Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eatzaz Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Eatzaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Muhammad Arshad
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Arshad
Author-Workplace-Name: International School of Industrial Business Management, Shanghai University, China
Title: Household Budget Analysis for Pakistan under Varying the Parameter Approach
Abstract: Using micro-level household data for rural and urban Pakistan, this
study estimates Engel equations for 22 commodity groups with quadratic
spline specification, in which the number and locations of knots are
determined through a search procedure. The study finds that the resulting
flexibility produces many interesting patterns of changes in the
classification of goods into necessities and luxuries across income
ranges. This suggests that a uniform tax structure will have varying
implications for budget allocation and welfare of households belonging
to different income classes. This information can be gainfully utilised in
preparing income transfer policies that could supplement uniform tax
regimes.
Length: 29 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-41.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:41
Classification-JEL: D12
Keywords: Consumer Economics, Empirical Analysis
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:41

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Akram
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Akram
Author-Workplace-Name: International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Faheem Jehangir Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Faheem Jehangir
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Title: Public Provision of Education and Government Spending in Pakistan
Abstract: The study has been carried out to measure the incidence of government
spending on education in Pakistan at the provincial (both rural and urban) level,
using the primary data of the Pakistan Social Standard Living Measures Survey
(PSLM), 2004-2005, and by employing the three-step Benefit Incidence
Approach methodology. The paper reviews the national policies emphasising
provision of education in Pakistan, as well as the trend in coverage and public
sector spending on education facilities in Pakistan. The study examines the
inequalities in resource distribution and service provision in relation to the
government education expenditure. The rural areas of Pakistan are the more
disadvantaged in the provision of the education facilities. Overall, the
expenditure on the education sector is progressive, both at the regional and the
provincial levels. However, variation exists in the shares of different income
groups’ benefit from the provision of educational facilities created by public
expenditure.
Length: 35 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-40.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:40
Classification-JEL: H52, H53, I21, I22, I28, I38, O18
Keywords: Education, Public Expenditure, Public Policy, Gini Coefficient, Concentration Coefficient, Benefit Incidence Approach
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:40

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sajawal Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Sajawal
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Measures of Monetary Policy Stance: The Case of Pakistan
Abstract: In this paper we construct two measures of the monetary policy stance.
The stance of monetary policy, regarded as a quantitative measure of whether
the policy is too tight, neutral, or too loose relative to objectives of stable prices
and output growth, is useful and important for at least two reasons. First, it
helps the authority (central bank) to determine the course of monetary policy
needed to keep the objective (goals) within the target range. Secondly, a
quantitative measure of the stance is important for an empirical study of the
transmission of monetary policy actions through the economy. Measuring the
stance of the monetary policy free from any criticism, however, is not an easy
task. As pointed out by Gecchetti (1994), “there seems to be no way to measure
monetary actions that does not raise serious objections”.
Our results show that an individual coefficient Monetary Condition Index
(MCI) performs better than both the summarised MCI coefficient and the
Overall measure proposed by Bernanke and Mihov (1998). The results show that
in the 21-year period from 1984 to 2004, the demand shocks have dominated for
about eight years. The MCI (IS-Individual coefficient) can explain six of them.
However, it indicates the negative demand shock in two years as neutral. The
other two measures, however, fail to capture demand shocks most of the time.
This analysis suggests that the MCI (IS-Individual coefficient) plays an
important role in determining output and inflation when the economy is not
dominated by supply shocks. The results also show that supply shocks are
dominant in the case of Pakistan. Furthermore, the exchange rate channel is
more important than the interest rate channel.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-39.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:39
Classification-JEL: E42, E52, E58
Keywords: Monetary Policy Measures, Monetary Condition Index, Composite Measures
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:39

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Rizwana Siddiqui
Author-X-Name-First: Rizwana
Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqui
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Dynamic Effects of Agriculture Trade in the Context of Domestic and Global Liberalisation: A CGE Analysis for Pakistan
Abstract: This paper studies dynamic effects of agriculture trade in the context of
domestic and global liberalisation. Being the largest sector of the economy, the
agriculture sector contributes substantially to the growth process. Using a small
CGE model for Pakistan and a 2002 Pakistan Social Accounting Matrix as data
base, the simulations are conducted to measure the effects of domestic
agriculture trade liberalisation in isolation and in conjunction with changes in
the world economy. The novelty of this paper is that it introduces dynamics in
the Pakistani CGE model through capital accumulation. The results illuminate
the greater effectiveness of agriculture trade liberalisation in promoting the
overall growth process, given increased market access because of liberalisation
in the world economy.
Length: 21 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-38.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:38
Classification-JEL: O4, F15, F14
Keywords: International Trade, Growth, Dynamic CGE
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:38

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Attiya Y. Javid
Author-X-Name-First: Attiya Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Javid
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Stock Market Reaction to Catastrophic Shock: Evidence from Listed Pakistani Firms
Abstract: This study examines the effect of the earthquake of October 8, 2005 on
the price behaviour and activities of KSE. Sixty firms are selected from those
listed on Karachi Stock Exchange, and the results are informative about the
price behaviour of the stock market in response to unanticipated shock. The
results reveal the fact that the earthquake had both a positive and a negative
information content for KSE stocks. There is an increase in the return and
volume of the cement, steel, food, and banking sectors, which indicates that
investors have expectations of the upcoming demand of investment in these
sectors. Furthermore, there is no significant increase in the volatility, because
the investors seem certain about the future outlook and they take into account
the March 2005 market crash. These findings support the fact that the stock
market of Pakistan is reactive to unanticipated shocks and it takes no time to
impact the market activities. The evidence also suggests that the Pakistani stock
market is resilient, and that it recovered soon after the catastrophic shock.
Length: 31 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-37.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:37
Classification-JEL: G12, C11, C15
Keywords: Catastrophic Shock, Market Model, GARCH Specification, Average Return, Market Volume, Market Volatility
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:37

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Sajawal Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Sajawal
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Muhammad Arshad Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Arshad
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan
Abstract: This study is an attempt to analyse the determinants of private investment
in Pakistan over the period 1972-2005. The ARDL co-integration approach is
employed to check the existence of a long-run relationship as well as short-run
dynamics of investment. The results show that most traditional factors have little
or no impact on private investment. These results may support the idea that nontraditional
factors such as quality of institutions, governance, entrepreneurial
skill, etc., are prerequisites for private investment to flourish. We find partial
support for the accelerator principle and the crowding-out hypothesis in the case
of Pakistan. However, the hypothesis that the volume of the funds is as
important as the cost of the funds used in financing private investment and the
McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis are not verified in the case of Pakistan.
Length: 17 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-36.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:36
Classification-JEL: E22, O40, Z10, C20
Keywords: Private Investment, Growth, Crowding Out, Co-integration
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:36

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Wasim Shahid Malik
Author-X-Name-First: Wasim Shahid
Author-X-Name-Last: Malik
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Monetary Policy Objectives in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation
Abstract: The Taylor rule (1993) focuses only on two objectives: output and
inflation. In practice, the central bank’s loss function (especially in developing
countries) contains objectives other than these two, like the interest rate
smoothing, exchange rate stabilisation, etc. In this study, the monetary policy
reaction function has been estimated, including five objectives for monetary
policy as well as controlling for the effect of three other factors. Whereas the
results confirm the counter-cyclical response of monetary policy to the factors in
the loss function, the response of interest rate to changes in the foreign exchange
reserves and the government borrowing has been negative. Variance
decomposition shows that most of the variation in the interest rate is explained
by its own lagged values. Other variables, in explaining variation in the interest
rate, can be ranked as inflation, government borrowing, exchange rate, output
gap, trade deficit, and, finally, the foreign exchange reserves.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-35.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:35
Classification-JEL: E52, E52, E58
Keywords: Monetary Policy Objectives, Variance Decomposition, Call Money Rate
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:35

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Wasim Shahid Malik
Author-X-Name-First: Wasim Shahid
Author-X-Name-Last: Malik
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Ather Maqsood
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: Central Board of Revenue, Islamabad.
Title: The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan
Abstract: A widely agreed proposition in modern economics is that policy rules have 
greater advantage over discretion in improving economic performance. Simple monetary 
policy instrument rules are feasible options for developing countries lacking the 
pre-requisites for more sophisticated targeting rules. Notwithstanding the focus 
of modern literature on the issue, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has never declared 
itself to be following any type of rule. Surprisingly, this topic has remained out of 
research focus (among the academia and the practitioners) in Pakistan. This is the 
first attempt to deal with a rule-based monetary policy strategy in the case of the 
SBP. We have estimated the Taylor rule and simulated the economy using this rule as 
a monetary policy strategy. Our results indicate that the SBP has not been following 
the Taylor rule. In fact, the actual policy can be taken as an extreme deviation 
from it. On the other hand, counterfactual simulation confirms that macroeconomic 
performance can be improved, in terms of stability in inflation and output, when a 
simple Taylor rule is adopted. In this regard the parameter values (especially the 
inflation target) in the rule must be set according to the conditions of the economy 
under consideration rather than by relying on the ones suggested by the Taylor rule.
Length: 28 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-34.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:34
Classification-JEL: E47, E31, E52
Keywords: Taylor Rule, Macroeconomic Performance, Counterfactual Simulation
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:34

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Iftikhar Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Iftikhar
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Usman Mustafa
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Mustafa
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Mahmood Khalid
Author-X-Name-First: Mahmood
Author-X-Name-Last: Khalid
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: National Finance Commission Awards in Pakistan: A Historical Perspective
Abstract: This study explores the evolution of fiscal resource distribution in Pakistan. 
Pakistan is a federation comprising four provinces, federally-administered areas, and the 
Islamabad Capital Territory. Being a central type of government, most of the revenues are 
collected by the centre and then redistributed vertically between the federal and the 
provincial governments, and horizontally among the provinces. Provinces then also redistribute 
revenues among lower tiers of the government, through a revenue-sharing formula.
 A thorough look at the history indicates that this process has been complex and 
has a far-reaching impact. A less systematic approach has been adopted to decentralise 
the financial matters. Over time, the divisible pool has expanded due to heavy reliance 
on indirect taxes as well as improvement in the collection.  Population is the sole distribution 
criteria, adopted in all NFC awards from the divisible pool. This has raised friction among 
the provinces, necessitating inclusion of other potential variables evolved from 
international best practices. In addition to that, absence of technical experts and 
permanency of the NFC is another impediment. The NFC is supposed to provide the framework 
for amicable distribution of resources between the federal and the provincial governments 
for the joint goal of development and prosperity.
Length: 22 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-33.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:33
Classification-JEL: H71, H72, H73, H77
Keywords: NFC, Pakistan, Fiscal Federalism, Rule and Discretion, Political Economy, Population, Subventions, Doing the Business of Government
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:33

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Akram
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Akram
Author-Workplace-Name: International Islamic University, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Faheem Jehangir Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Faheem
Author-X-Name-Last: Jehangir Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Health Care Services and Government Spending in Pakistan
Abstract: The study has been carried out to measure the incidence of government
spending on health in Pakistan at provincial, both rural and urban level; using
the primary data of the Pakistan Social Standard Living Measures Survey
(PSLM), 2004-05, and by employing the three-step Benefit Incidence Approach
(BIA) methodology. The paper reviews the national policies emphasising health
services as well as the trend in access to and public sector spending on health
care facilities in Pakistan. The study explores the inequalities in resource
distribution and service provision against the government health expenditures.
The rural areas of Pakistan are the more disadvantaged in the provision of the
health care facilities. The expenditures in health sectors are overall regressive in
rural Pakistan as well as at provincial and regional levels. Mother and Child
subhead is regressive in Punjab and General Hospitals and Clinics are regressive
in all provinces. Only the Preventive Measures and health facilities sub-sector is
progressive in Pakistan. Public health expenditures are pro-rich in Pakistan.
Length: 25 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-32.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:32
Classification-JEL: H51, H53, I11, I18, I38, O18
Keywords: Health, Expenditure, Public Policy, Gini, Concentration Coefficient, Mother and Child, Preventive Measures, Hospital and Clinics
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:32

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: M. Idrees Khawaja
Author-X-Name-First: M. Idrees
Author-X-Name-Last: Khawaja
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan
Abstract: The study employs Girton and Roper (1977) measure of exchange market
pressure—sum of exchange rate depreciation and foreign reserves outflow, to
examine the interaction between exchange market pressure and monetary
variables, viz. domestic credit (Reserve Money) and interest rate. Evidence from
impulse response functions suggests that domestic credit has remained the
dominant tool of monetary policy for managing exchange market pressure. The
increase in domestic credit upon increase in exchange market pressure (during
1991–98) is imprudent. The result suggests that fiscal needs/growth objective
might have dominated the external account considerations during the span. Post
9/11 there is evidence of sterilised intervention in forex market. Interest rate has
also weakly served as the tool of monetary policy during the hay days of foreign
currency deposits (1991–98). The finding implies that for interest rate to work as
tool of monetary policy vis-a-vis exchange market pressure a reasonable degree
of capital mobility is called for.
Length: 24 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-31.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:31
Classification-JEL: E52, F31
Keywords: Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:31

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Faheem Jehangir Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Faheem
Author-X-Name-Last: Jehangir Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Yaser Javed
Author-X-Name-First: Yaser
Author-X-Name-Last: Javed
Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
Title: Delivering Access to Safe Drinking Water and Adequate Sanitation in Pakistan
Abstract: Provision of safe drinking water, adequate sanitation and personal
hygiene are vital for the sustainable environmental conditions and reducing the
incidence of diarrhoea, malaria, trachoma, hepatitis A & B and morbidity levels.
Not having access to water and sanitation is a courteous expression for a form of
deprivation that threatens life, destroys opportunity and undermines human
dignity. Thus, investing in the provision of safe water supply and adequate
sanitation is not only a development oriented strategy in itself, it can also yield
other socio-economic benefits in terms of improved health status, quality of
labour force and reduced burden-of-disease.
Water and Sanitation is the neglected sector in Pakistan. Most of the
households in Pakistan do not have access to safe drinking water and lack toilets
and adequate sanitation systems. These poor people, mostly living in rural areas
or urban slums, are not only deprived of financial resources, but they also lack
admittance to basic needs such as education, health, safe water supply and
environmental sanitation facilities. As of 2005, approximately 38.5 million
people lacked access to safe drinking water source and approximately 50.7
million people lacked access to improved sanitation in Pakistan. By year 2015, if
this trend continues, 52.8 million people will be deprived of safe drinking water
and 43.2 million people will have no access to adequate sanitation facilities in
Pakistan. It is not to calculate what percentages of population have access to a
particular service so far and how much numbers of beneficiaries will be added
by year 2015; it is to investigate that even if we meet the national and/or
regional targets in Pakistan, how much population will still be deprived of these
most basic human needs.
Length: 47 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-30.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:30
Classification-JEL: C12, C13, C92, E61, E62, G18, H54, I18, I38, O11, O18, C82
Keywords: Drinking Water, Sanitation, Solid Waste, Waste Water, Public Policy, Public Expenditure, Hygiene
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:30

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nadeem Ul Haque
Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem Ul
Author-X-Name-Last: Haque
Author-Workplace-Name: Formerly Vice-Chancellor Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Entrepreneurship in Pakistan
Abstract: Entrepreneurship is viewed by economists to be a combination of
innovation and risk taking. When such activity thrives, high growth rates are
achieved as well as opportunities offered to all segments of society, including
the poor. The latter benefit form growth and employment as well as through
opportunities for entrepreneurship.
In Pakistan innovation and risk taking is severely inhibited by the
intrusive role of government in the marketplace. From the early days of planning
when protection and subsidy polic ies determined winners in the market place,
entrepreneurship has been diverted to seeking government favours.
Government economic policy also seeks to promote growth through a
basically ‘mercantilist’ approach where domestic commerce through seriously
neglect is heavily regulated. This sector either employs most of the poor or
offers them entrepreneurial opportunities. Hence deregulating this sector could
be a priority in and anti-poor strategy.
The paper also argues that land distribution and city zoning and
management have also evolved to further reinforce the prevalent rent seeking
path to success. The result is that cities are by design not allowed to become
clusters of commerce that will be entrepreneur friendly. These clusters of dense
urban commerce are magnets of employment and opportunity for the poor.
To develop an entrepreneurship culture in the country, the system of
incentives (laws and policies) that promote rent seeking will have to be
dismantled. This paper presents an analysis of the state of entrepreneurship/rent
seeking prevailing in Pakistan. This analysis allows us to obtain and
understanding of the kinds of reforms (including legislative changes) that are
required to develop entrepreneurship.
Length: 54 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-29.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:29
Classification-JEL: M13
Keywords: Entrepreneurship, New Firm, Startups
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:29

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Uzma Zia
Author-X-Name-First: Uzma
Author-X-Name-Last: Zia
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: International Competitiveness—Where Pakistan Stands?
Abstract: The concept of competitiveness has been widely accepted and has
become a part of discussion in world-wide forums. Today global economy
cannot be explained in the same manner as it was a few decades ago. Improved
competitiveness of economies is a need of the day and ability to compete in the
world market is of major concern.
This paper attempts to assess the position of Pakistan in the International
Competitiveness. As a survey paper, the concept, definition and the
measurement of competitiveness have been analysed further to assess Pakistan’s
position in the region. Competitiveness is linked with export performance of
other trading and non trading countries. Pakistan’s export performance is
analysed in this context. Lessons for Pakistan have been drawn on the basis of
experiences of emerging economies.
It has been concluded that countries can strengthen their export markets
with the passage of time. They need to improve the governance as well as
technological progress to increase high-tech exports. Developing countries like
Pakistan start from low technology and with passage of time shift to improved
technologies. Technology-based activities help improving export performance
that brings competitiveness of a country. The paper also suggests a model to
government of Pakistan which describes that high technology exports will be a
result of extensive Research and Development (R&D) using human capital as an
investment in the country. The success depends upon the combined efforts of the
government, individuals and business initiatives both in public and private
sectors.
Length: 20 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-28.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:28
Classification-JEL: O33
Keywords: Competitiveness, Growth Performance
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:28

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Tariq Mahmood
Author-X-Name-First: Tariq
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahmood
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Ejaz Ghani
Author-X-Name-First: Ejaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghani
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Musleh-ud Din
Author-X-Name-First: Musleh-ud
Author-X-Name-Last: Din
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Efficiency of Large Scale Manufacturing in Pakistan: A Production Frontier Approach
Abstract: This paper examines the efficiency of the large scale manufacturing
sector of Pakistan using the stochastic production frontier approach. A stochastic
production frontier is estimated for two periods—1995-96 and 2000-01—for
101 industries at the 5-digit PSIC. The results show that there has been some
improvement in the efficiency of the large scale manufacturing sector, though
the magnitude of improvement remains small. The results are mixed at the
disaggregated level: whereas a majority of industrial groups have gained in
terms of technical efficiency, some industries have shown deterioration in their
efficiency levels.
Length: 15 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-27.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:27
Classification-JEL: D24, L6, O14, P27
Keywords: Manufacturing Industries, Technical Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:27

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nadeem Ul Haque
Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem Ul
Author-X-Name-Last: Haque
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: M. Ali Kemal
Author-X-Name-First: M. Ali
Author-X-Name-Last: Kemal
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Impact of Export Subsidies on Pakistan’s Exports
Abstract: Throughout Pakistan’s history, policy has sought to promote exports
through government support and incentives. The government machinery is
geared to export promotion especially through direct and indirect subsidies.
Surprisingly, these policies have been continued without serious examination.
This paper makes a first attempt to evaluate these policies by estimating the
impact of two such schemes—export financing and rebate/refund schemes—on
export performance. Our analysis shows that, over the long run, the export
financing scheme had a negative effect on exports while the rebate/refund
scheme affected exports insignificantly. Subsidy schemes clearly do not seem to
work, yet they have been retained for many years.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-26.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:26
Classification-JEL: C32; F13; F14; F31
Keywords: Rebate, Duty Drawback, Export Financing, Exports, Trade, Exchange Rate, Co-integration, Vector Error Correction, Pakistan
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:26

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Afia Malik
Author-X-Name-First: Afia
Author-X-Name-Last: Malik
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Effectiveness of Regulatory Structure in the Power Sector of Pakistan
Abstract: This paper is an attempt to study the regulatory environment in the
electricity sector of Pakistan. NEPRA, a regulatory authority was formed in
1997 to protect consumer interests in the area of electricity provision, and to
ensure an efficient and competitive environment for the electricity generators
and distributors, but it has so far not been able to achieve anything. The power
sector (dominated by WAPDA and KESC) is still affected by institutional and
organisational weaknesses, with inefficient and non-optimal tariffs, high line
losses, and high level of corruption. It has been found weak administrative
governance in NEPRA in the form of lack of autonomy, resulting in the overall
institutional inability to carry out the desired functions effectively. In addition,
NEPRA is lacked in professional expertise to supervise and control the power
sector and establish a rational and equitable pricing regime.
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-25.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:25
Classification-JEL: G38, L33, L43, L51, Q48
Keywords: Electricity, NEPRA, Pakistan, Reforms, Regulation
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:25

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Nadeem Ul Haque
Author-X-Name-First: Nadeem Ul
Author-X-Name-Last: Haque
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Why Civil Service Reforms Do Not Work
Abstract: Public sector reform (PSR) efforts in developing countries have been less
than successful in the past. Motivated by budgetary considerations, they have
focused on downsizing and procedural changes without radically altering the
outmoded incentive system, which, in many countries, is now characterised by
declining real wages, wage compression, and a non-merit promotion and reward
system. Using results from the incentives literature, this paper argues that, for a
reform effort to succeed, public sector human resource management (HRM) will
have to be reformed at an early stage to establish productivity incentives in the
public sector. These will include introducing substantial autonomy to
organisations in their work, incentive schemes, and HRM along the lines of the
now well-accepted concept of central bank independence.
Past PSR efforts have also attempted to conduct a unified reform effort
led centrally by the ministry of finance. A continuous process like PSR—spread
out over a considerable period and involving many different people and
organisations—might need to build in decentralisation, local leadership and
local incentives, and HRM.
PSR must be based on the recognition that people are at the heart of
public service. As a result, managing human resources must be at the centre of
any effort. The people who are at the center of this change can either be its
architects and beneficiaries or its losers and therefore opponents of change.
Design and implementation of reforms must, therefore, be sensitive to this
important fact. It is essential that the reform is led by individuals at the
organisation level who understand the vision as well as process of change.
Governments must empower such leadership to guide, initiate, innovate, and
manage change.
Length: 32 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-24.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:24
Classification-JEL: J21, J31
Keywords: Civil Services, Reforms
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:24

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Sajawal Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Sajawal
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: X-efficiency, Scale Economies, Technological Progress and Competition: A Case of Banking Sector in Pakistan
Abstract: This study aims at empirical investigation of the x-efficiency, scale
economies, and technological progress of commercial banks operating in
Pakistan using balance panel data for 29 banks. As banking sector efficiency is
considered as a precondition for macroeconomic stability, monetary policy
execution, and economic growth. We also make efficiency comparisons between
the domestic and foreign banks and big banks. Our results indicate that the
domestic banks operating in Pakistan are relatively less efficient than their
foreign counterparts for the period 2000-05. The scale economies for small
banks, especially foreign banks are higher. Our results suggest the existence of
technological progress for all groups of banks for the year 2000 and onward. It
was lowest for big banks in 2000 and highest for foreign banks in 2005. Again,
technological progress is lower for domestic banks relative to foreign banks.
The results show also that the market share of big five banks are
declining over the period but average interest spread shows fluctuations. The
main conclusions that can be drawn from these results are that mergers are more
likely to take place, especially in small banks. If the mergers do take place
between small domestic banks and foreign banks, these will reduce cost due to
scale economies as well as x-efficiency (because foreign banks are x-efficient
relative to small domestic banks). Even if mergers do take place between small
and big banks, cost will reduce without conferring any monopolistic power to
these banks. This will also help in stability of the financial sector, which is an
important concern of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). So the best policy
option for SBP is to encourage mergers, while keeping a check on interest
spread, so that the benefits from reduction in cost due to mergers are passed on
to depositors and borrowers.
Length: 16 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/working%20paper-23.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:23
Classification-JEL: G14, G18, G21
Keywords: X-efficiency, Scale Economies, Technological Progress, Competition, Spread
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:23

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Idrees Khawaja
Author-X-Name-First: Idrees
Author-X-Name-Last: Khawaja
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Author-Name: Musleh-ud Din
Author-X-Name-First: Musleh-ud
Author-X-Name-Last: Din
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Title: Determinants of Interest Spread in Pakistan
Abstract: Interest spread of the Pakistan’s banking industry has been on the rise for
the last two years. The increase in interest spread discourages savings and
investments on the one hand, and raises concerns on the effectiveness of bank
lending channel of monetary policy on the other. This study examines the
determinants of interest spread in Pakistan using panel data of 29 banks. The
results show that inelasticity of deposit supply is a major determinant of interest
spread whereas industry concentration has no significant influence on interest
spread. One reason for inelasticity of deposits supply to the banks is the absence
of alternate options for the savers. The on-going merger wave in the banking
industry will further limit the options for the savers. Given the adverse
implications of banking mergers for a competitive environment, we argue that to
maintain a reasonably competitive environment, merger proposals may be
subjected to review by an antitrust authority with the central bank retaining the
veto over merger approval.
Length: 18 pages
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-22.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:22
Classification-JEL: G21, E43, G34
Keywords: Banks, Determination of Interest Rates, Mergers, Acquisitions
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:22

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Eatzaz Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Eatzaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
Author-Name: Abdul Sattar
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Sattar
Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry of Finance, Islamabad
Title: Awareness and the Demand of Safe Drinking Water Practices
Abstract: The demand for environmental goods is often low in developing
countries. The major causes are awareness regarding the contamination of water
and poverty, but less attention has been paid to the former reason. We use a
household survey from Hyderabad city and estimate the contribution of
awareness and income on households’ water purification behaviour. The study
finds out that measures of awareness such as different level of schooling of
decision-makers and household heads and their exposure to mass media have
statistically significant effects on home purification methods for drinking water,
while other members of households can effect this behaviour only when they get
higher levels of schooling.
Length: 21 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-21.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:21
Classification-JEL: D12, D13, D31, Q21, Q25, Q51, R21
Keywords: Demand, Awareness, Safe Drinking Water, Logit Model, Probit Model
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:21

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Asma Hyder
Author-X-Name-First: Asma
Author-X-Name-Last: Hyder
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Title: Preference for Public Sector Jobs and Wait Unemployment: A Micro Data Analysis
Abstract: This paper exploits responses on the stated preferences for public sector
jobs among a sample of unemployed in Pakistan to inform on the existence of
public sector job queues. The empirical approach allowed job preference to
influence unemployment duration. The potential wage advantage an
unemployed individual would enjoy in a public sector job was found to exert no
independent influence on the stated preference indicating that fringe benefits and
work conditions are perhaps more important considerations. The stated
preference for a public sector job was found to be associated with higher
uncompleted durations. The estimated effect suggests that, on average and
controlling for education and other characteristics, those unemployed who stated
a preference for public sector jobs had higher uncompleted durations of between
four and six months. This finding was taken to confirm that there are long
queues for public sector jobs in Pakistan.
Length: 18 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/working%20paper-20.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:20
Classification-JEL: J31, J64
Keywords: Wage Differentials, Wage Structure, Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:20

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Arshad Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Arshad Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Author-Name: Abdul Qayyum
Author-X-Name-First: Abdul
Author-X-Name-Last: Qayyum
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Title: Trade Liberalisation, Financial Development and Economic Growth
Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade and financial
liberalisation on economic growth in Pakistan using annual observations over
the period 1961-2005. The analysis is based on the bound testing approach of
cointegration advanced by Pesaran, et al. (2001). The empirical findings suggest
that both trade and financial policies play an important role in enhancing
economic growth in Pakistan in the long-run. However, the short-run responses
of the real deposit rate and trade policy variables are very low, suggesting
further acceleration of the reform process. The feedback coefficient suggests a
very slow rate of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The estimated
equation remains stable over the period of study as indicated by CUSUM and
CUSUMQ stability tests.
Length: 34 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-19.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:19
Classification-JEL: F43, G10, O10, C22
Keywords: Trade Liberalisation, Financial Development, Economic Growth, Bound Test
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:19

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Arshad Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Arshad Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Title: Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Role of Domestic Financial Sector
Abstract: Recent theoretical and empirical literature suggests that foreign direct
investment (FDI) exerted positive impact on economic growth through the
process of technological diffusion. The literature also suggests that the
development of the domestic financial system of the host country is an important
pre-condition for FDI to have a positive impact on economic growth. A welldeveloped
domestic financial sector enhances efficient allocation of financial
resources and improves the absorptive capacity of a country with respect to FDI
inflows. Particularly, a more developed financial system positively contributes
to the process of technological diffusion associated with foreign direct
investment. In this study, we examine the link between FDI, domestic financial
sector, and economic growth for Pakistan over the period 1972–2005. Empirical
analysis is based on the bound testing approach of cointegration advanced by
Pesaran, et al. (2001). The results suggest that FDI inflows exerted positive
impact on economic growth in the short-run and the long-run if the domestic
financial system has achieved a certain minimum-level development. The results
further suggest that better domestic financial conditions not only attract foreign
companies to invest in Pakistan, but also allow maximising the benefits of
foreign investment
Length: 47 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20paper/Working%20paper%2018.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:18
Classification-JEL: F21, F36, F43, O16
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Sector Development, Economic Growth, Technology Spillovers
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:18

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Asma Hyder
Author-X-Name-First: Asma
Author-X-Name-Last: Hyder
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Title: Wage Differentials, Rate of Return to Education, and Occupational Wage Share in the Labour Market of Pakistan
Abstract: This paper examines the magnitude of public/private wage differentials in
Pakistan using data drawn from the 2001-02 Labour Force Survey. Pakistan
Labour Force Survey is a nationwide survey containing micro data from all over
the country containing demographic and employment information. As in many
other countries, public sector workers in Pakistan tend to have higher average
pay and educational levels as compared to their private sector counterparts.
First, this paper presents the inter-sectoral earning equations for the three main
sectors of the economy, i.e., public, private, and state-owned enterprises. These
results are further decomposed into “treatment” and “endowment effect”. To
examine the role of human capital in wage gap, the rate of return to different
levels of schooling is calculated. These rates of return to education may be
important for policy formulation. The relative earning share is also worked out
to look into the distribution of wages across the occupational categories. The
earning equations are estimated with and without correction for selectivity,
which is also the main objective of the study, i.e., to find out if any non-random
selection is taking place within these three sectors of employment
Length: 20 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper-17.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:17
Classification-JEL: J32, J45, J24
Keywords: Wage Differentials, Rate of Return to Education, Public Sector Labour Markets
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:17

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ali Khan
Author-X-Name-First: M.
Author-X-Name-Last:  Ali Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA
Title: The Harris-Todaro Hypothesis
Abstract: The Harris-Todaro hypothesis replaces the equality of wages by the
equality of ‘expected’ wages as the basic equilibrium condition in a segmented
but homogeneous labour market, and in so doing it generates an equilibrium
level of urban unemployment when a mechanism for the determination of urban
wages is specified. This article reviews work in which the Harris-Todaro
hypothesis is embedded in canonical models of trade theory in order to
investigate a variety of issues in development economics. These include the
desirability (or the lack thereof) of foreign investment, the complications of an
informal sector, and the presence of clearly identifiable ethnic groups
Length: 11 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper%20No.%2016.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:16
Classification-JEL: D00
Keywords: Harris-Todaro, Wages, Labour Economics, Labour Market, Rural to Urban Migration
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:16

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ali Khan
Author-X-Name-First: M.
Author-X-Name-Last:  Ali Khan
Author-Workplace-Name: The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA
Title: Perfect Competition
Abstract: In his 1987 entry on ‘Perfect Competition’ in The New Palgrave, the
author reviewed the question of the perfectness of perfect competition, and gave
four alternative formalisations rooted in the so-called Arrow-Debreu-Mckenzie
model. That entry is now updated for the second edition to include work done on
the subject during the last twenty years. A fresh assessment of this literature is
offered, one that emphasises the independence assumption whereby individual
agents are not related except through the price system. And it highlights a
‘linguistic turn’ whereby Hayek’s two fundamental papers on ‘division of
knowledge’ are seen to have devastating consequences for this research
programme
Length: 21 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper%20No.%2015.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:15
Classification-JEL: D00
Keywords: Allocation of Resources, Perfect Competition, Exchange Economy
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:15

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Attiya Y. Javed
Author-X-Name-First: Attiya Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Javed
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Author-Name: Robina Iqbal
Author-X-Name-First: Robina
Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal
Author-Workplace-Name: Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
Title: The Relationship between Corporate Governance Indicators and Firm Value: A Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange
Abstract: We investigated whether differences in quality of firm-level corporate
governance can explain the firm-level performance in a cross-section of
companies listed at Karachi Stock Exchange. Therefore, we analysed the
relationship between firm-level value as measured by Tobin’s Q and total
Corporate Governance Index (CGI) and three sub-indices: Board, Shareholdings
and Ownership, and Disclosures and Transparency for a sample of 50 firms. The
results indicate that corporate governance does matter in Pakistan. However, not
all elements of governance are important. The board composition and ownership
and shareholdings enhance firm performance, whereas disclosure and
transparency has no significant effect on firm performance. We point out that
those adequate firm-level governance standards can not replace the solidity of
the firm. The low production and bad management practices
Length: 22 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper%20No.%2014.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:14
Classification-JEL: G12, G34, G38
Keywords: Corporate Governance, Firm Performance, Tobin’s Q, Agency Problem, Board Size, Shareholdings, Disclosures, Leverage, Code of Corporate Governance
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:14

Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ali Kemal
Author-X-Name-First: M.
Author-X-Name-Last:  Ali Kemal
Author-Workplace-Name: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
Title: A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan: Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy
Abstract: Rise in the underground economy creates problems for the policy-makers
to formulate economic policies, especially the monetary and fiscal policies. It is
found that if there was no tax evasion, budgets balance might have been zero
and positive for some years and we would not have needed to borrow as much
as we had borrowed. It is concluded that the impact of the underground
economy is significant to the movements of the formal economy, but the impact
of formal economy is insignificant in explaining the movements in the
underground economy. In the long run, underground economy and official
economy are positively associated. It is estimated that the underground economy
ranges between Rs 2.91 trillion and Rs 3.34 trillion (54.6 percent of GDP to 62.8
percent of GDP respectively) in 2005 and tax evasion ranges between Rs 302
billion and Rs 347 billion (5.7 percent of GDP to 6.5 percent of GDP
respectively) in 2005. Underground economy and tax evasion were increasing
very rapidly in the early 1980s but the rate of increase accelerated in the 1990s.
It declined in 1999, but reverted to an increasing trend until 2003. It declined
again in 2004 and 2005
Length: 30 pages.
Creation-Date: 2007
File-URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/Working%20Paper%20No.%2013.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: First Version, 2007
Number: 2007:13
Classification-JEL: E26, H26
Keywords: Underground Economy, Tax Evasion
Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:13