Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nadeem Ul Haque
Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem Ul
Author-X-Name-Last: Haque
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Inflation Everywhere is a Monetary Phenomenon: An Introductory Note
Classification-JEL: E31
Keywords: Inflation
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 179-183
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/179-183.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:179-183

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohsin S. Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohsin
Author-X-Name-Last: S. Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund.
Author-Name: Axel Schimmelpfennig
Author-X-Name-First: Axel
Author-X-Name-Last: Schimmelpfennig
Author-Workplace-Name: Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund.
Title: Inflation in Pakistan
Abstract: This paper examines the factors that explain and help forecast inflation in Pakistan.
A simple inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money
supply, credit to the private sector), an activity variable, the interest and the exchange
rates, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor. The model is estimated
for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that
monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with
a lag of about one year. Private sector credit growth and broad money growth are also
good leading indicators of inflation which can be used to forecast future inflation
developments.
Classification-JEL: E31
Keywords: Inflation, Pakistan
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 185-202
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/185-202.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:185-202

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan
Abstract: This paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the excess money supply
growth and inflation in Pakistan and to test the validity of the monetarist stance that
inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The results from the correlation analysis indicate that
there is a positive association between money growth and inflation. The money supply
growth at first-round affects real GDP growth and at the second round it affects inflation in
Pakistan. The important finding from the analysis is that the excess money supply growth
has been an important contributor to the rise in inflation in Pakistan during the study period,
thus supporting the monetarist proposition that inflation in Pakistan is a monetary
phenomenon. This may be due to the loose monetary policy adopted by the State Bank of
Pakistan to show the high priority of the growth objective. The important policy implication
is that inflation in Pakistan can be cured by a sufficiently tight monetary policy. The
formulation of monetary policy must consider development in the real and financial sector
and treat these sectors as constraints on the policy.
Classification-JEL: E31, C22, C32
Keywords: Money Supply, Inflation, Growth, Quantity Theory, Monetory Policy, Pakistan
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 203-212
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/203-212.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:203-212

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ali Kemal
Author-X-Name-First: M. Ali
Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?
Abstract: The paper finds that an increase in money supply over the long-run results in a
higher rate of inflation and thus provides support for the quantity theory of money. It
establishes that inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon. However, the money
supply does not instantly influence the price levels; the impact of money supply on
inflation has a considerable lag of about 9 months. While the study shows that the money
supply works through the system in less than a year, it also points out that the system
takes rather long to converge to equilibrium if shocks appear in any of the three variables,
viz., GDP, money supply, and prices.
Classification-JEL: N15, N31, E51
Keywords: Growth, Inflation, Money Supply, QTM
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 213-220
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/213-220.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:213-220

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John W. Mellor
Author-X-Name-First: John W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Mellor
Author-Workplace-Name: John Mellor Associates, Inc., USA.
Author-Name: Chandrashekhar Ranade
Author-X-Name-First: Chandrashekhar
Author-X-Name-Last: Ranade
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Rhode Island, USA.
Title: Why Does Agricultural Growth Dominate Poverty Reduction in Low- and Middle-income Countries?
Abstract: This paper provides an explanation of the relation between agricultural growth
and poverty reduction for open economies with full employment. The analysis also
shows that the poverty-reducing impact of agricultural growth in an open economy is
far greater if there is unemployed labour or if the supply of labour is highly elastic—
conditions often thought to prevail even in open economies. The model draws attention
to the critical role of the rural non-tradable sector in poverty reduction. While ample
data are available to show that sector to have a large share of employment, even
relative to agriculture itself, data for other variables for the sector such as the share of
GDP, labour intensity, price, and income elasticities of demand are not available.
Thus, an important contribution of the paper is to establish the need for such data if the
processes of poverty reduction are to be understood.
Classification-JEL: Q01, I30
Keywords: Agricultural Growth, Poverty, Developing Countries, Open Economy
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 221-240
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/221-240.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:221-240

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Arvind Virmani
Author-X-Name-First: Arvind
Author-X-Name-Last: Virmani
Author-Workplace-Name: Planning Commission, India.
Title: Poverty and Hunger in India: What is Needed to Eliminate Them
Abstract: There is a widespread impression among the Indian intelligentsia, foreign scholars,
and residents of developed/rich countries that India’s economic growth has not reduced
poverty, that globalisation has worsened poverty and/or income distribution, and that
there are hundreds of millions of hungry people in India. These arguments are buttressed
by recourse to India’s ranking on several social indicators. Esoteric debates about the
comparability of survey data and gaps between NSS and NAS add to the confusion and
allow ideologues to believe and assert whatever information suits the argument. What
are the basic facts about poverty, income distributions, and hunger at an aggregate level?
This paper reviews the available data and debates on this subject and comes to a
commonsense view. It then tries to link some of the outcomes to the policy framework
and programmes of the government. The paper finds that India’s poverty ratio of around 22
percent in 1999-2000 is in line with that observed in countries at similar levels of per capita
income. The ratio is relatively high because India is a relatively poor/ low-income country, i.e.,
with low average income. 90 percent of the countries in the world have a higher per capita
(average) income than India. The number of the poor is very high because India’s population
is very large, the second-highest in the world. India’s income distribution as measured by the
Gini co-efficient is better than three-fourths of the countries of the world. The consumption
share of the poorest 10 percent of the population is the sixth best in the world.
Where India has failed as a nation is in improving its basic social indicators like
literacy and mortality rates. Much of the failure is a legacy of the three decades of Indian
socialism (till 1979-80). The rate of improvement of most indicators has accelerated
during the market period (starting in 1980-81). The gap between its level and that of
global benchmarks is still wide and its global ranking on most of these social parameters
remains very poor. This is the result of government failure. The improvement in social
indicators has not kept pace with economic growth and poverty decline, and this has led
to increasing interstate disparities in growth and poverty.
Classification-JEL: I3, I32, I38
Keywords: Hunger, Poverty, Public Goods, Public and Quasi-Public Goods and Services, Basic Educaion, Public Health, Sanitation
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 241-259
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/241-259.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:241-259

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abedullah
Author-X-Name-First: Abedullah
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.
Author-Name: Mubaraik Ali
Author-X-Name-First: Mubaraik
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali
Author-Workplace-Name: Asian Vegetable Research and Development Center (AVRDC), Taiwan.
Title: Quantifying the Extent and Nature of Risk in Alternative Cropping Patterns in Claveria, Philippines
Abstract: The study develops a formulation to decompose variability in profit into price and
production effects. The production effect is further segregated into management and
weather effects. The formulation is used to compare and decompose risk in the profit of
three existing cropping patterns (corn-corn, corn-fallow, and rice-fallow) in the rainfed
areas of Claveria, northern Mindanao, Philippines. High variability and low profitability
of the crops in a more risky season (dry in our case) can limit cropping intensities in
rainfed areas. However, intensification of the crops during the less risky season (wet in
our case) can provide the necessary stake to invest in the risky season crops. Although
weather is the dominant factor in explaining total variability, this should not be
interpreted as a general rule for all agricultural environments. In an environment where
input intensity is high, and input-output markets are inefficient, management and price
effects can dominate the weather effect.
Classification-JEL: Q12
Keywords: Cropping Pattern, Weather Risk, Management Risk, Price Risk, Profit, Expected Utility
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 261-280
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/261-280.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:261-280

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gustavo Anriquez
Author-X-Name-First: Gustavo
Author-X-Name-Last: Anriquez
Author-Workplace-Name: FAO, Rome.
Author-Name: Alberto Valdes
Author-X-Name-First: Alberto
Author-X-Name-Last: Valdes
Author-Workplace-Name: Santiago, Chile.
Title: Determinants of Farm Revenue in Pakistan
Abstract: Will small farm viability decline with the reduction of average farm size in
Pakistan? This paper addresses the determinants of rural household and farm-related
income. Using the 2001 PIDE Household Survey, the approach developed captures the
potential interactions between farm returns and household, farm, and factor market
characteristics (schooling, family size, land tenure and operational size, access to water,
credit, and capital). Econometric results show: (a) returns to additional schooling and the
revenue elasticity of operated acres increase with farm size; (b) medium and large farm
renters would be willing to pay more than observed rents, implying an incentive to
increase farm size at the prevailing rental values; (c) owner-operated farms, landowners
who also leases in, and fixed rental tenants earn higher revenues than sharecropping
tenants. The difference, however, between landowner/fix-renter income and sharecropper
income varies with family and farm size, as well as water use. While these results favour
farm size increase, the results also show that off-farm and non-farm income sources are
relatively more important for small farmers, contributing to their viability.
Classification-JEL: Q13, Q12, Q15
Keywords: Pakistan, Land Markets, Rural Factor Markets, Revenue Function
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 281-301
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/281-301.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:281-301

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ilhan Can Ozen
Author-X-Name-First: Ilhan Can
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozen
Author-Workplace-Name: The Johns Hopkins University, baltimore MD. 21218, USA.
Author-Name: Sean M. Zeigler
Author-X-Name-First: Sean M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Zeigler
Author-Workplace-Name: The Johns Hopkins University, baltimore MD. 21218, USA.
Title: Translating Khan on Singer: Global Solvent Versus Local Interpretation
Abstract: This work focuses on Peter Singer’s book, One World: The Ethics of Globalisation,
and a reading of it recently presented by M. Ali Khan. Khan’s response to Singer is
acutely critical, but ultimately fails to situate Singer’s offering in its proper historical
context. In this sense, Khan’s response is not sufficient. We demonstrate that Singer’s
offering is permeated by a universalising discourse marked by asymmetric power
relations clearly described by Edward Said in Orientalism and, more surprisingly, by
Fyodor Dostoyevsky in The Possessed. We illustrate how Singer’s narrative and the
counter-narrative of Khan represent a continuation of a longer historical disputation
between the West and the East.
Classification-JEL: J7, B31
Keywords: Orientalism, Globalisation, Economy, Language, Translation, Communication, Domination, Dialogue, Local, Global, Community
Journal: The Pakistan Development Review
Pages: 303-314
Volume: 45
Issue: 2
Year: 2006
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume2/303-314.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:2:p:303-314