even a more challenging task. Pakistan has witnessed over the last three decades periods of high economic growth, as in the 1960s, accompanied with increasing poverty levels, periods of low economic growth, as in the 1970s, accompanied by reductions in poverty levels, periods of high economic growth leading to a decline in poverty as in the 1980s and periods of low economic growth as in the 1990s accompanied by as we shall see by increasing poverty levels. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 375-393 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/375-393.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:375-393 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum Author-X-Name-First: Abdul Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Muhammad Arshad Khan Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Arshad Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Government Intermediate College, Nar (Kotli), Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Title: Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilisation in Pakistan Abstract: Under the current managed float exchange rate system; the central bank may respond to an exchange market disequilibria by changing either the international reserves or the exchange rates. Under such a regime, a major policy difficulty is the interaction between exchange rate policies and monetary policies. The monetary authorities intervene in the exchange market in response to undesired fluctuations in exchange rates,1 could adversely affect monetary control and move the economy away from internal target such as price stability. Under such a policy dilemma, fully sterilised intervention2 involves a pure swap of foreign and domestic assets, which have not effect on the money supply, received greater attention by the policy-makers in early 1980s, particularly, through the experience of West Germany [Obstfeld (1983)]. Ideally, it provides an independent policy tool to deal with the exchange rate without affecting the internal policy targets. Moreover, it is argues that fully sterilised intervention insulate domestic policies completely from balance of payments considerations. Further, the effects of intervention on exchange rates are close to zero if intervention is completely sterilised. Given this conviction, it is hard to see why the central bank would intervene in the foreign exchange market and sterilised completely at the same time [Neumann (1984)]. It is further argued that sterilisation is capable to move exchange rates through either a portfolio or signaling channel. In developing countries, an intervention may not be used purely to stabilise exchange rate but to reduce its impacts of volatile exchange rates on price level. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 975-985 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/975-985.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:975-985 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rana Ejaz Ali Khan Author-X-Name-First: Rana Ejaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Government Faridia College, Pakpattan, Pakistan. Title: Children in Different Activities: Child Schooling and Child Labour Abstract: Using primary data from two districts of Pakistan, this article analyses the supplyside determinants of child labour. The study finds that the birth-order of the child has a significant association with schooling and labour decision of child: first school enrolment of children is delayed; there exists gender disparity in favour of male children; the children from female-headed households are more likely to go to school; the education of the head of household has a positive impact on child’s schooling; among the parent’s parameters mother’s education is more important than father’s; parental education is positively associated with child schooling and negatively associated with child labour. The ownership of assets impacts the schooling positively, and labour negatively; the household size affects the schooling negatively, and work positively; and household composition also has a significant effect on schooling and child labour. The children from urban areas are more likely to go to school. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 137-160 Volume: 42 Issue: 2 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume2/137-160.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:2:p:137-160 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Minhaj Ul Haque Author-X-Name-First: Minhaj Ul Author-X-Name-Last: Haque Author-Workplace-Name: Population Council, Islamabad. Author-Name: Munawar Sultana Author-X-Name-First: Munawar Author-X-Name-Last: Sultana Author-Workplace-Name: Population Council, Islamabad. Title: Coming of Age in Contemporary Pakistan: Influences of Gender and Poverty Abstract: Economic development is strongly connected to the longevity, growth and structure of country’s population [Bloom and Canning (2003)]. Pakistan currently has the largest cohort of young people in its history (25 million aged 15–24, Census 1998) that has serious implications for the provision of schooling, health services and adequate jobs. Therefore the well being of these valuable young cohorts is profoundly important for the social and economic development and prosperity of Pakistan [Population Council (2003)]. This demographic lift can promote economic lift-off [Bloom and Canning (2003)]. In fact, Pakistan will face dire consequences if this resource is not capitalised and young people remain uneducated and unskilled [Faizunnisa and Ikram (2003)]. Work is one of the key transitions in the lives of young people. It is an important marker of adulthood, with strong implications for a country’s social and economic development. Work depending on its nature and remuneration can be the most important factor shaping adult lives. Youth employment has many implications for the labour market, poorer households and for the youth themselves. There has been relatively little or no opportunity to study the transition to adulthood in developing countries due to the lack of longitudinal data on youth. Most development research and programmes on adolescents and youth have focused on sexual and reproductive behaviour [Mensch and Greene (1998)]. However the participation of young people aged 15–24 in the labour force is emerging as an important development issue. Most of the studies, carried out on economic activities are primarily restricted to the empirical efforts to estimate the level of labour force participation. This is the area least explored in Pakistan and little is known regarding various dimensions of youth’s involvement in labour force including the determinants pushing them towards work. Increased attention has been directed at understanding the factors that encourage and/or discourage their involvement in work. Durrant (2000), analysed the Pakistan Integrated Household Surveys 1991 and PIHS 1995-96, that highlighted various opportunities and constraints towards Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 643-668 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/643-668.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:643-668 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Huseyin Özer Author-X-Name-First: Huseyin Author-X-Name-Last: Özer Author-Workplace-Name: Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey. Title: Consumption Patterns of Major Food Items in Turkey Abstract: Demand estimates for food not only provide information bases to characterise food demand structure, but also provide a complete and consistent framework to evaluate the impacts of policy changes, since both price policies and the human capital policies related to health and nutrition are closely related to the determination of expenditure (or income) elasticities. This study attempts to produce a complete set of expenditure and price elasticities based on the estimates of food demand parameters in Turkey. The Linear Expenditure System (LES) is estimated using the last available cross-section budget survey data. The estimates throw light on certain characteristics of Turkish household behaviour that has some consequences for government policies. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 29-40 Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume1/29-40.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:1:p:29-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Monazza Aslam Author-X-Name-First: Monazza Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam Author-Workplace-Name: Studying at Wolfson College, University of Oxford, England. Title: The Determinants of Student Achievement in Government and Private Schools in Pakistan Abstract: This study is driven by some fundamental issues evolving in Pakistan’s educational set-up. In the past few decades, the country has been experiencing what can only be termed a dramatic revolution in education provision. There has been an explosion of private schooling mostly at the primary but at higher levels as well and, somewhat surprisingly, private schooling cannot be relegated the status of an urban èlite phenomenon alone [Andrabi, et al. (2002)]. This has taken the form of many poor households and those in rural areas opting to send their children to fee-paying private schools rather than the non-fee charging government schools. This transformation of the education sector has generated many concerns among which the ‘equity’ issue has been raised to the fore. The unprecedented growth of cheap private schooling has also raised questions regarding the role of these institutions in the delivery of education, the question of parental ‘choice’1 as well as the future of government educational policy. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 841-876 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/841-876.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:841-876 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aliya H. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Aliya H. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ali Shan Azhar Author-X-Name-First: Ali Shan Author-X-Name-Last: Azhar Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Decomposition of Changes in Poverty Measures: Sectoral and Institutional Considerations for the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper of Pakistan Abstract: Two extremely significant empirical questions on the relationship between growth, distribution and poverty have remained the focus of attention for researchers and academicians. First, how does a change in aggregate poverty reflect intrasectoral gains/losses versus intersectoral shifts in population? Second, how much of an observed change in poverty can be attributed to the changes in the distribution of income, as distinct from growth in average incomes? Standard inequality measures like the Gini coefficient can be misleading in this context. At any rate, the change in an inequality measure can be a poor guide to its quantitative impact on poverty. Ravallion and Huppi (1991) proposed decomposition formulae to throw light on the contributions of sectoral gains and population shifts (on the one hand) and economic growth and changes in inequality (on the other) to aggregate changes in poverty. They found that both population shifts and gains to the urban and rural sectors alleviated aggregate poverty in Indonesia over the 1984–87 period. In addition, they obtained estimates of the relative contributions of growth and greater equity to poverty alleviation in Indonesia. Datt and Ravallion (1992) extended the analysis to study poverty in Brazil and India during the 1980s. Kakwani (1993) explored the relation between economic growth and poverty for Cote d’Ivoire from 1980–85. He developed his own methodology to measure separately the impact of changes in average income and income inequality on poverty. Kakwani (2000) applied the same methodology to analyse changes in poverty in Thailand covering the period from 1988–94. Recently, Contreas (2003) examined the evolution of poverty and inequality in Chile between 1990 and 1996. Using the “Datt-Ravallion decomposition”, he computed that economic growth accounted for over 85 percent of the poverty reduction in Chile. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 879-892 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/879-892.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:879-892 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hina Nazli Author-X-Name-First: Hina Author-X-Name-Last: Nazli Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad and Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd. Author-Name: Sohail J. Malik Author-X-Name-First: Sohail J. Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad and Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd. Title: Housing: Opportunity, Security, and Empowerment for the Poor Abstract: The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Pakistan1 lays considerable emphasis on housing finance as a major intervention for poverty reduction. The national Housing Policy of 2001 has as its corner stone housing for the poor and needy. The Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy of Pakistan (IPRSP) completed in November 2001 explicitly recognised the importance of Housing for the poor. It stated that “housing is a fundamental human need as it provides physical, economic, and social security to the poor. However, depressed economic growth, rising population, and rapid urbanisation have resulted in an increased demand for housing infrastructure. It stated that the present backlog of housing units is more than 4 million in the country with the result that millions are forced to live in Katchi Abadis or under-serviced slum settlements. Estimates for urban population living in Katchi Abadis range from 35-50 percent”. This paper highlight the importance of housing as an important dimension of poverty by examining the available literature that show the crucial contribution of adequate housing for ensuring opportunity, security and empowerment—the three pillars for poverty reduction. There is global consensus now that these three elements form the essential pillars of any poverty reduction strategy. This paper shows how inadequate housing creates a sense of insecurity and disempowerment among the poor. Housing poverty in Pakistan is described and an index of poverty based on housing inadequacy is adapted and applied to data for Pakistan from the PIHS 1998- 99. It shows that the incidence of poverty based on housing inadequacy in Pakistan is much greater than that indicated by standard money-metric income/consumption based measures. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 893-908 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/893-908.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:893-908 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Dorosh Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Dorosh Author-Workplace-Name: South Asia Rural Division, WOURLD Bank, Washington, D.C. Author-Name: Muhammad Khan Niazi Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Khan Author-X-Name-Last: Niazi Author-Workplace-Name: Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan. Author-Name: Hina Nazli Author-X-Name-First: Hina Author-X-Name-Last: Nazli Author-Workplace-Name: Innovative Development Strategies, Islamabad, Pakistan. Title: Distributional Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Pakistan: A Multiplier Analysis Abstract: In spite of substantial growth in agricultural GDP in the 1990s, rural poverty rates in Pakistan did not decline. This paper explores the reasons for this lack of correlation between increases in agricultural production and poverty reduction through an analysis of growth linkages using a 2001-02 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based semi-inputoutput model. Model simulations indicate that expansion of traditional crop agriculture can significantly benefit rural poor farmers. However, because of skewed distribution of land and earnings from land, landless agricultural labourers and the rural non-farm poor (who, together, account for 61 percent of the rural poor) do not benefit directly from growth in the crop sector. In the absence of a change in the structure of rural incomes and employment, further measures will likely be needed for rapid poverty reduction in Pakistan, including greater efforts to boost the livestock sector, expansion of the rural non-farm economy (in addition to agricultural growth-induced linkage effects), and targeted interventions to the poorest rural households. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 249-275 Volume: 42 Issue: 3 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume3/249-275.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:249-275 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Himayatullah Author-X-Name-First: Himayatullah Author-X-Name-Last: Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Development Studies, NWFP Agricultural University, Peshawar. Title: Economic Valuation of the Environment and the Travel Cost Approach: The Case of Ayubia National Park Abstract: Environmental and natural resource systems such as lakes, rivers, streams, estuaries, forests, and parks provide goods in terms of resources (e.g., flora, fauna, and minerals) and services (e.g., waste sink assimilation), a source of amenity services, use for recreational purposes, and life-support functions. Knowledge of the values of these services may be important for a variety of reasons. Access to such resources for recreation is typically not allocated through markets. Rather, access is typically open to all visitors at a zero price or a nominal entrance fee that bears no relationship to the cost of providing access. And there is no or little variation in these access prices over time or across sites to provide data for econometric estimation of demand functions. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 537-551 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/537-551.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:537-551 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeshan Atique Author-X-Name-First: Zeshan Author-X-Name-Last: Atique Author-Workplace-Name: Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, Karachi and University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name: Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Mohsin Hasnain Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title: The Supply and Demand for Exports of Pakistan: The Polynomial Distributed Lag Model (PDL) Approach Abstract: In the global economy, the performance of any country will greatly depend on the performance of its exports. The trade performance determines the prospects of change. It helps countries win friends, and break the traditional mould of isolation and indifference. The performance of exports of countries depends on various price and non-price factors. In international trade transactions it is important to recognise that these transactions require some amount of time that occurs between the decision to buy and actual delivery of the product from foreign country. In the Econometric modelling lag occupies a central role. It is recognised that due to psychological, technical and institutional reasons, a dependent variable may respond to explanatory variables with lapse of time, in particular when dealing with time-series trade models. A number of studies have been conducted to examine the export performance of Pakistan. In the best of our knowledge, no study has been undertaken incorporating lags to examine the individual and cumulative impact of determinants of export performance of Pakistan. Thus, the ultimate purpose of this paper is to estimate consistent individual (short run) and cumulative (long run) elasticities of both export demand and supply determinants using annual data over the period 1972–2000 by applying Almon approach. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 961-972 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/961-972.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:961-972 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Atsushi Iimi Author-X-Name-First: Atsushi Author-X-Name-Last: Iimi Author-Workplace-Name: International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C. Title: Efficiency in the Pakistani Banking Industry: Empirical Evidence after the Structural Reform in the Late 1990s Abstract: This article examines the change in technical (in)efficiency of the Pakistani banking industry after the structural reform started in the late 1990s. With international assistance, the Pakistani government has undertaken the restructuring and preparation for privatisation of national commercial and development banks, of which the main goal is the improvement of the efficiency in financial markets. Despite the small sample size, the estimated stochastic production frontier indicates that employees are statistically productive, but capital in terms of branch network is not productive. This is an example counter to the common view that in a less developed banking industry, employees are too often idle and are not productive at all. It is also shown that the efficiency performance of the structural adjustment programmes is in marked contrast among banks. Some banks are found to have improved their technical efficiency during the reform period, while the efficiency improvement of others was ambiguous. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 41-57 Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume1/41-57.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:1:p:41-57 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Riaz Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Riaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Historical and Cultural Research (NIHCR), Islamabad. Title: Fatima Jinnah’s Concern for Women’s Technical Education Abstract: Madar-i-Millat Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah is known for her contribution to the uplift of various segments of Pakistani society which is indicated through her speeches, statements, messages and addresses at different functions and institutions, delivered on various occasions. Her special concern was that women of Pakistan which formed 50 percent of the population should be moulded to play their role on various aspects of human life. An important aspect to which she felt attached, was the promotion of technical education in the country. Along with men, she desired women of Pakistan should equally contribute to the industrial development of Pakistan. This could be done by spreading technical education amongst the girls of Pakistan. For this purpose she delivered a number of speeches, addressed various institutions and established various industrial homes. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 765-768 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/765-768.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:765-768 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Mohsin Author-X-Name-Last: Hasnain Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Center, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name: Shaista Alam Author-X-Name-First: Shaista Author-X-Name-Last: Alam Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Center, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name: Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Sabihuddin Author-X-Name-Last: Butt Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Center, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title: Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan Abstract: The impact of the policy reform on economic performance has been one of the stifling issues in development economics in the recent years. Since the middle 1970s, there has been considerable progress in the trade reform in the most developing countries, turning from an import substitution strategy to export-oriented approach. Pakistan also follows export-oriented policies. Pakistan’s trade pattern and trade policy have been moving towards fewer and fewer controls, tariffs rates have come tumbling down. Export-led-growth hypothesis (ELG) suggests that due to positive correlation between export and growth, therefore, export-oriented policies contribute to economic growth. Thus, international trade and development theory suggests that export growth contributes positively to economic growth. On the basis of this framework, most empirical work on the effects of export promoting strategy followed in developing countries evaluated openness with trade. Empirical research about the effect of this liberalisation process has treated export as principal channel for growth. The relationship with exports and growth, grounded in endogenous growth theory, has been tested for Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 715-723 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/715-723.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:715-723 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khadija Ali Author-X-Name-First: Khadija Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad. Title: Gender Exploitation: from Structural Adjustment Policies to Poverty Reduction Strategies Abstract: The aim of this paper is to review the existing empirical research concerning women’s exploitation as a result of policy measures imposed by the World Bank and the IMF, particularly under Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs). The central argument here is that SAPs have not been successful in achieving their basic objectives of ‘adjusting’ the economies instead, these policies have created severe social problems for the human beings, particularly for the poor and middle-income groups, in the countries where they (SAPs) have been implemented [Beneria and Feldman (1992); Cornia, Jolly and Stewart (1987); Floro (1995); Messkoub (1996) Moser (1989)]. Among these groups, although all members have to mobilise their efforts to support households so as to cope with the economic crisis, women have to bear an unequal share of this burden. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 669-694 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/669-694.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:669-694 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Iram A. Khan Author-X-Name-First: Iram A. Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Auditor-General of Pakistan, Islamabad. Title: Impact of Privatisation on Employment and Output in Pakistan Abstract: The paper aims to assess the impact of privatisation on employment and output in Pakistan. It uses edible oil and cement sectors as a case study in a pre- and post-privatisation comparative framework. Assessing the impact of privatisation in Pakistan is important at this juncture for two reasons. Firstly, the country is facing a severe economic crisis and privatisation forms an integral part of an array of reform measures recommended by multi-lateral donors as well as policy-makers within and without the country. Burki [(2000), p. 152] observes, “The economy and state of Pakistan are in crisis…. Pakistan has not faced a crisis of this magnitude in its entire 50-year history”. He refers to the five different crises that have combined to create this situation. These are: the global financial crisis, Pakistan’s short-term liquidity problem, economy’s structural weaknesses, severe social backwardness, and, finally, the crisis of governance. Burki (2000) suggests several solutions to the problems, and privatisation is one of the ways to restructure the economy and improve the quality of governance. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 513-536 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/513-536.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:513-536 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Azhar Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Azhar Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name: Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Sabihuddin Butt Author-Workplace-Name: Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title: Money-income Link in Developing Countries: a Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Approach Abstract: The question whether real money causes real output appears to be important for many economists working in the area of macroeconomics and, has been subjected to a variety of modern econometric techniques, producing conflicting results. One often applied method to investigate the empirical relationship between money and real activity is Granger causality analysis [Granger (1969)]. Using this approach, the causality question can be sharply posed as whether past values of money help to predict current values of output. This concept, however, should be clearly distinguished from any richer philosophical notion of causality [cf. Holland (1986)]. Present paper examines the relationship between money (both M1 and M2) and income (Real GDP) for 15 developing countries using a newly developed heterogeneous dynamic panel data approach.1 Sims (1972) postulated “the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from money to income agrees with the post war U.S. data, whereas the hypothesis that causality is unidirectional from income to money is rejected”. Since then a voluminous literature has emerged testing the direction of causality.2 Some studies have tested the relationship between these variables and the direction of causality for a particular country using time series techniques [e.g., Hsiao (1979) for Canada, Stock and Watson (1989) for U.S. data, Friedman and Kuttner (1992, 1993) for U.S. data, Thoma (1994) for U.S. data, Christiana and Ljungquist (1988) for U.S. data, Davis and Tanner (1997) for U.S. data. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 987-1014 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/987-1014.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:987-1014 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: A. R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First: A. R. Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Institutional Change, Growth, and Poverty Levels in Pakistan Abstract: It is now well-recognised that institutions matter in the growth process both directly and indirectly. Well-functioning institutions lead to higher investment levels, better policies, increase in social capital stock of a community, and better management of ethnic diversity and conflicts [see for example North (1990, 1994); Jutting (2003); Rodrik, et al. (2002); Dollar and Kray (2002); World Bank (2002); Aron (2000); Chu (2001) and Frischtak (1995)]. That the decay of institutions has led to poor governance—and the urgent need for improved governance in Pakistan particularly—has been well-documented in DRI/McGraw-Hill (1998); Pakistan (1999) and Hassan (2002). Transparent, participatory, and efficient working of institutions ensures correct priorities and appropriate policies; their effective and efficient implementation results in high growth, better income distribution, and alleviation of poverty Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 299-311 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/299-311.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:299-311 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sajjad Akhtar Author-X-Name-First: Sajjad Author-X-Name-Last: Akhtar Author-Workplace-Name: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Title: Is There Seasonality in Pakistan’s Merchandise Exports and Imports? The Univariate Modelling Approach Abstract: This paper investigates the existence of seasonal patterns in the quarterly merchandise export and import data of Pakistan from 1982: 1 to 2002: 1. Unit root tests are applied to determine whether the seasonal component in each variable exhibits stochastic non-stationarity. Deterministic and stochastic effects are isolated and quantified. Few alternate DGP specifications are identified, fitted and tested for their outof- sample forecasting performance. A tentative finding is that deterministic effects are relatively more important than stochastic ones. However, integrated models, i.e., ARIMA, mixed ARIMA, and ARIMA-GARCH, outperform deterministic models with respect to forecasting Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 59-75 Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume1/59-75.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:1:p:59-75 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Haroon Jamal Author-X-Name-First: Haroon Author-X-Name-Last: Jamal Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Center (SPDC), Karachi. Author-Name: Amir Jahan Khan Author-X-Name-First: Amir Author-X-Name-Last: Jahan Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Center (SPDC), Karachi. Author-Name: Imran Ashraf Toor Author-X-Name-First: Imran Author-X-Name-Last: Ashraf Toor Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Center (SPDC), Karachi. Author-Name: Naveed Amir Author-X-Name-First: Naveed Author-X-Name-Last: Amir Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Center (SPDC), Karachi. Title: Mapping the Spatial Deprivation of Pakistan Abstract: Geographical targeting may be a viable way to allocate resources for poverty alleviation in developing countries. Efficiency can be increased, and leakages to the nonpoor reduced substantially, by targeting needy areas. A national and regional database of substantial poverty maps or deprivation indices are not readily available in Pakistan. Further, existing activities of poverty alleviation are carried out on ad hoc basis in the absence of identified pockets of poverty. This paper presents indices of multiple deprivations based on the 1998 Population and Housing Census data. Possible applications of this exercise include identifying areas of need, making decisions on regional and sectoral priorities, facilitating targeted public interventions through special poverty alleviation programmes, understanding the relationship between poverty and its causes, and helping federal and provincial governments in determining financial awards. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 91-111 Volume: 42 Issue: 2 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume2/91-111.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:2:p:91-111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. Framurz K. Kiani Author-X-Name-First: M. Framurz Author-X-Name-Last: K. Kiani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad. Title: Motivation and Involvement of Men in Family Planning in Pakistan Abstract: The study of men in involvement and use of family planning methods is important because of their dominant role in family decision-making in the socio-structural context of Pakistan. The objective of present study is to examine the changes in knowledge and attitude of men about family planning, and also to estimate the extent to which it affects their contraceptive use behaviour. The findings show that men’s knowledge and contraceptive use has increased three times during the period from 1968-69 to 1990. The important factors that determine men’s contraceptive use behaviour are the approval of family planning, the communication with wife on family planning matters, and the desire for children. The multivariate analysis shows that men living in urban areas, with greater knowledge and a positive attitude towards family planning, are more likely to use contraception. In addition, wife’s autonomy is also important in explaining men’s involvement in the use of family planning. The study reveals that most Pakistani men approve of family planning and suggests that men should receive an equal focus together with women in the population welfare programme activities. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 197-217 Volume: 42 Issue: 3 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume3/197-217.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:3:p:197-217 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rafique Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Rafique Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Punjab, Lahore. Title: Motivational Factor of Development with Special Reference to Madar-e-Millat's Role in Creating Countrywide Awakening among Women Abstract: The focus of this write-up is on three points. First: development is a multidimensional process involving major changes not only in socio-economic structures and institutions but also in popular attitudes and perceptions. Second: these changes, however anti-status quo, can be initiated, maintained, and speeded up if some powerful motivational factor comes into operation, as happened during the revolutionary Pakistan Movement. Third: the countrywide enthusiastic celebration of the year 2003 as Madar-e-Millat Year has proved to be one such motivational factor as it has brought about an unusual awakenance among Pakistan’s womenfolk to demand a rightful place in all walks of life. This is heartening especially because nearly half of the country’s population has terribly lagged behind in every conceivable sphere of development. This newly acquired awakenance can be and should be mobilised for speeding up the process of development by strengthening women’s participatory role in all political, economic, cultural, and even religious activities. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 753-759 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/753-759.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:753-759 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Waqar A. Jehangir Author-X-Name-First: Waqar A. Author-X-Name-Last: Jehangir Author-Workplace-Name: International Water Management Institute, Lahore. Author-Name: Hugh Turral Author-X-Name-First: Hugh Author-X-Name-Last: Turral Author-Workplace-Name: International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Author-Name: Shahbaz Khan Author-X-Name-First: Shahbaz Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: CSIRO (Land and Water), Griffth, NSW, Australia. Title: Net Gains from Conjunctive Use of Surface and Ground Water Abstract: Pakistan is fortunate enough because its soils, topography and climate are generally suitable for farming but its agriculture sector faces the problem of scarcity of the irrigation water. This paucity of irrigation supplies has forced the farmers to use the ground water to augment their surface supplies. The quality of ground water in Pakistan varies from fit for irrigation to moderately saline to sodic. Thus the tubewell owners in the marginal quality ground water areas are bound to use the tubewell water in conjunction with the surface water on their farms. Currently the farmers are using about 65.75 BCM of ground water in Pakistan [Halcrow (2002)]. The international literature is filled with the studies on conjunctive water management and its impact on crop productivity and related issues [Gangwar and Toorn (1987); Bredehoeft and Young (1983); Gorelick (1988); Lingen (1988); O’Mara (1988); Shah (1988); Brewer and Sharma (2000); Datta and Dayal (2000); Raju and Brewer (2000); Sakhtivadivel and Chawala (2002) and Chaudhary and Shah (2003)]. In Pakistan, the review of literature shows that all of the previous studies conducted in the arena of water management reported the management problems leading to the inefficiencies in irrigation application and reduction in crop productivity, [Kijne and Velde (1991); Mustafa (1991) and Siddiq (1994)]. Few of the studies took into consideration the impact of waterlogging and salinity on productivity at farm level [Meyer, et al. (1996); Prathaper, et al. (1997) and O’Connell and Khan (1999)]. None of these studies have taken into consideration the trade-offs between gross farm income, ground water and salinity at irrigation subdivision level. To answer the issues of spatial differences in the trade offs between gross farm income, ground water and salinity at irrigation Subdivision level, this paper presents the results of the optimisation modeling at the Subdivisional level Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 823-838 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/823-838.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:823-838 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Musleh-Ud Din Author-X-Name-First: Musleh-Ud Author-X-Name-Last: Din Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Ejaz Ghani Author-X-Name-First: Ejaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ghani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Omer Siddique Author-X-Name-First: Omer Author-X-Name-Last: Siddique Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan Abstract: Trade and growth theories generally predict a positive relationship between openness to international trade and economic growth. There are a number of channels through which openness is thought to influence economic growth. First, a liberal trade regime enhances efficiency through greater competition and improved resource allocation. Second, greater access to world markets allows economies to overcome size limitations and benefit from economies of scale. Third, imports of capital and intermediate goods can contribute to the growth process by enlarging the productive capacity of the economy. Fourth, trade can lead to productivity gains through international diffusion and adoption of new technologies. Empirical studies on the relationship between openness and economic growth have largely supported the view that openness has a favourable impact on economic growth. It is not surprising, then, that the proposition that more open economies tend to grow faster has gained wide acceptance in academic as well as policy circles. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between openness and economic growth in the context of Pakistan’s economy. Section 2 reviews the literature on openness and economic growth. Section 3 provides an overview of trade liberalisation in Pakistan. Data and methodology are described in Section 4, while Section 5 presents the empirical results. Section 6 concludes the discussion. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 795-807 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/795-807.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:795-807 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rolf Kappel Author-X-Name-First: Rolf Author-X-Name-Last: Kappel Author-Workplace-Name: NADEL,ETH (Federal Institute of Technology), Zurich. Title: Openness, Institutions, and Policies: Determinants of Globalisation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries Abstract: Globalisation describes the increasing integration of national economies through international trade, capital transfers, and the exchange of information or knowledge. This paper focuses exclusively on trade integration. Most economists hold that reducing trade barriers has a decisive positive effect on economic growth and poverty reduction (“openness hypothesis”). However, some economists diagnose deficient or weakly enforced non-market institutions as the major cause of slow growth. The main goal of this paper is to show that these two seemingly contrary points of view do not exclude each other. Openness is not only influenced by trade policy but also by other policies and the quality of institutions. Available data show a high negative correlation between the logarithm of tariff rates and indicators of the quality of institutions. Cross-national growth regressions demonstrate that the explanatory power of trade protection and a combined measure of openness, on the one hand, and institutional quality, on the other hand, is comparable. Therefore, it is concluded that liberal trade policies are recommendable, but must be complemented by sound macroeconomic management, micro-policy to strengthen domestic competition, and institutional improvements. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 395-416 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/395-416.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:395-416 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Haroon Jamal Author-X-Name-First: Haroon Author-X-Name-Last: Jamal Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi. Title: Poverty and Inequality during the Adjustment Decade: Empirical Findings from Household Surveys Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamics of poverty and inequality in Pakistan over the period 1988–1999. The year 1988 was the year of the first formal Structural Adjustment Lending (SAL) from the World Bank and the IMF. Thus, this analysis facilitates the debate regarding the impact of SAL on household welfare and poverty. This is done by analysing changes in poverty and inequality from two comparable household income and expenditure surveys conducted by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. Our findings show an increase both in the Gini coefficient from 0.34 to 0.38 and poverty incidence from 24 to 30. The dynamic decomposition of the poverty index indicates the relative importance of growth and redistribution effects in explaining the changes in poverty. The analysis reveals that increase in poverty can mainly be attributed to low economic growth during the decade especially in the rural areas. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 125-135 Volume: 42 Issue: 2 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume2/125-135.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:2:p:125-135 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: G. M. Arif Author-X-Name-First: G. M. Author-X-Name-Last: Arif Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad Author-Name: Najam Us Saqib Author-X-Name-First: Najam Us Author-X-Name-Last: Saqib Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad Title: Production of Cognitive and Life Skills in Public, Private, and NGO Schools in Pakistan. Abstract: The share of private and NGO schools in primary education has substantially increased over time, though the public sector is still a major player in this area. The present study analyses the factors determining the quality of education offered by the three types of schools and draws policy recommendations for improving primary education in Pakistan. The study compares learning achievement of Class 4 students enrolled in 50 public, private, and NGO schools located across six districts of Pakistan and in Azad Kashmir in terms of their scores in Mathematics, Urdu, and General Knowledge tests. The analysis shows that, practically, there is no gap between public and NGO schools in terms of the test scores of their students. However, a significant test score gap was found between the students enrolled in public and private schools. This gap was largely explained by family background and school-related variables, including teachers’ qualification and student/teacher ratio. However, the performance of private schools was not uniform across districts. In some districts public schools performed even better than private and NGO schools. The findings of this study highlight the need for improving the quality of education in public schools by recruiting more qualified teachers and improving overall supervision. Teacher training is the area where the public and private sectors can benefit by pooling their resources and expertise. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 1-28 Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Year: 2003 File-URL: http: //www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume1/1-28.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:1:p:1-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hafiz A. Pasha Author-X-Name-First: Hafiz A. Author-X-Name-Last: Pasha Author-Workplace-Name: Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific of the UNDP. Author-Name: T. Palanivel Author-X-Name-First: T. Author-X-Name-Last: Palanivel Author-Workplace-Name: UNDP's Asia-Pacific Regional Programme on Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction. Title: Pro-poor Growth and Policies: The Asian Experience Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assemble on a systematic basis the available data on Asian countries and then analyse the relationship between growth and poverty reduction in a long-term perspective, as well as the impact of different macroeconomic variables on the intensity of this relationship. The results indicate that there is not only a strong positive relationship between growth and poverty reduction, but also that this relationship is highly variable across countries and time periods. The key macroeconomic determinants of the degree of pro-poor growth appear to be the rates of employment and agricultural growth. Inflation, at least up to a certain rate, does not impact poverty negatively, while the role of exports is essentially indirect through the contribution to the overall rate of economic growth. Examination of the change in policy stance of the Asian countries during the 1990s in relation to the 1980s demonstrates that on balance the mix of policies has not been pro-poor. The apparent sacrifice of growth in pursuit of macroeconomic stability has diminished the impact on poverty reduction. Given the relatively weak trade-off between inflation and growth with regard to the impact on poverty and the fact that inflation rates are currently low in the region, it is argued that countries can be more flexible in their policy stance with regard to the adoption of more growth-oriented as opposed to stabilisation policies. In particular, a case is made for resorting to a more expansionary counter-cyclical fiscal policy, led by higher levels of public investment, supported by appropriate monetary and exchange rate policies. The paper concludes with a detailed description of the policies designed to achieve faster agricultural development and greater employment generation. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 313-348 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/313-348.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:313-348 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nanak Kakwani Author-X-Name-First: Nanak Author-X-Name-Last: Kakwani Author-Workplace-Name: International Poverty Center, United Nations Development Programme. Author-Name: Hyun H. Son Author-X-Name-First: Hyun H. Author-X-Name-Last: Son Author-Workplace-Name: Departmetn of Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. Title: Pro-poor Growth: Concepts and Measurement with Country Case Studies Abstract: This paper looks into the interrelation between economic growth, inequality, and poverty. Using the notion of pro-poor growth, we examine the extent to which the poor benefit from economic growth. First, various approaches to defining and measuring propoor growth are scrutinised using a variety of criteria. It is argued that the satisfaction of a monotonicity axiom is a key criterion for measuring pro-poor growth. The monotonicity axiom sets out a condition that the proportional reduction in poverty is a monotonically increasing function of the pro-poor growth measure. The paper proposes a pro-poor growth measure that satisfies the monotonicity criterion. This measure is called a ‘poverty equivalent growth rate’, which takes into account both the magnitude of growth and how the benefits of growth are distributed to the poor and the non-poor. As the new measure satisfies the criterion of monotonicity, it is indicative that to achieve rapid poverty reduction, the poverty equivalent growth rate—rather than the actual growth rate—ought to be maximised. The methodology developed in the paper is then applied to three Asian countries, namely, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 417-444 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/417-444.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:417-444 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: T. Scarlett Epstein Author-X-Name-First: T. Scarlett Author-X-Name-Last: Epstein Author-Workplace-Name: University of Sussex, U.K. Title: Redressing the Rural-Urban Imbalance Abstract: This paper focuses on rural poverty, its causes and effects, and suggests one of a number of possible measures to alleviate the problem. It examines why there exists an urban bias in development, and the impact it has on development patterns. The macroimplications derived from intensive longitudinal micro-studies of two South Indian villages are also examined. These studies throw into relief the key role income-generating opportunities play in rural societies. They show how the existence of such opportunities ensures the reduction of rural poverty and removes, or at least reduces, the need for ruralurban migration; whereas their absence has the reverse effect. As the growing rural population accompanied by increasing water shortages reduce the possibilities of continuing increases in agricultural productivity, there is an urgent need to urbanise rural life and to make it more attractive in terms of economy and infrastructure. Finally, an outline of a Three-Level Rural-Urban Business Linkages paradigm, which though putting emphasis on increased agricultural productivity, stresses the growing importance of establishing agro-based industries and the creation of other off-farm activities. It is presented as one option that may be pursued to redress the rural-urban imbalance and thereby reduce rural poverty. The paradigm involves a decentralisation of small goods productive processes in a setting of Growth Areas and Growth Centres that are linked with the nearest large towns and/or cities. As long as the political will exists and the necessary preconditions are met, the implementation of this paradigm constitutes a good chance of improving conditions in both rural and urban areas. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 445-466 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/445-466.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:445-466 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khadija Khan Author-X-Name-First: Khadija Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, Islamabad. Author-Name: Arshad Waheed Author-X-Name-First: Arshad Author-X-Name-Last: Waheed Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, Islamabad. Author-Name: Saadia Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Saadia Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, Islamabad. Title: Monitoring and Evaluation: Civil Society Organisations’ Competitive Edge in Effective Poverty Alleviation Abstract: The role of Civil Society Organisations as preferred partners in development is strongly emerging across the globe. Among many reasons, one is reasonably good governance. The social sector has shown the acumen to learn and apply corporate management practices and international standards fast enough to start leading the competition. Notwithstanding the fact that a large part of development funding under soft loans and grants is channeled to the government, the CSOs receive a significant share directly and indirectly to implement development projects in communities. It has opened tremendous opportunities for CSOs to experiment and evolve new approaches in project management, community organisation, service delivery, product development, resource mobilisation and financial management. What makes the civil society organisations different from the public sector organisations? Fundamentally two things; these are non-governmental and nonprofit. However, the real difference is in the way civil society organisations are managed. It includes leadership, commitment, professionalism, systems and practices, thrust of work and most of all performance. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 909-924 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/909-924.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:909-924 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Qazi Masood Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Qazi Masood Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration,Karachi, and Social Policy and Development Center, Karachi. Author-Name: Muhammad Sabir Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Sabir Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Center, Karachi. Title: The Burden of Stabilisation on Provinces and its Implications for the Social Sectors Abstract: An agenda of economic reform encompassing a broad range of structural adjustment policies (SAP) is underway in Pakistan since 1987-88. These policies have an adverse impact on the pace of economic growth and created more poverty and inequality in the country [see Bengali and Ahmed (2002); Kemal (2003)]. These studies argues that during the last fifteen years each government is trying to stabilise the economy even at the cost of economic growth and delivery of social services. The negative impact of stabilisation policies on economic growth of the country is reflected in the decline of GDP growth from an average annual growth of 4.6 percent during 1990s as compared to 6.5 percent during 1980s. Similarly, negligence of social services delivery is reflected in the recent UNDP Report (2003), which, show that the ranking of Pakistan has slipped from 136 to 141 along with the decline in many other social sector statistics. The top government officials now also recognise these facts and the relapse of growth oriented policy can be heard more often. Trend in public finance statistics of the country clearly indicate that one of the important victim of stabilisation policies are the expenditures of provincial governments. In last several years the significant portion of onus of containment of fiscal deficit has been shifted towards the provincial governments. The onus of containment of fiscal deficit by all four provincial governments during the last decade has increased from 18 percent to 50 percent, which has devastating impact on the service provision and poverty reduction. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 783-791 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/783-791.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:783-791 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Haroon Jamal Author-X-Name-First: Haroon Author-X-Name-Last: Jamal Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi. Author-Name: Amir Jahan Khan Author-X-Name-First: Amir Author-X-Name-Last: Jahan Khan Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi. Title: The Changing Profile of Regional Inequality Abstract: There is a growing concern in developing and transition economies that spatial and regional inequality, of economic activity, incomes, and social indicators, is on the increase. Regional inequality is a dimension of overall inequality, but it has added significance when spatial and regional divisions align with political and ethnic tensions to undermine social and political stability. Despite these important popular and policy concerns, surprisingly there is little systematic and coherent documentation of the facts of what has happened to spatial and regional inequality over the past twenty years. This paper is an attempt to meet this gap. It provides changing scenarios of multi-dimensional inter-temporal spatial inequality and level of development in Pakistan during early 1980s and late 1990s Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 113-123 Volume: 42 Issue: 2 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume2/113-123.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:2:p:113-123 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zahir Shah Author-X-Name-First: Zahir Author-X-Name-Last: Shah Author-Workplace-Name: Government College of Commerce, Mansehra. Author-Name: Qazi Masood Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Qazi Masood Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration, Karachi and Technical Adviser at the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi. Title: The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: an Empirical Investigation Abstract: The changing modes of international transactions and the cross-border mobilisation of factor resources, in pursuance of transnational production, constitute new dimensions for sustained economic growth. Foreign Direct Investment (an influential element of this process) is defined as the source of acquisition of managerial control by a business enterprise of a foreign country over a business activity in a host country [Graham (1982)]. The changing perceptions and more attractive policies of the host developing nations have changed the destinations of FDI flows from industrially developed countries to high growth developing centres. FDI stock held by developing countries has risen from $ 132.95 billion in 1980 to $ 1438.48 billion in 1999. Their share in inward stock has reached to 30.14 percent in 1999 as against 26.2 percent in 1980. FDI inflows during this period were raised from $ 4.42 billion to $ 208.0 billion, at an annual growth rate of 22.5 percent while GDP growth rate for that period was 3.9 percent. FDI brings the most needed capital fund, advanced production technique, snobbish managerial skills, advertising and marketing expertise, global links and the controversial phenomenon of “transfer pricing”.1 Pakistan, the world’s 7th most populated country with 140 million people, a relatively high growth rate of GDP (averaging around 6 percent), with a significant stock of natural resources and a variety of investment provisions has remained unattractive for FDI inflows. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 697-714 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/697-714.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:697-714 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Munir Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Munir Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: Kalbe Abbas Author-X-Name-First: Kalbe Author-X-Name-Last: Abbas Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: The Impact of Institutional Credit on Agricultural Production in Pakistan Abstract: Three main factors that contribute to agricultural growth are the increased use of agricultural inputs, technological change and technical efficiency. Technological change is the result of research and development efforts, while technical efficiency with which new technology is adopted and used more rationally is affected by the flow of information, better infrastructure, availability of funds and farmers’ managerial capabilities. Higher use and better mix of inputs also requires funds at the disposal of farmers. These funds could come either from farmers’ own savings or through borrowings. In less developed countries like Pakistan where savings are negligible especially among the small farmers, agricultural credit appears to be an essential input along with modern technology for higher productivity. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 469-485 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/469-485.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:469-485 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Muhammad Mahmud Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmud Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Business Administration, Karachi. Title: The Relationship between Economic Growth and Capital Structure of Listed Companies: Evidence of Japan, Malaysia, and Pakistan Abstract: Corporate enterprise is a natural outcome of capitalism in the course of economic development. The underwriter firms and banks etc. initially meet the capital requirements of such enterprise. Later on it is the stock exchange that carries out redistribution of shares of the enterprise. Corporate decisions on capital structure policy have long been a subject of debate and still remain an unresolved issue. The traditional view of capital structure was that it results in the weighted average cost of capital being U-shaped, which means that there exists as an optimal mix between debt and equity, at which point a firm’s value is maximised. However, Modigliani-Miller (1958), in a world of no tax and no financial distress, proved that capital structure is irrelevant to explaining firm values. When company taxes are considered, the benefits from tax shield leads Modigliani-Miller (1963) to conclude that the value maximising capital structure is extreme leverage. In a subsequent paper Miller (1977), by introducing both corporate tax and personal taxes into the model, points towards irrelevance of capital structure for any particular firm. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 727-750 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/727-750.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:727-750 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syed Mubashir Ali Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mubashir Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Isalamabad Author-Name: Rizwan Ul-haq Author-X-Name-First: Rizwan Author-X-Name-Last: Ul-haq Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Isalamabad Title: The Relationship between the WES Interventions and the Incidence of Diarrhoea Abstract: Access to clean drinking water and sanitation facilities have a direct positive impact on health through prevention of water-borne diseases, especially diarrhoeal morbidity of children. Lack of WES (Water and Environmental Sanitation) services and poor hygiene practices in Pakistan contribute significantly to the prevalence of diarrhoea, a major cause of infant death and children less than five years of age. The estimates show that about 30 percent of total deaths among children are attributed to diarrhoeal disease [Gallup (2001); UNICEF (2000)], and 4.1 years in life expectancy can be added if water borne diseases are eliminated [Ali and Haq (2003)]. Hence, reduction of diarrhoeal morbidity stands out as an important policy goal, which can ultimately lead to reduction in infant/child mortality. In this paper, we shall examine the relationship of WES interventions with that of the incidence of diarrhoea among children under age 10. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 555-568 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/555-568.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:555-568 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syed Tanwir Husain Naqvi Author-X-Name-First: Syed Tanwir Author-X-Name-Last: Husain Naqvi Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Army and Later headed the National Reconstruction Bureau, Islamabad. Title: The Triad of Governance, Devolution, and National Prosperity Abstract: I am privileged to have the opportunity to speak to this august audience of distinguished development economists very briefly, on what I have called the ‘Triad of Governance, Devolution and National Prosperity’. This, triad, I believe, lies at the heart of what constitutes the theme of this conference, namely ‘Institutional Change, Growth and Poverty’. The National Reconstruction Bureau which I was privileged to create and lead for all the three years of General Musharraf’s tenure as Chief Executive of Pakistan, was meant to transtate into reality the vision we crystallised for addressing the persistent failure of the institutions of state to provide solutions to the ever growing political, administrative, financial, judicial and social problems that the people of Pakistan faced since independence. The vision was ‘Reconstruction of the Institutions of State for Establishing Genuine and Sustainable Democracy to ensure Durable Good Governance for an Irreversible Transfer of Power to the People of Pakistan as soon as possible’. I will first give you a fleeting birds eye view of the wide spectrum over which our National Reconstruction endeavour in pursuit of this vision was spread. In the second part of this talk, which will contain the core of what I want to put across today, I will talk about financial devolution of the state. The third part of my talk will deal briefly with the burning issue of what we should do for turning our common citizens’ poverty into prosperity Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 629-640 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/629-640.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:629-640 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Talat Anwar Author-X-Name-First: Talat Author-X-Name-Last: Anwar Author-Workplace-Name: Research Department, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi. Title: Trends in Inequality in Pakistan between 1998-99 and 2001-02 Abstract: Although there has been a much debate on poverty in Pakistan in recent time, the discussion on inequality remained limited. Poverty and inequality are closely linked—for a given mean income, the more unequal the income distribution, the larger the percentage of the population living in income poverty. Thus, incomes at the top and in the middle of the distribution may be just as important to us in perceiving and measuring poverty as those at the bottom. It is, thus, important to monitor the whole income distribution rather than merely the bottom of distribution. The issue of income inequality in Pakistan has been important in the policy discussions since the early 1960s. Since then, a number of attempts have been made to estimate the income or expenditure inequality using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data. However, a perception of increasing absolute poverty in Pakistan has shifted the focus of studies from inequality (or relative poverty) to absolute poverty. Consequently, a number of attempts have been made by various authors/institutions to estimate the poverty in Pakistan in the 1990s. The debate on trends in poverty during the 1990s—an era of stabilisation and structural adjustment has been wide-ranging in Pakistan. However, there is no discussion on the changes in income distribution from the policy and institutional reforms. World Bank (2003); FBS (2001) and Kemal (2003) are only three exceptions. While the former two studies report Gini Coefficients in their studies on absolute poverty in Pakistan without explaining its variations over time, the latter study is a comprehensive review on the income distribution in Pakistan. It is this context that guided the author to evaluate the trends in inequality in Pakistan using the most recently available household data sets—PIHS 1998-99 and 2001-02. The results for the year 2001-02 are being presented for the first time, which should be useful to Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 809-821 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/809-821.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:809-821 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adeel Ghayur Author-X-Name-First: Adeel Author-X-Name-Last: Ghayur Author-Workplace-Name: Studing at University of Queensland, Australia. Title: Utilising the Surging Potential of E-commerce: A Case of Hour Glass Supply Chain Abstract: Decade of nineties saw two significant developments with far reaching implications; bringing down of iron curtain and the exponential growth of “Internet”. However, the impact of the latter has been phenomenal. It would not be wrong to say that Internet has redesigned the way we live and undertake economic activities. Ever since the launch of Windows 95 and Intel Pentium chip, the Internet has grown at an exponential rate, never witnessed before in any industry. At the turn of the century as many as 387 million people were hooked to Internet [UNCTAD (2003), p. 2]. As this bubble of Internet expanded, it started engulfing every aspect of life and business. The sheer difference of processes on Internet resulted in new terms as e-commerce and e-business to be coined up. In five years since 1995, Internet grew from simple information searching to controlling under sea robots. The biggest market penetration however, has been online retail stores and business to business (B2B) commerce. Online shopping has its potential because of its easy access by the customers and B2B commerce has its attraction in the savings achieved by implementing e-processes. Another advantage of doing business on Internet is the audit trail, with which any dubious transactions, from anywhere in the world could be traced back to its originator. In the beginning of this decade, the e-commerce was estimated to the tune of US$ 354 billion. This is slated to expand to US$ 9 trillion in just five years and continuing at the same pace through this decade, see Figure 1. This paper looks into the exponential growth of e-commerce, different sectors and e-supply chains. It develops a new concept in e-supply chain—Hour Glass Supply Chain (HGSC); detailing how this e-supply chain can help in the transition of Pakistan’s economy into e-economy. In this context this paper also elaborates as how Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 607-625 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/607-625.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:607-625 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kishwar Sultana Author-X-Name-First: Kishwar Author-X-Name-Last: Sultana Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Historical and Cultural Research (NIHCR), Islamabad. Title: Women’s Rights as Propounded by Fatima Jinnah Abstract: During the years (1937–1947) when Pakistan movement was at its peak, Fatima Jinnah’s role was nothing less than a beacon of hope for the Muslim women. Though the guidance of her elder brother Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, she herself became a role model not only for the Muslims women of South Asia, but for the women of whole Asian society. Her role as a women leader was even more important when after the death of Quaid-i-Azam in 1948 she became the focal point for aspirations of Pakistani women. It was under very difficult circumstances that she worked for the promotion of women’s rights and privileges in Pakistan. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 761-764 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/761-764.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:761-764 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Farooq Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Farooq Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA), Islamabad. Author-Name: Tariq Mahmood Author-X-Name-First: Tariq Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA), Islamabad. Title: WTO Regulations and the Audio-visual Sector—An Analytical Framework for Pakistan Abstract: Audio-visual services play a crucial and formative role in any society. These services are closely linked to the preservation of cultural identity and social values, and play a major role in shaping public opinion, safeguarding democratic system and developing creative potential. Due to these reasons, governments of both developed and developing countries not only provide direct and indirect incentives to their domestic industries but also strictly regulate the content of audio-visual media. During the Uruguay Round of WTO (World Trade Organisation) negotiations, audio-visual service sector witnessed limited liberalisation. Even major players such as the EU, Australia and Canada did not make any commitments to liberalise trade in these services. This was primarily to protect the domestic industries from foreign competition, promote their growth and to protect the cultural heritage of the nations from foreign influence. Many countries have repeatedly raised concerns about the capability of the GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services) framework to take into account the democratic, cultural and social aspects. Others have explained that audio-visual sector is largely covered by domestic regulations and normal trade rules are not applicable to these services. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 587-606 Volume: 42 Issue: 4 Year: 2003 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2003/Volume4/587-606.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:587-606