Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Toseef Azid Author-X-Name-First: Toseef Author-X-Name-Last: Azid Author-Workplace-Name: Markfield Institute of Higher Education (Loughborough University) Leicestershire, UK. Author-Name: Muhammad Jamil Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Jamil Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariay, University, Multan. Author-Name: Aneela Kousar Author-X-Name-First: Aneela Author-X-Name-Last: Kousar Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on Growth and Economic Performance: A Case Study of Pakistan, 1973-2003 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of volatility of exchange rates on the manufactured production of Pakistan’s economy. After a short introduction of the underlying theories and empirical literature, the relationship between these two variables is estimated. In the regression, the conditional variance of the real exchange rate is the measure of uncertainty (GARCH estimation). The results obtained are positive but are insignificant, and do not support the position that excessive volatility or shifting of exchange rate regimes has pronounced effects for manufacturing production. These results are consistent with what we obtain from the impulse responses. It is believed, however, that the thesis adds to the body of evidence, suggesting that exchange rate variability has no significant effect on manufacturing products. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 749-775 Volume: 44 Issue: 4 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/749-775.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:749-775 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sohail Zafar Author-X-Name-First: Sohail Author-X-Name-Last: Zafar Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Laval, Quebec, Canada. Author-Name: Eatzaz Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Eatzaz Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: Evidence on Allocative Efficiency and Elasticities of Substitution in the Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan Abstract: This study investigates the nature of allocative inefficiencies in large scale manufacturing sector of Pakistan over the period of 1969-70 to 1990-91. The study employ translog cost function to examine allocative inefficiency with capital labor and raw material as inputs. We estimate translog cost function along with share equations for manufacturing sector as a whole. The analysis here after performed with and without distortion parameters. The relative price efficiency between each pair of inputs provide the evidence at aggregate level that raw material is over used as compared to labor, while other inputs are equally efficiently utilized. It turns out labor is most responsive factor to change in factor price. Study suggests that long run economic growth could be achieved through adjustment policies that correct input market distortions. Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 795-803 Volume: 44 Issue: 4 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/795-803.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:795-803 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Seeme Mallick Author-X-Name-First:Seeme Author-X-Name-Last:Mallick Author-Workplace-Name:Deputy Director Environment, New Murree Development Authority. Author-Name: Naghmana Ghani Author-X-Name-First: Naghmana Author-X-Name-Last: Ghani Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: A Review of the Relationship between Poverty, Population Growth, and Environment Abstract: A discussion is presented on demographic transition that was successfully completed by developed countries, whereas developing countries are still at various stages of this transition. The paper suggests that in developing countries the condition of poverty has a strong influence on population growth rates. The paper presents an analysis regarding approaches followed by different schools of thought on the relationship between population, poverty and the environment. These schools agree that poverty and population growth rates have strong links, but they provide contrasting explanations for this link. As a result of this, they suggest divergent policy options to reach the common goal of sustainable population growth Journal: The Pakistan Developmetn Review Pages: 597-614 Volume: 44 Issue: 4 Year: 2005 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/597-614.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:597-614 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Muhammad Bashir Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last:Bashir Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Rural Social Sciences. Author-Name:Dilawar Khan Author-X-Name-First:Dilawar Author-X-Name-Last:Khan Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Agricultural Economics at the NWFP Agricultural University, Peshawar. Title:An Analysis of Allocative Efficiency of Wheat Growers in Northern Pakistan Abstract:Restricted translog production model is used to estimate the allocative efficiency of wheat growers in Peshawar Valley. It is found that average allocative efficiency is 72 percent. To increase the allocative efficiency, farmers need to increase the use of nitrogen and phosphorous and decrease the use of tillage and irrigation. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:643-657 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/643-657.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:643-657 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Muhammad A. Quddus Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad A. Author-X-Name-Last:Quddus Author-Workplace-Name:Punjab Economic Research Institute, Planning and Development Department, Government of the Punjab, Lahore. Author-Name:Ikram Saeed Author-X-Name-First:Ikram Author-X-Name-Last:Saeed Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC), Islamabad. Title:An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan Abstract:The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) paradigm for Pakistan, using data of the period from 1970-71 to 2003-04. The paper uses a number of analytical tools, including Unit Root Test, Phillips- Perron Tests, Co-integration Johansen Test, and the Granger Tests. The paper sets three hypotheses for testing the ELG paradigm for Pakistan; (a) whether GDP and exports are cointegrated, (b) whether exports Granger cause growth, and (c) whether exports Granger cause investment. The time series data on GDP growth, export growth and investment GDP ratio (proxy for capital formation), and the labour employed were used. The data were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Phillips-Perron test (1988), and then the relationship between GDP growth rate and the growth rate of other variables was determined using OLS with AR (1). The major finding of the present study is that growth rate of export, total investment, and labour employed have positively affected the GDP growth rate Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:921-937 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/921-937.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:921-937 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Rashida Haq Author-X-Name-First:Rashida Author-X-Name-Last:Haq Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Intitute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:An Analysis of Poverty at the Local Level Abstract:Using primary data from a union council of Punjab (Dhamyal), this article analyses the poverty and inequality at the lower administrative level. The analysis shows that 35 percent of the households are poor while there is wide variation of incidence of poverty among the seven villages of the union council. The highest magnitude of poverty in terms of incidence, intensity, and severity is found in the villages of Hayal and Mohra Bariyan. Location index also demonstrates that these two villages have high concentration of poverty as compared to its population share in the community. Income distribution by quintile shows that the bottom 20 percent households receive 6.7 percent of per capita income share while the upper 20 percent households receive 43 percent of per capita income share. Socio-economic dimensions of poverty reveal that a large number of earners, with large household size, a high dependency ratio, and a high percentage of illiterate head of the household, are marked in poor households. The housing and sanitation conditions of the community show that both poor and non-poor households are deprived of most civic amenities Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1093-1109 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1093-1109.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1093-1109 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari Author-X-Name-First: Syed Adnan Haider Author-X-Name-Last:Ali Shah Bukhari Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Computer Science and IT, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science, and Technology, Karachi. Author-Name:Mohsin Hassnain Ahmad Author-X-Name-First:Mohsin Hassnain Author-X-Name-Last:Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name:Applied Economics Research Center, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name:Shaista Alam Author-X-Name-First:Shaista Author-X-Name-Last:Alam Author-Workplace-Name:Applied Economics Research Center, University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name:Syeda Sonia Haider Ali Shah Bukhari Author-X-Name-First:Syeda Sonia Haider Author-X-Name-Last:Ali Shah Bukhari Author-Workplace-Name:Center of Economics and Social Sciences Research, Government College university, Faisalabad. Author-Name:Muhammad Shabihuddin Butt Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last:Shabihuddin Butt Author-Workplace-Name:Applied Economics Research Center, University of Karachi, Karachi. Title:An Empirical Analysis of the Linder Abstract:This paper presents empirical evidence in support of the Linder theory of international trade for three of the South Asian countries, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. This finding implies that these countries trade more intensively with countries of other regions, which may have similar per capita income levels, as predicted by Linder in his hypothesis. The contribution of this research is threefold: first, there is new information on the Linder hypothesis by focusing on South Asian countries; second, this is one of very few analyses to capture both time-series and cross-section elements of the trade relationship by employing a panel data set; third, the empirical methodology used in this analysis corrects a major shortcoming in the existing literature by using a censored dependent variable in estimation. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:307-320 Volume:44 Issue:3 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume3/307-320.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:307-320 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Takashi Kurosaki Author-X-Name-First:Takashi Author-X-Name-Last:Kurosaki Author-Workplace-Name:Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan. Title:Determinants of Collective Action under Devolution Initiatives: The Case of Citizen Community Boards in Pakistan Abstract:In 2001, a scheme called Citizen Community Board (CCB), a kind of communitybased organisation (CBO), was introduced in Pakistan, under which local people propose development projects to the local government through forming a CCB, and upon approval the local government funds 80 percent of the project cost. Since 2001, however, both the number of CCBs and that of approved projects have been below the expected level. This raises a concern that the Pakistani society with limited historical experience in CBO-based development is too handicapped for the CCB scheme to be successful. This paper addresses this concern through quantifying the determinants of successful formation of a CCB and those of successful development activities conditional on the formation. The regression results using a cross-section dataset in a district in Pakistan Punjab in 2004-05 suggest that the rules within a CCB and the type of leadership are key to the success of CCB initiatives. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:253-269 Volume:44 Issue:3 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume3/253-269.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:253-269 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:John Gafar Author-X-Name-First:John Author-X-Name-Last:Gafar Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Long Island University , Brookville, NY 11548. Title:Do the Poor Benefit from Public Spending? A Look at the Evidence Abstract:This paper shows that public spending on basic services, to wit, primary and secondary education and basic health care, benefit the poor; while the non-poor are the principal beneficiaries of tertiary and education subsidies and hospital spending. The evidence also shows that expenditures on infrastructure spending tend to benefit the nonpoor disproportionately more than the poor. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:81-104 Volume:44 Issue:1 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume1/81-104.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:1:p:81-104 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Christopher Colclough Author-X-Name-First:Christopher Author-X-Name-Last:Colclough Author-Workplace-Name:Economics of Education, and Centre for Commonwealth Education at the University of Cambridge. Title:Does Education Abroad Help to Alleviate Poverty at Home? An Assessment Abstract:Flows of students abroad are increasing rapidly, encouraged by globalisation pressures, by declining quality of university provision in some of the poorest states and by the income needs of northern universities. Students from developing countries are increasingly self-financed, from middle-income countries and from richer families across all countries. The paper argues that both the direct and indirect impacts of these trends on poverty in sending states are likely to be negative. Some increased influence on home policy-formation by the overseas Indian and Chinese diaspora, and increased flows of return migrants to high-growth states in response to targeted recruitment incentives, provide evidence for countervailing tendencies. But for most developing countries, where economic growth is less dynamic, net benefits of international education for poverty alleviation remain unrealised. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:439-454 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/439-454.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:439-454 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Ahmed M. Khalid Author-X-Name-First:Ahmed M. Author-X-Name-Last:Khalid Author-Workplace-Name:Bond University, Gold Coast, Qld., Australia. Title:Economic Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Preliminary Empirical Estimates Abstract:There is a growing debate in the emerging market on the choice of an appropriate monetary or exchange rate policy that could lead to a sustainable economic growth. Inflation targeting has become one of these policy alternatives and has recently been implemented in some of the emerging markets in Asia and Latin America. Given the recent remarkable economic performance of the Pakistan, this issue has also been discussed at various policy forums in Pakistan. An important pre-condition for the success of inflation-targeting is to identify the leading indicators of inflation and develop a model to reasonably forecast inflation. This is the main objective of this paper. Besides an overview of the experience, the main focus of the paper is to provide some preliminary empirical estimates for inflation equation and its causal relationship with other macroeconomic variables. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:961-974 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/961-974.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:961-974 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Syed Kanwar Abbas Author-X-Name-First:Syed Kanwar Author-X-Name-Last:Abbas Author-Name:Asad Zaman Author-X-Name-First:Asad Author-X-Name-Last:Zaman Author-Workplace-Name:International Institute of Islamic Economics, Islamabad. Title:Efficiency Wage Hypothesis—The Case of Pakistan Abstract:The object of this paper is to present an exposition of Efficiency Wage theory, and to test its basic assertions in the context of Pakistan. The Great Depression of 1929 showed that labour disequilibrium persists for long periods of time. One of the causes of this was rigidity of nominal wages, which was assumed without explanation by Keynes in his General Theory. Stagflation in the 1970s led to re-examination of Keynesian theories and a search for a satisfactory theoretical explanation of wage rigidity. Efficiency Wage theories provide an explanation by suggesting that worker productivity increases with wage. This means that firms may not have incentive to cut wages even when they are above equilibrium. Substantial empirical evidence for efficiency wages has been found in the context of advanced economies, but there is very little literature for developingcountries. Saygili (1998) has given evidence for efficiency wages in the Turkish economy. Nasir (2000) provides empirical evidence for a wage differential between private and public sectors in Pakistan, which conforms to efficiency wage considerations. In this paper, we show that the textile sector in Pakistan appears to offer efficiency wages, while other sectors conform to neoclassical competitive labour market theorie Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1051-1066 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1051-1066.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1051-1066 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Usman Mustafa Author-X-Name-First:Usman Author-X-Name-Last:Mustafa Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Kalbe Abbas Author-X-Name-First:Kalbe Author-X-Name-Last:Abbas Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Amara Saeed Author-X-Name-First:Amara Author-X-Name-Last:Saeed Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Enhancing Vocational Training for Economic Growth in Pakistan Abstract:Training and skills development play vital role in development. The demand for vocationally trained and technically educated human resource rises with every step towards industrialisation and modernisation of production units and work premises. Therefore, skill and capital are complementary. The paper specifically reviews and analyses the status of vocational training related policies and practices and their impact on the development of human resource in Pakistan. The study revealed that there is a time lag of 3 to 10 years to harness the benefits of training. Therefore, government should plan accordingly. It also explores that there exists a wide gap between demand and supply of effective manpower and lack of coordination amongst government and private agencies. There is a need to update and revise the existing curriculums, enhance of the status of the teachers, and strengthen the Institutions. Pakistan has favourable demographic transition trend, therefore, there is a need to exploit it properly. Public and private sectors should pursue demand based policies that promote growth in Human Resource Development. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:567-584 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/567-584.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:567-584 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Usman Haleem Author-X-Name-First:Usman Author-X-Name-Last:Haleem Author-Workplace-Name:University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Author-Name:Khalid Mushtaq Author-X-Name-First:Khalid Author-X-Name-Last:Mushtaq Author-Workplace-Name:University of Agriculture, Fasalabad. Author-Name:Azhar Abbas Author-X-Name-First:Azhar Author-X-Name-Last:Abbas Author-Workplace-Name:Technology Transfer Institute, (PARC) AARI, Faisalabad. Author-Name:A. D. Sheikh Author-X-Name-First:A. D. Author-X-Name-Last:Sheikh Author-Workplace-Name:Technology Transfer Institute, (PARC) AARI, Faisalabad. Title:Estimation of Export Supply Function for Citrus Fruit in Pakistan Abstract:There is strong evidence in the literature that export and economic growth have a positive relationship. In Pakistan, with an agrarian economy, earnings from primary agricultural exports are vital for the overall growth process. Fruits are the traditional export commodities, which contribute more than half of total export earnings from primary agricultural commodities. The persistent instability in world market prices for primary commodities has depressed the export earnings from these commodities over time. This poses great challenges to a country like Pakistan. The present study aims at examining changes in the volume of export of citrus fruit from Pakistan caused by such factors as changes in domestic and export prices, national product, foreign exchange rate, etc. The study uses time series data for the period 1975–2004 for citrus exports and related domestic price, export price, GDP, and foreign exchange rate, employing the co-integration and error correction techniques for analysis purposes. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:659-672 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/659-672.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:659-672 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Muhammad Arshad Khan Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last:Arshad Khan Author-Workplace-Name:Government Postgraduate College, Muzaffarabad (Azad Kashmir). Author-Name:Abdul Qayyum Author-X-Name-First:Abdul Author-X-Name-Last:Qayyum Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad. Author-Name:Saeed Ahmed Sheikh Author-X-Name-First:Saeed Author-X-Name-Last:Ahmed Sheikh Author-Workplace-Name:University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad (Azad Kashmir). Title:Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan Abstract:In this study, the relationship between financial depth and economic growth is examined in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework for Pakistan utilising annual data for the period 1971- 2004. The main empirical findings suggest that both in the long and the short run, financial depth exerted a positive effect on economic growth. The findings also suggest that in the long run, real interest rate had a significant and positive effect on economic growth. However, the short-run response of the real interest Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:819-837 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/819-837.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:819-837 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Naved Ahmad Author-X-Name-First:Naved Author-X-Name-Last:Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name:Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi. Title:Governance, Globalisation, and Human Development in Pakistan Abstract:The controversy over the likely effects of globalisation on economic well-being is well-debated in the literature, yet the subject remains open to further examination. This study explores the link between globalisation and governance in Pakistan. The analysis concludes that the benefits of globalisation in terms of improved social indicators are seriously undermined due to poor governance. The study suggests policies for improving governance in the country. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:585-594 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/585-594.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:585-594 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Durr-e-Nayab Author-X-Name-First:Durr-e- Author-X-Name-Last:Nayab Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Health-seeking Behaviour of Women Reporting Symptoms of Reproductive Tract Infections Abstract:A woman’s access to health care, in physical, social, and psychological contexts, depends on her health beliefs and her socio-economic and demographic background. As in most developing countries, the health system in Pakistan is a combination of modern and traditional medicine, and the nature of care sought again depends on the individual’s health beliefs and background characteristics. This paper thus not only focuses on whether women seek help or not when sick, but also on the differentials that exist in the health-seeking behaviour among women with different backgrounds. It finds that less than half the women reporting any symptom related to reproductive tract infections seek help, while for some symptoms the proportion seeking help goes down to a mere one-fifth. The decision to seek help depends on a woman’s educational and economic status, the extent to which she is worried about the symptom, duration of experiencing the symptom, and inter-spousal communication about the symptom. Lack of finances to access any health service and considering the symptom as something common not needing attention are the two main reasons for not seeking help. The choice of the healthprovider consulted for a symptom is linked to the perceived cause of the symptom, but allopathic doctors are preferred by the majority of women seeking health care. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1-35 Volume:44 Issue:1 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume1/1-35.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:1:p:1-35 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Zafar Mueen Nasir Author-X-Name-First:Zafar Mueen Author-X-Name-Last:Nasir Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:An Analysis of Occupational Choice in Pakistan: A Multinomial Approach Abstract:Occupational choice plays an important role in determining earnings and success in the labour market. In the social structure of Pakistan, an occupation reflects the socio-economic status of the individual. In this backdrop, the paper looks at the occupational structure and analyses how different characteristics help individuals to access jobs of their choice. The main issue discussed in the paper is how men and women have a different occupation distribution. Estimates are based on a multinomial log model of occupation choices for men and women, using the Pakistan Integrated Household Survey (PIHS) 2001-02 data. The empirical results show that individuals with high educational achievements choose high-ranking jobs. It is also noted that gender has a role in the labour market and males are sorted out in high-paying occupation. Occupational choice is influenced more by the human capital variables than by the individual characteristics. Among human capital variables, education has the strongest impact in the selection of an occupation of choice. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:57-79 Volume:44 Issue:1 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume1/57-79.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:1:p:57-79 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Mohsin S. Khan Author-X-Name-First:Mohsin S. Author-X-Name-Last:Khan Author-Workplace-Name:International Monetary Fund, Washington, D. C. Title:Human Capital and Economic Growth in Pakistan Abstract:Pakistan’s economy has grown faster on average than many other low- and middleincome countries over the past two decades. But several countries in Southeast Asia have fared even better. This paper focuses on factors that explain Pakistan’s relative growth performance. In addition to more traditional factors believed to determine growth, this paper looks particularly at the role of differences in the quality of human capital. The cross-country empirical results suggest that accumulation of physical capital and improvements in the quality of institutions have the largest pay-offs in terms of achieving higher growth, but that better education and health care also have a significant impact. Investment in these areas will increase the possibility of Pakistan entering a virtuous cycle of high growth and improved living conditions for the population. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:455-478 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/455-478.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:455-478 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Haroon Jamal Author-X-Name-First:Haroon Author-X-Name-Last:Jamal Author-Workplace-Name:Social Policy and Development Center, Karachi. Title:In Search of Poverty Predictors: The Case of Urban and Rural Pakistan Abstract:The main objective of this research is to provide correlates of household consumption or poverty using the latest household survey. The estimated coefficients and their weights may be used to predict poverty incidence from light monitoring survey such as Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ). The CWIQ survey instrument essentially collects simple welfare indicators from a large segment of population and is not designed to measure income, consumption or expenditure. The paper estimates consumption functions separately for urban and rural areas. These functions are estimatedwith the help of non-monetary correlates of consumption and applied to predict poverty at provincial and district levels. The paper also provides the latest estimates of poverty in the country using a consistent methodology. Overall, 33 percent people were poor, according to estimates from the latest available household survey of 2001-02. Incidence, depth, and severity of poverty are high in rural areas, as compared to their urban counterpart. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:37-55 Volume:44 Issue:1 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume1/37-55.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:1:p:37-55 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Talat Anwar Author-X-Name-First:Talat Author-X-Name-Last:Anwar Author-Workplace-Name:UNDP/UNOPS Project-Centre for Research on Poverty, Reduction and Income Distribution, Islamabad. Title:Prevalence of Relative Poverty in Pakistan Abstract:The conceptual basis of poverty in Pakistan remained limited to absolute notion of poverty which has been criticised on the grounds that it minimises the range and depth of human needs. The paper broadens the discussion on poverty and poverty measurement by examining the prevalence of relative poverty in Pakistan. Based on the moderate relative consumption poverty line of Rs 775 per capita per month, the prevalence of relative poverty was at 40.7 percent in 2001-02. On the other hand, half of the population was below the income-based moderate relative poverty line, implying that 77.5 million individuals were poor in Pakistan. At the province level, the results suggest the highest prevalence of urban poverty in the NWFP, followed by Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab. On the other hand, rural Sindh was the poorest region in the country, followed by the NWFP and Balochistan. The trends implied by the concept of relative poverty suggest a more rapidly increasing trend in relative poverty because of rising income inequality. As a result, gains in income accrued to the richest at the expense of the poorest and the middle income groups, implying that the rich got richer and the poor got poorer over the last 15 year. These results suggest that adverse distributional outcome may be due to the pursuance of stabilisation and adjustment programmes within the framework of the “Washington Consensus” which put too much emphasis on removing macroeconomic imbalances and enhancing economic growth while giving no consideration to equity and poverty. While economic growth alone is not enough for poverty reduction, there is a need to raise PRSP spending in order to pursue an effective poverty reduction strategy with a focus on redistributive policies. While the country has already made a commitment to attain the Millennium Development Goals, economic policies need to be expansionary. Poverty reduction strategy should be based on the policies of building up the assets of the poor and increasing the demand for those assets. An expansion of health and education for the low-income households and measures that increase the relative prices of agricultural commodities and the wages of unskilled labour should be part of new poverty reduction strategy. Focusing on agrarian strategies, especially those also favouring rural industrialisation, can lead to more egalitarian growth. Rapid expansion of labour-intensive exports may contribute to faster growth in employment. Policies to support this should favour labour-intensive techniques, e.g., by not subsidising capital and by securing more credit for small enterprises. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1111-1131 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1111-1131.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1111-1131 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad Author-X-Name-First:Mohsin Hasnain Author-X-Name-Last:Ahmad Author-Workplace-Name:Applied Economics Research centre (AERC), University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name:Usman Azhar Author-X-Name-First:Usman Author-X-Name-Last:Azhar Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Management Sciences, Balochistan University of Information Technology, Quetta. Author-Name:Syed Ashraf Wasti Author-X-Name-First:Syed Ashraf Author-X-Name-Last:Wasti Author-Workplace-Name:Applied Economics Research centre (AERC), University of Karachi, Karachi. Author-Name:Zeeshan Inam Author-X-Name-First:Zeeshan Author-X-Name-Last:Inam Author-Workplace-Name:University of Karachi, Karachi. Title:Interaction between population and Enviromental Degradation Abstract:The present study investigates the long-run interrelationship among the demographic variables and environmental indicators by using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique and error correction model to determine the short-run dynamics of the system related to time series data for Pakistan economy, over the period 1972–2001. The paper finds the existence of a cointegrating vector, indicating a valid long-run relationship among the variables. Moreover, demographic variables have a significant effect in the short-run on AL but their short-run coefficients have an insignificant impact on CO2 emission. The empirical evidence clearly support that high population growth rates have a deleterious impact on environment. The policy implication thereof is to enhance the need of lowering population in Pakistan which seems to be a burden on the existing resources and a challenge to the environment. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1135-1150 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1135-1150.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1135-1150 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Mian Tajammal Hussain Author-X-Name-First:Mian Tajammal Author-X-Name-Last:Hussain Author-Workplace-Name:Skill Development Council, Punjab, Lahore. Title:Skill Development, Productivity, and Growth Abstract: Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1153-1155 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1153-1155.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1153-1155 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:P. Wignaraja Author-X-Name-First:P. Author-X-Name-Last:Wignaraja Author-Workplace-Name:South Asian Prespective Network Association, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Title:Pro-Poor Growth and Governance in South Asia-Decentralisation and Participatory Development Abstract: Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1159-1171 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1159-1171.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1159-1171 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Abdul Qayyum Author-X-Name-First:Abdul Author-X-Name-Last:Qayyum Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Sajawal Khan Author-X-Name-First:Sajawal Author-X-Name-Last:Khan Author-Workplace-Name:Government Degree College, Ghasi (NWFP). Author-Name:Idrees Khawaja Author-X-Name-First:Idrees Author-X-Name-Last:Khawaja Author-Workplace-Name:Air University, Islamabad. Title:Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach Abstract:This paper empirically investigates the pass-through of the changes in the interest rate on Treasury bills in Pakistan to money market rate (call money rate), banks’ deposit rate, and banks’ lending rate. The motivation for the study is that the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism hinges upon the speed and extent of the pass-through of the policy rate to the individual elements of the transmission mechanism. Call money rate, banks’ deposit rate, and banks’ lending rate, being important elements of the monetary transmission mechanism, the examination of the pass-through to these rates will shed light on the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism. The results are, by and large, in conformity with the literature on the pass-through: pass-through of the changes in the treasury bill rate tocall money is completed in the impact period, i.e., one month. The pass-through to savings deposit rate starts during the first six months and continues for quite long. In the case of six-months deposit rate and the lending rate, no pass-through is noticed during the first six-months. The pass-through occurs between 1.5-3 years in both the cases. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:975-1001 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/975-1001.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:975-1001 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Asad Jan Author-X-Name-First:Asad Author-X-Name-Last:Jan Author-Workplace-Name:Economic Policy Department of the State Bank of Pakistan. Author-Name:Ather Elahi Author-X-Name-First:Ather Author-X-Name-Last:Elahi Author-Workplace-Name:Economic Policy Department of the State Bank of Pakistan. Author-Name:M. A. Zahid Author-X-Name-First:M. A. Author-X-Name-Last:Zahid Author-Workplace-Name:Economic Policy Department of the State Bank of Pakistan. Title:Managing Foreign Exchange Inflows: An Analysis of Sterilisation in Pakistan Abstract:The paper evaluates Pakistan’s experience of managing capital inflows witnessed in recent years, particularly after the 9/11 events, which had implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The State Bank of Pakistan intervened in the foreign exchange market by purchasing excess supply, with the objective to contain volatility in exchange rate, and at the same time building up foreign exchange reserves. The market interventions led to surplus rupee liquidity, which had to be sterilised in order to ensure price stability. The paper estimated empirically the sterilisation coefficient by using OLS technique. Sterilisation coefficient for Pakistan during July2000-December2003 was –0.87, indicating that 87 percent of the increase in NFA was sterilised through selling of government securities. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:777-792 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/777-792.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:1:p:777-792 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Rizwana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First:Rizwana Author-X-Name-Last:Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Modelling Gender Dimensions of the Impact of Economic Reforms on Time Allocation among Market, Household, and Leisure Activities in Pakistan Abstract:Developing countries are increasingly concerned about gender dimensions of the impacts of economic reforms initiated under the structural adjustment and stabilisation programmes. This article develops a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model based on the notions of production in paid economy and unpaid care economy pioneered by Fontana and Wood and applies it to Pakistan. The study assesses the impact of two types of shocks: trade liberalisation and fiscal adjustment. Results support the contention that trade liberalisation in the presence of compensatory measures overburdens women but reduces income-based poverty by all measures. In all other exercises, employment in the market sectors is decreased. The study concludes that despite significant changes in market employment, gender division of labour remains unequal within household economy. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:615-639 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/615-639.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:615-639 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Abdul Qayyum Author-X-Name-First:Abdul Author-X-Name-Last:Qayyum Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan Abstract:The study estimates the dynamic demand for money (M2) function in Pakistan by employing cointegration analysis and error correction mechanism. The parameters of preferred model are found to be super-exogenous for the relevant class of interventions. It is found that the rate of inflation is an important determinant of money demand in Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the rates of interest, market rate, and bond yield are important for the long-run money demand behaviour. Since the preferred model is superexogenous, it can be used for policy analysis in Pakistan. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:233-252 Volume:44 Issue:3 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume3/233-252.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:233-252 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:A. R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First:A. R. Author-X-Name-Last:Kemal Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Musleh-ud Din Author-X-Name-First:Musleh-ud Author-X-Name-Last:Din Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Ejaz Ghani Author-X-Name-First:Ejaz Author-X-Name-Last:Ghani Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Non-agricultural Market Access: A South Asian Perspective Abstract:A key element of the Doha Round of trade negotiations is liberalisation of trade in industrial products, commonly known as non-agricultural market access (NAMA). These negotiations are important for developing countries as these will determine the market access opportunities through which they can improve their growth prospects. This paper examines the key issues of NAMA from the South Asian perspective, outlines a negotiating strategy for increased market access, and spells out some policy implications. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:879-900 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/879-900.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:879-900 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:S. M. Aamir Shah Author-X-Name-First:S. M. Author-X-Name-Last:Aamir Shah Author-Workplace-Name:Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. Author-Name:Syed Tahir Hijazi Author-X-Name-First:Syed Tahir Author-X-Name-Last:Hijazi Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Business Administration, Mohammad Ali Jinnah University, Islamabad. Title:Performance Evaluation of Mutual Funds in Pakistan Abstract:This paper presents an overview of the Pakistani mutual fund industry and also evaluates mutual fund performance using a survivorship bias controlled sample of funds. By the end of financial year 2004, 112 billion rupees were invested in mutual funds. The main purpose of this study is to examine the risk and return characteristics of Pakistan equity mutual funds and balanced funds. Risk-adjusted performance is evaluated using three evaluation techniques, i.e., Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, and Jensen differential measure. The overall results suggest that mutual funds in Pakistan are able to add value as indicated by their positive after-cost alphas. Our results are similar to the results of studies carried out on European mutual funds performance. However, our results deviate from most United States studies wherein it is investigated and stated that mutual funds under-perform the market by the amount of expenses they charge. Journal:Pakistan Development Review Pages:863-876 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/863-876.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:863-876 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:T. N. Srinivasan Author-X-Name-First:T. N. Author-X-Name-Last:Srinivasan Author-Workplace-Name:Yale University, USA, and Senior Visiting Fellow, Stanford University, USA. Title:Productivity and Economic Growth in South Asia and China Abstract:This paper, begins with a discussion of the well-known issues involved in defining and measuring total factor productivity (TFP) and its contribution to growth (as well as the possible contribution of growth to productivity), the economic theory underpinning productivity, and policies that impact on and influence changes in productivity. It is followed by, first, a selective discussion of the studies on cross-country variation in productivity levels and growth, and then the experience of South Asia and China in a comparative perspective across the region and across the developing world. The share of South Asia in global GDP and its growth has remained stagnant since the early nineties. Disturbingly, except India, the rest of South Asia experienced a decline in TFP growth between 1989–95 and 1995–2003. The paper concludes that for achieving sustained productivity growth, well-functioning social and economic institutions are important, since through their incentive structure they influence, labour force participation, savings and accumulation of human and physical capital, risk-taking and innovation as well as efficiency of resource allocation. Public policies, particularly macro-economic, foreign trade and investment policies, matter a great deal. Journal:Pakistan Development Review Pages:479-503 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/479-503.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:479-503 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Karin Wanger Author-X-Name-First:Karin Author-X-Name-Last:Wanger Author-Workplace-Name:Fachhochschule fur Technik und Wertschaft, Berlin. Title:Productivity and Skills in Industry and Services-A Britian-German Comparison Abstract:It is widely accepted that the vocational and professional training system has a major impact on national competitiveness. In this paper a number of German-British studies in manufacturing and services are examined in order to show how skill systems have affected the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the two countries’ productivity performances. The studies have been conducted since the end of the 1980s to 2003 and have revealed specific links between vocational training, products and competitiveness on the basis of matched plant comparisons. The comparison between Britain and Germany has been chosen as these countries have very different national VET systems. The findings suggest that higher levels of apprenticeship training in German companies give them an advantage over their British counterparts with respect to flexibility to changes in markets, technology, quality and supply chains. The paper closes with a short discussion. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:411-438 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/411-438.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:411-438 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Abdul Qayyum Author-X-Name-First:Abdul Author-X-Name-Last:Qayyum Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Faiz Bilquees Author-X-Name-First:Faiz Author-X-Name-Last:Bilquees Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan Abstract:The P-star inflation model is based on the long-term quantity theory of money and puts together the long-term determinants of the price level and the short-run changes in current inflation. The P-star model-based indicator has replaced the previous monetary policy procedures in a number of countries because it offers by far more information and predictive power than monitoring movements in money supply and the rate of monetary growth. In this paper we used the P-star model to calculate the leading indicator of inflation, and also to test the forecasting performance of the P-star model-based leading indicator of inflation. The results of the study show that compared to the simple autoregressive model and the M2 growth augmented model, the P-star model can be used to obtain the leading indicator of inflation in Pakistan because it has additional information about the future rate of inflation. Therefore, this paper provides a useful tool to the policy-makers to assess the future movement of inflation in Pakistan. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:117-129 Volume:44 Issue:2 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume2/117-129.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:117-129 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Abdul Rashid Author-X-Name-First:Abdul Author-X-Name-Last:Rashid Author-Workplace-Name:Institute of Business Management, Korangi Creek, Karachi. Title:Public / Private Investment Linkages: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis Abstract:The link between public and private investment is investigated using annual data of the period from 1964–65 to 2004-05. The estimates based on structural cointegration approach indicate that both are cointegrated and public investment crowds in private investment. The study then used the Harris, et al. (2003) test to identify whether the existing cointegration vector is stationary or heteroscedastic. The findings of the analysis suggest that private investment can be enhanced by increasing public expenditures in infrastructure. The results of this study support the complementarity hypothesis, which states that stock of public capital crowds in private capital accumulation by increasing the return to private capital in Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:805-817 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/805-817.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:805-817 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Muhammad Sharif Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last:Sharif Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad. Author-Name:Umar Farooq Author-X-Name-First:Umar Author-X-Name-Last:Farooq Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad. Author-Name:Waqar Malik Author-X-Name-First:Waqar Author-X-Name-Last:Malik Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad. Title:Citrus Marketing in Punjab: Constraints and Potential for Improvement Abstract:This paper is based on primary data collected from a survey of citrus producers and market intermediaries from the major citrus producing area of Punjab. Data were collected from 125 producers to overview the existing citrus marketing system followed by the growers and to identify the socioeconomic and technical constraints for citrus marketing functionaries. The survey results revealed that more than 90 percent citrus producers sold harvesting rights of their orchards to contractors. It was found that the overall producer’s share in the consumer’s rupee was 35 percent, followed by the contractor and the retailer obtaining 32 and 20 percent respectively. Other indicators reported were net profit margins, duration and type of contract, method of contract price determination, mode of payment, and conduct of auctions. The results of deconstructing marketing margin analysis reveal that (i) profit absorbs most of the marketing margin, (ii) retailers receive the highest gross return while the rate of return is the highest with other marketing agents, and (iii) the highest rate of wastage occurs at the level of contractors. Efforts are required to control the post-harvest losses in citrus marketing. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:673-694 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/673-694.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:673-694 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:M. Ali Kemal Author-X-Name-First:M. Ali Author-X-Name-Last:Kemal Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name:Usman Qadir Author-X-Name-First:Usman Author-X-Name-Last:Qadir Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Real Exchange Rate, Exports, and Imports Movements: A Trivariate Analysis Abstract:The exchange rate exerts a strong influence on a country’s trade. It is depicted from the high correlation between the real exchange rate and exports (0.90) and that between the real exchange rate and imports (0.88). In the present-day scenario of falling levels of tariff and a reduced number of non-tariff barriers, the exchange rate has assumed a crucial role in influencing the trade deficit. Imports have a very significant association with exports as shown by the correlation between exports and imports (0.97). The increase in exports in the absence of surplus stocks requires an increase in production, which in turn requires capital and raw material. We analysed the long-run relationship and the short-run dynamics among the three variables. It is concluded that there exists a long-run relationship between real exchange rate, exports, and imports; and real exchange rate is negatively associated with the exports and positively associated with the imports. In the short-run, imports and exports adjust towards their equilibrium when there is disequilibrium. But the adjustment in the imports is greater than the adjustment in the exports. Moreover, exports do not respond to the shock caused by the real exchange rate, but imports respond to the sudden shock in the real exchange rate. The study ends up with the note that the sudden movements in the real exchange rate do not affect exports. Therefore, Pakistan should not worry about exchange rate shocks. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:177-195 Volume:44 Issue:2 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume1/177-195.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:177-195 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Saadia Refaqat Author-X-Name-First:Saadia Author-X-Name-Last:Refaqat Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics and International Development, University of Bath, UK. Title:Redistributive Impact of GST Tax Reform: Pakistan, 1990-2001 Abstract:This paper assesses the welfare impact of GST reform on Pakistani households between 1990 and 2001, a period that coincides with major GST reforms that have increased GST contribution to total tax revenue from 15 percent to 42 percent. As well as the tax burden having increased, we find that the distributional incidence has worsened; GST after-reform impact on welfare is proportional as compared to slight progressivity in the before-reform period. Our results, based on distributional characteristics developed by Feldstein (1972) and recently used by Newbery (1995), show that the welfare of the poor households has been reduced due to taxation of items such as sugar, vegetable ghee, and basic fuels, whereas rich households remain comparatively better off because most of the services remain out of GST tax net. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:841-862 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/841-862.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:841-862 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Rakesh Mohan Author-X-Name-First:Rakesh Author-X-Name-Last:Mohan Author-Workplace-Name:Reserve Bank of India, Bombay, India. Title:Reforms, Productivity, and Efficiency in Banking: The Indian Experience Abstract:India embarked on a strategy of economic reforms in the wake of a serious balance-ofpayments crisis in 1991. A central plank of the reforms was reform in the financial sector and, with banks being the mainstay of financial intermediation, the banking sector. The objective of the banking sector reforms was to promote a diversified, efficient and competitive financial system with the ultimate objective of improving the allocative efficiency of resources through operational flexibility, improved financial viability and institutional strengthening. Beginning from 1992, Indian banks were gradually exposed to greater domestic and international competition. India’s approach to banking reforms has been somewhat different from many other countries. Whereas there has not been privatisation of public sector banks, through a process of partial disinvestment a number of public sector banks have been listed in Stock Exchanges and have become subject to market discipline and greater transparency in this manner. Besides, newly opened banks from the private sector and entry and expansion of several foreign banks resulted in greater competition. Consequent to these developments, there has been a consistent decline in the share of public sector banks in total assets of commercial banks and a declining trend of Herfindahl’s concentration index. Improvements in efficiency of the banking system were reflected in a number of indicators, such as, a gradual reduction in cost of intermediation (defined as the ratio of operating expense to total assets) in the post reform period across various bank groups (barring foreign banks), and decline in the non-performing loans. As a result of these changes, there has been an all-around productivity improvement in the Indian banking sector. While the cost income-ratio (i.e., the ratio of operating expenses to total income less interest expense) as well as net interest margin (i.e., the excess of interest income over interest expense, scaled by total bank assets) of Indian banks showed a declining trend during the post-reform period, the business per employee of Indian banks increased over three-fold in real terms exhibiting an annual compound growth rate of nearly 9 percent. At the same time, the profit per employee increased more than five-fold, implying a compound growth of around 17 percent. Branch productivity also recorded concomitant improvements. Such productivity improvements in the banking sector could be driven by two factors: technological improvements, which expands the range of production possibilities and a catching up effect, as peer pressure amongst banks compels them to raise productivity levels. As far as the future of Indian banking is concerned, a number of issues, such as the credit to small and medium enterprises, customers’ interests and financial inclusion, reducing procedural formalities, listing of the public sector banks in the stock exchange and related market discipline are of paramount importance. Journal:Pakistan Development Review Pages:505-538 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/505-538.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:505-538 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Shabbar Jaffry Author-X-Name-First:Shabbar Author-X-Name-Last:Jaffry Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK. Author-Name:Yaseen Ghulam Author-X-Name-First:Yaseen Author-X-Name-Last:Ghulam Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK. Author-Name:Sean Pascoe Author-X-Name-First:Sean Author-X-Name-Last:Pascoe Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK. Author-Name:Joe Cox Author-X-Name-First:Joe Author-X-Name-Last:Cox Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Portsmouth Business School, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK. Title:Regulatory Changes and Productivity of the Banking Sector in the Indian Sub-Continent Abstract:This study seeks to measure changes in technical efficiency levels within the banking sectors of the Indian sub-continent: specifically India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, over the period 1993–2002. This study is done in the context of a number of sweeping deregulations across the sub-continent in the early 1990s, and the possible effect these may have had upon efficiency levels. A Malmquist Index of TFP change over the time-period in question is employed, along with a Tobit regression, in order to determine whether these significant measures of deregulation and financial modernisation have had the desired effect upon the Indian sub-continent in terms of technical efficiency levels. It is found that technical efficiency both increases and converges across the Indian sub-continent in response to deregulation. India and Bangladesh experienced immediate and sustained growth in technical efficiency, whereas Pakistan endured a reduction in efficiency during the middle years of the study, before rebounding to levels comparable to the rest of the sub-continent in the latter years of the study. These results indicate that the measures employed to modernise the financial sectors of these respective countries have had the desired effects upon levels of technical efficiency. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1021-1047 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1021-1047.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1021-1047 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Durr-e-Nayab Author-X-Name-First:Durr-e- Author-X-Name-Last:Nayab Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Reproductive Tract Infections among Women in Pakistan: An Urban Case Study Abstract:Reproductive tract infections (RTIs) among women—despite being common and having grave consequences—are not given much attention by policy-makers and health planners. The asymptomatic nature of most infections makes their detection and diagnosis difficult, making laboratory testing the most accurate method of bio-medical diagnosis. The present paper assesses the magnitude and nature of infections as diagnosed through laboratory testing and looks into the variation in magnitude and the nature of RTIs among women with different socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The aetiological rate of infection among women is found to be 24 percent, with the majority of these women testing positive for endogenous infections. Factors significantly increasing the likelihood of having an infection include intrauterine device use or getting a tubectomy, short inter-pregnancy intervals, and lower economic status of women. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:131-158 Volume:44 Issue:2 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume2/131-158.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:131-158 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Muhammad Zahid Siddique Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Zahid Author-X-Name-Last:Siddique Author-Workplace-Name:NU-FAST, Karachi. Author-Name:Javed Akbar Ansari Author-X-Name-First:Javed Akbar Author-X-Name-Last:Ansari Author-Workplace-Name:PAF-KIET, Karachi. Title:Skill Formation Strategies for Sustaining 'The Drive to Maturity' in Pakistan. Abstract:This paper outlines some problems in the articulation of a national skill formation strategy seeking to sustain ‘the drive to maturity’ of the Pakistan economy. We examine the thought of two economists—Adam Smith and Amartya Sen—to identify market-, society-, and state-related skills that they theorise as necessary for sustaining an economy’s ‘drive to maturity’. We then briefly outline Michel Foucault’s social theory to contextualise these skill formation paradigms within the institutional structure characteristic of mature capitalism. We argue that integration within global capitalist order leaves little room for the articulation of such a skill formation national strategy. Pakistan is therefore likely to share the fate of the majority of the under-developed countries which are experiencing de-skilling and detechonolgising Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:541-566 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/541-566.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:541-566 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Rashid Amjad Author-X-Name-First:Rashid Author-X-Name-Last:Amjad Author-Workplace-Name:Policy, Planning, Employment Sector, International Labour Organization, Geneva Title:Skills and Competitiveness: Can Pakistan Break Out of the Low-Level Skills Trap? Abstract:The paper argues that if Pakistan is to survive and prosper under the competitive conditions of the new global economy, then it must move away from its overwhelming dependence on “cottonomics” into more technology- and knowledge-based productswhere global growth is concentrated. For this to happen, it must break out of the “lowlevel skills trap”, which is the result of the very low levels of education and skills of its work force. It then poses the question whether the development of a well-educated and skilled labour force is sufficient for the country to graduate from labour-intensive to higher value-added, skill-intensive, technologically advanced sectors. The paper argues that while this is essential, the real challenge is to change the mind-set and develop institutions which recognise the value of investing in people and provide dignity, respect, and a fair deal for working men and women. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:387-409 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/387-409.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:387-409 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Suleman Aziz Lodhi Author-X-Name-First:Suleman Aziz Author-X-Name-Last:Lodhi Author-Workplace-Name:National College of Business Administraion and Economics, Lahore. Author-Name:Rukhsana Kalim Author-X-Name-First:Rukhsana Author-X-Name-Last:Kalim Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, University of Management and Technology, Lahore. Title:Strategic Directions for Developing an Islamic Banking System Abstract:It is proposed that Islamic banking does not merely imply the interest-free banking system; rather, it is the banking in consonance with the ethos and value system of Islam and governed by the principles and rules laid down by Islamic Shariah. The question arises as to why the Islamic financing system has not been fully realised in Pakistan. And what directions should the Government take for establishing a sustainable Islamic banking system? The study is conducted according to the strategic management approach, exploring a practical route for developing growth-oriented Islamic banking system in Pakistan. Critical questions are raised to analyse the dynamics of Islamic banks in Pakistan. Then using a questionnaire, senior bankers are interviewed to add their insight. The study finally recommends strategic directions for developing a growth-oriented Islamic banking system in the country. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1003-1020. Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1003-1020.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1003-1020 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Muhammad Azeem Khan Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Azeem Author-X-Name-Last:Khan Author-Workplace-Name:Policy Analysis and R&D Component, National IPM Programme, NARC, Islamabad. Author-Name:Muhammad Iqbal Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last:Iqbal Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Sustainable Cotton Production Through Skill Development among Farmers: Evidence from Khairpur District of Sindh, Pakistan. Abstract:This study on farmers’ training in environment-friendly production practices for cotton crop was conducted in the Khairpur District of Sindh province. Data used in this study comprises baseline and post- IPM Farmer Field School (FFS) impact surveys conducted during 2001 and 2003 respectively. The programme impacts were estimated on gross margins and changes in farmers’ attitude towards environment and biodiversity. The effect of training on social recognition of farmers, their experimentation abilities, and decision-making skills were also examined. Beside single difference comparisons of change in production practices between trained and non-trained farmers, the difference in difference (DD) method was also used for comparisons among FFS farmers, exposed farmers, and unexposed farmers from controlled villages. The stochastic production frontier model incorporating inefficiency effects is also estimated to analyse the impact of farmers’ training (through FFS) on productivity and efficiency at cotton farms in the area under study. The results show that better cotton yield and reduction in the cost of pesticides and fertiliser inputs enabled FFS farmers to fetch significantly higher gross margins (US$ 391/ha) than non-FFS (US$ 151/ha) and Control farms (US$ 25/ha). The total application of pesticide chemicals was largely reduced (44 percent) on FFS farms. The cost of inefficiency at FFS farms was lower (23.71 percent) as compared to those on non-FFS farms (30.50 percent), which implies that FFS farmers were able to maintain a higher level of technical efficiency. It is concluded that the FFS approach is not only cost efficient but also improves farm-level technical efficiency. Information generated through Agro-ecosystem analysis on pest and predator dynamics helps farmers to understand pest-predator interaction to allow nature to work with fewer or most appropriate interventions. A wellplanned technical back-up support mechanism is recommended to be evolved through integrating the research system into farmer-led experimentation. The programme achievements show that the FFS approach in Pakistan has furthered from only crop management to systems management and community Journal:ThePakistan Development Review Pages:695-716 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/695-716.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:695-716 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Heman D. Lohano Author-X-Name-First:Heman D. Author-X-Name-Last:Lohano Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Agricultural Economics, Sindh Agriculture Economics, tando Jam, Sindh. Author-Name:Fateh M. Mari Author-X-Name-First:Fateh M. Author-X-Name-Last:Mari Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Agricultural Economics, Sindh Agriculture Economics, tando Jam, Sindh. Author-Name:Rajab A. Memon Author-X-Name-First:Rajab A. Author-X-Name-Last:Memon Author-Workplace-Name:Center of Rural Development Communication, University of Sindh, Jamshoro, Sindh. Title:Testing Onion Market Integration in Pakistan Abstract:This paper analyses spatial market integration using monthly wholesale real price of onion in four regional markets located in each of the four provinces of Pakistan. Unit root test indicates that the price series in each location are stationary, and the series are represented as autoregressive model for eachlocation. The error correction model results show that the regional markets of onion have strong price linkages, and thus are spatially integrated. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:717-728 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/717-728.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:717-728 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Karim Khan Author-X-Name-First:Karim Author-X-Name-Last:Khan Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Isalamabad. Author-Name:Eatzaz Ahmed Author-X-Name-First:Eatzaz Author-X-Name-Last:Ahmed Author-Workplace-Name:Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title:The Demand for International Reserves: A Case Study of Pakistan Abstract:Reserves-holding policy has been a main area of concern for policy-makers, researchers, and planners since the beginning of the Bretton Woods system. As a result, issues related to the equilibrium of international reserves, its determinants, and the departure from equilibrium have been widely discussed in the debates of economic policy-making. In spite of its importance, no serious attempt has been made to work on the determinants of international reserves in the case of Pakistan. Therefore, we have made an endeavour to determine the long-run and short-run determinants of Pakistan’s international reserves-holding and, hence, we hope to contribute to the literature on reserves in the case of Pakistan. We have also considered the role of monetary disequilibrium in the short-run, along with the other determinants in the explanation of international reserves-holding. In the context of cointegration-error correction framework, we have analysed Pakistan’s reserve demand using the quarterly data over the period 1982:1-2003-2 and found that there exists a stable long-run reserves demand function in the case of Pakistan. The results also confirm the role of domestic monetary disequilibrium for changes in reserves in the short-run Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:939-957 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/939-957.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:939-957 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:A. R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First:A. R. Author-X-Name-Last:Kemal Author-Workplace-Name:Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title:Skill Development in Pakistan Abstract: Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:349-357 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/349-357.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:349-357 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Robert E. Evenson Author-X-Name-First:Robert E. Author-X-Name-Last:Evenson Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Yale University. USA Title:The Green Revolution and the Gene Revolution in Pakistan: Policy Implications Abstract:Pakistan achieved high levels of Green Revolution Modern Variety (GRMV) adoption in the Green Revolution. Pakistan out-performed India and Bangladesh in the Green Revolution. Only China, among major countries, out-performed Pakistan in the Green Revolution. Pakistan does not have the food safety and environmental risk studies in place to support a regulatory environment for biotechnology. In effect, Pakistan is following the “precautionary principle” and applying it to science policy. This paper argues that this is a mistake. Pakistan is paying a “double penalty” for its inability to develop the regulatory systems required to take advantage of genetically modified (GM) crops. Not only does it lose the cost reductions enabled by GM crops, but because other countries have adopted GM crops, world prices are lower as a result and affect Pakistan’s export crops. Journal:Pakistan Development Review Pages:359-386 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/359-386.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:359-386 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Taro Abe Author-X-Name-First:Taro Author-X-Name-Last:Abe Author-Workplace-Name:Faculty of Economics, Nagoya Gakuin University, Kamishinano, Seto, Aichi, Japan. Title:The Northern Immigration Policy in a North-South Economy Model Abstract:Wooton (1985) considered the immigration into Findlay (1980)’s North-South model and examined how the north’s relaxation of immigration policy influences income in both regions. Based on Wooton (1985), this paper has performed the same analysis assuming there to be a complete capital mobility between the north and the south. The major findings are as follows: In the long-run, the relaxation of the north’s immigration policy does not affect the per capita income of both the northern labour and immigrant workers. When the north practises a discriminative redistribution policy against the immigrant workers, the per capita income in the north will increase because redistribution of income from the immigrant workers to the northern labour as a result of the policy relaxation is taking place. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:197-218 Volume:44 Issue:2 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume2/197-218.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:197-218 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:J. O. Olusi Author-X-Name-First:J. O. Author-X-Name-Last:Olusi Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Author-Name:M. A. Olagunju Author-X-Name-First:M. A. Author-X-Name-Last:Olagunju Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Title:The Primary Sectors of the Economy and the Dutch Disease in Nigeria Abstract:This study examines whether the Dutch Disease—a resource boom leading to the decline of the erstwhile tradable sector—is present in Nigeria in the light of the rejection of the Dutch Disease thesis in other studies on Nigeria. Quarterly data for our variables of interest were predominantly sourced from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF. The data are analysed through the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling consisting of impulse response functions and variance decomposition analyses. Our results show that the Dutch Disease was diagnosed, albeit, as a delayed occurrence. This suggests that the government should lay more emphasis on the agricultural sector hitherto not given deserved attention. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:159-175 Volume:44 Issue:2 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume2/159-175.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:159-175 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Asma Hyder Author-X-Name-First:Asma Author-X-Name-Last:Hyder Author-Workplace-Name:NUST Institute of Management Sciences, Rawalpindi. Author-Name:Barry Reilly Author-X-Name-First:Barry Author-X-Name-Last:Reilly Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, University of Sussex, UK. Title:The Public and Private Sector Pay Gap in Pakistan: A Quantile Regression Analysis Abstract:This paper examines the magnitude of public/private wage differentials in Pakistan using data drawn from the 2001-02 Pakistan Labour Force Survey. As in many other countries, public sector workers in Pakistan tend both to have higher average pay and education levels as compared to their private sector counterparts. In addition, the public sector in Pakistan has both a more compressed wage distribution and a smaller gender pay gap than that prevailing in the private sector. Our empirical analysis suggests that about two-fifths of the raw differential in average hourly wages between the two sectors is accounted for by differentials in average characteristics. The estimated public sector mark-up, ceteris paribus, is of the order of 49 percent and is substantial by the standards of developed economies. The quantile regression estimates suggest that the mark-up was found to decline monotonically with movement up the conditional wage distribution. In particular, the premium at the 10th percentile was estimated at 92 percent as compared to a more modest 20 percent at the 90th percentile. Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:271-306 Volume:44 Issue:3 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume3/271-306.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:271-306 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Abid Hameed Author-X-Name-First:Abid Author-X-Name-Last:Hameed Author-Workplace-Name:Fatima Jinnah Women's University, Rawalpindi. Author-Name:Muhammad Ali Chaudhary Author-X-Name-First:Muhammad Ali Author-X-Name-Last:Chaudhary Author-Workplace-Name:Fatima Jinnah Women's University, Rawalpindi. Author-Name:Kiran Younas Khan Author-X-Name-First:Kiran Author-X-Name-Last:Younas Khan Author-Workplace-Name:IMF, Washington, D. C. Title:The Growth Impact of Exports in South Asian Countries Abstract:This study investigates the impact of exports on the economic growth of the South Asian countries. Specifically, it examines if the marginal factor productivities are different in the export and nonexport sectors, and whether the export sectors of these economies generate positive production externalities. The required analysis is based on panel data on six South Asian countries for the period 1973-2002. Following Feder (1982), we have used the fixed effects approach for necessary estimations. The results show that the level and reallocation of resources particularly in favour of the relatively more efficient export sector affect growth positively. However, externalities arising from the export sector of these countries are not found as growth-enhancing due partly to their reliance on the production of lowtech labour-intensive products. As such, the results point out that these countries can accelerate their Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:901-919fu0- Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/901-919.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:901-919 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Shujat Ali Author-X-Name-First:Shujat Author-X-Name-Last:Ali Author-Workplace-Name:Chief Economist, Planning and Development Bord, Punjab. Title:Total Factor Productivity Growth and Agricultural Research and Extension: An Analysis of Pakistan's Agriculture, 1960-1996 Abstract:Pakistan’s agriculture has grown rapidly since the 1960s, with an average annual growth of about 4 percent over the four decades till the end of the century. Agricultural growth at this rate was sustained by the technological progress embodied in the high-yielding varieties of grains and cotton, with supporting public investment in irrigation, agricultural research and extension (R&E), and physical infrastructure. This rate of agricultural growth has significantly contributed to the overall economic growth of about 6 percent per year during this period. Sustaining this performance presents a considerable challenge for the public policy framework for agriculture, not the least for the agricultural research and extension system in Pakistan. This study analyses the impact of R&E investment on TFP growth in Pakistan’s agriculture within a distributed lag framework. The estimation of the productivity-R&E relationship with an Almon lag provided evidence of a strong relationship, explaining 96 percent of the variation in the TFP index. The marginal internal rate of return on R&E investment is estimated at 88 percent. This rate of return may look unusually high but it is well within the range of returns estimated in the context of developing and developed countries. The high rate of return is an indicator not only of under-investment in R&E but also of the constraints on research and extension services that prevent optimal performance Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:729-746 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/729-746.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:729-746 Template-Type:ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Bushra Yasmin Author-X-Name-First:Bushra Author-X-Name-Last:Yasmin Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Author-Name:Aliya H. Khan Author-X-Name-First:Aliya Author-X-Name-Last:H. Khan Author-Workplace-Name:Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title:Trade Liberalisation and Labour Demand Elasticities: Empirical Evidence for Pakistan Abstract:In this era of trade liberalisation, when most developing countries are following export-oriented policies, the impact of trade liberalisation on labour markets has become an important area to explore. The experience of trade liberalisation in developing countries is quite varied, but understanding the effects of openness on their labour markets is a complex and demanding task as these countries have undergone significant structural changes and adjustments from 1980s onward. In accordance with standard trade theory, developing countries should specialise in the production of labour-intensive goods, thus increasing the relative demand for this factor. Pakistan’s trade policy has also declared exports as an important and leading sector for employment generation. However, so far, little evidence is available on the issue of trade liberalisation and labour markets which can help work out the trade-labour linkages for Pakistan. In that context, the present study is an attempt to investigate these linkages. Among various paths through which trade liberalisation is channelled to the labour market, one is that of labour demand elasticity. It is expected that trade openness might induce an increase in elasticity via a scale effect due to the increased competition in the output market, and via a substitution effect generated by expanding a firm’s production possibility set to include additional input. The main hypothesis of this study is that trade liberalisation might lead to an increase in labour demand elasticity and is expected to have a favourable impact on the employment generation in Pakistan. The study is carried out for labour engaged in the manufacturing sector in Pakistan, using panel data approach for the years 1970-1995. A labour demand equation is obtained from the solution of a firm’s cost minimisation problem. The impact of trade liberalisation on employment is not restricted to a wage elasticity effect; it also allows for a direct effect with globalisation acting as a demand shifter. Overall, we find a positive significant effect of trade liberalisation on labour demand elasticities. As Pakistan has adopted a stance in favor of trade liberalisation over time, and the effective rate of protection has reduced very sharply since the early 1990s, it is thus revealed from the results that there has been a consequential shift from capital-intensive production to more labour-intensive production that is in keeping with the perceived static comparative advantage, and, in turn, is expected to lead to increased employment generation because of the greater incentives afforded to labour-intensive Journal:The Pakistan Development Review Pages:1067-1089 Volume:44 Issue:4 Year:2005 File-URL:http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2005/Volume4/1067-1089.pdf File-Format:Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:4:p:1067-1089