Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ilhan Niaz Author-X-Name-First: Ilhan Author-X-Name-Last: Niaz Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Title: A Survey of Proprietorship, Continental Bureaucratic Empires, and the Culture of Power, in South Asian History Abstract: This historical survey examines the relationship between proprietorship, state structure, and cultures of power, over the broad expanse of South Asian History. In doing so the focus is kept upon the major Indian empires (Maurya, Delhi Sultanate, Mughal, British). The paper maintains that in continental bureaucratic empires that manifest arbitrary cultures of power the rulers perceive the state and the country as a personal estate. Consequently, the level of insecurity even within the elite, which can be dispossessed by the ruler, is remarkably high. Pervasive insecurity means that the incentives to work, save, and invest, are greatly diminished, and the creativity and enterprise that sustain qualitative improvement in the economic and technological base are by and large lacking. This pattern manifests itself more or less consistently until the British period when, for a number of reasons, private property, the rule of law, and other reforms are introduced. A new dynamic gains momentum an the basis for a modern economy are laid. Classification-JEL: N00 Keywords: Proprietorship, Culture of Power, Economic History Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 327-339 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/327-339.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:327-339 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Madhavi Bokil Author-X-Name-First: Madhavi Author-X-Name-Last: Bokil Author-Workplace-Name: University of California, USA. Author-Name: Axel Schimmelpfennig Author-X-Name-First: Axel Author-X-Name-Last: Schimmelpfennig Author-Workplace-Name: Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund. Title: Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan Abstract: This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan’s economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages. Classification-JEL: E31, E37 Keywords: Inflation, Forecasting, Pakistan Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 341-368 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/341-368.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:341-368 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khurshid M. Kiani Author-X-Name-First: Khurshid Author-X-Name-Last: M. Kiani Author-Workplace-Name: University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Kingston, Jamaica, West Indies. Title: Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index Abstract: We investigate the persistence in monthly KSE100 excess stock returns over the Treasury bills rates using non-Gaussian state space or unobservable component model with stable distributions and volatility persistence. Results from our non-Gaussian state space model, which is an improvement over Conard and Kaul (1988), show that the conditional distribution has a stable of 1.748 and normality is rejected even after accounting for GARCH. There exists a statistically significant predictable component in the KSE 100 excess stock returns. The optimal predictor in the unconditional expectation of the series is estimated to be 0.18 percent per annum. An evidence of highly nonconstant scales in different periods of time exhibits a tendency towards stock market crashes which invites remedial policy action. Classification-JEL: C22, C53, G14 Keywords: Stock Return Predictability, Unobserved Components, Fat Tails, Stable Distributions Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 369-381 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/369-381.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:369-381 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rizwana Siddiqui Author-X-Name-First: Rizwana Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui Author-Workplace-Name: Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Author-Name: A. R. Kemal Author-X-Name-First: A. R. Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal Author-Workplace-Name: Pakisatn Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. Title: Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis Abstract: This paper explores the impact of two shocks, trade liberalisation policies and decline in remittances, on welfare and poverty in Pakistan. It begins by reviewing the economy, which reveals that during the Nineties although import tariffs were reduced by 55 percent, poverty however remained higher in this period than in the Eighties. At the same time, Pakistan has experienced a slow down in the inflow of remittances, which reduces the incomes of households and puts pressure on the exchange rate resulting in reduction in the inflow of imports despite a reduction in import duties. Thus, in the absence of the effects of decline in remittances, the analysis of the impact of trade liberalisation policies may render biased results. This study overcomes this constriction and analyses the impact of trade liberalisation policies in the absence and presence of decline in remittances in a CGE framework with all the features necessary for trade policy analysis with poverty and remittances linkages. The simulation results show that a decline in remittances reduces the gains from trade liberalisation. The negative impact of remittance decline dominates the positive impact of trade liberalisation in urban areas. But, the positive impact of trade liberalisation dominates the negative impact of a decline in remittances in the case of rural areas. Poverty rises in Pakistan as a whole. It shows that the decline in remittance inflows is a major contributory factor in explaining the increase in poverty in Pakistan during the Nineties. Classification-JEL: O53, O24, C68, I32 Keywords: Pakistan, Remittances, Trade Policy, CGE, Poverty Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 383-415 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/383-415.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:383-415 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kazuhiro Testu Author-X-Name-First: Kazuhiro Author-X-Name-Last: Testu Author-Workplace-Name: Shizuoka University, Ohya, Japan. Title: Tourism Promotion and Regional Development in Low-income Developing Countries Abstract: There are not so many papers that the economic effects of tourism are examined in a general equilibrium framework. The features of those papers are that they assume that tourism is regarded as non-tradable goods and services and that tourism is consumed by not only foreign tourists but also domestic residents. However, since our purpose of this paper is to examine the economic effects of tourism promotion on low-income developing countries, we assume that most domestic residents cannot afford to consume tourism, which is considered as a luxury good. Under such assumptions, we examine the effects of two tourism promotion policies on a developing economy. The main result we obtain is that both the policies improve the standard of living for the farmers in a rural region while they worse the standard of living for the workers who are employed in an urban region. Classification-JEL: F11, O12 Keywords: Tourism, Regional Development, Low-income Developing Countries Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 417-424 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/417-424.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:417-424 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jahangir Khan Achakzai Author-X-Name-First: Jahangir Khan Author-X-Name-Last: Achakzai Author-Workplace-Name: Balochistan University, Quetta. Title: Intra-ECO Trade: A Potential Region for Pakistan’s Future Trade Abstract: A standard gravity model was applied to estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Pakistan and the nine ECO member countries. The major issue in this analysis is to explore that Intra- ECO trade has great potential for Pakistan and that it got lower share than its potential. The results from the gravity model confirm that ECO has a positive and significant impact on intra-regional trade. It suggests that intra-regional trade is lower than what would be predicted by the gravity equation, suggesting greater scope for regional integration among the ECO member countries. This is especially the case between countries that have a common geographical border. The privilege of geography and the existence of trade preferences among ECO members could be expanded to cover potential trade to neighboring countries. Classification-JEL: F10, F12, F15 Keywords: International Trade, Pakistan’s Trade, Gravity Model Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 425-437 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/425-437.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:425-437 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Haroon Jamal Author-X-Name-First: Haroon Author-X-Name-Last: Jamal Author-Workplace-Name: Social Policy and Development Centre, Karachi. Title: Does Inequality Matter for Poverty Reduction? Evidence from Pakistan’s Poverty Trends Abstract: The paper explores the linkages between poverty, growth and inequality in the context of Pakistan. Time series macro data are used for the period 1979 to 2002. Consistent poverty and inequality measures are interpolated to facilitate the estimation of poverty elasticity with respect to growth and inequality in a multivariate regression framework. The paper also attempts to find out macroeconomic and structural correlates of inequality. The empirical findings—high poverty elasticity with respect to inequality measures—confirm the importance of inequality in poverty reducing effort. Inflation, sectoral wage gap, and terms of trade in favour of manufacturing exacerbate inequality, while progressive taxation, investment and development expenditure on social services play a significant role in reducing inequality. The results also indicate a positive correlation between per capita GDP and income inequality. Classification-JEL: D31, D63, I32 Keywords: Pakistan, Poverty Trend, Income Distribution, Poverty Elasticity with respect to Growth and Inequality Journal: The Pakistan Development Review Pages: 439-459 Volume: 45 Issue: 3 Year: 2006 File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2006/Volume3/439-459.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:45:y:2006:i:3:p:439-459